Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

As the shine comes off Labor’s recent polling surge in Newspoll and Nielsen, Essential Research has them finally moving into the lead.

As other polls appear to be heading back in the other direction, the slow-moving Essential Research has Labor finally breaking into a lead of 51-49, compared with 50-50 over recent weeks. Labor has cracked 40%, up one point on last week, with the Coalition down two to 41%, the Greens steady on 8% and the Palmer United Party up a point to 4%. Other findings gauge concern about employment (55% express concern they or someone in their immediate family will lose their job in the next 12 months, up from 47% in August 2012), car industry assistance (46% think the government didn’t do enough to maintain car manufacturing in Australia, compared with 36% who think it did enough), the government’s approval of the coal port expansion at Abbot Point and related concerns about dredging and dumping at the Great Barrier Reef (66% disapprove of the decision, 41% strongly, with only 17% approving), and respondents’ level of interest in Schapelle Corby (71% professing little or no interest). Results courtesy of Bernard Keane at Crikey, with the full report to follow shortly.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,627 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. [Yep, get the Federal Police to storm into the offices of one of Australia’s largest media organisations to conduct searches as if they were a front for a multi national drug syndicate – just to save Corby from herself.

    Let’s use the brain!]


    There’s nothing to see!

  2. “@TaraNipe: MT @MarkRDuckett: Morrison thinks it’s #asylumseekers’ fault for being persecuted, like its kids fault they are molested by priests #auspol”

  3. Diogenes

    [While I have no sympathy for a douchebag like Morrison, being Immigration Minister has to be the shittiest job in the country]

    Very doubtful. I won’t bother composing a list.

    I’m not even sure it counts as an undesirable job. Certainly, it’s awesomely well paid. As is true in most cases, it would be easy to wear it like a crown of thorns, but really that’s up to you and the company you keep.


    “Mr McArdle yesterday issued a press release claiming the days of Queenslanders subsidising energy sources that “were not commercially viable” should be declared over by an Abbott Government panel that will review the Renewable Energy Target. ”

    Oh dear:

    “FOR the Business Council, the measure of the success of the new free trade agreement with Korea is the access it will achieve for Australian exporters”.

    The Solution? Cut Import tariff’s.

  5. On the Education Debate

    It does not matter what the class size is, teachers’ qualifications, or wage, or what the mother thinks (unless she has no contact with the father), or her input, what matters is the father.

    If the father doesn’t think education is good for his children, then his children don’t think so, either.

    Men need to step up to the mark. And quickly.

  6. vic @ 1563

    from your link

    [■ Senior navy officers and customs officials face possible disciplinary action over six incursions into Indonesian waters while turning back asylum-seeker boats.]

    Read more:

    So the navy has to shoulder the blame for obeying orders.

    As for the interpreter, Azita Bokan, I’m glad she’s a woman of integrity. Hope she gets a good lawyer.

  7. Edwina StJohn,

    [I dont understand why crossing Indonesia’s maritime border is a big deal]

    Gad, Sir! You have the uncanny knack of calling a spade a slope, Sir!

    I couldn’t agree more! Let’s reclaim our manifest destiny one more time! Let’s set sail and show everyone that, compared to us, the Vikings were like a knot of nancy-boys!

    And by jingo, you’re right again, Sir! We’ve got some unfinished business to attend to up in Nam and Korea! Let’s show ‘em that, if they thought Rambo was tough, our very own Three-Star makes him look like Larry Limp-Wrist!

    And as for the Chinese, Sir – they better roll over and play dead, cos we’ve got our own wall-punching Oxford Blue to lead our Boxer Rebellion up there!

    Oh, and by the way, old chap, there’ll be a few aperitifs ready for you in the Officers’ Lounge before you sling your hook and set sail to give those dagos what for. Unfortunately, I can’t join you – old war wound, y’know – but they’ll send you happily on your way.

    Good luck, old bean and, be assured, the Chinese Navy is nothing more than a collection of old junks.

    See you in Maxim’s! Toodle-pip…

  8. victoria

    [If Morrison had any integrity, he would resign immediately]

    How quaint.

    you forget

    a) the LNP does not accept any Westminster conventions if they result in snouts out of troughs; and

    b) Morrison is a US “christian” who (weirdly) believe Geesuss only liked rich, white, militarily thugs .

  9. [victoria
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 11:26 pm | PERMALINK

    If Morrison had any integrity, he would resign immediately]

    That will never happen: Integrity and Morrison do not compute.

    On the other hand, Eddie and Morrison are blood brothers.

  10. Edwina,

    [Silly AC – sounds like you need a good session from a sjambok.]

    Please don’t air your fetishes in public like that- it’s totally unedifying.

  11. I wish someone, less indolent than me, would compile a list of Who Owns The Abbott Government.

    There seems a strong correlation between big funders and policy decisions in favour of their owners against the public good.

    – We know that the assistant Minister for Health is owned by the obesity industry;

    – The Attorney General is owned by Hollywood (NewsCorps)

    – The assist treasurer is owned by the BigBanks

    – The whole Cabinet is owned by Big Coal

    who else?

  12. Edwina St John(or is it Ed??) and do you know ?|________
    I see from post 1541.. you are back to yout old slanderous zionist tricks about me again…when will you ever learn.?? or are you too stupid ……and it seems you have nothing to say about the IDF and the torture of Palestinian kids…some as young as 5 years old…others cruxified in the cross on the jail walls for hours….
    As you haven’t yet seen(???) the 4 Corners program…have a good look…then defend Israel if you can !

    Many others here have seen it …it does your cause no good at all … or can’t you face the awful truth ?

    so while you go on slandering me on this site ,I will post it hoping for a wider audience. each time ..all bad news for the zionist cause

  13. Totally off topic. Can any of our QLD colleagues please tell me if the Gold Coast light rail is up and running yet. I just read that the first stage was scheduled to be finished by January 2014.

  14. swamprat…1573________who owns who in Canberra ??
    Junk foods and the Booze industry seem to own the Asst-Health Minister Nash

    and by her statements whilst in Israel , Julie Bishop must be owned by Netanyahu …or Mr Yahoo as I hear him called in some US blogs…where he is now most unpopular(especially in the White House)

  15. What’d the story in Perth re Abbott not now funding a public transport scheme that Gillard approved?

    Will it be a issue in the Senate by-election in WA ???
    and how important ??>
    can a WA poster tell me

  16. [davidwh
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 11:46 pm | Permalink
    Darn I believe it ran for the first time this week and had an accident on Day 1.

    Thanks David. Nothing serious I hope.

  17. deblonay

    [swamprat…1573________who owns who in Canberra ??
    Junk foods and the Booze industry seem to own the Asst-Health Minister Nash

    and by her statements whilst in Israel , Julie Bishop must be owned by Netanyahu …or Mr Yahoo as I hear him called in some US blogs…where he is now most unpopular(especially in the White House)]

    I would think few in the LNP are owned by Yahoo. They are owned by the US.

    She probably thinks that showing her inability to have a independent thought will get her a pat on the head from fat men in Washngton.

    It’s what lots of Australian MPs think (both LNP/ALP).

    It’s the craving to be a part of an Empire, now that Britain has very few Big Guns and the USofA still does, though they’re increasingly rusty..

    Sad and Pathetic, I know, but thats Australia.

  18. Darn no and I just checked and it has been running trials since October. Apparently a vehicle bounced off the train causing minor damage to both.

  19. [davidwh
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 11:59 pm | Permalink
    Darn no and I just checked and it has been running trials since October. Apparently a vehicle bounced off the train causing minor damage to both.

    Thanks again David. I’ve been keeping my eye on its progress. Apparently the long term plan is to have 40km of it – all the way to Coolangatta.

  20. Deblonay

    The State libs were returned a year ago with grand plans for Perth’s public transport. They just forgot to mention that none of it would happen unless the Feds kicked in big dollars. I don’t know that Gillard ever promised the money but Abbott’s win meant there was no money for public transport anywhere, let alone Perth.
    the Barnett government has now put all projects on ice, out to 2017 in some cases, which is beyond the next election. Probably will never happen.

  21. WA state libs public transport plan was like the Fed libs NBN plan. A policy that was never going to happen as a response to a labor policy, so they could say “look, we have a policy too”. Labor was going to connect all the universitys that are currently seviced by busses, with light rail.

  22. Edwina StJohn@1494

    Read the 3rd para and you will understand the reference. This is the person Guytaur quotes as an authority on Operation Sovereign Borders!

    So, this person is a libertarian who went through a trial over distributing “banned” material, and you have a problem with that, to the point where you think that disqualifies her on having a point of view ?
    You really are an odd sort of person ESJ (apart from fairly concerning fascist view points)

  23. Deblonay

    Don’t know that people blame Abbott. Barnett and his transport minister buswell have coped heaps. It’s not as though Abbott turned over a decision. If labor had won in September Barnett would still have had to convince them to fund his plans. He might have had a chance but with roads prime minister Abbott he probably didn’t even ask.
    I think I have read that the greens are running the line that it is abbott’s fault but that’s like a causes b, b causes c then it’s a’s fault.

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