Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

As the shine comes off Labor’s recent polling surge in Newspoll and Nielsen, Essential Research has them finally moving into the lead.

As other polls appear to be heading back in the other direction, the slow-moving Essential Research has Labor finally breaking into a lead of 51-49, compared with 50-50 over recent weeks. Labor has cracked 40%, up one point on last week, with the Coalition down two to 41%, the Greens steady on 8% and the Palmer United Party up a point to 4%. Other findings gauge concern about employment (55% express concern they or someone in their immediate family will lose their job in the next 12 months, up from 47% in August 2012), car industry assistance (46% think the government didn’t do enough to maintain car manufacturing in Australia, compared with 36% who think it did enough), the government’s approval of the coal port expansion at Abbot Point and related concerns about dredging and dumping at the Great Barrier Reef (66% disapprove of the decision, 41% strongly, with only 17% approving), and respondents’ level of interest in Schapelle Corby (71% professing little or no interest). Results courtesy of Bernard Keane at Crikey, with the full report to follow shortly.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,627 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 33
1 2 … 33

  1. From previous thread …

    [@davidwh/1374

    That maybe true, but, since when is Corporate Australia or Corporate USA good examples?]

    Well we do have strong legislation and common law in relation to corporate governance probably as good as found anywhere in the world. We run the risk of making errors when we generalise about painting all within a group with the same brush of the few people who flout the rules. It doesn’t matter whether it’s corporations, unions, politicians or ordinary groups of people.

  6. One thing about Essential, it is certainly not erratic like the other polls. It has generally shown Labor 2/3 points lower than the other polls, so this is certainly more interesting than the Fairfax poll, that doesn’t mean to say that it is correct.

  9. Psephos@1354

    @Psephos/1346

    Of course, but with power comes responsibility.


    I’m not disputing that, I’m disputing the validity of this tactic of excusing Craig Thomson by saying, oh look at Al Capone over there, he’s much worse.

    Firstly, Thompson found guilty – I hope they throw the book at him. He’s had his trial. No excuses.

    Regarding ‘oh look at Al Capone over there, he’s much worse’ is the standard approach, indeed the reflex approach from the tory apologists on this board and from the media whenever a tory is found guilty of whatever.

    But the tories have such poor memories –

    [ ‘I cannot recall,’

    ‘I don’t recollect,’

    ‘I wasn’t informed,’

    ‘I can’t remember,’

    ‘I have no recollection of that.’

    Almost as good as Trevor Flugge of AWB fame claiming, as his defence, that he was hard of hearing. ]

    Perpective.

  11. @Dave/9

    I am no apologist, I also hope they throw the book at him, but my issue is that it’s not going to solve anything.

    Just like “cracking down” on copyright won’t solve anything.

  12. Interesting:

    Retweeted by Essential Media
    CentrePolicyDev(CPD) ‏@CentrePolicyDev Feb 13

    @EssentialVision poll: yes to #droughtrelief for struggling #farmers, no to #miningsubsidy & #negativegearing … http://ow.ly/tze64

  13. Interesting that Essential have not added “Education” to the list of important industries. Not long ago Education was a bigger export earner than tourism and farming, and second to mining.

  14. davidwh@1

    From previous thread …

    @davidwh/1374
    We run the risk of making errors when we generalise about painting all within a group with the same brush of the few people who flout the rules.

    It doesn’t matter whether it’s corporations, unions, politicians or ordinary groups of people.

    Yet you regularly use “Both sides do it” and “We really need to cut {eg Hockey} some slack here.”

  15. [Regarding ‘oh look at Al Capone over there, he’s much worse’ is the standard approach, indeed the reflex approach from the tory apologists on this board and from the media whenever a tory is found guilty of whatever.]

    Yes of course. But to repeat my earlier point, I don’t expect any better from tories, because tories are scum. I DO expect better from Labor people, because we are better than tories. So when a Labor person is convicted of something as inexcusable as stealing union funds, I don’t expect to see a lot of lame-ass apologetics from other Labor people.

  18. William I was wondering if you could crank up your sophisticated econometric model thingy and test the hypothesis that Australian cricket performs better under Liberal governments?

  19. @Pollytics: Who did what is already irrelevant for Morrison. He failed to adequately resource & protect refugees/staff. 1 dead, 77 injured. Sack him

  20. Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 40s

    Who did what is already irrelevant for Morrison. He failed to adequately resource & protect refugees/staff. 1 dead, 77 injured. Sack him

  21. [Yet you regularly use “Both sides do it” and “We really need to cut {eg Hockey} some slack here.”]

    Yes and I apologise. It’s just a nature thing I can’t seem to avoid.

  24. Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 42s

    The buck stops with Morrison. His decisions made the difference between death and injury or none

  25. Job security is an interesting one for the Tories, with 48% of their own voters being concerned about it. This cannot be good for Abbott. Over all it has risen to 55% from 47% during Julia’s time in office.

  28. davidwh @1

    my experience is that corporate Australia has a similar mix of personalities as the rest of Australia…. there are ratbags who know they are ratbags, ratbags who fool themselves they are not ratbags and people of good character (possibly more than their fair share of psychopaths tho’).

    Good regulations and well funded corporate policing of those laws and regulations are essential to allow the good character exec types to flourish.

    The problem with regulating the corporate world is that they hold immense power, and when their lobbyist institutions seem so partial to one side of politics and that both believe in less regulation, smaller government, and more laissez faire it strikes me as a slippery slope, and one that is inconsistent with their own long term profit goals.

  29. Sohar @13
    I noticed that too. Another very big industry not mentioned is “entertainment”, all the TV stations, sports teams, computer games etc.

  32. Simon I agree with the basic thrust of your post. We rely on governments and other organisations like unions to balance corporate power. At the end of the day ordinary people rely on governments to set a fair balance between economic and social outcomes within the structures we all live in. It’s not easy because we all have differing views about where the balance should be set.

    Generally Australian governments of all persuasions do OK and occasionally we get a government that does well.

  33. Yes, MagicPud. Does entertainment make much in export earnings? It certainly is a big business within the country. Entertainment must be a big earner for the USA, but not sure about Oz.

  34. Thomson can of course appeal. Maybe he can do another fundraiser where he can explain why he did not contest the facts asserted against him.

    His appeal cannot traverse, realistically, those facts which he did not contest.

  35. [Where is Abbott? ]

    I imagine Abbott is rubbing his hands with glee. The bad news story about job losses at Pt Henry will now be buried beneath two stories which are good for him: Labor MP convicted of fraud, and illegal immigrants riot in detention. The WA Senate story is big news for pseph-heads but of no interest to anyone else.

  36. Has this report already been posted?

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/icac-to-investigate-3-liberal-mps-including-chris-hartcher/story-e6frgczx-1226830426836#

    ICAC to investigate 3 Liberal MPs, including Chris Hartcher
    Mark Coultan The Australian February 18, 2014 12:10PM

    THREE NSW Liberals MPs, including former Cabinet member Chris Hartcher are to be investigated by the Independent Commission against Corruption to find out if they solicited money in return for MPs doing favours.

  38. davidwh@21

    Yet you regularly use “Both sides do it” and “We really need to cut {eg Hockey} some slack here.”


    Yes and I apologise. It’s just a nature thing I can’t seem to avoid.

    Far enough and very ironic (deliberate?) choice of words.

    When you use it so often its very difficult to see it as anything else other than as being a tory “apologist”.

  39. Psephos

    The Alcoa story will resonate throughout the region that is directly affected by the loss of employment. The whole Geelong region is truly in the doledrums

  40. 35

    I am sure the Senate elections case is of some interest interest to most WA voters, since they will be going back to the polls.

  41. Psephos@35

    Where is Abbott?


    I imagine Abbott is rubbing his hands with glee. The bad news story about job losses at Pt Henry will now be buried beneath two stories which are good for him: Labor MP convicted of fraud, and illegal immigrants riot in detention. The WA Senate story is big news for pseph-heads but of no interest to anyone else.

    The time is rapidly coming where Abbotts good luck will run out.
    The Job losses will still be mounting long after Thomson is forgotten.

  42. davidwh
    Yes, I agree with that, but go further to say that government should not only be “big” enough to counterbalance power from the corporate sector, they should also be big enough to be active in some sectors of the economy where it is either economically beneficial to do so or socially necessary without feeling pressured by the corporate sector to stay out. I vote for the government and thus feel I can hold them to account, only those with massive shareholdings can hold the multi-nationals to account.

  43. What a difference an extra weeks makes for the polls, especially if that week includes the demise of Toyota in Australia and the waffle from the government in response to it.

    It took a fews for the enormity of what happened to sink in:

    * There is no car manufacturing left in Australia;

    * Thousands will lose their jobs;

    * Small (and large) businesses will close down or go off-shore;

    * Abbott thinks it’s a good thing, on balance, because he declined to help due to the Age Of Entitlement being over.

    * I repeat – car manufacturing is gone, gone, gone.

    Why wouldn’t even the catatonic Essential register some dismay at that?

  45. Psephos

    Oh and asylum seeker policy has a long way to run yet, it is looking like an unmitigated disaster for us where indonesia is concerned

  47. “@NeilChenoweth: Sinodinos joins AWH board Oct 31 08, chairman from Nov 3 2010, resigns Nov 9 2011. That is, he was there much of time #ICAC is investigating”

  48. Simon katich

    I have had feedback from some connections in Qld. I Was surprised to learn that people I considered “red necks” are collectively and actively protesting against Abbott Point for environmental reasons

  49. Simon Katich@28

    davidwh @1

    my experience is that corporate Australia has a similar mix of personalities as the rest of Australia…. there are ratbags who know they are ratbags, ratbags who fool themselves they are not ratbags and people of good character (possibly more than their fair share of psychopaths tho’).

    Good regulations and well funded corporate policing of those laws and regulations are essential to allow the good character exec types to flourish.

    The problem with regulating the corporate world is that they hold immense power, and when their lobbyist institutions seem so partial to one side of politics and that both believe in less regulation, smaller government, and more laissez faire it strikes me as a slippery slope, and one that is inconsistent with their own long term profit goals.

    The tories resisted prison time for corporate crime for many years. Pratt’s price fixing was huge in terms of money and breach of trust, yet he paid a fine.

    In general though Australian corporate crime agencies have a pretty poor record of getting convictions even before the occasional ‘guilty’ is appealed.

    A lack of convinction?

  50. I wouldn’t be so sure that Thomson is bigger than another large job loss. Australians are becoming increasingly concerned about job security (see Essential) and these job shocks are mounting day by day. The voters will crack eventually – Thomson doesn’t threaten their jobs, but Hockey and Abbott’s Thatcherism does.

Comments Page 1 of 33
1 2 … 33

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *