Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor; ReachTEL: 52-48

The Labor-friendliest polling series offers the Labor-friendliest poll result of the Labor-friendliest polling period in some considerable time.

Morgan has sort-of-published a result showing Labor leading 52.5-47.5 on both respondent allocated and previous election preferences, up from 51.5-48.5 a fortnight ago, with primary votes of 40.5% for the Coalition (down one), 38.5% for Labor (steady), 10% for the Greens (up 1.5%) and 3.5% for Palmer United (steady). The poll was conducted over two weekends from a sample of 2879 respondents, suggesting they’ve changed methodology on us again. This information comes from the trend tables on the Morgan site – we are yet to see the usual weekly press release that would tell us more about the methodology.

UPDATE: Here we go. The methodology is still face-to-face plus SMS with no online component, so the larger sample is obviously down to the fact that the poll was conducted over two weekends instead of one.

UPDATE 2 (ReachTEL): And now courtesy of the Seven Network we have a ReachTEL automated phone poll timed to coincide with the 100 day anniversary (no hair-spitting please, Latin scholars) of the Abbott government, which reflects the overall trend in giving Labor a two-party lead of 52-48 from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition and 40% for Labor. It also has 50% rating the government’s performance so far as disappointing, 30% as good and 20% as satisfactory.

UPDATE 3: Full results from ReachTEL here. The full primary votes are 41.4% for the Coalition (down 2.8%), 40.4% for Labor (up an impressive 6.2%), 8.7% for the Greens (down 1.1%), 5.1% for the Palmer United Party (down 1.5%) and 4.4% for others (down 1.3%). Also included are personal ratings on a five-point scale for Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten. Abbott’s ratings have measurably weakened since the previous poll of November 21, while Bill Shorten tellingly has a net negative rating overall: obviously a lot of respondents whose incline to give the new guy the benefit of the doubt when given a straight approval-versus-disapproval option instead go for an intermediate option (“satisfactory” in this case) when one is available.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Essential Research assumes its traditional role of stick-in-the-mud in recording essentially no change on last week, with the Coalition still leading 51-49 from primary votes of 44% for the Coalition and 37% for Labor, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party each down a point, to 7% and 4% respectively. Also featured: who or what it’s been a good or bad year for (net bad for everything except, curiously, “your workplace” and “you and your family overall”, with “Australian politics generally” scoring 8% good and 70% bad), how the next 12 months are expected to compare (somewhat more optimistic, especially with respect to Australian politics), what the government should do about Qantas (an even divide between four listed options), the importance of car manufacturing (60% important, 33% not important), whether the government should provide subsidies to Holden (45% yes, 42% no) and the level of government support to Toyota should be increased (31% increase, 44% leave as is, 11% decrease).

On a somewhat similar note, The Australian last night published Newspoll figures from last week’s poll showing 15% expect their standard of living to improve over the next six months (up one from last time), 64% expect it to stay the same (up four) and 20% expect it to get worse (down three).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,320 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor; ReachTEL: 52-48”

  1. Further to previous post why can’t some of Australian golden workers be re-employed elsewhere.

    Being globally mobile is commonplace in the professional services sector therefore why isn’t it possible for a global manufacturing company to move its workforce around?

  2. Mod Lib, I’m just wondering why you’re going on and on and effing on about Julia Gillard’s supposed Carbon Tax lie.

    She’s out of politics, defeated, gone, hasta la vista baby.

    Can’t you let go of the past?

    I’m sure Julia has.

    No-one’s going to change their vote now. They did it 3 months ago.

  3. @Carey/2249

    One maybe, but multiple ones, given the treatment of the ALP received of it’s appointments.

    Is just completely wrong and unjustified, given the fact that this goverment is cost cutting.

  4. [Bushfire Bill
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 11:47 pm | PERMALINK
    Mod Lib, I’m just wondering why you’re going on and on and effing on about Julia Gillard’s supposed Carbon Tax lie.]

    Because you think that is “supposed” but saying you have no plans to do something, and then deciding to do it 6 weeks later is somehow a open and shut “lie”.

    ….just pointing out the hypocrisy, thats all :devil:

  5. Slothy
    [But Abbott mangled it, plus Keating’s economic reforms did deliver better, higher paid jobs whereas Abbott wouldn’t have a clue about how to do that, and doesn’t want to anyway.]
    Indeed so; we both agree he was clumsy. And after a career fighting against workers rights Abbott has no credibility claiming he wants to make anyone better off.

    As I also said, Weatherall has played the politics well. The facts are different. Elizabeth has major social problems even now while Holden is running. Unemployment is more than double the state average. Change is needed. But the coalition has managed to convince everyone they do not care either way.

  6. [mexicanbeemer
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 11:51 pm | PERMALINK
    Mod Lib

    Surely you have some good holiday stories ]

    Yep, but I get the feeling most here don’t want to hear what a jolly good time I had!

  7. It was always Labor policy to price carbon emissions. And the party achieved that in govt.

    Compare and contrast with the current govt, which has hid so much of its actual agenda from voters that it is so strongly criticised for reneging on the promises it made in opposition a mere 4 months ago or so.

  8. [confessions
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 11:54 pm | PERMALINK
    It was always Labor policy to price carbon emissions. And the party achieved that in govt.

    Compare and contrast with the current govt, which has hid so much of its actual agenda from voters that it is so strongly criticised for reneging on the promises]

    What promises?

  9. Night all. Shorten’s christmas wish should be for Abbott to have a press conference every day till Christmas. He cannot help himself from saying something stupid without Credlin screening the questions.

  10. Back on the political angle, I wonder how this will affect Docherty in Newland. Docherty is the current Mayor of Playford (where Holden is based.)

    While that can be spun as a positive for him, questions will inevitably be asked of how much he supports the Liberal line on this and, as much as I don’t like Tom Kenyon, he is a tough campaigner and, if there’s a weakness to exploit, you can guarantee he will exploit it.

    It will be an interesting race to watch in a seat that will be important for both parties.

  11. Well I went to Sapa in northern Vietnam, god awful overnight train to get there, and then went to Halong Bay and slept on a lovely boat with seafood meals…….also went to some smaller places without tourists with some Vietnamese speaking friends which was ace.

    Laos was unbelievable as confessions and I discussed the other day….

  12. [What promises?]

    *laughs*

    No fly soldier. If you aren’t up to speed with your party’s abject duplicity then I’m simply going to take pleasure in your denial of it.

  13. [confessions
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 11:58 pm | PERMALINK
    What promises?

    *laughs*

    No fly soldier. If you aren’t up to speed with your party’s abject duplicity then I’m simply going to take pleasure in your denial of it.]

    My aim in life is to bring pleasure to others.

  14. [Laos was unbelievable as confessions and I discussed the other day….]

    I met with health services in Laos. Not so amazeballs. In fact really depressingly reality and I’ll never forget the ‘skills’ health workers and medical personnel have to acquire in order to be effective.

  15. [ Mod Lib, I’m just wondering why you’re going on and on and effing on about Julia Gillard’s supposed Carbon Tax lie.

    She’s out of politics, defeated, gone, hasta la vista baby.

    Can’t you let go of the past? ]

    It is characteristic of conservatives that they have trouble adjusting to change.

    They don’t understand social change, so they oppose SSM.

    They don’t understand climate change, so they oppose an ETS.

    They don’t understand political change, so for them, Tony is still the golden-haired boy, manfully battling to rescue them from that uppity botch Julia.

    It’s only been 100 days since the election. It will take conservatives much more time than that to accept that Tony is in fact an imbecile in charge of a ship of fools, many of whom apparently still think they are heckling from the opposition benches, and that Murdoch will paper over all their fiascos for them.

    A few of them are just beginning to wonder why our regional neighbors are shaking their heads in disbelief, why industry is voting with their feet, and why the electorate is silently standing by, aghast at their amateur antics.

  16. Fessy

    Yes for all the positive stories we hear about Asia emerging economic power it still has plenty of people living in very poor conditions which i believe Australia can play a part in improving particularly the business sector once it gets over its Chine focus.

  17. [….just pointing out the hypocrisy, thats all :devil:]

    So what. she’s out of politics. The voters got their way. Why are you so obsessed with it? It’s finished. Over.

  18. [zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 12:05 am | PERMALINK
    @Mod Lib/2269

    Your failing at that job.]

    Ah…no…I’m doing quite well at it actually. Perhaps not here, but this place if full of haters.

    [Since we are talking about Australia, and not Asia.]

    Were we? Mex, confessions and I were talking about Asia. Multiple conversations can happen in parallel here. Can you keep up?

  19. mexican:

    We met with health officials in Vietnam, and they all denied the (then) spike in HIV notifications among sex workers, saying that there were no sex workers in the province. Despite clear evidence saying otherwise.

  20. [Bushfire Bill
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 12:07 am | PERMALINK
    ….just pointing out the hypocrisy, thats all :devil:

    So what. she’s out of politics. The voters got their way. Why are you so obsessed with it? It’s finished. Over.]

    Geez…..slow on the uptake around here, or what?

    Yes, Gillard is gone, done like a dinner. I get it. However, you are all accusing Abbott of being a liar so I am pointing out your double standards.

    Now, can you see “what”?

  21. Mod Lib

    Sometimes

    Some issues come around with pretty much the same set of comments then there are others which come along burn bright then wither away into the memory of the archive to be found by some researcher in 50 years time wanting to know the history of the Rudd/Gillard/Tone years

    Not sure what the read will get them a pass mark or a High Distinction.

  22. ML apparently the Coalition broken policies include but are not limited to:
    1 Not stopping all boats from Day 1;
    2 Not implementing the boat buy-back policy;
    3 Increasing the debt level;
    4 Increasing the deficit in the forward estimates;
    5 Watering down school funding (even though they eventually increased it);
    6 Extending the roll out period for NBNLite;
    7 Being secretive; and
    8 Handing down surprises.

    There is lots more but time won’t permit a comprehensive list.

  23. @Mod Lib/2275

    I have, While I do find it interesting discussions.

    Having been to Asia myself, primarily in Japan.

    You are however, having multiple conversations with multiple people, on different subjects.

  24. The only real broken promise the government has made is to cut the waste as thus far they have increased the debt level and made little effort at this early stage to reduce debt.

    The shop front has a nice new sign (under new management – open for business) but the door is locked and the shelves are empty and there is a pile of dust on the floor which needs picking up.

  25. Mod Lib@2269


    My aim in life is to bring pleasure to others.

    I don’t know you personally so I my opinion about you can only be based on what you write here. Given that, I doubt there is much truth in what you wrote above, possible quite the opposite. But hey as I said, I don’t know you personally.

    As for the lie, quote the whole damn sentence from her. And then after that, to answer your ‘follow’ remark, why don’t you follow this then (according to dictionary):
    “to lie: to make an untrue statement with intent to deceive”
    “to promise: a declaration that one will do or refrain from doing something specified”

    See the difference? Follow? Following history of the two people in question I know which one was more likely to have the intent to deceive when they made their remarks and that person ain’t a redhead.

  26. @Mod Lib/2288

    No, because you’re showing your hypocrisy by telling your stories of Asia, but then support the Party who offends Asia and blocks Australia off from Asia.

  27. OK so Gillard told a lie without intending it and Abbott told the truth with the intent to deceive.

    I promise I am really trying to understand your position here, truly I am! :devil:

  28. [zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 12:20 am | PERMALINK
    @Mod Lib/2288

    No, because you’re showing your hypocrisy by telling your stories of Asia, but then support the Party who offends Asia and blocks Australia off from Asia.]

    Right, so because I didn’t vote for Abbott, I can’t talk about my trip to Asia when Mex asks me because Indonesia is angry at Abbott because Rudd and Gillard spied on their President.

    Truly….I am doing my best to follow, its just that the real world doesn’t work on this logic so it is hard for us humans to work out the perspective here! :devil:

  29. I think the biggest lesson from the recent years has been not too put so much important into what a polly says during an election but rather what they say during their public career.

    And to allow pollies to change their minds from one election to the next.

  30. @Mod Lib/2293

    You talking about Real World?

    bahahaha, I’m sorry, but when you are talking on this blog, talking about Gillard all the time, and you want to talk about Real World?

  31. I wouldn’t do it except you make it so easy and irresistible!

    The good news is that I really have to get off to bed. The beauty sleep is desperately needed, trust me…

    Good night!

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