Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

As the shine comes off Labor’s recent polling surge in Newspoll and Nielsen, Essential Research has them finally moving into the lead.

As other polls appear to be heading back in the other direction, the slow-moving Essential Research has Labor finally breaking into a lead of 51-49, compared with 50-50 over recent weeks. Labor has cracked 40%, up one point on last week, with the Coalition down two to 41%, the Greens steady on 8% and the Palmer United Party up a point to 4%. Other findings gauge concern about employment (55% express concern they or someone in their immediate family will lose their job in the next 12 months, up from 47% in August 2012), car industry assistance (46% think the government didn’t do enough to maintain car manufacturing in Australia, compared with 36% who think it did enough), the government’s approval of the coal port expansion at Abbot Point and related concerns about dredging and dumping at the Great Barrier Reef (66% disapprove of the decision, 41% strongly, with only 17% approving), and respondents’ level of interest in Schapelle Corby (71% professing little or no interest). Results courtesy of Bernard Keane at Crikey, with the full report to follow shortly.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,627 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. [The AS are on PNG soil and are going to have to mind their P’s and Q’s when dealing with the locals –]

    No, they dont.

    They are in a detention center, separated from the “locals”. The Australian Govt has determined that they be detained there and its all paid for by the Australian Govt. The Australian Govt (in the person of the minister) has a responsibility to keep them safe, and protect them from harm while they are there. The only locals involved are paid staff who have absolutely no right to physically assault someone simply because they object to a comment they made. Being “provoked” is no excuse for ANY of the G4S staff involved or any Police involved.

    [also find a way to make peace with the guards.]

    If the detainees were attacked, then it is not up to them to make peace. Its up to the operator of the center to sack any guards involved, for the Australian Govt to make sure it resources the detention center (in terms of trained staff) such that this cant happen again, and for procedures to be put in place such that EVERYONE involved in that center knows that ANYTHING they do there can be scrutinized in detail. Oh, and that happenings there wont be hidden away. You know, a bit of the transparency Tony promised.

  2. Dee @ 1448: Don’t forget the Voyager case, just over 50 years gone, where it took two Royal Commissions to winkle out the salient fact that the captain of the Voyager had a “drink problem”.

  3. ESJ

    There was a lot of talk Labor would give Rann Rome in exchange for leaving quietly so he’s probably not too unhappy with the move.

    As you say his wife has Italian heritage and owns a home in southern Italy.

  4. Sorry I meant to say why they gave Rann Rome Diogenes? Why do you think and is the No2 Wife being of Italian extraction sufficient qualification?

    Isnt this something Labor should oppose?

  5. The story I heard about the incursions into Indonesian territory was that on 2 occasions official border maps given to the RAN by the Indonesians were at too coarse a scale to identify small islands and other landforms like peninsulas etc.

    The argument went that it was up to Indonesia to define its own borders and that the RAN was only following what they were told by official Indonesian sources.

    The other three occasions (now it seem there may have been one more, making a total of six) were due to the local officers on the spot using their initiative and taking asylum seeker boats closer to shore to minimize safety issues.

    Of course if they hadn’t been hijacking asylum seeker boats in the first place they wouldn’t have been within coo’ee of Indonesian territory.

    Ultimately it was a flawed policy that put Australian navy ships in a position where violations of Indonesia’s territorial sovereignty were an issue, even if they were done with the “best of intentions”.

    All it’s done is piss off Indonesia and now the chinese are giving us the silent treatment, too.

    The government ranks has too much testoterone in its system. They listen too much to the Ray Hadleys of this world to whom they give most of their interviews). The Michael Smith even thought he could complain directly to the government about his treatment from Google is a disgrace. But then again, it was his wedding that Brandis et al turned up to on the public tit.

    The 7 Network, too complained about being raided, and Turnbull, to his shame, rang them up and apologized. We won’t be seeing the AFP raiding too many more media offices in the near future… unless of course they’re ABC offices, which I fear will receive a visit any day.

    There’s a nasty, self-reinforcing web of blokiness being built up between the media and this government. The country’s being run by this club, with a few climate science denying bizoids thrown into the mix.

    The whole concept of the separation of powers and independent operations is being tossed out the door as Abbott and his minister dispense privilege and favours, and in return receive them.

    When media scum like News Ltd and the tabloid TV networks start setting themselves up as holier than thou, you know something’s beginning to pong, rather strongly.

  6. I was a member of the ALP for 36 years and was once a federal candidate, which cost me a large amount of money and much personal and professional trouble.

    I left the party when Obeid’s corruption was exposed by ICAC. I determined to vote deliberately informal on the night Gillard was deposed.

    I have seen nothing in the performance of either the NSW or Federal opposition yet that has induced me to change my vote. Instead I feel liberated by the restraints of party and comment on PB as I see fit.

    When the ALP purges itself of the corrupting influence of union chancers I will return to the party. Hopefully this will occur while I am still alive

  7. Does anyone know how Immigration managed to put the list on a public site?

    It’s almost so incompetent you wonder if there was a deliberate sabotage.

    If my office put a list of my patients on the website, I’d be taken to pieces by the Medical Board. Morrison really needs to be dealt with very severely by someone.

    Can the Privacy Commissioner do anything or will Morrison get off as they aren’t Australian citizens?

  8. Edwina StJohn @ 1454: Presumably Mr Rann is employed either on a contract or under the Public Service Act. Either way, he would have rights arising from being moved on. The government might well have decided it would be better to have him gainfully employed in Rome than to have to explain to the public why it was worth paying several hundred thousand dollars just to give Mr Downer the lifestyle to which he had become accustomed.

  9. [Sorry I meant to say why they gave Rann Rome Diogenes? Why do you think and is the No2 Wife being of Italian extraction sufficient qualification?

    Isnt this something Labor should oppose?]
    Why?

  10. Interesting shift in the wind…..?

    Has anyone noticed the number of ABC news items which now begin…… “According to Fairfax media”…..???

    As far as the Voyager is concerned, the question was always “Drunken Duncan”.

    Sad but true as it seems to have turned out.

  11. If it’s any consolation, a lot of the Young Liberals of today become the SAlties of tomorrow.

    Also the more academically rigorous the campus, the less Young Liberals there are.

  12. [The government might well have decided it would be better to have him gainfully employed in Rome than to have to explain to the public why it was worth paying several hundred thousand dollars just to give Mr Downer the lifestyle to which he had become accustomed.]
    Apparently Downer wanted to go to the U.S.(i.e. take Beazley’s job), but that didn’t end up happening on the grounds that Downer is a pissant.

  13. No Pedant that is incorrect. I think you will find an ambassador is of equivalent rank to a Cabinet Minister and has the same tenure.

    Presumably the P.I.C.T and the lIberals think the second wifes ethnicity is qualification enough, Thank goodness.

  14. Edwina StJohn

    [
    Blessed are the kerb crawlers for they shall inherit a safe Labor seat ]
    I must bow to your hands on experience of that 😉

  15. [Blessed are the kerb crawlers for they shall inherit a safe Labor seat eh Bushfire Bill ?]

    A more than usually impenetrably obtuse comment from you Edwina.

  16. Edwin/a St John

    I suppose you were really upset when John Hewson’s Wife No 2 came on the scene. And that’s why you voted Labor in 1993.

    Were you happy when Amanda Vanstone took Mandarin lessons at taxpayers expense, when she thought she was going to get the Beijing post?

    Or were you just as happy to pay for her Italian lessons?

    Did you care when Jeff Kennett’s wife left him?

    Were you upset when you heard the Liberal LOTO in Victoria had a mistress and was awarded with a London post to get him away from public glare?

    Or are you always such an imbecile?

  17. Dee I think it’s more likely the navy had a lot of their electronic gear turned off to mask their presence and relied on less reliable methods and simply stuffed up. That seems a lot more likely than deliberate intent to invade another country’s territory. But if it was a government ordered act then I’m sure a Wilke somewhere will leak that information. Then all hell will break out.

  18. [Presumably the P.I.C.T and the lIberals think the second wifes ethnicity is qualification enough, Thank goodness.]
    Hang on a second, Mandy Vanstone’s qualification for going to Rome was that she liked wearing Versace shirts.

  19. Imacca

    Simple then the centre needs to be put elsewhere, because I can guarantee in PNG, their rules will apply.

    As I said above – just saying how it is.

    Next time it will be far worse. Guaranteed.

  20. ESJ

    [Sorry I meant to say why they gave Rann Rome Diogenes? Why do you think and is the No2 Wife being of Italian extraction sufficient qualification?

    Isnt this something Labor should oppose?]

    I am reliably informed that any idiot can be an ambassador and that Rann is a perfectly reasonable choice.

    They have permanent staff who make all the real decisions and it’s largely a ceremonial position.

  21. Well I think these sort of appointments are appalling – from either the P.I.C.T or the Liberals Diogenese?

    Why give any of these clowns these sinecures? Downer, Rann et al.

  22. Clearly Rann is being given Rome only to avoid tit for tat reprisals for a future P.I.C.T government.

    Bracks only got shafted because he kept going to fundraisers when he hd been announced and hadnt actually moved over there. Dum!

  23. Pedant

    I listened to hours of out pouring from my father inlaw.

    No-one knew what had happened to him in the Christian Brothers orphanage until around the last 15 years or so.

    His mother died when he was six and his father was in the armed forces so was placed with the Christian Brothers and spent twelve long miserable years in the orphanage.

    He and others tried to run away but the police would always bring them back.

    As he and some of the other boys got older they decided to make a complaint.

    Not only did they get a foot up the arse from the police they felt the wrath of more savage bashings from the brothers.

    Some kids, after bashings, just disappeared

    He also spoke of ‘outside’ visitors and select (favourites) boys making themselves scarce because…..

    Counselling had been given over the last few years but he wouldn’t join the class action group.

    He had a heart attack last year and there were an onset of other problems..

    When the doctor, as Kezza puts it, put the finger up the arse he broke down.

    I received a phone call that he was curled up in a ball crying.

    Not only should perps be dealt harsh punishment, so should those who are informed and fail to act.

  24. davidwh@1472

    Dee I think it’s more likely the navy had a lot of their electronic gear turned off to mask their presence and relied on less reliable methods and simply stuffed up. That seems a lot more likely than deliberate intent to invade another country’s territory. But if it was a government ordered act then I’m sure a Wilke somewhere will leak that information. Then all hell will break out.

    That doesn’t seem likely. GPS is passive – it receives signals, and does not have to emit them, and even old civilian versions are accurate to 100 metres most times. Garmin, a commercial operator, advertises 15 metres on average for their latest model.

    Either is plenty accurate to make sure you don’t cross a border.

  25. Oakeshott Country@1457


    When the ALP purges itself of the corrupting influence of union chancers I will return to the party. Hopefully this will occur while I am still alive

    Yes, we only allow the living to join.

    Although, come to think of it, we have a few members where I am not so sure.. 😛

  26. [Edwina StJohn
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 9:39 pm | PERMALINK
    So everybody does it so its OK kezza2?

    How profound.]
    Absolutely not.
    But considering you like to revel in the gutter then perhaps you should take care of your own shit first, before you throw muck at others.

    But then a fox smells his own stink first.

  27. ESJ

    I argued exactly that a while back. I said there should be job applications and the best person appointed.

    I was told it doesn’t matter who gets the job as they are basically a bludge except for hosting drinks parties.

  28. Dee the fight will be to repeal the Trust Acts in which Church property is held and virtually untouchable.

    The RC and whether it recommends this AND THEN whether State and Federal governments repeal these Trust Acts is the whole ball game!

    I reckon even with the RC theres about a 20% chance of this actually (sadly) happening!

  29. [Edwina StJohn
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 9:47 pm | PERMALINK
    kezza2 , guytaur has a steel prick for you!]

    You’re a pretty repulsive person, ESJ.

    But I guess you already know that. I feel sorry for you.

  30. don

    I bet the navy’s GPS has an warning that goes off when you change from international waters to a country’s waters.

    I don’t believe they didn’t know they had breached Indonesia’s territory.

  31. Shock horror NOT . Australia’s biggest Murdoch suckhole shill like EVA aka Paul Murray says the armed police raid on Ch.7 should be accepted. Police wouldn’t do it with out reason…….apparently.

  32. Edwina StJohn @ 1466: As it happens, I’ve known quite a few Australian Ambassadors in my time, and most of them would be astounded but delighted to know they were “of equivalent rank to a Cabinet Minister”. Of course, an Ambassador can be removed by the Government at any time, by the executive act of withdrawing his or her credentials. But that doesn’t of itself terminate their employment with DFAT. Most Ambassadors are simply DFAT SES officers. Mr Rann, if similarly employed would, in the absence of other provision, enjoy the same rights as his colleagues.

  33. Diogenes @ 1478: If you think any idiot can be an Ambassador, and that it’s the underlings who do the work, you have been badly misinformed. That’s one aspect of the US system, but not how the Australian diplomatic network operates.

  34. davidwh@1472

    [Dee I think it’s more likely the navy had a lot of their electronic gear turned off to mask their presence and relied on less reliable methods and simply stuffed up.]
    Utter crap. They can turn their location transponder all they like. It has ZERO effect on the GPS system. It receives it does not send !!!!

  35. Poroti

    Paul Murray is right about one thing, the Police wouldn’t have done it without reason.

    Somebody does not want Corby to talk believe me 😯

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