BludgerTrack: 50.0-50.0

On the back of the Coalition’s best poll result since November, the BludgerTrack aggregate finds Labor’s two-party lead evaporating and the Coalition back in charge on the seat projection.

The slump in Labor support recorded in the year’s first Nielsen poll has been exactly enough to erase a two-party lead in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which it had enjoyed since mid-December. This was despite a strong result for Labor from Essential Research, which appears to be maintaining its curious status as a lagged indicator. On the state breakdowns, the biggest movement is in Victoria, where Nielsen had Labor’s lead at a well below-par 52-48. This has helped cut the Victorian swing on BludgerTrack from 7.9% to 4.3%, and reduced Labor’s projected seat gain from five to two. Elsewhere, Labor is down one seat each in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and the Northern Territory. The overall projection is now for a Coalition absolute majority, providing another indication that the BludgerTrack model considers the electoral terrain to be weighted in the Coalition’s favour. Leadership ratings from Nielsen provided further evidence of diminishing support for Bill Shorten, who is now only fractionally ahead of Tony Abbott on net approval. Abbott’s lead of about 10% as preferred prime minister has nonetheless been stable since early December, as has his slightly negative net approval rating. Full results as always on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,335 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.0-50.0”

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  1. G@2244

    Just so many hours wasted on the raking over “the boats”.

    Sure, it is a divisive issue – bit like the Chamberlains I guess – way back when. Either they wee as guilty as sin, or pure as the driven snow. Same applies to the boats in terms of ready-made arguments over the barbie.

    However, with the smashing – though expected win for Labor in Brisbane, what did boats have to do with any of it at the end of the day?

    With the mooted 3000 jobs going from Qantas and not a day passing the some firm has gone belly up, that is where the focus should be.

    This is where the conservatives are vulnerable as they can only spin “It will all get better in the future, trust me” line for so long.

    At the moment the conservatives have a few months of “blame Labor” to rely on, but after the next budget, zero, zilch, nada.

    As one or two have pointed out here, Abbott needs RCs and the like with something to beat Labor over the head with for the next two years, as the economy does not look like shining glory any time soon.

    No set of BISONS for Abbott at all I would have thought.

  2. Dave

    Bowen is on Insiders. His attack on Morrison I expect to be good. The panel will be better.

    Gerard Henderson squirming will be fun to watch.

  3. guytaur

    Russia has them by the energy and financial short and curlies. Also the ethnic and Russian speaking population is large.Meanwhile the opposition is united only by a common enemy. The russkiys refer to Ukraine as “little Russia” .By fair means or foul they are not going to let it go EU.

  4. guytaur

    Gerard will be Gerard and in between defending fellow Santa fanboi PMBO continue his fight against godless communists and their threat to civilisation as we know it.

  5. poroti

    This was Putin’s big push. His allies lost.

    The what happens next bit I referred to was about the Russia Ukraine relationship.

    However the Russian speaking Ukrainians have lost

  6. [So what is Scoot Morrison doing sending our press releases at 9.46pm on a Saturday night?]

    Hoping it is picked up by the Sunday political shows tomorrow morning?

  7. poroti@2257


    By fair means or foul they are not going to let it go EU.


    All of this is far from over – unless putin gets what he wants.

    Yet the traditional view is Ukrainians hate the russians with a passion.

    Young Ukrainian want a future which gives them access to the west and all they perceive comes with that – rightly or wrongly.

  8. Awww a lot of killjoys here about Henderson.

    Seriously at least now he will be too busy doing defend and not attack.

    He will get a barb or two. Not the narrative that was planned for.

  9. “@oliverlaughland: To reiterate. That release also strongly suggests a concession that Reza Berati was killed INSIDE the Manus detention centre.”

  10. guytaur:

    Henderson is a long-standing Liberal apologist. He won’t even blush at having to defend anything the party has done. After all, he’s been spruiking Abbott for the last 4 years. Why should it be any different now?

  11. confessions

    Yes Henderson will do that. He does squirm though. We have seen it when David Marr has pointed out a thing or two from what I remember.

  12. ‘Fess –

    [ After all, he’s been spruiking Abbott for the last 4 years. Why should it be any different now? ]

    And a decade plus before that, spent defending howard for whom he was COS.

  13. guytaur, dave:

    Abbott is the most odious federal Liberal leader in my lifetime. If Hendo can go on national TV defending him, then I’m guessing nothing the coalition does in govt would ever earn his ire.

  14. confessions

    If this had happened under Labor (good reason it did’t) the operation would have been shut down the centre.

    That is the respect I see Labor having for people in care.

    Morrison truly showing why people call him Morriscum

  15. “@shustry: Russia appears to be preparing a grab for parts of Ukraine. Senior Moscow delegates in Kharkiv. Crimea asking for “protection” from Rus army”

  16. [ Scott Morrison admits information he gave on Manus riot was wrong

    Australian security staff will be investigated over their role in the Manus Island detention centre riot that left one man dead and scores injured, Immigration Minister Scott Morrison has conceded.

    In an extraordinary statement issued late last night, Mr Morrison admitted that much of the information he had given to the Australian public since Monday’s riot was now in doubt.

  17. [Apparently Hockey is pushing the G20 to set an upgraded target for world growth.]

    Hockey is a economic moron absolute, hockeynomics is cat in the hat stuff.

    So yeh…lets just print even more trillions to get that growth going….Japan, China, USA have done it all in over drive. But it doesn’t work unless they start trading with Martians….all they are left with is massive over leveraging permeating every sector of life, and nothing is going to change now until that is dealt with…and it wont be pretty. Got to drain the lungs before you can breath again.

  18. Dave

    What a tangled web we weave.

    I find it amazing in this day and age that a politician could think he could lie about a death in custody. Maybe in some dictatorships , or even Israel, but the western world? You lie at your peril.

  19. victoria@2275


    Morrison should just bloody well rresign. He is an utter embarrassment

    Vic – agree , but he won’t be doing so soon, unless a lot more dirt surfaces.

    The flunkies, including the three Star well before him.

  20. guytaur

    I am on my tablet and everything went haywire on my comment to Diogenes, finished up having to reboot to get back to scratch again So guess I was lucky it only did multiple posting with typos in it 😀

  21. mari

    @dannolan: Update every iOS device you have to the right variant of 7 or 6 NOW or your comms over 3/4G are not secure and can’t be trusted.

    Due to SSL verification bug

  22. mari

    Just update and you will be fine. Will get rid of anything hackers may have put on during your trip. Apparently the bug was there since 6 or two years

  23. Wigan have scored again from a knock on. They gave it to him coz there are more Wigan supporters at the game (Sydney Football Stadium) than the Chooks LOL

  24. Crimea was part of Russia from the eighteenth century till the mid 50s when the Soviet presidium transfered it to the Ukraine. There is still a Russian majority despite the Tartars gradually returning from exile. Would Russia go to war over the Crimea? I think it might.

  25. [@shustry: Russia appears to be preparing a grab for parts of Ukraine. Senior Moscow delegates in Kharkiv. Crimea asking for “protection” from Rus army]

    Partitioning Ukraine is probably the best solution. The eastern and southern areas are not Ukrainian and have never wanted to be.

  26. Re the Ukraine..and the EU________There is no question of the Ukraine “joining the EU’..they were offered closer association ..which is a very fdifferent thing….

    The EU has talked of a matter of”fiscal reform” which is the Bankers word for harsh economic measures as they did to the poor people of Greece’..
    This would be a harsh trauma for millons of ukrainians… and the Russian speaking people of Eastern Ukraine would not accept this…the country will then face partition

    The Russian see this as a move to extend the NATO machine to teir border
    They hold after all the energy card as Ukraine has to use Russian oil and gas…from pipelines…and in the end the Russians will make life very difficult for the Ukrainians””can Germany or the USA supply them with their energy needs I think the EU is no solution

  27. [I think you are right. It would also mean Russia more likely to let the smaller Ukraine have its EU treaty.]

    Western Ukraine could actually join the EU in a few years. Let the Russians have the Donbass rustbelt.

  28. [Would Russia go to war over the Crimea? I think it might.]

    Yes I agree. They went to war over Abkhazia, a rat-hole no-one has ever heard of. But Sebastopol is one of the great shrines of Russian military history, and a 100% Russian city.

  29. Zoomster

    You are just WRONG but too stubborn to admit it.

    I am Soooooo!!!!! glad you know more that 6 HC judges. Have you though about applying for immediate appointment to the bench?

  30. Looks like i have not missed much today besides having someone openly agreeing not once but twice with positions i haev openly stated, not bad considering the silly billy in question reckons we never agree 😉

    O and the ALP won a by-election and yesterday Joe confirmed that he either doesn’t understand economics or is being badly advised.

  31. Re Ukraine
    According to the Israeli newwspaper “Haaretz” the Chief Rabbi of Kiev has warned Jews in that city to be ready to flee if they are threatened by the far-right …and often anti-semitic groups…in the now dominant opposition in Kiev

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