Nielsen: 54-46 to Labor

Personal ratings for Clive Palmer and a preferred Treasurer question spice up a poll result that’s otherwise much like all the others lately.

What I believe will be the farewell Nielsen poll for the Fairfax papers shows no dividend to Tony Abbott of the carbon tax repeal or (so far) the MH17 response, with Labor’s lead up from 53-47 at last month’s poll to 54-46. The poll of 1400 respondents was conducted from Thursday to Sunday, from which you can draw your own conclusions about its likely responsiveness to what’s occurred over that time. Labor is up three points on the primary vote to 40%, with the Coalition steady at 39%, the Greens down one to 12% and Palmer United steady on 5%. However, Tony Abbott’s personal ratings have improved: his approval is up three to 38% with disapproval down four to 56%, the gap on preferred prime minister narrows from 47-40 to 46-41, and while Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 41% and up three on disapproval to 44%. Even more entertainingly, there are personal ratings for Clive Palmer (approval 37%, disapproval 51%) and a preferred treasurer poll (Joe Hockey’s lead narrowing from 51-34 in a poll conducted I-don’t-know-how-long-ago to 42-42 now.

UPDATE: Phil Coorey in the Financial Review relates results on the leaders’ personal characteristics; more from Michelle Grattan at The Conversation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

865 comments on “Nielsen: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Newman and Abbott have something in common.

    The voters do not understand what their governments have done. In time those voters will see why its good for them.

    Both using the same excuse after the point of no return. For the LNP they are hoping thats how damaging the policies have been.

    Its true you can claim it’s a pollywaffle in the pool all you like. The punters think otherwise.

  2. The lead story and biggest single item on the radio news this morning was the ongoing MH17 matter. When this story, focusing principally on the undignified way in which the bodies and personal effects of the victims were being dealt with was over, there remained time for a short item on the ongoing atrocity on foot in Gaza. A further 80 people, as far as we can tell most of them civilians, died in the course of Israel’s attack. Whole blocks have been levelled. There is a picture of the remains of an ambulance. Bibi claims Palestinians make ‘telegenic victims’.

    I’m wondering in what ethical paradigm an atrocity ostensibly committed by irregular forces with sub rosa access to the high tech weaponry of a second world state for ends that remain murky out rates in grievability an ongoing atrocity committed by the regular forces of a state supplied with high tech weaponry by a 1st World Western ally that has been committing similar atrocities for most of 50 years while receiving aid from that ally and proposes to continue doing so indefinitely.

    I suppose it might be conceivable in a paradigm in which the crimes of our friends deserve to be trivialised or downplayed, or apologised for or given defences in false equivalence. It might be one in which harm to comparatively privileged people is more concerning than harm to marginalised and oppressed people, or where people from our jurisdiction count for more than people in other jurisdictions. None of these paradigms appeals to me in the slightest however.

  4. guytaur:

    Both Newman’s and Abbott’s govts have been heavy on the hubris and ideological settling of scores rather than good government for the good of the nation/state.

    Perhaps people are just sick of the drama and the cynicism?

  6. Laura Tingle appears to be the only journo who sees Abbott for what he is. The rest of them are still trying furiously to polish the turd that is Abbott and his useless cronies

  8. badcat
    [Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 8:42 am | PERMALINK
    Victoria ….. you listening to Malcolm Frazer ?????]

    No. why?

  9. citizen

    Yes only $900. But the fibs like the mafia had to exact their revenge on Slipper. Look at the lengths they went to with the sexual harrassment case. There could be a best seller for someone willing and able to document this sordid tale

  10. victoria

    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 8:44 am | Permalink

    [ badcat

    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 8:42 am | PERMALINK
    Victoria ….. you listening to Malcolm Frazer ?????

    No. why?
    ]

    ——————————————————

    He is on Jon Faine …..and seems to be backing up a lot of what Bemused, Jules, ….. and even TP ….has said about Unkraine – that BOTH sides are uncompromising, breaking deals made and have to share blame etc ….

    ( not saying he is right but …… some good points made )

  11. Fran

    The interesting bit from today’s news is about SecState Kerry.

    Apparently not happy with Israeli’s after being caught making comments on a “hotmike”

  13. Fran

    I hate to say it, but you use the word “ongoing” to describe the conflict in Gaza. That’s the key difference in my view. Israeli vs Palestinian conflicts have been going on for so long that most people are just immune / indifferent to them.

    In stark contrast, an airliner being shot out of the sky is a fairly unique occurrence. The fact this event involved Australians also adds to it’s newsworthiness.

    I’m not saying it’s right, but to me, that’s probably the key reason for the disparity in news coverage.

  14. I thought the Slipper Cabcharge matter had been resolved already? Four years to resolve a matter worth $900 is ridiculous IMO.

  15. Morning all. This poll in a clear message to Abbott, that the electorate does not like him or his policies, and that he has lost popularity faster than any leader in polling history. Too bad we must wait two more years before an election. Need we remind him of his own calls for Gillard to “face the people”?

  16. fran

    If you are going to do comparative analysis, at least do it properly.

    (a) Did 300 unarmed passengers fall out of the sky in Gaza too?
    (b) Did MH17 fire 1,000 plus rockets at whoever happened to be under the rockets?

    FWIW, I can’t see anyone much in either of the situations behaving well.

  17. badcat

    Have not been listening to any radio this morning as yet. Would have liked to have heard it.

    Of course, the first casualty of war is the truth.

    My view is that the focus by our govt at this point in time, should be on the repatriation of any remains, so that family can have some type of closure in this regard. Whoever fired the missile is secondary. The damage has been done and cannot be undone.
    Of course, resolutions can be sought to get to the bottom of this crime, but our govt sabre rattling does not assist the bereaved in any way

  18. The train of death, has it has been dubbed, still hasn’t left the station.
    [
    When Roman showed up for work at the railway station in Torez as normal at 7am on Sunday morning, he was told to couple his diesel locomotive to a five-wagon train in the siding and shunt it to the platform outside the white-painted ticket office.

    No one told him what was in the windowless grey wagon, or where he would be going next.

    But these four windowless refrigerator wagons and one guard’s van are now the grisly focus of an international tug of war over the MH17 disaster.

    Roman’s train is the makeshift morgue housing nearly 200 bodies collected from the crash-site of Malaysian airlines flight MH17.
    ]

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10974050/Malaysia-Airlines-plane-crashes-on-Ukraine-Russia-border-live.html

  20. According the smh article linked above, Muldoon consulted Rudd in order to clarify some issues.

    The conversation clearly went along these lines:

    RM: As I remember it, you were awesome, Kevin.

    KR: You’ve forgotten how utterly awesome I was….

  21. You have to think that, the longer Labor keeps this substantial lead +/- MOE, the harder it will be for Abbott to win back support leading up to the next election. How many voters have already made up their minds and are just waiting with baseball bats in hand? The response to the vision question could bear this out – lots of people recognise that Abbott has a vision for the future and they don’t like it.

    Hopefully a defeat of a first term government at the next Qld election will provide a pleasing precedent for the next federal election.

  25. Jackol

    [What a pathetic thing to say.]

    Maybe it wasn’t helpful or nice, but I was frustrated at comments like this:

    [I also think that Putin should be held responsible in some way for fostering the war in Ukraine.]

    In what way and why?

    Ok there is a fair chance that Girkin/Strelkov is working for the Russian government, but at the same time its not cut and dried. He seems to be erratic and incompetent and it doesn’t seem he is getting the support I would have assumed he would get if he was acting in some unofficial capacity trying to shore up or support the separatists.

    Another issue is Svoboda, who despite their poor showing in the presidential election have considerable power in the current Ukraine government and have a party leader who once said:

    [They were not afraid and we should not be afraid. They took their automatic guns on their necks and went into the woods, and fought against the Muscovites, Germans, Jews and other scum who wanted to take away our Ukrainian state.]

    Among other references to the “muscovite-jewish mafia.”

  27. citizen

    So when Fairfax (and the Guardian) are counteracting the Murdoch lines, Gina wants to kill Fairfax off. If ever it was time to pray for extra-terrestrial help, this is it.

  28. On twitter

    [Italian navy rescues 3,000 boatpeople over past 24 hours, bringing total arrivals so far this year to 43,000
    Australia squealing over 153]

  29. B Martin

    We discussed whether it was possible to continue to mine Roxby Downs without mining the uranium. You said it could, citing Mudd’s paper.

    However, Mudd’s paper is not about the current mining operations. It is about the mooted (now shelved) expansion of Roxby into a massive open cut operation which is a different issue.

  30. Fairfax “exclusive” on Cathy Jackson:

    [Research scientists at the Peter MacCallum cancer hospital did not receive millions of dollars owed to them in back pay, hospital financial records show, after a secretive $250,000 deal struck between the hospital and controversial union leader Kathy Jackson.

    Ms Jackson has admitted using that $250,000 settlement as seed money for a bank account from which she withdrew tens of thousands of dollars and used for personal spending. at fashion boutiques and a pediatric dentist, and at David Jones, Gazman, JB Hi-Fi and Bunnings.

    Ms Jackson, under oath, had claimed at the royal commission last month that workers received ‘‘millions of dollars’’ in back pay which she said was on top of the $250,000 payment made from the hospital in 2003 to her Health Services Union No.3 branch.

    Detailed annual financial records from the hospital, obtained by Fairfax Media, show no record of any money being back-paid to workers nor the $250,000 settlement.

    New evidence submitted to the royal commission will also allege that Ms Jackson actively discouraged hospital workers from pursuing the back-pay claim and warned them they could lose their jobs if they did.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/peter-maccallum-scientists-miss-out-on-millions-as-hsu-leader-kathy-jackson-cuts-deal-20140720-zuodr.html#ixzz383OM9GlG

  31. The Tories are terrified. Look at the AFR headline “Wold Backs Abbott Fury”. Funny headline for a financial newspaper, wouldn’t yo say?

  32. So Rudd is trying to rewrite history to put himself in a favourable light. Well, well, well. That puts him in very select company among politicians, doesn’t it!

  33. CITIZN – Surely Gina would be looking for the right people to close it down, because nobody would read it.
    Anyone care to predict how many readers would be lost in the first week? 20% 30%

  34. So, Julia Gillard sacrifices everything for the introduction of a carbon policy that the Greens agreed to, pays the ultimate political price, has her character entirely impugned by every media outlet in the nation, exits gracefully, and what does Christine Milne do? Blames Gillard for the policy’s demise.

    There’s a very good reason why the current formulation of the Australian Greens will never command a more-than-minority level of support. It’s because the vast majority of Australians understand that, behind all the self-elevated morality, the Greens are in fact a spiteful and immature group of people.

  36. The most remarkable finding of this poll is that 35% of voters think that Tony Abbott is trustworthy. Also that only 28% think that Tony Abbott is easily influenced by minority groups. What about minorities like mining billionaires, fossil fuel executives, banking executives, proprietors of private colleges…

  37. Fran #52

    “I’m wondering in what ethical paradigm an atrocity ostensibly committed by irregular forces with sub rosa access to the high tech weaponry of a second world state for ends that remain murky out rates in grievability an ongoing atrocity committed by the regular forces of a state supplied with high tech weaponry by a 1st World Western ally that has been committing similar atrocities for most of 50 years while receiving aid from that ally and proposes to continue doing so indefinitely.”

    In layman’s word-economic terms:

    What the ragtag mob in the Ukraine did to MH17 pales into insignificance compared to what Israel and the Yanks have done to Palestinians for decades and are doing today.

  38. Where on earth would these libs be if they didn’t have Murdoch pumping air into their leaking bladder. 60 – 40, or worse?

  39. Steve777

    Also good to see is that the % who trust him is below the Coalition’s primary vote. The lurve spreading into Coalition ranks.

  40. I find fran’s ‘why do we care about MH17?’ muse a little hypocritical.

    Why do the Greens care about the refugees arriving here by boat and ignore the plight of refugees in camps far away from Australia?

    The answer is the same as it is for MH17 – there’s a personal connection.

    The refugees coming here by boat resonate with people because they’re coming to Australia. Those who are unlikely to ever land on our shores are basically invisible to us…and the Greens.

  41. [According the smh article linked above, Muldoon consulted Rudd in order to clarify some issues.

    The conversation clearly went along these lines:

    RM: As I remember it, you were awesome, Kevin.

    KR: You’ve forgotten how utterly awesome I was….]

    Really impressive post. One of your best. You must be really proud.

  42. The story today about Rudd’s attempted rewrite of Muldoon’s article tells you everything you ever needed to know about Rudd. We knew the poster who called himself Thomas Paine was a bit of a nutter, but how clearly intelligent posters like Bemused and MTBW can continue to carry a torch for this uber-narcissist continues to bewilder me.

    At least in my case, it isn’t all about a cult of Julia. She was an enormous disappointment and, apart from being remembered as Australia’s first female PM, she will mainly go down in the history books who promised not to introduce a carbon tax before an election and then – in a gargantuan lapse of judgement – merrily announced she was introducing one straight afterwards.

    But Gillard tried her best to govern well, and who knows how she might have gone if the deposed Rudd had behaved with dignity – like Ted Bailleau – rather than in the petulant and treacherous way he did behave. (Hey, Labor might even have won an outright majority in 2010: a true a Labor man would have been trying to achieve that, rather than prevent it).

    The article also tells you everything you need to know about the two-faced, Janus-like (I might have put one too many letters in there) Peter Hartcher. I guess he’s trying to respond in his own way to all the criticism he copped from critics like Latham and even some of his peers for being the “campaign manager” for Ruddstoration.

    But at least Hartcher is just a press gallery hack, and never aspired to lead a political party.

    Rudd’s place in the history books is looking set to be pretty ugly.

  43. I chose not to watch Abbott on 60 Minutes. But it was referred to on ABC RN this morning.

    James Carleton interviewed Tanya P about MH17. She gave most appropriate replies, no hype, just stating the obvious things that need to occur.

    Carleton and Grattan spoke in complimentary terms about Plibersek’s words, and made references to and quoted what Abbott has said over the past days ….. tough angry words.

    Then Carleton referred to some of Abbott’s words (now a 5 word mantra!) from 60 Minutes ….. “anger should not overtake judgement”

    Plibersek’s answers to Carleton showed that she understood and practises (in pretty well all her responses to any issue) Abbott’s “advice”.

    Abbott’s tough domestic words show that it was just a mantra on 60 Minutes.

  45. Why do the Greens care about the refugees arriving here by boat and ignore the plight of refugees in camps far away from Australia?

    Dealing with the refugees who arrive in Australia is specifically our responsibility. Those in distant camps are not, except to the extent that they are the responsibility of the wider world. There’s a difference.

  46. Zoomster #90

    I appreciate that you are not referring to my #87 but it alerts me to clarify that #87 is about Fran’s use of 6 lines to say what I said in 2 lines, not any value judgements about the merits of those two war events.

    Having said that, Israel’s war / self-defence actions for decades do seem to attract relatively less opprobrium if you measure it in TV time of newspaper pages and pictures.

  47. Rudd and Gillard are already being lumped together in history, the merging of the two will continue over time. Gillard will standout for being our first woman PM rather than anything she did which is at least a little ironic (because most of that has been / will be destroyed by Tony).

    I’ve been a local Councillor and used to play in WA labor politics, I don’t recall meeting too many humble people without ambition. To get preselection for a safe seat and climb to leader you are going to be pretty focused, very ambitious and very egotistical, politicians have different levels of being able to hide the ego and ambition but none of them lack it.

  48. zoomster @ 90 – you can’t assume that Greens ignore the plight of refugees overseas.

    I’m not associated with the Greens , but have preferenced them first before, and I may well do so again (I assume that makes me a “green” according to some, but I don’t identify with the party.) I support the UNHCR and donate money to their refugee support network every month.

  49. I think the reason many ignore the plight of the Palestinians is because everybody says “it’s a global problem” but does nothing about it themselves.

    Out of sight, out of mind.

  50. As for the Greens on AS.

    Like it or loathe it the Greens have consistently voted against offshore.

    The only party that has voted against off shore while professing it is their policy has been the Liberal Party.

    Any problems you have with that direct at the LNP not the Greens.

    Yes it is that simple. That black and white.

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