BludgerTrack: 50.0-50.0

On the back of the Coalition’s best poll result since November, the BludgerTrack aggregate finds Labor’s two-party lead evaporating and the Coalition back in charge on the seat projection.

The slump in Labor support recorded in the year’s first Nielsen poll has been exactly enough to erase a two-party lead in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which it had enjoyed since mid-December. This was despite a strong result for Labor from Essential Research, which appears to be maintaining its curious status as a lagged indicator. On the state breakdowns, the biggest movement is in Victoria, where Nielsen had Labor’s lead at a well below-par 52-48. This has helped cut the Victorian swing on BludgerTrack from 7.9% to 4.3%, and reduced Labor’s projected seat gain from five to two. Elsewhere, Labor is down one seat each in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and the Northern Territory. The overall projection is now for a Coalition absolute majority, providing another indication that the BludgerTrack model considers the electoral terrain to be weighted in the Coalition’s favour. Leadership ratings from Nielsen provided further evidence of diminishing support for Bill Shorten, who is now only fractionally ahead of Tony Abbott on net approval. Abbott’s lead of about 10% as preferred prime minister has nonetheless been stable since early December, as has his slightly negative net approval rating. Full results as always on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,335 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.0-50.0”

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  2. I suspect Labor will not make that mistake twice.

    [ margo kingston ‏@margokingston1 1h

    Stupid Labor nice. Rudd jobs for Nelson, Fischer, Hill, no inquiries into Howard admin. Son of Howard kicks Labor to death, appoints cronies
    ]

  4. Jimmyhaz

    Yes but surely someone has tapped him on the shoulder and pointed out the flaws although some ministers like to think they know better than anyone else.

  10. I agree with Amis. You cant even watch decent HBO shows without buying into Murdoch’s ludicrously outdated white elephant tech Foxtel.

    Its so yesterday, cable. WHat a joke, what is this,the 90s? But through sweetheart deals, scams and political influence he get it grandfathered into the future, well past its use-by, the alternative sources gets shut down, and we get to party like its 1999 forever.

    Like any good capitalist the main thing Rupert fears is competition.

  12. mexican @2304

    Given the public debate surrounding his position, I’m not sure there is anyone in any position of power with the requisite knowledge to do so.

  13. So, according to BBC (on ABC24) the Ukrainian President is calling it a coup and is not going to resign. I’d think now it all depends on Russia’s response. Given that Putin doesn’t do finesse or subtlety this could get very ugly.

  14. The quetion of the peninsula of the Crimea will be interesting now
    _________________

    In Kruschev’s time it was made part of the Ukraine for administrative reasons(Ihe was a Ukrainian ) though it’s Russian and has the massive Russian naval base at Sebestapol…which was almost totally destroyed by the Nazis in 1942…and then rebuilt after the war

    The Russians will NEVER give it up

    Anyway the “deposed :President says there has been a coup and he is still President…and he is now in the Russian-speaking city of Karkiv where he will have much support one assumes
    This may hedald a split as Russia will back him as will the Russians who make up much of the population in the eastern region
    Two Ukraines ???

  17. Operation Soveriegn Borders
    Who is looking after our borders?
    Can’t be the Navy as they don’t know where our borders start and finish.
    Shown by how many times they have encroached into Indonesias Soveriegn Waters,6 Times which is 5 too many.
    Maybe we need Captains that can read maps or G.P.S equipment or an immigration minister who doesn’t lie all the time.

  20. Funnily enough I have the SPIN for our Navy crossing into Indonesias waters,we were looking for the piece of string floating on the water that seperates our 2 waters.

  21. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    These clowns should never have been let near public schoolchildren!
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-23/biblezine-complaint-sparks-probe-into-religious-educator/5277766
    Morriscum late on Saturday night admits he is a misleading flake!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/scott-morrison-admits–information-he-gave-on-manus-riot-was-wrong-20140222-339hs.html
    Here’s Bianca Hall’s take on it.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/disquiet-at-aid-without-liability-20140222-338l7.html
    Turnbull puts his foot down and this is what hapens!
    http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/mobiles/travellers-to-pay-telstra-up-to-500-more-20140222-3398x.html
    I hope Hadley has a nice week off.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/ray-hadley-off-air-for-a-week-after-application-for-avo-20140222-338zg.html
    What a surprise.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/modelling-finds-gp-fee-no-moneysaver-20140222-338zd.html
    Abbott has subjugated all vestiges of decency and moderation in his party.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-partys-moderate-voice-goes-silent-under-tony-abbotts-leadership-20140222-3391c.html
    Sinodinis is playing with fire here.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/beware-of-getting-burnt-in-the-financial-services-boilerroom-culture-20140221-337kc.html
    This is what Cathy Wilcox thinks it has all come to.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html

  22. mari
    The little champ is now 2.1 kg (look! I’ve changed the unit of measure) and should be going home in 3 weeks. He is doing very well.

  23. Happy Clapper Abbott sitting back happy as Larry whilst 1000’s of Australian jobs are consigned to the dustbin.When does this habitual liar start producing the million jobs promised during the election.I know, they were Non Core and not in writing.

  25. With Morriscum admitting his sliming of the AS it would be a good time to hear about one of them. This is about the guy that was killed.

    [A group of contractors who all met Berati on Manus island sent Guardian Australia an exclusive statement describing him as a “gentle giant”……….

    Reza always waited and looked forward to meeting with us and reading with him. He studied a lot,” the group said.

    “He used to always pick up bugs and moths off the ground and put them back in the garden, worried that someone would step on them. (The guys used to feed the moths to cane toad frogs around the compound for fun… There wasn’t much else to do…) He used to try and stop them.”

    They continued: “Reza also always helped staff hand out medical slips and appointment slips to those in the same compound as him. He wanted to keep busy to avoid boredom and keep his mind active.”
    …….“Reza worked out in the gym a lot and taught his friends how to stay fit and healthy. He helped his friends learn how to use the gym equipment.”]

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/21/manus-dead-asylum-seeker-iranian-reza-berati

  26. One would have thought that there would have been leaks from within the navy by now on what really happened for multiple ships to misunderstand where the border was. The navy has and is been held up to ridicule by the actions of the happy clapper.
    Which leads me to the question why did Abbott put a army guy in charge where most of the action was on to be on the water. Could it be assumed the navy might be more knowledge of water issues. Maybe not?

  27. And from the Land of the Free –

    A Tea Party nutter joins in the Kentucky Senate race.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/02/22/pack-babies-grab-old-ladies-everyones-longer-safe-kentucky/
    All of the Repugs’ Obamacare “horror stories” seem to get debunked.
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/02/21/1279312/-Are-there-any-real-Obamacare-horror-nbsp-stories
    Bill Maher on “personalised news” that is becoming more prevalent on the internet.
    http://www.mediaite.com/tv/mahers-new-rule-hearing-stories-that-confirm-your-beliefs-isnt-news-its-fox-news/
    Bill Maher with some funny masturbation pamphlets.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/22/bill-maher-overcoming-masturbation_n_4838140.html

  29. [
    Casey Nelson ‏@LTO_cambodia 7h

    Considering current local politics, it doesnt seem wise of Australia to encourage Cambodia to create detention camps for unwanted immigrants
    ]
    Where is this guys sense of adventure. We have stuffed up the rule of law in Nauru, have thugs running detention centers in PNG. Bigger, better, lets see what trouble we can make in Cambodia.

  31. BK

    [All of the Repugs’ Obamacare “horror stories” seem to get debunked.]
    The Koch brothers appear again. Truly appalling people. They make Rupe appear positively benign.

    [the tale of one Julia Boonstra of Michigan, wholesaled by the Koch-founded conservative organization Americans for Prosperity.]

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