BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

This week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate puts Labor well into absolute majority territory, marking their sixth consecutive improvement.

The latest weekly BludgerTrack update neatly reflects the results of the most recent Newspoll, ReachTEL and Nielsen polls in landing bang on 52-48 to Labor. The Labor primary vote has a four in front of it for the first time since BludgerTrack opened for business at the start of the year, albeit by the barest of margins, with a 1.4% gain this week coming off a drop for minor parties while the Coalition holds steady at 40.9%. The latest state-level data points have fuelled a blowout in the result for Queensland, and while there has certainly been some indication of softness for the Coalition there recently (notably the 11% swing which showed up in Nielsen), I’m pretty sure the present extent of it will prove to be aberration. The two weakest state swings for Labor happen to be where elections are due shortly, although you might argue that a Holden shutdown effect is yet to come through in South Australia.

This will probably be the last update for the year – certainly Essential Research will not be back until the middle of next month, and I imagine that’s it for Morgan as well. Newspoll has never been in the business of polling beyond early December, but hopefully The Australian will shortly offer state breakdowns from its accumulated post-election polling so a bit more ballast can be added to the BludgerTrack state dataset.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,089 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

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  1. The LNP Government is proving so many of the posters on PB absolutely correct in their pre-election comments.

    That Abbott considers he has kept his word illustrates the delusional network he has surrounded himself with.

    Sadly the Australian economy will be turned backwards by the this power hungry ego-maniac.

  3. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    You can probably guess where I was for 9 hours yesterday afternoon/evening.
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/south-australia-faces-temperatures-exceeding-40c-raising-fire-risks/story-fni6uo1m-1226786238438
    Mark Latham – “Abbott has run out of ideas”.
    http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/abbott_appears_to_be_out_of_ideas_HNUBlzo3N2SXoApK0iqT5L
    So Tony, where does the diesel rebate stand with this latest statement of yours?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/tony-abbott-likes-chocolate-but-car-makers-and-airlines-must-fend-for-themselves-20131218-2zlhl.html
    Now who would have thought?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-signals-he-may-be-open-to-negotiations-on-paid-parental-leave-20131218-2zkxd.html
    Glen Stevens pours cold water over Abbott and Hockey’s spear thrower Kelly O’Bigmouth and exposes their misleading statements . Strangely, the Australian didn’t see any merit of reporting this.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/rba-governor-glenn-stevens-defends-wayne-swan-against-claims-he-depleted-banks-reserve-funds-20131218-2zkc9.html
    I hope the arrogant Apple mob get taken to the cleaners on this.
    http://www.theage.com.au/digital-life/digital-life-news/apple-forced-to-adopt-new-refund-policy-under-australian-consumer-law-20131218-2zkkr.html
    MUST SEE!! David Pope on the Puff Adder’s “worthy appointment”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    An unusual change of style from Alan Moir.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    MUST SEE!! David Rowe – “The Ghosts of Christmas, past and present and forward estimates”. As usual there is much to be seen in the detail
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
    Ron Tandberg uses the cricket again.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html

  4. I will accept this as true from Nikki Savva.

    [ and with the appointment of Peter Costello as acting chairman of the Future Fund (he will be confirmed as permanent chairman by cabinet early next year)]

    Look out FF remember currency swaps and gold selloff Pete please.

  5. The worst aspect of the present debate about the budget deficit is the fixation on spending cuts. It should be about increasing tax rates ie. reversing the largesse of Howard and Costello’s huge tax cuts for middle and high income earners.

    The Abbott government is clearly planning to “punish” low (or no) income earners, pensioners etc. – the very people who he “used” to gain power.

  8. Morning all

    Dole queue jump sees payments hit

    [NUMBER of people on the dole jumps 20 per cent in a year to over 800,000, forcing theAbbott Government to target family payments.
    A BLOWOUT in the dole queue will force the Abbott government to target family payments as it cuts the nation’s $132 billion welfare bill.

    The number of Australians on the dole has jumped 20 per cent in a year, to reach 800,587 in October, the latest official data reveals.

    The global financial crisis has tipped an extra 307,829 Australians onto the dole queue since May 2008.]

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/economy/dole-blowout-to-force-government-to-target-family-payments/story-fnkjjout-1226786138630

  9. Well of course we should be talking about raising revenue, but the Liberals have a “small government” agenda so they will be doing everything to justify swinging cuts. And Labor were too gutless, even when riding high under Rudd to simply get a conversation going, talking about Howard ruining the tax base and explaining to people how the deficit is only a few percent of the GDP and explaining how a relatively small change in tax rates would make a huge difference on the ground.

  10. Hockey insisting that he is only relying on Treasury’s figures is a lie. He added wtte “with strong oversight from the government”.

    [One area where Mr Hockey has followed through is on his word prior to the election to ‘fix’ Treasury. It is disappointing to see Treasury humiliated and bullied into applying Mr Hockey’s (or his office’s) forecasts to the economic parameters underpinning the budget numbers.

    He has, in effect, told Treasury to calculate the budget revenue and spending numbers using unrealistically weak assessments for GDP growth, inflation, wages, employment and the unemployment rate. They are not Treasury forecasts, they are Mr Hockey’s forecasts.

    The tactic Hockey is using is clear. The weaker the economic forecasts now, the ‘worse’ the budget position appears. Put in a nominal GDP growth rate 1 percentage point weaker than it is really likely to be, cut a quarter of a per cent from employment growth, and trim half a percentage point from inflation and wages growth, and all of a sudden, there is a deficit blowout of many tens of billions of dollars over the forward estimates.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-18/koukoulas-hockey-is-saving-the-good-news-for-may/5163646

  11. cud chewer

    Correct – the ALP has failed to tackle LNP flawed policy whenever it’s been in a position of power.

    Similarly, it failed to tackle press bias in it’s early days of Rudd-Gillard and finally tried to “rush” something through in the last days of PM Gillard. Very liitle conversation preceded that failed effort too.

  12. Yes, one thing I hated about Rudd was his “nice guy” behaviour.. not dealing head on with the media.. not starting conversations about Howard’s failures… failing to get rid of Howard stooges in places like the ABC and eventually rolling over on pink batts when he should have fought the issue.

  14. BK

    Thank you, as always. Top of your pops goes to Rowe: Abbott’s shit-eating grin, the hubris being cooked slowly by Scrooge McHockey, all those squeaky wheels and a rather Mephistophelian Bowen rattling the chains.

  15. http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=26512#more-26512

    Professor Mitchell weighs in on the MYEFO fiasco.
    Some excerpts.

    [Which just about tells you how far the ABC, as our national public broadcaster, has bought into the neo-liberal myth-making machine..

    All the estimates of the government deficit further out have been revised upwards and the numbers provided have created sensationalist headlines in the news media (which reflects the ignorance of the media reporters….

    So a mix of economic facts and political hoo-ha….

    So more corporate welfare for those who do nothing productive but spend their time shuffling wealth…

    ..more than half of the total shift is due to the ridiculous capital injection that the Treasurer put into the central bank.
    That was a pure political stunt….

    So in a period of 18 months the real GDP growth rate has halved because the [ALP] government tried to pursue a fiscal surplus at a time when private spending growth was declining…

    ..the trade account remained in deficit and the deficit on the income account means that the Current Account continues to drain income from the Australian economy.]

    He concludes:
    [On days like this when basic principles of macroeconomics are discarded and an entire nation is caught up in a nonsensical debate about nothing ….]

  16. cud chewer

    Labor pollies are far too polite to their rivals, I agree. Every time they label something as “bipartisan” you can bet the Coalition are smirking behind their hands, because it feeds the deception that the two main parties are “just the same”.

    Coalition tells lies with straight faces and even a smile, knowing the voters will swallow the myths.

  17. Is the NDIS scheme in trouble now? Always look out for the s-word – sustainable.

    Does this remind you of the Turnbull assurances on NBN Broadband?

    [‘We will deliver the National Disability Insurance Scheme.
    ”We’re at the very beginning of this process but we will have a National Disability Insurance Scheme and it will be fair and it will be generous and it will be appropriately targeted and it will be sustainable.”]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-accuses-labor-of-scaremongering-over-ndis-funding-20131218-2zkzx.html#ixzz2nrPgpI8p

  18. Thought for the day?

    [@BecWrong 2h
    If Abbott doesn’t believe in corporate welfare then why are tax payers funding fuel subsidies for mining companies? #auspol]

  19. Remember Chrissie Pyne saying that students should be taught about Magna Carta?

    Superb irony when you look at the attitudes of Coalition pollies to imprisonment. And it seems that Brandis is very concerned about the “suffering” of Andrew Bolt

    [Since the Magna Carta 800 years ago, the most important civil right has been freedom from arbitrary executive detention, without charge or effective judicial control. For 20 years, Australian governments have violated this freedom tens of thousands of times. Mandatory immigration detention is a grave human rights abuse, all the more so when it is inflicted on refugees seeking our protection.

    It is worse still when detention is indefinite, as for more than 50 refugees detained for four years because of ASIO security assessments. Just a few months ago, the United Nations found that this violates Australia’s civil and political rights treaty obligations.

    If the Attorney-General was genuinely concerned about civil rights, he would phone the Immigration Minister Scott Morrison to release all asylum seekers detained for, say, more than 30 days. In seconds, he could stop thousands of serious rights violations.

    But the Attorney-General allows them to languish. He is more worried about the suffering of columnist Andrew Bolt, who was found guilty of breaching the Racial Discrimination Act over two articles he wrote in 2009.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/championing-human-rights-in-the-wrong-way-20131218-2zl91.html#ixzz2nrTV2Z7x

  20. Morning all. BK thanks for the links, and thanks for your volunteer work. I hope you do not have too much to do in the next few days.

    Lizzie

    Thanks for the Koukoulas link, it is what I said yesterday. The future debt projections are based on artificially low growth rates. With the USA recovering, they will easily be beaten even if nothing is done here in policy terms.

  21. Another one on Abbott and corporate welfare – why is he and Denis Napthine funding an unwanted road tunnel in Melbourne, which will be an $8 billion financial free kick to the construction company that wins it, just as Theiss and Leightons have been beaten up over their past bad bets on toll roads. $8 billion makes work for the dole look pretty measly.

    I wonder if any big road contractors were donoors to the Victorian Liberals?

  22. On the previous thread someone said the Libs did not lie on Gonski because the money was still given out. The problem with the Liberal lie on Gonski is the fact they have destroyed the process of allocating funding. Nobody should be attacking the Libs for cutting funding, because they have not. It is worse than that. The Libs have dumped the allocation of funds according to needs of the student and resumed funding of postcodes.

    It is irrelevant how much money they are throwing at schools. Gonski was not about the quantity of money, it was about the method of allocating the money. The Libs trashed that method and then pretended everything was OK because the quantum of money was the same.

    Never let the Libs get away with equating Gonski with money; they can win that argument. Their crime was destroying the process, the mechanism and the improved grass roots allocation of money on the basis of their ideology.

  23. Cudchewer, ausdavo

    True on Labor whiping out on the tax base reform and media laws. I grumbled here at the time about the terrible mistake of shelving the Henry tax review. It was a well thought out reform that would have fixed Howard’s problems while making virtually nobody on below average incomes worse off. Now the opportunity is lost for another decade.

  24. I have grumbled here many times about Labor’s failure to fix funding of tertiary education. Like Phil Vees comments on Gonski, the problem is the stupid way the funding is allocated, as much as the appalling decline in real terms. In this respect, the situation is worse than schools. Gillard was a terrible education minister on uni and research funding. Two of Australia’s most eminent researchers, Brian Schmidt and Ian Frazer, agree.
    [Professor Schmidt did not receive the ARC grant he applied for this year and said more money was needed through the council to support research.
    He branded Australia’s higher education funding system as ”crazy” for giving incentives for teaching as many students as cheaply as possible. ”You get what you pay for in education; clever country, my ass,” he said. ”You spend money, you get Nobel prizes; you spend money, you make breakthroughs; you spend money, you get research output.”]
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/scientists-stress-need-for-overhaul-of-science-funding-20131218-2zlp1.html#ixzz2nrXMbI1H

  25. Good Morning

    @TheKouk: Great news from US economy and Federal Reserve as it starts tightening monetary policy. Huge benefits for Aust economy

    Makes Hockey look the fool he is. Worse though is that $500 million would have saved Holden as the dollar finally falls.

  26. ausdave @5
    “The Abbott government is clearly planning to “punish” low (or no) income earners, pensioners etc. – the very people who he “used” to gain power”

    I don’t believe he thinks of it as punishment, following his remarks yesterday of how “liberating” impending job loss might be. In his warped mind (and that of the neo-cons in general) removing the safety nets and support from underneath those in need sorts those who can fend for themselves from those who can’t. It is a cynical social engineering exercise.

    And for those who voted against their own self-interest – maybe this is the PM and government they had to have to once and for all understand what they can and cannot expect from a Liberal government.

    My heart goes out to those caught up in this against their will. But if they keep quiet, he will be vindicated. We’ll find out soon enough how this will pan out.

  33. “@arusbridger: New laws to make NSA tell Congress what it does &cmake it easier for companies receiving Fisa orders to tell the public”

    Edward Snowden vindicated. Expect the witch hunt to continue against the Whistleblower however.

  34. Thanks from me again BK… I appreciate your morning efforts.

    It is my starting point each morning if I have been away from reading the PB for sometime.

    Thanks

  35. guytaur

    Let’s rely on Telstra copper, but don’t ask Telstra to be truthful about the state of their network.

    [Last week the government and NBN Co representatives at the Senate Estimates Committee admitted that neither had spoken to Telstra about the state of the copper network. This was an amazing admission at a time when NBN Co was about to release a review report recommending FTTN and other technologies be adopted.]

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/12/18/technology/turnbulls-nbn-house-cards

  36. This from a couple of days ago int the limited news business section. Apparently this Chris Gray
    hosts Your Property Empire each Friday on Sky News Business channel.

    Read it for a laugh

    [From all the industry insiders that I’ve spoken to, the majority believe that what we have seen in 2013 is just the tip of the iceberg for the next property cycle which started the day after the election.]

    http://www.perthnow.com.au/realestate/buying/how-to-pick-an-investment-property-hotspot-in-2014/story-fnhlgp6j-1226785830455

  38. Lizzie

    I watched most of the latest senate hearing as well as the one held a few weeks ago. My observations were that Turnbull together with the coalition and Ziggy and friends are attempting to foist fraudband upon the electorate. Of course, there will be winners from this whole fraud, and it wont be us

  41. Malcolm Turnbull is looking at the increasing potential of fibre optics in systems such as the NBN and he doesn’t like what he sees. What will it do to his precious copper? Surely its price has eventually gotta go south?

    So Malcolm has embarked on a cunning plan.

    As the richest man in the whole universe, and desirous of getting even richer, Malcolm has bought up all the supplies of copper on Earth and beyond, whilst planning to promote its use in as many production processes as possible

    Like taking candy-striped plastic–coated copper wiring off a baby!

    So, sing along with Mal, as he gets so rich he makes King Midas look like the poor man at the foot of Lazarus’ table.

    He is joyfully singing that old Bob Marley and the Wailers reggae number, “No woman, no cry”.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0jirlfhyz4

    :- )
    No copper, no die (x 4)
    :- )
    Said…said…said, I remember when we used to call it
    Adelaide, not Retrenchtown
    B…b…but, no-one can call me hypocrite
    As I will put a smile on their dials, not a frown
    See, I have bought up all the copper along the way
    Can’t make anythin’ without buyin’ my stash
    So come on board I say
    :- )
    No copper, no die
    No copper, no die
    ‘Ere little darlin’s, no substitutes
    No copper, no die
    :- )
    Said…said…said, I remember when we used to make
    Cars from pressed steel in Retrenchtown
    Tryin’ now to get Holden back
    Make ‘em use copper from my stack
    Would not have a problem with rusting
    But you’ll need to take out a second mortgage to buy one
    :- )
    So, with my monopoly
    The customers’ll be sorry
    But for me…
    Everythin’s gonna be alright (x 8)
    :- )
    So, no copper, no die
    No, no copper, no copper, no die
    Oh, my little darlin’s, don’t shed no tears
    No copper, no die
    :- )
    Said…said…said I remember when the boats used to be
    Made of corrugated iron and old driftwood
    Now I’m goin’ up to Jakarta to see
    If I can get all the old tubs on the cheap
    Bring ‘em back to my yard and fix ‘em
    Re-fit ‘em with a copper hull
    Then sell ‘em back to the people smugglers
    For an absolute motza
    Everythin’s gonna be ship shape (x 8)
    :- )
    So, no copper, no die
    No, no copper, no copper, no die
    Oh, my little darlin’s, don’t shed no tears
    No copper, no die
    :- )
    Said…said…said I remember when the NBN
    Was supposed to use carbon fibre instead of copper
    In the beginning I said I wanted carbon just to the node
    But now I’ve got my monopoly, can now say that was a whopper
    Fraudband will now entail a strategic change of plan
    Which I am now going to share with you
    Instead of carbon to the node
    It’ll be all the way with copper!
    Everythin’s gonna be NBN-lite (x 8)
    :- )
    So, no copper, no die
    No, no copper, no copper, no die
    Oh, my little darlin’s, don’t shed no tears
    No copper, no die

  42. [
    Aust foreign policy worries China

    The Chinese government has perceived a modification of Australian foreign policy by the Abbott government and the change threatens to hurt the nation’s relationship with Beijing, according to The Australian Financial Review.

    The report suggests experts have spotted a cooling of relations since Prime Minister Tony Abbott won the September federal election, pointing to government comments over the air dispute over the East China Sea and closer ties with Taiwan and Japan as signs of change.

    “I think there is an obvious shift in foreign policy under the new government, compared to the previous Labor government,” Wang Zhenyu, a research fellow at a think tank linked to China’s Foreign Ministry, told the AFR.

    If the current tension is not remedied, the Strategic Partnership signed between the two nations in April could be rendered “meaningless”, Mr Wang added, according to the report. ]

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2013/12/19/china/aust-foreign-policy-worries-china

  45. victoria

    Glenn Stevens giving the deadpan bureaucratic equivalent of “stop exaggerating, and calm down, Joe”.

    [Mr Stevens said the level of debt was not so bad that it was necessary to rush ahead with dramatic spending cuts in the next 12 months. ”We are not in such a dire position on the level of debt that we need to run in and slash the budget to fix that in the current year,” he said.

    ”The issue is the five-year horizon: are we having the right conversations about how much tax we are prepared to pay versus the things we want the government to give us?”

    ”That is the conversation we need to have, but that is not about any one particular year’s spending. It is about a credible path for the medium term.”]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/golden-days-gone-but-dont-rush-cuts-says-reserve-chief-glenn-stevens-20131218-2zlgr.html#ixzz2nrqVAQQ2

  47. CEO of Vinnies, John Falzon, was on ABC RN earlier today.

    Well did he give it to the Abbotteers and Hockey specifically.

    He accused Abbott of focusing entirely on “want”, not “need”, subsidising the former to the detriment of the latter.

    He said that those who need for nothing and want all are the ones best served by Abbott.

    Falzon was particularly derisive of Hockey at every opportunity. As to Hockey’s much repeated mantra that a rising tide lifts all boats, therefore everyone will benefit from the great economy he is about to create, Falzon pointed out the obvious that you’re stuffed if you haven’t got a boat or even a life jacket.

    He was also very critical of the “trickle down” benefits in the economy, seeing this mythical effect as an invention of the fairies at the bottom of the garden, in respect to those in real need.

    Those in need of a job, public housing, disability support, timely health support, and single parents on newstart were amongst those in dire need, said Falzon.

    He condemned Abbott’s lack of focus on the revenue side and called for modification (not abandonment) of capital gains and negative gearing provisions.

    Regarding negative gearing he suggested that the nature and ultimate use of the geared property (ie to provide affordable rental homes) should be an eligibility criterion for negative gearing.

    I don’t know if Falzon fits this category, but it shits me to tears to hear these post election, newly converted critics of Abbott emerging every day as they now discover what was bleedin obvious about Abbott-as-PM to anyone with half a brain over the last 3 years.

    There are so many “community leaders” who were wilfully deaf and silent, and failed the community by not speaking the truth about Abbott, pre-election.

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