BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

This week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate puts Labor well into absolute majority territory, marking their sixth consecutive improvement.

The latest weekly BludgerTrack update neatly reflects the results of the most recent Newspoll, ReachTEL and Nielsen polls in landing bang on 52-48 to Labor. The Labor primary vote has a four in front of it for the first time since BludgerTrack opened for business at the start of the year, albeit by the barest of margins, with a 1.4% gain this week coming off a drop for minor parties while the Coalition holds steady at 40.9%. The latest state-level data points have fuelled a blowout in the result for Queensland, and while there has certainly been some indication of softness for the Coalition there recently (notably the 11% swing which showed up in Nielsen), I’m pretty sure the present extent of it will prove to be aberration. The two weakest state swings for Labor happen to be where elections are due shortly, although you might argue that a Holden shutdown effect is yet to come through in South Australia.

This will probably be the last update for the year – certainly Essential Research will not be back until the middle of next month, and I imagine that’s it for Morgan as well. Newspoll has never been in the business of polling beyond early December, but hopefully The Australian will shortly offer state breakdowns from its accumulated post-election polling so a bit more ballast can be added to the BludgerTrack state dataset.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,089 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

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  6. CTar1@3055

    bemused _ I thought you said you’d drop it off!

    A good day today I hope for You and Yours.

    Are your difficulties with eyesight or reading comprehension? 😛

    And I hope you and yours also have a good day today.

  11. Merry christmas all! 2014 certainly promises to be a better year for Labor than 2013 was. The only way is up for Labor with a ham fisted Liberal government and an economy requiring some actual decisions from two people whose only career skills have been to promote fear and criticise sensible reforms. Now they need to introduce some reforms of their own.

    The WA Senate election rerun should be a hoot. I’d love to hear an interview with the marginal Liberal Senator when the result is announced.

    Off to heat pudding and drink wine. Looking forward to the cricket tomorrow too 🙂

  13. CTar

    Agreed. Back from heating, and eating, the pudding and you are correct bout the microwave. I just added a little bit of water to stop it drying out in the microwave. Too easy, and it was delicious. The brandy cream was not bad either 🙂

    Santa, any chance you could convince the elves to make brandy cream through the year, espcially winter, and not just stock it at christmas?

  14. Socrates

    Come on,it’s easy and this is real brandy not flavouring 😆

    1 cup heavy cream (whipping cream)
    2 -3 tablespoons icing sugar
    3 tablespoons brandy

    Directions:

    1
    Whip cream & icing sugar together until soft peaks form.
    2
    Then quickly fold in the brandy.

  17. I hadn’t seen this before. 😀

    [‏@BrashsHelpline 18 Sep
    @TurnbullMalcolm We have some great deals on 3.5″ disks if you’re looking for a fast alternative to FTTN]

  18. Merry Christmas to you all.

    Just wondering how likely a WA Senate rerun election is.
    I believe that the most likely result of a WA rerun would probably be 3 Liberal, 2 Labor and 1 Green if there is a swing away from the Abbott Government? It would be at the expense of a right-wing minor party.

    So Abbott Govt would now need 6 out of 7 crossbenchers rather than 6 out of 8? (Not too sure about the actual numbers)

    Either way this is enough to repeal carbon tax but not for introduction of direct action or the paid parental leave scheme in its current state?

    Griffith looks like Labor retain?

  19. Hey all, back from the family gathering.

    Chaotic as usual when Kids are involved, but that’s what we adults (the real ones, not the ones in Parliament) do best.

    Kids are pretty happy with their presents.

    It’s hot and sticky/dry in Brisbane.

    27.8 degrees.

    Ah well, I don’t have much long before I visit Winter Japan.

  20. It’s sublime in Perth, as usual. We’ve taken the customary swimming and body-surfing to heart, and now enjoying cucumber salad and prawns while preparing tomorrow’s bumper lunch.

    All is well in paradise.

  22. 1
    Whip cream & icing sugar together until soft peaks form.
    SAMPLE BRANDY

    2
    Then quickly fold in the brandy.

    SAMPLE BRANDY AGAIN JUST TO CHECK

    SAMPLE SAUCE

    SAMPLE BRANDY

    PASS OUT QUIETLY

  24. Well, I’ll be darned.

    I thought PB was on hols. Seem to remember history stopped for nearly two weeks without PB this time last year??

    One just can’t be away from the hurly-burly a second these days without the world/caravan/circus moving on without you.

    Hope PBers have a Christmas they would hope for.

  25. Can you get a better Christmas gift than having five of the best grandkids saying “Love you Poppy”. Nup, life is good.

    Hope everyone has had a great day. Bless you all.

  27. [One just can’t be away from the hurly-burly a second these days without the world/caravan/circus moving on without you.]

    julia Gillard forgot to come back…beginning of the end

  31. Just back from having a very casual Christmas evening meal at my eldest sons place, on the deck beside his pool.

    I used to think swimming pools in Melbourne didn’t make a lot of sense with too short a season. But with a pool cover to keep the heat in at night and a heat pump pretty much entirely powered by his solar panels, it is just great and the season much extended.

    Youngest grand-daughter turns 4 in April, but can already dog-paddle across the pool, jumps in, goes under water with no fear and won’t have a bar of floaties or any other flotation device. Just amazes me.

    Yep, I am one hell of a proud grand-father. 😀

  32. lizzie@3064

    Socrates

    Come on,it’s easy and this is real brandy not flavouring

    1 cup heavy cream (whipping cream)
    2 -3 tablespoons icing sugar
    3 tablespoons brandy

    Directions:

    1
    Whip cream & icing sugar together until soft peaks form.
    2
    Then quickly fold in the brandy.

    Hi Lizzie, I passed that recipe on to my wife for her to consider against alternatives.

    Thanks for posting it.

  34. Merry Xmas, bludgers. I over indulged, again. I went on the Port River dolphin cruise Xmas luch with my Mum, sons and a couple of friends.
    Good lunch, nice wine, saw dolphins.

  35. You don’t need brandy in the cream if you put enough over the pudding. Brandy, that is.
    This is the correct recipe.
    t
    taste pudding
    taste brandy.
    sprinkle brandy over pudding.
    taste brandy
    Look at pudding.
    Pour brandy over pudding.
    Set it alight
    Don’t burn down kitchen.

  36. Re Christmas pudding – you also need to add threepences and sixpences. I suspect my grandmother slipped them into the slices after they were cut to ensure that no one missed out and all the kids came out more or less equal.

  37. Steve777
    Although never let on ,caught both my Mum and Grandmother salting the Pud with threepence and sixpence ,being silver, as they first boiled the coins, and slipped in just before serving

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