As I type, polling booths in South Australia are set to close at any tick of the clock. I do so from the studios of ABC Television in Adelaide, where I’ll be standing in for Antony Green, who spends the evening grappling with Tasmania’s high-maintenance electoral system. Obviously I won’t have much to offer in the way of live commentary on this site, but here’s a thread where you can call the toss as the results roll in.
Psephos,
I think Such will be the speaker.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 1m
#savotes Seat Projection (48.3% counted): ALP 23 (-3) LIB 22 (+4) IND 2 (-1)
[Leon Bignall on ABC telling us what it means to be an MP. Good stuff!]
Bignell and Piccolo were dead certs to lose LAST time, so they’ve defied the odds twice.
@ Diogenes 149
Pretty much. I suspect strongly that Ashford is well and truly gone, but I think Labor can hold on in Mitchell, which throws the ball to the Independents. However, Labor would only need one of them at that point – the Libs would need them both.
Edi
[I think Such will be the speaker.]
Either way.
ECSA is giving Mitchell to the Libs, but I don’t have confidence in their website either.
Atkinson is giving away Mitchell on ABC Radio.
He is saying Liberals have Hartley, Bright, Mitchell and Mt Gambier.
However also saying Ashford is a definite Labor hold.
Elder still not clear.
[Another crap night for the Greens, I note in passing. They’ve probably lost two seats in Tas.]
8% swing against them in Tas.
Interestingly, if Lib gains are quarantined to Bright, Hartley, Ashford and Mount Gambier, that will mean my prediction yesterday here:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/03/15/newspoll-and-reachtel-final-south-australian-polls/#comment-1933242
was absolutely right.
Abbott learning his lines for tomorrow: this was an election fought solely on state issues and the loss of four seats is a slap in the face for Bill Shorten and the carbon tax.
10% to Liberals against Such in Fischer as I thought would happen.
How that will impact on what he does I am not sure.
He is very annoyed at the Liberals local campaign tactics. Sam Duluk and the Liberals went at him extremely hard and that might have annoyed him enough he will not support them.
What does the panel think about Elder?
Elder is a definite hold.
Both ECSA and ABC still have only 10% counted in Ashford. What’s going on there?
I think they’re being very cautious on Elder… the swing is nowhere near enough 0.6% when 2.0% is needed. I don’t think the postals/pre-polls can push the swing that far.
Rau says Labor will win Ashford.
[What does the panel think about Elder?]
Labor retain was what I heard, but was feeding the dog so may have misheard.
Incidentally you can watch William here (interspersed with Tas coverage): http://www.abc.net.au/news/abcnews24/
I was quite pessimistic about this but I am pleasantly surprised to be wrong. Too early to call, but at this stage Weatherall has certainly limited the losses. Labor should not get too carried away, because in close contests the postals are likely to favour the Libs. Still, compared to the polls only a month ago, the campaign has definitely helped Labor.
Win or not, at this point Marshall would have to be worried about his leadership in parliament. At best he has gone from sure thing to minority government. He lost both debates, even according to the Advertiser, and made a famous gaff. The campaign exposed him as being fairly light weight, I thought.
Ashford retained by Labor? There’s a surprising one.
Being as objective as I can, this is a real stinker of a result for the Libs. I know for a fact that Labor wrote this election off a year ago.
If Labor retains Ashford and Mitchell, they’ve got their majority.
Where has that slag Edwina gone? Slunk back off to the Young Libs bunker.
The swings in general have been very small compared to last election when they were all over the place.
[Diogenes
Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 at 9:05 pm | PERMALINK
Elder is a definite hold.]
I am not sure about that.
In 2010 there were 20k+ votes in Elder.
The current 175 vote lead for ALP is only on <12k votes counted.
Unless you know something I don't know about postal and pre-polls in South Australia???
Told youse so.
Political prognosticators are almost as bad as the dopes who claim to predict the unemployment figures 2 minutes before they’re released.
They’re living in a bubble where a close to election LOSING poll situation for Abbott is no big deal, whereas the same (but reversed) numbers for Labor are “the end of a once great party”.
Hartcher’s man-love piece this morning – where Labor left us crippled with debt and Tony Abbott was doing fine things in letting tens of thousands of workers be “liberated” from their jobs – was just one example of how wrong these turkeys can be.
t seems that, when faced with the enormity of sending SA to the right, the good people of that state just couldn’t do it.
Bring on the WA special Senate election!
And keep those Audit Commission numbers secret Tony. You’ll lose a couple of thousand votes a day in WA as long as you do.
In Ashford, things are even more bizarre!
There were 21k+ votes in Ashford in 2010.
The ABC projection is based on a TPP count of 1.5k votes.
What is going on?
Ashford is a definite hold, Labor are claiming victory.
Tom Koutsantonis is still thinking about holding Elder and Mitchell and retaining government.
However Michael Atkinson believe Mitchell has gone.
[Being as objective as I can, this is a real stinker of a result for the Libs.]
Yes, they should’ve knocked this election out of the park. Where did it all go wrong?
If memory serves me correctly Labor didn’t do too badly in the late votes in SA in the 2010 election.
Everything
The computers gave Elder away but it will go down to pre-polls given their huge numbers.
@Everything 176
Booth-matched results used for the predictions, I imagine.
At the risk of repeating myself. The federal Tories will tell us the SA election was fought solely on state issues …
X-Team is up to 11.9% in early LC counting and trending upwards.
I got this totally wrong, I did not think they would get anywhere near that amount.
Gidding attempting to break Rudd’s record concession speech
The ABC is now giving only two Lib gains, Bright and Hartley, with Ashford and Mitchell in doubt but leaning to Labor. I think that gives Labor 24 and majority government. What does the panel think?
Everything, as a South Aussie I can safely say this is a woeful result for the right side of politics. Irrespective of whether they can get the seats (I don’t think they can) this is a 12 year old government whose party machine has done another extraordinary marginal seat campaign. Marshall is gone as leader (either now if they lose or within 12 months) – the bonus is Abbott probably cost them even more votes over the last few days.
It kills me I couldn’t bet on Labor at $13.00 earlier in the week due to our stupid gaming rules.
I hope everyone from other states took my valuable tip. 😀
They are a lot shorter than $13 at the moment!
[What does the panel think?]
Sadly we’re stuck with the Tas panel. Why is anyone’s guess. We know the result in Tas.
The ABC is also saying the Greens have failed to win a seat in the Council. Lib 4, Labor 4, Darley, Family First and Multicultural.
rossmcg, the SA Liberals are a mess, their leader is nothing special. Compared to that the SA Labor party is well organised and knows how to fight hard locally to win seats.
This result is clearly mostly about the state Liberal party and popular individual Labor members connecting well with their electorate.
Ashford, Mitchell and Elder will go down to pre-polls.
I think it’s really 21 all with two indies.
Dio:
You should be nicer to Centre. I’m sure he’d have wagered a bet or two on your behalf. 😀
Greens doing badly is always a plus. 😀
[What does the panel think?]
I meant this panel – you guys.
@Diogenes 191
Given the indies in question, Labor only really needs to win one of those three to have a crack at forming Government. Two would be nice though.
Today is the first day of the last days of the LNPs ascendency over State and Federal politics.
Bring on the WA Senate and the 29 Nov election in Victoria.
I really want this ABC24 feed to go back to SA politics because that’s where the action is and because Eric Abetz annoys the crap out of him. I would rather listen to Christopher Pyne than Abetz.
I’m sure if Labor was in federally that Labor would have been wiped out here.
@Psephos 189 & dave 193
Not anymore. Greens elected #10 now.
Legislative Council result looking pretty straightforward which looks to be an almost status quo result.