BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

This week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate puts Labor well into absolute majority territory, marking their sixth consecutive improvement.

The latest weekly BludgerTrack update neatly reflects the results of the most recent Newspoll, ReachTEL and Nielsen polls in landing bang on 52-48 to Labor. The Labor primary vote has a four in front of it for the first time since BludgerTrack opened for business at the start of the year, albeit by the barest of margins, with a 1.4% gain this week coming off a drop for minor parties while the Coalition holds steady at 40.9%. The latest state-level data points have fuelled a blowout in the result for Queensland, and while there has certainly been some indication of softness for the Coalition there recently (notably the 11% swing which showed up in Nielsen), I’m pretty sure the present extent of it will prove to be aberration. The two weakest state swings for Labor happen to be where elections are due shortly, although you might argue that a Holden shutdown effect is yet to come through in South Australia.

This will probably be the last update for the year – certainly Essential Research will not be back until the middle of next month, and I imagine that’s it for Morgan as well. Newspoll has never been in the business of polling beyond early December, but hopefully The Australian will shortly offer state breakdowns from its accumulated post-election polling so a bit more ballast can be added to the BludgerTrack state dataset.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,089 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

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  2. Psephos

    [
    If anyone wants some good holiday viewing, the whole of Jacob Bronowski’s “The Ascent of Man” is on Youtube]
    What a great series it was/is. It was the very first programme I watched on recorded video. Our school had a video recorder donated , the size of a suitcase back then. Buggered if I can remember the class we were meant to be taking, history, theology , whatever . BUT the master showed us the program every week and even we bolshie callow youths were enthralled by the bespectacled one.

  3. I used to take over the counter cold and flu medicines when I needed them. They don’t cure the cold but they suppress the symptoms and allow you to get through a busy day. Like the ad said, you soldiered on. One day the chemist asked me if I had high blood pressure, which I had, and strongly recommended that I couldn’t take these medications. They offered other mild medications that don’t work. So now when I get a cold I just have to ‘soldier on’ as best I can.

  4. Christmas is a great time to do those things you keep putting off. I’m watching The Singing Detective and Mahabharata again. I’m also reading Shirer’s Rise and Fall of the Third Reich which is a fantastic read so far.

  7. [I’m also reading Shirer’s Rise and Fall of the Third Reich which is a fantastic read so far.]

    It is a great read, but it’s rather out of date as history. I can recommend Richard J Evans’s recent trilogy, “The Coming of the Third Reich,” “The Third Reich in Power” and “The Third Reich at War.”

  9. Diogenes@3004

    Christmas is a great time to do those things you keep putting off. I’m watching The Singing Detective and Mahabharata again. I’m also reading Shirer’s Rise and Fall of the Third Reich which is a fantastic read so far.

    I read Shirer decades ago and, as far as I am aware, it is still unsurpassed.

  10. Thank you William. A Merry Christmas to you and all that contributes to this fine forum.
    May you all get your hopes and wishes for the day ahead

  12. I have chewed on carrots, drank the beer, emptied the reindeer’s water trough, forged Santa’s signature on certificates authenticating his attendance and now to sleep fitfully wondering whether buying one’s wife clothes is unwise.

    Merry Christmas.

  13. Since the topic of medications has come up (and BB you did the right thing), lemme pass on the excellent “two hat cure” I learned from a country doctor, for when you’re feeling poorly:

    1) Hang a hat over the foot of your bed.
    2) Hop into bed with some pillows to prop you up and a bottle of rum.
    3) Drink until you see two hats.
    4) In the morning you’ll either be cured or dead. If dead, please make another appointment.

    Some double-blind trials are needed to determine whether this works with brandy.

    Anyway, happy Festivus for the rest’v us.

  16. Rossmore

    [BB … Sure it wasn’t Fran Barlow?]

    I’m certain it wasn’t. I’ve been in the one relationship since 1982 …

    Also, I don’t advocate homeopathy. Sick animals need professional care.

  17. On the placebo effect, as I’ve mentioned, I’ve been experiencing a peculiarly painful condition over recent months. Its gradually going away with rest but painkillers are still in the diet. My mother, who is horrified at the very thought of regular medicine and pain relief, has been urging me to take what amount to homeopathic and naturopathic remedies.

    They can have no effect on me so I willingly take them if only to relieve my mother’s anxiety. She’s sure she’s contributing to my eventual recovery and I feel much better because she is less worried for me. At least the placebo effect is working for her.

    Of course, I also have to wear the criticisms of a lover, who assures me that my continued symptoms are due to the treatments of formal medicine, and that if only I accepted that faith-healing and homeopathy will cure me, and were to forgo the so-called therapies foisted on us by pharma-criminals, then I would be instantly and permanently cured. I do not have the heart to reproach her for this. She is well-meaning, after all.

    So I have to take pain as my companion for a while longer, and I console myself knowing that others offer their remedies from love, which, being undiluted, has far more effect on me than their homeopathic prescriptions.

  18. Canberra Memes ‏@CanberraMemes 25m

    News just in: Santa intercepted by Operation Sovereign Borders. Had no papers. Will be detained on Christmas Island indefinitely. Sorry kids

  19. [It is a great read, but it’s rather out of date as history. I can recommend Richard J Evans’s recent trilogy, “The Coming of the Third Reich,” “The Third Reich in Power” and “The Third Reich at War.”]

    As I get older I really struggle with long books. Anything over 500 pages has to be really readable and interesting or it gets tossed after fifty pages which happened not long ago to Montefiores Court of the Red Tsar. Very tedious with lots of petty squabbling between boring people. Even Stalin seemed much less interesting than Hitler.

  21. I also register Christmas wishes to all Bludgers!! We all seem to gain much more than we put in here. Thanks to William as well, for his light touch and (almost) infinite patience.

  23. 3022

    Just because you live in the worlds most populous timezone does not mean that it is the most punctual timezone. It is 3 hour late at the moment.

  24. Well my computer’s just ticked over to midnight, so time to wish everyone a very happy Christmas day – and a special thanks to William for all his hard work just for our benefit throughout the year.

  25. Season’s greetings to all.

    Diogenes, great that you are “enjoying” Shirer.

    Another, related, book that I found riveting is Alan Bullock’s Hitler and Stalin: Parallel Lives.

  26. Thank you William, for your efforts in seeing to it that this blog supplies as much useful psephological information and diversion for your patrons.

    I wish you all the very best for the remainder of the season and a rewarding 2014.

  27. [Of course, I also have to wear the criticisms of a lover, who assures me that my continued symptoms are due to the treatments of formal medicine, and that if only I accepted that faith-healing and homeopathy will cure me]

    briefly:

    I’m probably overstepping the mark here, but seriously, you don’t have to wear this nonsense. ‘Formal’ medicine is proven, whereas homeopathic ‘medications’ are just rubbish.

  28. If it’s xmas on the other side then season’s greetings to everyone. I’m managing with my visiting relatives, but it’s taken a lot of cooking on my part, and there’s still a whole day left to get through before we can do emotional detachment in front of the Boxing Day Test match in 2 day’s time.

  29. Fess

    I’ve noted that you are often the one who links Andrew Elder’s contributions. Did you read his last one for the year on his blog a few days ago. He really gave it to Abbott. He really doesn’t see much future for this government. Hope he’s right.

  30. Merry Christmas to all and thank you William for his insight, wit and patience and for providing this forum (and Crikey too, I guess). Just got back from Christmas lunch/dinner with the Dutch side dealing with our first Christmas without our Oma/Moeder keeping her love of the Christmas spirit alive 🙂 .

    P.S. If anyone’s interested I’m reading “A Frozen Hell” by William R. Trotter on the Winter War and I’m planning on reading the biography of Madame Chang Kai-Shek by Laura Tyson Li. This is even though a matter of a few years ago I couldn’t understand other men’s interest in Military history and reading biographies 😛

    Best wishes for the new year, everyone.

  34. Merry Christmas Bludgers. Have a safe and happy Xmas, other religious holy-day and/or your yearly nosh-up and rellie-rally.

  36. What an auspicious day.

    The straight establishment has “pardoned” Alan Turing for being gay. After he was sentenced to chemical sterilisation.

    And this is reported, breathlessly, by the idiot media.

    I assume, breathlessly, as a sign of how radically benign are straights.

    What a vomit!

  37. [3027
    confessions
    briefly:

    I’m probably overstepping the mark here, but seriously, you don’t have to wear this nonsense. ‘Formal’ medicine is proven, whereas homeopathic ‘medications’ are just rubbish.]

    In general I completely agree, confessions. Since the age of about 7, I’ve been on the run from superstition, of which homeopathy is a variety. But in recent years I’ve had to concede that I cannot easily change the attachments of others. Besides, there is something to be said for accepting people as they are – especially those who are close and who are important. So I don’t push my rationality as hard as I might once have done. (I have been trying to learn from my grandfather, who was a great teacher and, in a way, a curator of peace, affection and dignity.)

    In the meantime, Happy Christmas confessions! I gather your family have descended on you. I hope all goes superbly well 🙂

  38. Merry Christmas, bludgers. Thanks to all for your (mostly) stimulating contributions and the sense of community you create.
    A special thanks to BK, who has become an essential part of my morning routine. I especially love your links to the cartoons. There’s one good thing to be said about an appalling government: it brings out the best in our cartoonists.
    And William, your work, your wisdom and your insights are much appreciated. I hope that your very welcome decision to keep the blog open does not infringe too much on your own ability to relax over the holiday season. Let’s hope all bludgers have made a resolution to be well-behaved and if not kind, at least tolerant, of each other.

  39. Good morning and Merry Christmas Dawn Patrollers!
    The issue with this ad is the statement that “we (Holden) will continue to make great cars for Australia”. Everyone knows is General Motors, not Holden that will be making the products.
    http://smh.drive.com.au/motor-news/holden-ad-leads-to-calls-for-boycott-20131224-2zvmm.html
    I know some cops in SA who have taken it upon themselves to wear these miniature video cameras on duty. They have found them invaluable.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-police-video-camera-trial-begins-20131224-2zvg7.html
    The Global Mail has a good little article on Goliath vs David in 2013.
    http://www.theglobalmail.org/feature/goliath-kicked-davids-ass-in-2013/784/
    A very good article on the debilitating effects that the greed of end user companies put on truck drivers. And the intention of Erica Betz to make matters worse.
    https://theconversation.com/will-better-paid-truckies-make-our-roads-safer-20825
    Take the time to read this excellent detailed article on the trends associated with electricity prices and consumption in Australia. It is no wonder that Abbott’s strings are being pulled by his corporate masters.
    https://theconversation.com/why-is-electricity-consumption-decreasing-in-australia-20998
    Bob Ellis on the “Abbotite era”.
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-dark-ages,6021
    And Ellis has his say on the Conservatives changing the definition of “disability”.
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/redefining-disability,6019

  41. Good morning and Season’s Greetings, bludgers. And to William, thank you.

    My visiting rellies aren’t until tomorrow, so this will be a nice slow day, I hope. Yesterday was a bit hectic, with a treefeller and a noisy cherrypicker and mulcher on site. The trees (tall swamp gums) were hanging over the power line only metres from the house, so they had to go. We now have a swarming crowd of tiny ants whose home has disappeared. And I wonder what the possums thought!

  42. Thank you BK for your daily grind 🙂
    There has been a certain amount of this expression lately:
    [even the Howard government acted to retain the NSW provisions for owner-drivers]

    Says a lot!

  43. Merry Christmas everyone!

    I’m waiting for my boys (19 and 17) to wake up and open their Christmas stockings. Once upon a time they’d have been up before me ….if I’d known, I wouldn’t have had to get up in the middle of the night to fill the things.

    The 17 year old said smugly last night that he knew I’d forgotten. I pretended I had, but he soon twigged. Then he asked if I’d bought gold coins (the foil ones with chocolate inside). I said no, he never eats them. “Not eating them is part of the tradition,” he said reproachfully.

    Once they’re up, and opened the more formal presents, we’re heading for Melbourne. (Have a kilo of cherries to eat on the way). Dinner tonight at my sister in law’s and then up to my mother’s for Boxing Day.

    So Merry Christmas, everyone. It’s been a hard year in many ways (personally speaking) and for a long time Pollbludger was basically my contact with the outside world. I have appreciated your company and often been overwhelmed by your support, so thank you.

  44. Merry Christmas Bludgers. May you enjoy Christmas Day just as you’ve planned it. Thanks to all for your terrific contributions to this site.

    A big thankyou to William and Crikey for their patience and foresight in allowing a fair range of freedom here.

    To BK – your morning ritual here is most
    appreciated. Thanks.

  46. Just about to head off to work. As the boss thought I was passed this working Christmas Day but it came down to me or one of my staff who has young kids. So I gave him the day off. I think I have made a couple of kids and a wife very happy and that makes me feel all good.

    Have a great day everyone. Stay safe

  47. Morning all and Merry Christmas! Turkey’s smelling pretty good!

    Mari, thank you and Player One for your little welcome back committee. Hope you are in for a good day.

    Catch you later, back to work.

  48. Bugler

    [I’m planning on reading the biography of Madame Chang Kai-Shek by Laura Tyson Li.]

    There’s a tiny museum on Kangaroo Island with a dress that was a gift of Madame Kai-Shek.

  49. Morning bludgers

    Merry xmas to all!!
    Thanks again to everyone for the ongoing banter and discussion, and to William for his ongoing commitment in moderating the blog.

    Have a great day. Talk later

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