Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

As the shine comes off Labor’s recent polling surge in Newspoll and Nielsen, Essential Research has them finally moving into the lead.

As other polls appear to be heading back in the other direction, the slow-moving Essential Research has Labor finally breaking into a lead of 51-49, compared with 50-50 over recent weeks. Labor has cracked 40%, up one point on last week, with the Coalition down two to 41%, the Greens steady on 8% and the Palmer United Party up a point to 4%. Other findings gauge concern about employment (55% express concern they or someone in their immediate family will lose their job in the next 12 months, up from 47% in August 2012), car industry assistance (46% think the government didn’t do enough to maintain car manufacturing in Australia, compared with 36% who think it did enough), the government’s approval of the coal port expansion at Abbot Point and related concerns about dredging and dumping at the Great Barrier Reef (66% disapprove of the decision, 41% strongly, with only 17% approving), and respondents’ level of interest in Schapelle Corby (71% professing little or no interest). Results courtesy of Bernard Keane at Crikey, with the full report to follow shortly.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,627 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  2. [absolutetwaddle
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 7:10 pm | PERMALINK
    The tin-foil hat faction is out in force tonight.]

    That’d be the Coalition supporters wearing those tinfoil hats.

    They just can’t accept that the navy was ordered to incurse in Indonesian waters, to “turn back the boats”, to “stop the boats”, to “tow-back the boats”, to do anything other than let a boat anywhere near an Australian territory.

    After all, it’s not for the faint-hearted to accept the navy encourages sticking carrots or other phallic-shaped foodstuffs (or indeed milk bottles or light bulbs) up each others bums – to make sure they’re altogether now.

    If you admit this happened, then answer this . . .

    Did we inadvertently cross the Indonesian waters? Naaaaaaaaaaaah.

    See. Didn’t happen. How easy was that.

  4. Suck shit Morrison. When will your faith make you realise telling big fat porkies and blaming others has to stop.

    [Guardian Australia, which on Wednesday broke the story of the government’s massive data breach whereby the private information of almost 10,000 people in immigration detention in Australia was published on the Department of Immigration website, welcomes Scott Morrison’s admission that this is an “unacceptable incident” and “a serious breach of privacy by the Department of Immigration and Border Protection”. We welcome the review into how the breach occurred, and the privacy commissioner’s announced investigation.

    However there are a few points in the immigration minister’s statement which require a response.

    Morrison says the information was not “in an easily accessible format within the public domain”. Guardian Australia can confirm that the document was freely available for download from a public area of the department’s website, along with many other public files. The document and the data contained within it were straightforward to access.

    In his statement, Morrison reveals details about the document, including the date of its publication and the type of file. In a subsequent television interview, he named the document. Guardian Australia has not released the name or date of the document, to ensure no further breach of privacy.

    Morrison concludes his statement with this paragraph: “My department will also be requesting that the media organisation that published this data advise if they have disseminated the information to any other parties and to return all copies of the information to the department.”

    No such requests have yet been received by Guardian Australia from the department, but we can confirm that we have never published the data, including in our original story; that we have refused all requests for the data from other news organisations, to protect the privacy of those named; and that we have not disseminated the data in any way.

    Guardian Australia notified the department of the breach before publication, and did not publish until the document had been removed from the department’s website. We also notified the privacy commissioner of the breach.]

  9. It just keeps on keeping on.

    [Victoria faces another blow to its economy after Royal Dutch Shell reportedly sold Geelong refinery, putting 500 jobs at risk.

    The oil major sold the asset and its Australian petrol stations to Dutch-owned oil trader Vitol and the Abu Dhabi Investment Council for about $2.4bn, Fairfax Media reports.

    The refinery, which struggles to compete with larger, more efficient facilities in Asia, faces an uncertain future.

    It is believed that Vitol, the world’s largest oil trader, has earmarked the 60-year-old refinery for closure once it takes control of the business.]

  11. [Has there ever been a case involving $800+ million that wasn’t appealed?]

    Nope, the ATO always exhaust all appeals. Only Hockey gives away almost a billion to his major backer.

  13. kezza2

    “After all, it’s not for the faint-hearted to accept the navy encourages sticking carrots or other phallic-shaped foodstuffs (or indeed milk bottles or light bulbs) up each others bums – to make sure they’re altogether now.”

    Your obsession with male assholes and what is or is not shoved up them can be rather surprising if one hasn’t encountered it for a while.

  15. [“After all, it’s not for the faint-hearted to accept the navy encourages sticking carrots or other phallic-shaped foodstuffs (or indeed milk bottles or light bulbs) up each others bums – to make sure they’re altogether now.”]

    Maybe thats why they got lost, they had a carrot up thier GPS.

  17. [Morrison concludes his statement with this paragraph: “My department will also be requesting that the media organisation that published this data advise if they have disseminated the information to any other parties and to return all copies of the information to the department.”]

    Or, look out, another raid by the AFP – ordered by Brandis – to get hold of all msm data, whether relevant or not.

    The standard has been set. Vis a vis Channel 7, and associates, just yesterday.

    absolutetwaddle

    [Your obsession with male assholes and what is or is not shoved up them can be rather surprising if one hasn’t encountered it for a while.]

    Oh, yes, you’ve discovered my fetish. Funny how it reconciles with the military’s fetish of shoving things up male arseholes. Pity the women were subjected to same. Or doesn’t that fit your bias?

    Not to mention your stupidity.

  19. [Angus Campbell will arrive on Manus Island tomorrow says Immigration Minister Scott Morrison]

    To do what? Run away and try and find the Green zone?

  22. kezza2

    I wouldn’t call it a fetish as I am quite sure you’re able to seek sexual satisfaction in other ways. But yeah, if one was inclined to search for +kezza2 +arse +”poll bludger” in Google, a rather hilarious history of your obsession would pop up.

  25. absolutetwaddle

    And I guess your hilarity would be about men getting a check-up for prostate cancer.

    Laugh your arse off, mate. I’m sure prostate cancer sufferers are in stitches, as we speak.

  27. pom@1350

    Can someone clarify things in regards to the legal position of the Manus Is. detention center. Who is responsible for the compound has the land been annexed from PNG. If PNG police attacked inmates within the compound does that fall within PNG or AU jurisdiction? It seems to me a real problem for Morriscum.

    Its PNG Land and PNG Law.

    Nothing is annexed.

    ‘Some’ AS picked a fight they couldn’t finish and got their collected arses handed back on a plate.

    Now they are crying about it. One poor bloke is dead as well.

    Many if not most AS currently on Manus would have been aware from both the Rudd and the Abbott governments that “they will NEVER be allowed to settle in Australia – nor will there be family reunions”.

    They made poor decisions to come and an even worse decision to abuse the Guards/ mobile squad etc – who of course have totally over reacted. Plus they have blown the money paid over in Indonesia.

  28. @AW, If you select Australian Trends, that’s the topics come up.

    Just because twitter is not Australian, doesn’t mean it does not cover Australian media or topics.

  29. kezza2

    “And I guess your hilarity would be about men getting a check-up for prostate cancer.
    Laugh your arse off, mate. I’m sure prostate cancer sufferers are in stitches, as we speak.”

    Oh good, we’re back on familiar ground. I have no idea what you’re raving about.

  30. [“manus mission general angus campbell sent” the file title in itself is a gem.]

    The story shows Morrison should resign, he is Immigration Minister. He has no right to tell the Army to do anything.

    Tell him to feck off Angus.

  32. Anna Harrington ‏@Anna4H 22m

    @latingle Jon Kudelka @jonkudelka If we had more women in the navy they would be more inclined to stop and ask for directions.

  33. In any case we don’t need to view it in black and white and absolutely decide whether we believe it’s a mistake or not.

    Even if we allow that they might be mistakes, it is this government’s policies that have made possible or increased the chance of such mistakes occurring – by pushing right to the boundaries of what is acceptable – and their own statements of the importance of Australia’s relationship with Indonesia that make such mistakes significant.

    Their policies fail by their own standard.

  34. Stephen C. ‏@2FBS 31m

    So @Australian_Navy towed a boat to within sight of Indonesian land mass and claimed ignorance that they were in Indonesian waters?

  35. guytaur@1381

    dave

    Its not Papua New Guinea picking them up on boats and locking them up in Manus. Its Australia that is the legal reality,

    PNG jurisdiction without any doubt.

    Try and tell PNG otherwise.

  36. [Angus Campbell will arrive on Manus Island tomorrow says Immigration Minister Scott Morrison]

    He was hoping to land in Tasmania for a holiday, but his team isn’t good with directions.

  39. absolutetwaddle

    After losing half a dozen members of my family to different sorts of cancers, if my so-called “fetish” about male arseholes induced anyone on here to get a check-up for prostate cancer, then I’m happy to be called a festishist.

    I wouldn’t wish the end of so many of my closest relatives lives on anyone here.

    If I came across as crass, then I was speaking from raw pain.

    And I don’t give a shit about you or anyone else belittling me for it.

  40. WoW!
    Great security! Was in the complex for two hours before being discovered.

    [An elderly nun who broke into one of the most carefully guarded nuclear facilities in the United States has been sentenced to nearly three years in prison.]

    [Sister Megan Rice, 84, cut through fences and several layers of security at the Y-12 National Security Complex in Tennessee, along with two other members of the pacifist group Transform Now Plowshares, in July 2012.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-19/nun-gets-three-years-in-us-prison-for-nuclear-break-in/5270736

  42. [@PatsKarvelas : Given Labor came up with the PNG solution I don’t get why people are so disappointed by their response. #auspol]

    This only confirms my opinion that Karvelas has no humane instincts whatsoever.

  43. @Dee/1390

    Read that earlier, not really carefully guarded then?

    I suppose all they had to do was drop a grenade or put some sort of explosive…. and you have an big accident…

  44. Just heard on the radio that the navy “miscalculated” where the Indonesian borders were. Did Indonesia keep shifting the islands every time the navy turned their backs ?

  46. [In any case we don’t need to view it in black and white and absolutely decide whether we believe it’s a mistake or not.]

    I think maybe one mistake wouldn’t be that bad, given how often they are neglecting their duties and s@xually assaulting each other well two mistakes would be possible. Six is not something even the dumbest liberal bot would believe, the Indonesians certainly wont.

  48. Yep, absolutely, the Navy inadvertently entered Indonesian waters 6 times.

    They misjudged the angle of the moon every time. Human error on all 6 occasions that is all.

    Hell, of course they knowingly entered Indonesian waters every time. The question is what prompted them to do so?

    The Bludger who said that they needed to ensure boats were returned safely is right on the money – spot on 😎

  50. kezza2

    My father and grandfather died of bowel cancer. I have regular colonoscopy’s and have no problems at all about cracking jokes over the procedure.

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