Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor; ReachTEL: 52-48

The Labor-friendliest polling series offers the Labor-friendliest poll result of the Labor-friendliest polling period in some considerable time.

Morgan has sort-of-published a result showing Labor leading 52.5-47.5 on both respondent allocated and previous election preferences, up from 51.5-48.5 a fortnight ago, with primary votes of 40.5% for the Coalition (down one), 38.5% for Labor (steady), 10% for the Greens (up 1.5%) and 3.5% for Palmer United (steady). The poll was conducted over two weekends from a sample of 2879 respondents, suggesting they’ve changed methodology on us again. This information comes from the trend tables on the Morgan site – we are yet to see the usual weekly press release that would tell us more about the methodology.

UPDATE: Here we go. The methodology is still face-to-face plus SMS with no online component, so the larger sample is obviously down to the fact that the poll was conducted over two weekends instead of one.

UPDATE 2 (ReachTEL): And now courtesy of the Seven Network we have a ReachTEL automated phone poll timed to coincide with the 100 day anniversary (no hair-spitting please, Latin scholars) of the Abbott government, which reflects the overall trend in giving Labor a two-party lead of 52-48 from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition and 40% for Labor. It also has 50% rating the government’s performance so far as disappointing, 30% as good and 20% as satisfactory.

UPDATE 3: Full results from ReachTEL here. The full primary votes are 41.4% for the Coalition (down 2.8%), 40.4% for Labor (up an impressive 6.2%), 8.7% for the Greens (down 1.1%), 5.1% for the Palmer United Party (down 1.5%) and 4.4% for others (down 1.3%). Also included are personal ratings on a five-point scale for Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten. Abbott’s ratings have measurably weakened since the previous poll of November 21, while Bill Shorten tellingly has a net negative rating overall: obviously a lot of respondents whose incline to give the new guy the benefit of the doubt when given a straight approval-versus-disapproval option instead go for an intermediate option (“satisfactory” in this case) when one is available.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Essential Research assumes its traditional role of stick-in-the-mud in recording essentially no change on last week, with the Coalition still leading 51-49 from primary votes of 44% for the Coalition and 37% for Labor, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party each down a point, to 7% and 4% respectively. Also featured: who or what it’s been a good or bad year for (net bad for everything except, curiously, “your workplace” and “you and your family overall”, with “Australian politics generally” scoring 8% good and 70% bad), how the next 12 months are expected to compare (somewhat more optimistic, especially with respect to Australian politics), what the government should do about Qantas (an even divide between four listed options), the importance of car manufacturing (60% important, 33% not important), whether the government should provide subsidies to Holden (45% yes, 42% no) and the level of government support to Toyota should be increased (31% increase, 44% leave as is, 11% decrease).

On a somewhat similar note, The Australian last night published Newspoll figures from last week’s poll showing 15% expect their standard of living to improve over the next six months (up one from last time), 64% expect it to stay the same (up four) and 20% expect it to get worse (down three).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,320 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor; ReachTEL: 52-48”

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  1. @mod Lib/2298

    Oh dear, Mod lib thinks playing games with politics is all fun and games, except when the economy goes to crap.

    Run away Mod Lib.

  2. [Sigh. Any job where you get paid an income to do something is a “real job”]

    What is it about Adelaide that produces these full-of-themselves, pompous “above it all” types like Carey Moore and Diogenes?

  3. Mod Lib@2291

    OK so Gillard told a lie without intending it and Abbott told the truth with the intent to deceive.

    I promise I am really trying to understand your position here, truly I am!

    God you are a condescending bastard aren’t you. You know what I wrote but if you don’t know and if you are trying to understand you are failing miserably and it is not because I am failing to explain my position

  4. Zoidlord I’ll do my best.

    1 I don’t think anyone expected Abbott to stop all boats from Day 1 however if that was in fact a promise then obviously it has been broken;
    2 The boat buy-back policy was dumb policy to begin with so if it was in fact a promise then it was a good promise to break;
    3 I don’t accept that was ever a promise and it was one sensible decision made by this government in 100 days of scarce good decisions;
    4 I believe this government has a rolled gold contract with the people to get the economy under better control and they will be judged strongly on how they perform over three years however I don’t believe it’s a broken promise … YET;
    5 Yes it was a broken promise and the worst decision of the new government. They had no choice but to back down;
    6 NBNLite yes a broken promise which they probably should never had made in the first place; and
    7 and 8 were only ever political rhetoric and were never serious promises.

    Regardless of all that the real problem with the new government is that they have acted in a disjointed manner with no appearance of having any well planned strategy and vision for the country. That is worse than any broken promises.

  5. [Slav G
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 12:32 am | PERMALINK
    Mod Lib@2291
    OK so Gillard told a lie without intending it and Abbott told the truth with the intent to deceive.
    I promise I am really trying to understand your position here, truly I am!

    God you are a condescending bastard aren’t you.]

    You don’t even know my parents.

    [You know what I wrote but if you don’t know and if you are trying to understand you are failing miserably and it is not because]

    Indeed I do know what you wrote as I included it in my response.

    [ I am failing to explain my position]


  6. The reason people accuse Abbott of being a liar is because he has been sprung badly many many times saying one thing one day and something completely different shortly after.

    Its habitual.

    Tony Jones and “did you talk to Pell?”

    Abbott accusing Labor of spreading the story of his alleged violence at uni, and then having to ‘concede’ that they were not involved. He made it up.

    The Kerry O’Brien interview exposed a few more [at least] and when backed into a corner by his own retreat Abbott was reluctantly forced to confess that he makes things up, says one thing today and the opposite tomorrow.
    ‘It ain’t true unless its written down’ was his …what excuse?, mea culpa?.

    This deliberate duplicity is on the record.
    He admitted it.

    More examples came from an interview with Laurie Oakes who showed his disgust with Abbott’s ‘weathervane’ swings.
    Yet more with Leigh Sales -“No I didn’t read it”, later ‘Yes I did”.
    Shortly thereafter he repeated that trick with Lisa Williamson.
    On radio he said WorkNOchoices was ‘dead buried cremated”,even wrote it on a piece of paper but less than a couple of minutes later, started backtracking.
    Couldn’t help himself.
    With the nasty ‘Great Big New Tax’ of the carbon ‘tax’ he ignored that he is on video as being in favour of such.

    The Mirabella episode is just another example of Abbott saying whatever is convenient one day and then something different later when it suits him.

    There was no major political event [as in the hung parliament election with Gillard] in between to warrant the change. He knows govt jobs with QUANGOS are a dime a dozen, he knew one ,or more, would be available for Sophie [and Tim and …] down the track soon. It came, he gave it to her.
    Just convenience.
    The same with Gonski.
    I predict the same with PPL.

    Blimey you have to be blind and deaf to have missed all these examples and many many more.

    It never fails to amaze how the media managed to highlight a single example of Gillard using political rhetoric and turned it into a massive credibility issue for her when in contrast Abbott, who is a serial offender, gets the whitewash.


    Re Ukraine and Russia
    I was criticised “AS A USEFUL IDIOT” speaking out for r Russia when I said the other day that the Ukraine would get nothing from carpetbag politicins like McCain and he was t using then to mnount attacks by US neocons on Russua
    who want to challenge Putin and have Ukraine part of NATO and the EU bloc

    But now the correctness of my statement is verified by the announcement that a $20billion BAILOUT for the Ukraine and new deal for cheaper oil/gas from Russia marked a new stage in the crisis
    All MCCain and his neocons had to offer was vague offers of support and cheap slogans,,,with Uncle Sam having the arse out of his trousers there wasn’t much hope of anything else
    the Russians with oil and gas to offer were always going to win this match

  8. [Night all, Ocean Princess and Hoa Nam still around CI, bit out from the Island though.]

    There is a Cat 2 cyclone lurking to the west of Cocos at the moment. Possibly waiting for that to go on its way.

    Morriscum will be happy though as that is likely to reduce any boat arrival numbers for a week or two, for which the scumbag will claim credit, and ST and ilk will no doubt give him applause.

  9. Tony Abbott is a liar because he made a whole bunch of contradictory promises he can’t possibly keep all at once without repealing the laws of physics.


    He had better hope he has one of those direct lines to God.

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