Nielsen: 54-46 to Labor

Personal ratings for Clive Palmer and a preferred Treasurer question spice up a poll result that’s otherwise much like all the others lately.

What I believe will be the farewell Nielsen poll for the Fairfax papers shows no dividend to Tony Abbott of the carbon tax repeal or (so far) the MH17 response, with Labor’s lead up from 53-47 at last month’s poll to 54-46. The poll of 1400 respondents was conducted from Thursday to Sunday, from which you can draw your own conclusions about its likely responsiveness to what’s occurred over that time. Labor is up three points on the primary vote to 40%, with the Coalition steady at 39%, the Greens down one to 12% and Palmer United steady on 5%. However, Tony Abbott’s personal ratings have improved: his approval is up three to 38% with disapproval down four to 56%, the gap on preferred prime minister narrows from 47-40 to 46-41, and while Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 41% and up three on disapproval to 44%. Even more entertainingly, there are personal ratings for Clive Palmer (approval 37%, disapproval 51%) and a preferred treasurer poll (Joe Hockey’s lead narrowing from 51-34 in a poll conducted I-don’t-know-how-long-ago to 42-42 now.

UPDATE: Phil Coorey in the Financial Review relates results on the leaders’ personal characteristics; more from Michelle Grattan at The Conversation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

865 comments on “Nielsen: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. mike hilliard

    They are about 700kg according to the great Wiki so not even the old decimal point in the wrong place explains the difference. However on the wiki page under the weights is the length. 5.55 meters. now that might be where the 55 came from.

  2. I find it “interesting” that so many here have jumped on the “Silly Shorten talking to ACL” bandwagon.

    I find myself in agreement with Lynchpin and Fran, who both seem to be saying that in principle, there’s nothing wrong with it.

    So the premature ejaculators should wait until they know what Shorten will say / did say before condemning him.

  3. @psyclaw/857

    I rather not have you label me poor manor, your post should be removed as it is demeaning.

    I do not support anything that ACL does and any alliance or support is only going to make his other policies such as NBN be incompatible.

  4. [ mikehilliard

    Posted Tuesday, July 22, 2014 at 1:47 pm | Permalink

    Abbott has no self control.


    The Next Three Word Slogan

    Posted on July 19, 2014 by archiearchive FCD

    A Fictional Tale

    About Fictional Aliens masquerading as Human Beings

    The scene; A despondent meeting in the Prime Minister’s Office.

    tony abbott, “This Senate is so hard to control. They all have minds of their own and I can’t get stuff through. It makes me look weak.”

    Peta Credlin, “Well, your popularity is so far down the tubes you cannot call a double dissolution. Rupert doesn’t have everything he wants yet so you cannot give the Government benches away. He will not like it!”

    “Well what can I do” asks a querulous tony. “OH Wait! There has been a plane crash involving Australians. Surely we can use that somehow.

    “True.” says Peta. “I remember a time when John Howard was way down in the polls and he found an international incident to cling onto and it helped raise him up in the polls.”

    “That’s right!” cries abbott. “9/11. It worked for him. He found a scapegoat and things went really well for him.”

    “Don’t forget the Russians are right next door and Putin is coming here for the G20 meeting.” Peta contributes.

    “That’s right,” crows tony. I can start blaming the Russians now and Rupert’s media will raise a huge hatred of them here in Australia. It doesn’t matter what he does overseas. Then I can ban Putin and any other Russians from coming here. That will win us the support of a majority of Australians.”

    “Hmmmm,” Peta thoughtfully says. “There is not a lot of evidence that this has anything to do with the Russians. It seems the separatists got hold of this missile system when they overran one of the Ukrainian bases. It wasn’t supplied by the Russians. Some Eastern separatist fool decided to fire at will and ask questions later.”

    “We don’t need to worry about complicated stuff like that even if it is true. We cannot make that into a three word slogan, no matter how hard we try. “Russians did it” is much more suited to convincing those dodos who vote for us. And it fits into Rupert’s headlines so well.”

    “OK.” says Peta. So now we whip up anti-Russian feeling for about three weeks. Then we ban Putin from entering Australia. Then we can do the Double Dissolution thing and get proper control of an open and adult Parliament.”

    “Yes!” concludes tony. “It worked for John Howard, it’ll work for me.”

  5. Zoid #760

    Posted Tuesday, July 22, 2014 at 10:52 am | PERMALINK

    I agree, he should be shot for that.

    Now there’s a post which really is demeaning.

  6. [What is really worrying is that the man has no composure, he can’t relax, he’s “fight or flight”ing 100% of the time.]

    Abbott only gets his adrenaline hit from the act of conquering and forcing submission, not the result of it. He can’t do peacetime.

    Which is why he is so dangerous.

  7. [Well voters in the WA Senate vote showed what they think.]

    That they wanted the top listed ALP candidate to be elected to the Senate?

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