What I believe will be the farewell Nielsen poll for the Fairfax papers shows no dividend to Tony Abbott of the carbon tax repeal or (so far) the MH17 response, with Labor’s lead up from 53-47 at last month’s poll to 54-46. The poll of 1400 respondents was conducted from Thursday to Sunday, from which you can draw your own conclusions about its likely responsiveness to what’s occurred over that time. Labor is up three points on the primary vote to 40%, with the Coalition steady at 39%, the Greens down one to 12% and Palmer United steady on 5%. However, Tony Abbott’s personal ratings have improved: his approval is up three to 38% with disapproval down four to 56%, the gap on preferred prime minister narrows from 47-40 to 46-41, and while Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 41% and up three on disapproval to 44%. Even more entertainingly, there are personal ratings for Clive Palmer (approval 37%, disapproval 51%) and a preferred treasurer poll (Joe Hockey’s lead narrowing from 51-34 in a poll conducted I-don’t-know-how-long-ago to 42-42 now.
UPDATE: Phil Coorey in the Financial Review relates results on the leaders’ personal characteristics; more from Michelle Grattan at The Conversation.
If the Libs can’t get a bounce in the polls from the MH17 situation what hope have they? I’d be very nervous if I was a Lib backbencher.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/poll_reveals_tony_abbott_trust_and_7OwhmWzNvTsNnjVDWCM6PN
[Poll reveals Tony Abbott’s trust and competence deficit
PUBLISHED: 0 hour 16 MINUTES AGO | UPDATE: 0 hour 16 MINUTES AGO
Phillip Coorey Chief political correspondent
The repeal of the carbon tax has failed to boost the federal government’s fortunes, with the latest poll showing Labor’s lead firming and Prime Minister Tony Abbott with a trust and competence deficit rivalling that of Julia Gillard at her nadir.
And Joe Hockey’s standing has slumped, with the poll showing him falling following his budget, to be level with Labor rival Chris Bowen as the nation’s preferred treasurer.]
http://theconversation.com/abbott-has-big-trust-deficit-poll-29454
[Michelle Grattan
21 July 2014, 12.09am AEST
Abbott has big “trust deficit”: poll]
More AFR articles, but these are paywalled. The Treasurer article will be exclusive to the AFR, going by earlier polls. Check the hard copy in the morning.
http://www.afr.com/Page/Uuid/cfc644c4-0fc0-11e4-8c58-0bc4b4746537
[Laura Tingle
Poll reveals toll on Tony Abbott as voters cite weak leadership
PUBLISHED: 0 hour 2 MINUTES AGO | UPDATE: 0 hour 0 MINUTES AGO
Statistics can sound much more polite than words; small comfort however for the Prime Minister because when you translate the latest Nielsen poll into words, it seems voters think him an untrustworthy, unimaginative, incompetent dunderhead.]
http://www.afr.com/Page/Uuid/ca6732ae-0fc0-11e4-8c58-0bc4b4746537
[Hockey, Bowen tie in post-budget standings
PUBLISHED: 0 hour 1 MINUTES AGO | UPDATE: 0 hour 1 MINUTES AGO
Joe Hockey’s standing has slumped in the wake of the federal budget, with the latest poll showing him level-pegging with Labor rival Chris Bowen as the nation’s preferred treasurer.]
Turns out voters do get it right – eventually:
[it seems voters think him an untrustworthy, unimaginative, incompetent dunderhead.]
😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆
That rating for Hockey is most instructive. It’s a dead hear between him and someone 90% of punters haven’t heard of.
This government could destroy the popular reputation the LNP enjoy as economic managers : they don’t look remotely competent, they just look nasty.
Charles Stross posted the following link on Twitter: The Sci-Fi Writers’ War. “They predicted and possibly inspired the conflict in the Ukraine, and now they’re fighting it.”
William.
It is all too much. Your apostrophes have run amok.
‘responsiveness to what’s occurred over’
[After his broken election commitments Abbott is seen as trustworthy by 35%, which is fewer than Julia Gillard’s 36% in April 2013 after she broke her carbon tax promise, and compares with 45% who regard Bill Shorten as trustworthy.]
Lol!
Read that and WEEP, LNP.
I don’t know if Tony Abbott and the Government will get a bounce out of what’s happened over the last few days. However, if there is a bounce I doubt we would see it in this poll. We might need to wait a little longer.
Say they do get a bounce though that puts them back in the lead (just). Would Abbott then be tempted to pull a trigger on a DD so he can get some of his blocked legislation through? And could that backfire on him (Labor can go to the election spelling out exactly what a Liberal victory means: cuts to eduction, health, pensions, science, etc).
Dan Gulberry.
A lovely row of clowns.
This is also good:
[Apart from on trustworthiness, Abbott also trailed Shorten on being competent (52-57%), open to ideas (38-58%), and having a firm grasp on social policy (34-58%).]
In short: an incompetent clueless liar.
“untrustworthy, unimaginative, incompetent dunderhead”
Why are people so unkind?
Don’t really follow, CW.
CW at 6: It’s a contraction. “What has” > “what’s” – perfectly valid apostrophe.
[In short: an incompetent clueless liar.]
I will go with that.
jules –
We cannot know anything for sure.
However, my assessment of the information I’ve seen from the journalists at the Guardian, the BBC, the ABC, analysis in Crikey, etc of the developments in Ukraine lead me to believe that Russia has played a big role in fomenting the conflict that now grips Ukraine.
That I admit to possibly being wrong is simply admission of the fact that I necessarily rely on other people (who may be unreliable) to keep me informed, and my own (quite possibly unreliable) reasoning to make my best guess as to what “the truth” is.
But I still have come to a judgment on the situation, as we all do about many things in life with imperfect information.
What a pathetic thing to say.
Oh Dear, late night apostrophe police are on patrol. 🙁
Okay.
I was a trifle concerned.
Perhaps.
Fulvio!
There is something we can know for sure.
If the footage is to be believed. Looks believable to me.
That the locals on the scene are doing their utmost, heartbreaking best in searching for and recovering whatever they may.
Whatever those villages are, Australia should and must recognise them.
[7
lefty e
>After his broken election commitments Abbott is seen as trustworthy by 35%, which is fewer than Julia Gillard’s 36% in April 2013 after she broke her carbon tax promise,…
Lol!
Read that and WEEP, LNP.]
I am actually laughing hard as I read it.
Not half as hard as Gillard must be. 😀 😀 😀
Ok, so polls this far from an election don’t mean much.
But a trend this wide, and this sustained? I wonder what the hard core psephologists think? Personally I wouldn’t think its cause to jump for joy, but the longer this continues the more damage it does. The Liberal apologists in the community are in hiding. People are sitting up and thinking. Its going to be hard to convince people that they made a mistake at the ballot box, but the longer this goes on the harder its going to be for the Liberals to use their media advantage. People are going to stop listening and they’re going to stop listening to their loud mouth lizard brained mates and they’re going to stop listening to the Murdoch media.
cw
[A lovely row of clowns.]
The LNP front bench?
Certainly.
Dan G.
If you could make the emoticons a little more, ummh, animated?
Difficult. I understand.
It’s not up to me. These are the emoticons that are “native” to the Crikey blogs.
Even if William wanted to have more animated ones, I doubt whether he could. You’d need to get them set up by the Crikey tech-heads.
Mark Kenny thinks Abbott’s majority position on the vision for Australia’s future is good for him. I can’t help but wonder if people are just saying, “I know what he stands for… and I don’t like it.”
Sorry William for beimg off topic but if anyone would like to start the day off with a good laugh try try this
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHWUUiC_lMA
Hope your up on your scottish brogue
Sky news reporter rifling through someone’s luggage from MH17
http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/5603622?&ncid=tweetlnkushpmg00000067
The Nielson Poll is good news over all but is a bit weird in some of the responses.
“However, Mr Abbott was way ahead of Mr Shorten on the issue of ”vision for Australia’s future”, leading 54 to 38 per cent.”
The destruction of Medicare and the health system in general; attacking Education: destroying the hopes of young Australians: Selling out the future of the Australian sense of a fair go. This maybe Abbott’s vision, it is certainly not mine
From the Fairfax Press (What will the Murdock Morons say)
Mr Abbott’s assured handling of the atrocity in the hours since has been widely commended but has not been reflected in this poll result.
All he has done is open his big yap.
In any other PM would offer help and and comfort to the families of the victims; would send experts to aid in the recovery of the bodies and evidence of what happened what has Abbott done, Stuff All.
The Fairfax-Nielsen poll suggests voters have yet to factor in Mr Abbott’s response to MH17. His approval and disapproval figures from people surveyed on Thursday – before the tragedy – are virtually identical to those surveyed on Friday and Saturday after Mr Abbott criticised Russia.
Seems the Aussie pubic are not as stupid as the MSM R’s lickers
Team Abbott off to their parliamentary break with a dismal Neislen poll and a fair rogering for their QLD colleagues in Stafford on Saturday.
Good.
I look forward to reading Bushfire bill’s and other more articulate poster s views
WP – I am happy to just say *YAY* for the two results I have mentioned. Ok it is barracking but my impression is that is a fairly common occurance on this site. Agree lets leave the critiques to the more articulate.
The press continue to applaud the PM’s “leadership” over the plane crash and wonder why it hasn’t translated into a swing in the Government’s favour.
Last night on 60 Minutes his “leadership” came across to me as an over-eager and cringeworthy form of ambulance-chasing.
Later poll results might prove me wrong, but it’s conceivable that people are thinking something like. “when we are looking for an explanation of why our medical bills and kids’ uni fees have to up, this bloke is invisible, but when something like plane crash happens, he’s everywhere”.
And all that huffing and puffing about the last plane crash and all the $$$ spent on looking for it with no result probably hasn’t added much to his credibility in terms of “leadership” in these sorts of situations. Howard built up a lot of credibility as a leader by standing tough on issues such as gun law reform, the GST, the waterfront dispute and the Tampa incident. The one comparable thing that the Abbott Government has done – Operational Sovereign Borders – hasn’t done much for the Government’s credibility yet because they continue to refuse to tell anyone what they’ve done.
Abbott and those who advise him are embarrassingly naive and complacent. They seemed to truly believe that they all they had to do was to get into government, wave a magic wand, and the budget deficit would be fixed. And, likewise, that any time some big, bad thing happened on the world stage, Tony just had to jump in front of the cameras and sound serious and prime ministerial
and everyone would immediately recognize him as John Howard reborn.
John Howard and his team (like Hawke and Keating and their teams) put a lot of thought and work into sustaining their success. Howard was also incredibly lucky with economic circumstances.
I keep waiting to see Abbott and his lot get with the program. Still no signs of it. They don’t even seem to believe in themselves: last week Pyne was crowing at Shorten that the latter’s promise to bring back an ETS would cost him the next election. Obviously this means that Pyne, at least, was convinced that as Labor win was otherwise all but certain (showing some good judgement, I guess).
So the 54-46 result doesn’t seem all that surprising to me.
After all that “tough guy” posturing, has Abbott even spoken to Putin about MH17?
In contrast, the Dutch PM Mark Rutte has exchanged a few harsh words with Putin, giving him a piece of his mind.
Just because Australians only came second in the list of casualties doesn’t make it any less of a tragedy.
@33
Looks like the same tough guy posturing with Indonesian’s SBY. All the posturing but in the end no tough talk from Abbott.
Nett_NEWS++™ by @Otiose94 http://bit.ly/1nAtjp1 http://bit.ly/1dMcaGz
Good Morning
“@Simon_Cullen: The Prime Minister’s office says Tony Abbott spoke with the Russian President overnight re Malaysia Airlines tragedy #MH17”
[“However, Mr Abbott was way ahead of Mr Shorten on the issue of ”vision for Australia’s future”, leading 54 to 38 per cent.”]
Just because people realise Abbott has a vision for the future does not mean they agree with it. Beggars on the streets is a vision.
On the polling I think a Paul Keating quote applies
[A beautiful set of numbers]
“However, Mr Abbott was way ahead of Mr Shorten on the issue of ”vision for Australia’s future”, leading 54 to 38 per cent.”
A meaningless poll question with a meaningless result, just like most of the other comparisons being asked.
Who sits over their breakfast cereal think ” what is Abbotts vision or what is Bills vision”
Does he have a vision is one question. Do we like the vision is another.
CW, William’s apostrophes are perfect, as usual.
Really, apostrophes aren’t that hard, as long as you grasp that sometimes they are used to indicate possession and sometimes for contractions. If only people could get their heads around it’s and its, their, they’re and there, your and you’re and who’s and whose, irritating errors would almost disappear.
Yes, I know I’m being a pedant. I can tolerate mistakes, but I get annoyed by people who claim (wrongly) they’ve found mistakes because their knowledge of puncutation or grammar is so superficial.
Still, I should not be grumpy this morning. Laura Tingle has made my day.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
I wonder what the “Infrastructure PM” thinks about this.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/green-square-traffic-problems-20140720-zu832.html
And most of the budget measures haven’t yet been felt in actuality.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/hostile-climate-for-pm-despite-repeal-of-tax-20140720-3c9do.html
How the rapacious banks did over this government.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/dumping-of-future-of-financial-advice-reforms-shows-how-bank-lobbyists-pervert-democracy-20140720-zv140.html
Nice work from Katy Jackson, Abbott’s hero unionist.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/peter-maccallum-scientists-miss-out-on-millions-as-hsu-leader-kathy-jackson-cuts-deal-20140720-zuodr.html
Mark Latham joins John Faulkner in an effort to reform the ALP.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/peter-maccallum-scientists-miss-out-on-millions-as-hsu-leader-kathy-jackson-cuts-deal-20140720-zuodr.html
The worst three things the Liberals did yesterday.
http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/07/21/the-worst-three-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-5/
Can-Do’s hubris gets much of the blame for the Stafford rout.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/byelection-disaster-historian-says-campbell-newmans-hubris-could-see-him-lose-his-seat-20140720-zuyof.html
The last paragraph of Michael Gordon’s take on the Nielsen Poll hold the key.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/tony-abbott-must-regain-voters-trust-bill-shorten-needs-strength-20140720-3c9dp.html
This is what Laura Tingle gets from the poll – “Statistics can sound much more polite than words; small comfort however for the Prime Minister because when you translate the latest Nielsen poll into words, it seems voters think him an untrustworthy, unimaginative, incompetent dunderhead.
How the occupation of Gaza corrupts the occupier.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/20/gaza-occupation-occupier-israelis-peace
Come on Cormann, Brandis, etc, show us what you’re made of and make an example of these mongrels.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/ord-minnett-used-loophole-to-reap-fees-otherwise-banned-under-fofa-rules-20140720-zuyhf.html
The damage done by (British) boarding schools. Horrible!
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jul/20/damage-boarding-school-sexual-abuse-children
Lifting the lid on Bond University, sexual abuse and cover ups.
http://www.independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/trapped-inside-part-2-bond-university-exposed,6689
Fairfax doesn’t have any of today’s cartoons up yet. Bummer!
David Rowe on MH17 – quite disturbing.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
[Later poll results might prove me wrong, but it’s conceivable that people are thinking something like. “when we are looking for an explanation of why our medical bills and kids’ uni fees have to up, this bloke is invisible, but when something like plane crash happens, he’s everywhere”. ]
This precisely sums up my view of him. And I like the ambulance chasing reference. So true. The other point to make is that his ambulance chasing wouldn’t be so crass if he sounded reassuring and spoke with a confidence about the matter that lends itself to him actually taking it seriously as an issue rather than viewing it just as an opportunity for political capital.
And from the Land of the Free –
John Kerry fires back at FoxNews.
http://crooksandliars.com/2014/07/kerry-shuts-foxs-wallace-over-obama-admin
The SCOTUS – Born of corruption?
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/07/20/1312504/-Born-of-corruption-why-would-anyone-expect-this-SCOTUS-majority-to-be-anything-but-corrupt
Community involvement South Carolina style.
http://news.yahoo.com/kkk-gives-goodie-bags-recruit-knights-140756223.html
FoxNews shitheads at their very best.
http://crooksandliars.com/2014/07/rich-lowry-boys-killed-israelis-gaza-beach
Pastoral policing Florida style.
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2014/07/20/fl-homicide-cop-arrested-for-allegedly-having-sex-with-teen-runaway-he-took-into-his-home/
Home sexual forensics Michigan style.
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2014/07/20/michigan-woman-shoots-lover-because-he-didnt-produce-enough-ejclte-during-sex/
Morning bludgers
Meher baba
[Last night on 60 Minutes his “leadership” came across to me as an over-eager and cringeworthy form of ambulance-chasing.]
Spot on.
I recorded 60 minutes in advance, as i wished to see the evidence relied upon to convict Baden Clay. Obviously Abbott’s interview at the beginning of the program was a late inclusion. My OH who observes politics from afar, thought Abbotf is overreaching again, much like he did with the missing plane.
Seems like the public has moved on from the razzamatazz of the election campaign but Abbott hasn’t been able to let go of it.
The way he made that speech – tired, bloody, but triumphant etc. – announcing the death of the Carbon Tax, you’d have thought the masses had been milling and thronging in the streets just waiting for the news, so they could hoist him on their shoulders and march him down Northbourne Avenue in triumph.
All they saw was a sad little man with a big swagger telegraphing his punches and hitting his cue marks.
“If I do this then they’ll think that.” Painting by numbers.
It seems that when you’re so distrusted and disliked as Abbott is, everything is refracted through that prism. For a brief, shining moment, the punters are letting themselves be fooled.
If Abbott had gotten on better with Putin at the couple of functions they attended together, then maybe he might have scored a little more co-operation from him.
If he hadn’t cringeingly crawled to Shinzo Abe, praising the bravery and honour of Japanese servicemen, who elsewhere had shown how to murder millions in most dishonourable ways, then perhaps we might have given him a chance to make his case.
But most just realize Abbott’s a thug, choking on his words, too scared to let a stray syllable out of his mouth, lest someone do to him what he and his cronies spent three years doing to Julia Gillard.
Abbott’s just another toadying thug who’s going to continue gutting the Australian polity until it’s either ruined or he is. A regulation kiss-up/kick-down bully. A national tragedy won’t save him, because he’s an even bigger one.
Photoshopped image of Abbott.
https://mobile.twitter.com/geeksrulz/media/gri
Tonight’s qanda panel
Michael Kirby – Former High Court Judge
Nafsiah Mboi – Indonesian Health Minister
Françoise Barré-Sinoussi – French Nobel Prize winner & co-discoverer of HIV
Amanda Vanstone – Former Liberal Senator
Nic Holas – Writer and HIV Activist
BB
[But most just realize Abbott’s a thug, choking on his words, too scared to let a stray syllable out of his mouth, lest someone do to him what he and his cronies spent three years doing to Julia Gillard.]
Not sure if the voters realise that Abbott chokes on his words for fear of them being used against him.
I sense that the voters think he is merely incompetent