Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

As the shine comes off Labor’s recent polling surge in Newspoll and Nielsen, Essential Research has them finally moving into the lead.

As other polls appear to be heading back in the other direction, the slow-moving Essential Research has Labor finally breaking into a lead of 51-49, compared with 50-50 over recent weeks. Labor has cracked 40%, up one point on last week, with the Coalition down two to 41%, the Greens steady on 8% and the Palmer United Party up a point to 4%. Other findings gauge concern about employment (55% express concern they or someone in their immediate family will lose their job in the next 12 months, up from 47% in August 2012), car industry assistance (46% think the government didn’t do enough to maintain car manufacturing in Australia, compared with 36% who think it did enough), the government’s approval of the coal port expansion at Abbot Point and related concerns about dredging and dumping at the Great Barrier Reef (66% disapprove of the decision, 41% strongly, with only 17% approving), and respondents’ level of interest in Schapelle Corby (71% professing little or no interest). Results courtesy of Bernard Keane at Crikey, with the full report to follow shortly.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,627 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Lordy. Just watching Britney on Sky. Scrote Morriscum has thrown the navy under the bus. Lack of training incompetence and heads will roll……..apparently. Ya reckon the navy chaps and chapesses will be furious or what ?

  2. Dee

    I’m glad you were there for your FIL.

    So many stories, so many heartbreaks, so much sexual assault, for so many kids of yesteryear.

    The mothers who couldn’t provide because of the death of their husbands, the fathers who couldn’t provide because of the death of the mothers, the single parents, the economy, the war, the everything.

    Today, it’s the sole parents who are blamed, for everything.

    But it doesn’t matter, does it, it’s the kids who suffer.

    All the kids.

    And it doesn’t matter if it comes out when they’re old or young, all people need love and understanding.

    I’m glad you were there for you father in law. And your husband.

  3. Dee @ 1483: That’s incredibly tragic, and, obviously all too typical. We are seeing, at the Royal Commission, a light being shone on absolutely the lowest forms of life.

  4. A sober reminder why we should treasure our democracy and its conventions, not trash them.

    @bbcworldservice: Hospitals in #Kiev are full, we’re moving the injured outside the capital to stop them being arrested – doctor in #Ukraine’s capital

  5. kezza2

    [Today, it’s the sole parents who are blamed, for everything.]
    Today ? The Rodent Howard was huge on blaming “single mothers’ for any and every social ill from day 1.

  6. “@LaraGiddings: Liberals said Labor was running a scare campaign before Federal election on NBN & Gonski. We were right. Abbott has cut both #brokenpromises”

  7. Interesting stats on FTTH rollouts…

    FTTH Council Europe ‏@FTTHCouncilEU 28m

    There are now 9.5 million FTTH subscribers in Europe & 10.6 million in Russia & CIS #ftth2014 pic.twitter.com/XBrrGFs5FU

    FTTH Council Europe ‏@FTTHCouncilEU 42s

    11 countries in Europe (EU28) had more than 1M homes passed at year end 2013. Latvia has reached 100% coverage joining Lithuania #ftth2014

  8. Edwina StJohn @ 1498: Always nice to be reminded of Kipling, so thanks for that. I haven’t a clue how it is supposed to relate to any previous postings of mine or yours, but what the hell?

    Here’s a quote from Kipling in honour of Messrs Abbott and Morrison.

    “Now it is not good for the Christian’s health to hustle the Aryan brown,

    For the Christian riles, and the Aryan smiles and he weareth the Christian down;

    And the end of the fight is a tombstone white with the name of the late deceased,

    And the epitaph drear: “A Fool lies here who tried to hustle the East.”

  9. Dee @ 1508

    Yep, get the Federal Police to storm into the offices of one of Australia’s largest media organisations to conduct searches as if they were a front for a multi national drug syndicate – just to save Corby from herself.

    Let’s use the brain!

  10. [poroti
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 9:59 pm | PERMALINK

    davidwh@1472

    Dee I think it’s more likely the navy had a lot of their electronic gear turned off to mask their presence and relied on less reliable methods and simply stuffed up.

    Utter crap. They can turn their location transponder (off) all they like. It has ZERO effect on the GPS system. It receives it does not send !!!!]

    Give davidwh a break. He WANTS to believe his party is good. Even though he know in his heart of hearts they’re heartless bastards.

    He knows the navy has state of the art GPS.

    He knows the navy has to obey the law of the sea.

    He doesn’t want to believe his party of government has ordered them to transgress everything they know to be ethical and right.

    Because that means, davidwh has voted for the wrong party. And it is him, davidwh, who is included in the Australia who is flouting international law, and flouting international standards – and he is NOT included with the rest of us who voted Labor.

    You may be a nice bloke, davidwh, but you have certainly backed the wrong horse here. No amount of trying to justify the shit is going to help you assuage your guilt for voting for them.

  11. Rex Douglas
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 5:35 pm | PERMALINK
    ABC News ‏@abcnews 3m
    A major review has found Navy breached Indonesian waters six times under Operation Sovereign Borders http://ab.co/MbI5TZ #auspol

    Morrison should ‘inadvertently’ resign

    -how do they know in review they made a mistake if they never know in the first place?

  12. [Lordy. Just watching Britney on Sky. Scrote Morriscum has thrown the navy under the bus. Lack of training incompetence and heads will roll……..apparently. Ya reckon the navy chaps and chapesses will be furious or what ?]

    Ooooooo. He will get a spanking for that. Barracking for the Home Team and all wot?? I’ll bet the Minister for Defense will tear strips off him……in about a month…..when he calms down, the brain-lock subsides, and can string a coherent sentence together …..if he remembers….

  13. Centre
    [
    Poroti

    Yes, but why has Morrison left them dry to hang?]
    Coz like a good tory and happy clapper it is everyone else’s fault. Like Abbott he is Dog’s chosen one.

  14. [poroti
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 10:07 pm | PERMALINK
    kezza2

    Today, it’s the sole parents who are blamed, for everything.

    Today ? The Rodent Howard was huge on blaming “single mothers’ for any and every social ill from day 1.]

    Ehhhgh. I meant, contemporaneously! Rather than back in the early . . .

  15. pedant

    [Diogenes @ 1478: If you think any idiot can be an Ambassador, and that it’s the underlings who do the work, you have been badly misinformed. That’s one aspect of the US system, but not how the Australian diplomatic network operates.]

    If that’s the case they shouldn’t give them out to people with no diplomatic qualifications.

  16. Edwina
    [I dont understand why crossing Indonesia’s maritime border is a big deal?]
    You should be asking the PM that question. He seems to think sovereignty is a big deal. Goes on and on about respecting it all the time, both ours and theirs.

  17. What if Indonesia really got the sh!ts and declared war on Australia and got China to help them then we got the US to help us?

    Who would we go for 😈

  18. TPP News:

    http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-tpp-power-to-the-corporations-at-the-expense-of-the-planet/5369188?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-tpp-power-to-the-corporations-at-the-expense-of-the-planet

    “The TPP trade deal would expand a system of corporate rights and private courts that threaten progress on some of our most urgent environmental issues”

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/curtis-ellis/conservatives-also-oppose_b_4800629.html

    “but the fact is conservative voters loathe it as well. Despite overwhelming opposition among GOP base voters, Speaker John Boehner and GOP leaders continue to support giving President Obama fast track power.”

    http://www.globalresearch.ca/wikileaks-and-the-secret-tpp-environment-report-%E3%82%A6%E3%82%A4%E3%82%AD%E3%83%AA%E3%83%BC%E3%82%AF%E3%82%B9%E6%B5%81%E5%87%BA%E3%81%AEtpp%E7%A7%98%E5%AF%86%E7%92%B0%E5%A2%83%E5%A0%B1%E5%91%8A/5369351

    “WikiLeaks has done it again – made available important documents that governments and corporate interests have tried to keep secret from the general public.”

    USA wants more than Japan wants more out of USA trade deal:
    http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/kyodo-news-international/140218/us-trade-chief-unhappy-japan-concessions-tpp-talks

    “”We’ve not yet achieved a level of market access or the resolution of auto issues that we need to achieve.””

    Once again, Good old USA is pushing the bully lines on TPP, and countries like Australia are falling for it.

  19. Centre, the US would probably step in on the Indonesian’s side to prevent it getting to that stage. The last thing they want is for Indonesia to start getting cozy with China.

  20. I wonder what role ASIO and the SAS are playing in Operation Sovereign Borders.

    Presumably it will be years before we know the truth of this!

  21. Diogenes @ 1525: I agree 100%. Some politicians might well fit the description of “diplomatically qualified”, eg Kim Beazley, Mr Downer, and, in an earlier time, Sir Percy Spender. And Stanley Melbourne Bruce did well enough as a diplomat to be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. But Senators Vanstone and Gair certainly weren’t up to scratch. These days, a good Ambassador requires strong management skills as well as diplomatic ability, especially if he or she has oversight of Australian aid money.

  22. If the navy did not use GPS but used calculation instead it brings up an interesting point.

    Indonesia gains no tracking through GPS. So who does? GPS goes through US military. Could it be the US has privately expressed opposition to Operation Sovereign Borders?

  23. [Iranian-Australian freelance interpreter Azita Bokan was contracted to work on Manus Island for the Department of Immigration last week.

    She was on Manus Island during the violent clashes on both nights.

    Ms Bokan claims she was dismissed on Sunday after trying to intervene in a scuffle between detainees and G4S staff.

    On Monday night she stood on the roof of the staff housing facility several hundred metres away from the compound and watched the unrest.

    She has described seeing detainees with horrific injuries after a deadly clash involving large rocks and machetes.

    “I haven’t had sleep in three nights. I’m so all over the place, myself. I’ve seen too much and I keep having flashbacks,” she told the ABC.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-19/guards-attacked-asylum-seekers-with-sticks-and-iron-witness-says/5270640

  24. [DisplayName
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 10:25 pm | PERMALINK

    Edwina

    I dont understand why crossing Indonesia’s maritime border is a big deal?

    You should be asking the PM that question. He seems to think sovereignty is a big deal. Goes on and on about respecting it all the time, both ours and theirs.]

    😆

    Hey, DN, Eddie’s pretty thick.

    And, before you know it, s/he’ll move right on to the next silly question. Sort of like “short term memory” syndrome.

    I knew a junkie once, who everyday thought there was a particular theme de jour, couldn’t keep up with any conversation.

    Eddie’s like that. Can’t even keep up with a theme s/he’s introduced.

    Skip de di doo dah, skip de di day . . .

  25. While I have no sympathy for a douchebag like Morrison, being Immigration Minister has to be the shittiest job in the country, followed by being the Industry Minister in an Abbott Government.

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