Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

As the shine comes off Labor’s recent polling surge in Newspoll and Nielsen, Essential Research has them finally moving into the lead.

As other polls appear to be heading back in the other direction, the slow-moving Essential Research has Labor finally breaking into a lead of 51-49, compared with 50-50 over recent weeks. Labor has cracked 40%, up one point on last week, with the Coalition down two to 41%, the Greens steady on 8% and the Palmer United Party up a point to 4%. Other findings gauge concern about employment (55% express concern they or someone in their immediate family will lose their job in the next 12 months, up from 47% in August 2012), car industry assistance (46% think the government didn’t do enough to maintain car manufacturing in Australia, compared with 36% who think it did enough), the government’s approval of the coal port expansion at Abbot Point and related concerns about dredging and dumping at the Great Barrier Reef (66% disapprove of the decision, 41% strongly, with only 17% approving), and respondents’ level of interest in Schapelle Corby (71% professing little or no interest). Results courtesy of Bernard Keane at Crikey, with the full report to follow shortly.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,627 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 29 of 33
1 28 29 30 33
  1. [Don’t forget the ocean has wind and tides as pointed out by the suppository of all knowledge .]

    Yes but the navy hasn’t worked that out. How is being a political tool in a political farce going for the navy?

  2. DavidWH

    Got it David!

    Far better to allow Australians to believe our navy cannot use navigational equipment than inflame the diplomatic rift with Indonesia.

    Gulp!

    😆

  3. Windhover

    [Your claim that Iran is guilty of crocodile tears is itself an illustration of your double standards. ]

    Umm, no. I’m pointing out that the guy fled Iran as his life was threatened there due to their human rights abuses which makes Iran’s pretend concern for his welfare pretty funny given they clearly didn’t have the same concerns when he was actually in their country.

  4. Oliver Laughland ‏@oliverlaughland Feb 18
    I spoke directly to 2 eyewitnesses on Manus last night, who both told me that PNG police and locals entered the camp

  5. [Umm, no. I’m pointing out that the guy fled Iran as his life was threatened there due to their human rights abuses which makes Iran’s pretend concern for his welfare pretty funny given they clearly didn’t have the same concerns when he was actually in their country.]

    Yeah I agree Diog but it is a bit unpleasant for us to be the ones that actually killed him.

  6. [poroti
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 8:28 pm | PERMALINK
    kezza2

    My father and grandfather died of bowel cancer. I have regular colonoscopy’s and have no problems at all about cracking jokes over the procedure.]

    Nor me. My father, and two of my aunties have had bowel cancer, only one survived.

    I’m pretty sure my comment/s at the time was about the flack Tim Mathieson got because of his quip to the West Indies cricketers about having an Asian doctor do the examination.

    Of course, the msm went into overdrive about his comments.

    And I came back and talked about arses, bottoms, fingers and getting check-ups.

    But of course that meant I had a fetish about arseholes, to some arseholes here.

  7. [Umm, no. I’m pointing out that the guy fled Iran as his life was threatened there due to their human rights abuses which makes Iran’s pretend concern for his welfare pretty funny given they clearly didn’t have the same concerns when he was actually in their country.]

    Perhaps a hearty ‘thank you we are impressed you’ve achieved what we tried and failed to achieve’ would ring more true from Iran.

  8. BK

    [
    Surely Morriscum has bad-mouthed the navy.]
    Total slag off. Accusing them of being unable to do navy stuff 101 6 times in a short time.

  9. [‘Some’ AS picked a fight they couldn’t finish and got their collected arses handed back on a plate.]

    Actually, some of the reports i have read include accusations that people who were NOT involved in any rioting were beaten as well. That will be something for the inquiry to clear up.

    Had to have a larf though when i saw the ABC report on the Navy navigational challenges. 🙂

    Morriscum seems t now be taking the position that the Navy knew where they were but didn’t know where the border was. Sorry, that just doesn’t cut it.

    But the REAL humor was this bit.

    [Recommendation 2
    It is recommended that the Chief of Navy consider each incursion by RAN vessels into Indonesian waters during Operation Sovereign Borders, with regard to any individual lapses in professional conduct.]

    So they are recommending the discipline Captains?? That will generate some whistle blowers and blow away their secrecy if nothing else does. 🙂

  10. Poroti

    Yes, the winds, tides and currents all suck you in to Indonesian waters.

    It’s all like the Bermuda triangle didn’t you know, once it sucks you in the force is, like the song, simply irresistible 😐

  11. From the ABC in cowering mode.

    [A witness to the violence at the Manus Island detention centre on Monday night says guards attacked asylum seekers with sticks and iron bars.]

    See the words, guards attacked – Morrison seems to be lying again. How very Hillsong.

  12. kezza2

    I think the po faced people over Tim’s comment were/are those who have never had the procedure. Them and the Orcs from the Murdochracy. Those that have gone through it would mostly give a chuckle.

  13. [The Abbott government’s plan to sign a free trade agreement with China by September has been dealt a blow after Beijing failed to mention it as a priority for the year ahead.
    Commerce Ministry spokesman Shen Danyang said on Tuesday the government was focused on signing a three-way trade agreement with Japan and South Korea, a standalone deal with South Korea and another regional pact.
    “This year we will give priority to free-trade negotiations with neighbouring countries,” Mr Shen said at the Ministry’s monthly press conference, making no mention of Australia
    ……………………………………………………………………………
    Mr Mei said obstacles included the Australian government being too close to the US and clumsy in its policy towards China. “They have created too many unexpected problems,” he said.
    Meanwhile a PwC report to be released on Wednesday forecasts that Australia’s share of China’s outbound foreign investment may be set to fall.
    “Despite our quality resource assets, geographic proximity and relative political stability, it is possible that China may be somewhat ‘overweight’ in Australia,” it says.]

    http://www.afr.com/p/world/china_cools_on_australia_free_trade_eDQxHJE97xwS55HEWKPCzH

  14. A friend of mine’s father did some contract electronics work for the RAN in the 1970s and he commented recently that he had never met such an incompetent and useless group of people in his life … this coming from a guy who was conscripted into the army for Vietnam war.

    The personnel he had to deal with in Melbourne could not navigate their way out of a paper bag and had no idea about the law of the sea etc and other protocols.

    He refused to have anything to do with Navy personnel after a frigate ‘became lost’ in Port Phillip Bay during shakedown exercises.

  15. dtt

    [Management of Manus Island is Morrison’s responsibility. If it had gone pear shape under Labor then it would have been just as bad.]

    There were plenty of riots and torching of facilities under Labor as well.

  16. [poroti
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 8:47 pm | PERMALINK
    kezza2

    I think the po faced people over Tim’s comment were/are those who have never had the procedure. Them and the Orcs from the Murdochracy. Those that have gone through it would mostly give a chuckle.]
    Yeah, and a lot of them thought accepting a finger up the bum meant an admission of latent homosexuality.

    If only men could bear children, then they’d never have a worry about probing an orifice meaning anything other than a medical check.

    Well, apart from the ears, of course.

  17. WWP @ 1396
    I’m just saying that even if we allow them as mistakes, the government is still responsible for putting policies in place that increase the likelihood of such mistakes in contradiction to the requirement – of their own assertions of the importance of our relationship with Indonesia – that our policies minimise such errors.

    However you look at it, this government has bungled their policies. Not that I ever expect the media will report it as such, they’ve been letting Abbott get away with his contradictions for a long time now.

  18. In fact commercial shipping such as ANL always had an edit thus if a ‘RAN ship is in port check your insurance’ based on their stupidity and incomptence

  19. [The Abbott government’s plan to sign a free trade agreement with China by September has been dealt a blow after Beijing failed to mention it as a priority for the year ahead.]

    The Chinese have a basic problem, they will not negotiate on anything that disadvantages them by $1.

    This is why the FTA talks have been occurring for decades.

  20. Retweeted by Stephen Koukoulas
    Adam Collins ‏@collinsadam 30s

    Ladies and gents, the Liberal Party: RT @mooreryan3 Liberals handing these out at Griffith University orientation. pic.twitter.com/uaLS0l7epZ

    Sign reads “because not everyone can be on welfare”.

    Except them right?

  21. Dee1403 honestly that is a wrong and absurd interpretation of what I said. A deliberate incursion into Indonesian territory is a far worse diplomatic circumstance.

  22. Imacca – no doubt there were AS who were not involved in abusing guards who got bashed as well.

    PNG people will just not be abused by anyone in their own country. They would regard the AS as a ‘tribe’ of their own and made little deferensation between those who did the abusing and those who didn’t.

    Just saying that’s how its seen up there – I am not condoning it.

    The AS are on PNG soil and are going to have to mind their P’s and Q’s when dealing with the locals – also find a way to make peace with the guards. A BIG ask in our culture – but if they don’t this will spiral big time and make the last couple of nights look like a picnic.

    Just saying – for what its woth.

  23. Diogenes

    (and Oakeshott Count(r)y, for that matter)

    I’m astounded at the way you two, in particular, have such a grudge against Labor, although you didn’t display it so much when Labor was in power.

    Now, though, it’s as if the sluice-gate have been opened, and out pours the bilge of 6 years.

    Is that because you both are really Coalition supporters, and were just biding your time paying lip-service to the PB majority, or you’re just hypocrites anyway?

    Or, did I just completely mis-read anything and everything you had to say over the last half-decade or so?

  24. Diogenes

    I’m still glad you avoided catastrophe when you hit a kangaroo, and I still thank-you gratefully for helping with maths stuff.

    But, I must confess, I’m bewildered by your vehement anti-Labor stance.

    As your 1432, yet again, exhibits. Or are you just contrary?

  25. To whom could I possibly be refering?

    In press conferences he often smirks at his own cleverness.
    Many journos confuse his command of his brief with the fact that he rarely reveals any detail of his brief.
    His speciality is demonising asylum seekers with careful use of dog whistling terms.
    He is quick to point the finger at other people when things go wrong under his watch.

  26. Now Now Angus, I think your boss has upset them enough. At some point the Navy is going to tell you both to get stuffed.
    [
    Steven Grant Haby
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 8:53 pm | Permalink

    In fact commercial shipping such as ANL always had an edit thus if a ‘RAN ship is in port check your insurance’ based on their stupidity and incomptence
    ]

  27. [Diogenes
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 9:07 pm | PERMALINK
    kezza

    Actually it’s because we are both doctors so we try to live in the real world.]
    And other professions don’t live in the real world?

  28. RU – The chinese are demanding the right to bring their own workers into Australia to work on their own resources projects on chinese wages and conditions – have been for years and won’t budge an iota.

    No way will Australia either.

    The Chinese are saying the same to us as the Yanks did – our way or no deal and that was all before abbott stumbled onto the scene.

  29. [This one’s fairly low on the level of dirty tricks but the Labor candidate certainly got busted.]
    You mean her volunteers who didn’t follow their instructions.

  30. kezza

    I criticise the Liberals a lot more than I criticise Labor.

    The problem is that some people are so biased that they cannot cope with any criticism of their beloved party and take that criticism as a personal affront. Hence they only remember the bad comments about Labor.

  31. Meanwhile, we have to hear on the news, hour after hour, the revolting self-pity of yet another witness before the Royal Commission. If there is a hell, I would like to think that it has a particularly putrid corner reserved for these vile characters, and for the religious institutions which nurtured them.

  32. [The Chinese are saying the same to us as the Yanks did – our way or no deal and that was all before Abbott stumbled onto the scene.]

    As the saying goes “When elephants mate, many ants get crushed'”

  33. [Diogenes
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 9:13 pm | PERMALINK
    kezza

    I criticise the Liberals a lot more than I criticise Labor.]
    Phew, okay, I must have missed that recently. 😆

    Keep up the good work.

  34. dave, rua
    Then that idiot Abbott should never have said he’d have the deal done within a year and it should be reported as yet another bungle, but Abbott is never held to his own always changing standard, so what the hey.

  35. DavidWH

    Well you said you would rather believe the navy erred and did not deliberately enter Indonesian territory 6 times.

    And recollections that you thought it far worse for the government if so.

    If not, then I apologise!

    I would never have believed our navy could get it so wrong but if they can lose a frigate in Port Phillip Bay…..

  36. Diogenes, why do you think the Libs have given Rann Adelaide? Do you think he is qualified on the basis of wife no2 being of Italian extraction?

  37. https://twitter.com/mooreryan3/status/436071342459191296/photo/1

    Hmm. Proud to be Liberal because not everyone can be on welfare.

    At least they’re honest about the Multi-Billionaires sucking the life out of the welfare teat.

    Oh wait, they’re not talking about the billions of dollars given to the corporate sector. They’re actually talking about the people who prop up capitalism – the pool of unemployed – the reserve workforce.

    Dickheads.

Comments Page 29 of 33
1 28 29 30 33

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *