Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor; ReachTEL: 52-48

The Labor-friendliest polling series offers the Labor-friendliest poll result of the Labor-friendliest polling period in some considerable time.

Morgan has sort-of-published a result showing Labor leading 52.5-47.5 on both respondent allocated and previous election preferences, up from 51.5-48.5 a fortnight ago, with primary votes of 40.5% for the Coalition (down one), 38.5% for Labor (steady), 10% for the Greens (up 1.5%) and 3.5% for Palmer United (steady). The poll was conducted over two weekends from a sample of 2879 respondents, suggesting they’ve changed methodology on us again. This information comes from the trend tables on the Morgan site – we are yet to see the usual weekly press release that would tell us more about the methodology.

UPDATE: Here we go. The methodology is still face-to-face plus SMS with no online component, so the larger sample is obviously down to the fact that the poll was conducted over two weekends instead of one.

UPDATE 2 (ReachTEL): And now courtesy of the Seven Network we have a ReachTEL automated phone poll timed to coincide with the 100 day anniversary (no hair-spitting please, Latin scholars) of the Abbott government, which reflects the overall trend in giving Labor a two-party lead of 52-48 from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition and 40% for Labor. It also has 50% rating the government’s performance so far as disappointing, 30% as good and 20% as satisfactory.

UPDATE 3: Full results from ReachTEL here. The full primary votes are 41.4% for the Coalition (down 2.8%), 40.4% for Labor (up an impressive 6.2%), 8.7% for the Greens (down 1.1%), 5.1% for the Palmer United Party (down 1.5%) and 4.4% for others (down 1.3%). Also included are personal ratings on a five-point scale for Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten. Abbott’s ratings have measurably weakened since the previous poll of November 21, while Bill Shorten tellingly has a net negative rating overall: obviously a lot of respondents whose incline to give the new guy the benefit of the doubt when given a straight approval-versus-disapproval option instead go for an intermediate option (“satisfactory” in this case) when one is available.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Essential Research assumes its traditional role of stick-in-the-mud in recording essentially no change on last week, with the Coalition still leading 51-49 from primary votes of 44% for the Coalition and 37% for Labor, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party each down a point, to 7% and 4% respectively. Also featured: who or what it’s been a good or bad year for (net bad for everything except, curiously, “your workplace” and “you and your family overall”, with “Australian politics generally” scoring 8% good and 70% bad), how the next 12 months are expected to compare (somewhat more optimistic, especially with respect to Australian politics), what the government should do about Qantas (an even divide between four listed options), the importance of car manufacturing (60% important, 33% not important), whether the government should provide subsidies to Holden (45% yes, 42% no) and the level of government support to Toyota should be increased (31% increase, 44% leave as is, 11% decrease).

On a somewhat similar note, The Australian last night published Newspoll figures from last week’s poll showing 15% expect their standard of living to improve over the next six months (up one from last time), 64% expect it to stay the same (up four) and 20% expect it to get worse (down three).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,320 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor; ReachTEL: 52-48”

  1. eveyAus ‏@eveyaus 9h
    @randlight @smh I’m stuck at that point, can’t make a happy ending where @MargaretAbbot10 and him drive off in a BMW to live happily E after
    Reply Retweet Favorite More Collapse
    8:22 AM – 16 Dec 13 · Details
    Margie Abbott ‏@MargaretAbbot10 1m
    .@eveyaus @randlight @smh it would be a much happier ending if he went off alone. Just saying.

    some of these tweeters have a great sense of humour

  2. Essential is still the odd one out (the other polls are in the same ball park). If Essential can’t change direction any more quickly it might hit the iceberg.

  3. Margie Abbott ‏@MargaretAbbot10 1m
    .@eveyaus @randlight @smh it would be a much happier ending if he went off alone. Just saying.
    =================================================

    Abbott drive off into the sunset with the one person who controls him…Credlin

  4. From the previous thread…

    [Just remember: acknowledging somebody’s political skills does not necessarily mean you actually think they’re doing a good job governing.]

    The Thousand Faces Of Tony Abbott were actually 998 until he was sworn in. Now we have “Prime Minister” and “Statesman” to add to the check list that starts with “Boofhead” and “Wall-puncher”.

    Surely there can’t be any more to come. Abbott would have to be one of the best known politicians in the country, even in Australian political history.

    Is there anything he hasn’t tried?

    OK, so he was a good LOTO, getting rid of Rudd first, then Gillard, then Rudd again. Score 10/10 for being a wrecker and running destructive interference.

    Along the way he got Pauline Hansen jailed, dudded Peter Reith, betrayed Malcolm Turnbull and – arguably his greatest triumph – scammed the Australian public into thinking he was dumb con man they could easily outwit and manipulate for their own purposes.

    The internet and the newspapers are full of journalists and commentators who thought that – no matter what else Abbott discarded or reneged upon – their pet project would go ahead, because no-one could be so stupid as to, say, ditch the NBN, go back on a “Unity Ticket” promise, claw back wages and salaries from the nation’s lowest paid workers, withdraw funds from indigenous education foundations, sack the Salvation Army from humanitarian work, insult the Indonesian President (an ongoing hobby of his), actually persist with his crazy Direct Action plan, kill off the Maritime National Parks, de-list the Tasmanian protected areas, abandon the Murray-Darling wetlands, get rid of General Motors before his own productivity Commission hearings had even finished taking evidence, tell Toyota to piss off without a Productivity Commission hearing, stop trades training centers, dredge the Great Barrier Reef, de-fund the Pacific highway infrastructure works, or only appoint one woman to his cabinet (when he was so obviously pro-women, being clearly fond of his daughters and in love with his wife, and they of him).

    All the men and women who supported the above issues and voted for Abbott believing he wouldn’t – couldn’t – be so stupid as to abandon their hopes and dreams for their pet projects, did so because they equally couldn’t believe he’d have the effrontery to look straight into the camera’s eye on Day #100 and say he was pleased to have been able to keep every one of his election promises and to have run an ordered, professional government that brought hope for all Australians back onto the agenda.

    The low-wage forkie from Western Sydney (on ABC TV news a few months back, before the election) summed up all their thoughts on the matter by saying, on air, “Hey, we can always vote him out in three years. What harm can he do in the meantime?”

    “How much harm can he do in three months?” is a better question, and appropriate for Day #100.

    Abbott told us all that what we thought we voted for was a completely different thing to what he thought we voted for. And, he told us, what he thought we voted for was what counted. It didn’t bear much relation to our own views on these matters.

    And that’s where the last two Faces Of Abbott come in – PM and statesman.

    The polls tell us that, in the considered opinion of the public, as tabulated by Bludger Track, that maybe if they’d known then what they know now, they mightn’t have voted for him. The indications are that all the people, and then some, who left Labor after 2010 and defected to the Abbott Circus, have come back.

    So when you weigh up the evidence, now that the set is complete, and consider the whole Thousand Faces Of Tony Abbott, you have to think that the last two – PM and Statesman – haven’t stood him in good stead, and that the Australian public’s opinion is trending towards them thinking Tony Abbott, as a politician, has finally reached his Peter Principle-type level of incompetence.

    In short, he’s a great wrecker, but a lousy builder, because he’s too big a hater.

  5. Abbott driving off into the sunset with the one person who loves him!

    As he is most probably the only person who loves him, he would go off into the sunset alone again, naturally. 😉

  6. I think everyone is in agreement that Peta controls Tony. So is Mr Abbott really the Duracell Bunny? If so, how long do the batteries last?

  7. Continuing saga on my comment 5

    Margie Abbott ‏@MargaretAbbot10 2m
    .@randlight @eveyaus @smh I can dream, can’t I?
    Reply Retweet Favorite More Expand
    Mari R ‏@randlight 1m
    @MargaretAbbot10 @eveyaus @smh You sure can, perhaps unload him onto #PMCredlin
    Reply Delete Favorite More Expand
    Margie Abbott ‏@MargaretAbbot10 48s
    @randlight @eveyaus @smh way ahead of you there 🙂
    Hide conversation

  8. [Stephen Spencer ‏@sspencer_63 1m
    7 News Reachtel poll has ALP ahead 52-48. Morgan 52.5-47.5; Newspoll 52-48; Nielsen 52-48. Only Essential 49-51 has Govt in front.]

  9. Bushfire Bill

    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 6:08 pm | Permalink

    From the previous thread…

    Just remember: acknowledging somebody’s political skills does not necessarily mean you actually think they’re doing a good job governing.
    ==================================================

    Abbott is working his way through the IPA list of 100 radical policies.

    He has been bought and paid for by Murdoch who is on the Board of the IPA and he will dance to their tune.

  10. [Reachtell
    Govt performance: 50% poor or very poor
    TPP ALP 52:48%
    Worst polling for any government @ 100 days

    Everyone happy?]

    You voted for these 100 days, I hope you’re happy, more to the point.

  11. Crabbe and Chickarovski on the Drum both lauding “Tony” for a good start ad PM.

    The first 100 days would have been even better, they say, if Labor had honoured Abbott’s mandate (even though Abbott has dishonoured Abbott’s mandate in quite a few policy areas).

    Lightweights, the both of them.

  12. [Stephen Spencer ‏@sspencer_63 1m
    7 News Reachtel poll has ALP ahead 52-48. Morgan 52.5-47.5; Newspoll 52-48; Nielsen 52-48. Only Essential 49-51 has Govt in front.]

    And remember Joe Hildebrand and others said that the Nielsen was “rogue”…

    I wonder if their ABC will bury these polls like it did the Newspoll? I guess it depends on how News Ltd report them and how easily the alogorithm ABC news uses then picks it up…

  13. [sohar
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 6:16 pm | PERMALINK
    Don’t worry about whether we are happy or not: are you happy, ML? You should be – Malcolm edges closer with every poll.]

    Bingo! :devil:

  14. [Crabbe and Chickarovski on the Drum both lauding “Tony” for a good start ad PM.

    The first 100 days would have been even better, they say, if Labor had honoured Abbott’s mandate (even though Abbott has dishonoured Abbott’s mandate in quite a few policy areas).

    Lightweights, the both of them.]

    Oh no, didn’t you get the memo? Abbott’s 100 days in government have proved him to be the “politician of the year”, only biased hacks would think otherwise!

    Get with the Crikey program!

  15. I wonder what ReachTEL’s preferred PM rating is? Given their strange methodolgy, I would not be surprised to see Shorten leading on that measure!

  16. ML, I’m try to imagine Malcolm’s face when he walks into the PM’s office – after ousting Tony in the party room – only to find a playpen, a rocking horse and a colouring book.

  17. [Tony Burke ‏@Tony_Burke 12m
    In the final week of the school year Tony Abbott thought he’d get away with writing his own report card. #auspol pic.twitter.com/F7VOvvOenj]

  18. [sohar
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 6:24 pm | PERMALINK
    ML, I’m try to imagine Malcolm’s face when he walks into the PM’s office – after ousting Tony in the party room – only to find a playpen, a rocking horse and a colouring book.]

    I thought much more of George W Bush when I visited his Presidential Library and noticed that he never once coloured outside the lines.

    😉

  19. Regardless of Malcolm’s qualities, I do not see more than 30 votes in the LNP party room for him.

    The fresh faces in the House following Abbott’s thumping win in September will be similar to Howard’s famous pot plants from 1996 – they sat on the back bench for 11 years and were never going to go against the guy that got them there. No matter how much Peter Costello wanted them to…

  20. The Libs won’t drop Abbott he will lead till the next election or the Liberal Party will split.

    The chance of a Lib split are almost zero and gaining.

  21. I never used to think there was a chance the Libs would split, but given the extremism of Abbott and co I don’t think any sane person could put up with it much longer.

  22. I still don’t think the Libs will split, but I’m close to changing my mind. Even so, it won’t be Turnbull and if it is, I’ll eat my socks.

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