BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

This week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate puts Labor well into absolute majority territory, marking their sixth consecutive improvement.

The latest weekly BludgerTrack update neatly reflects the results of the most recent Newspoll, ReachTEL and Nielsen polls in landing bang on 52-48 to Labor. The Labor primary vote has a four in front of it for the first time since BludgerTrack opened for business at the start of the year, albeit by the barest of margins, with a 1.4% gain this week coming off a drop for minor parties while the Coalition holds steady at 40.9%. The latest state-level data points have fuelled a blowout in the result for Queensland, and while there has certainly been some indication of softness for the Coalition there recently (notably the 11% swing which showed up in Nielsen), I’m pretty sure the present extent of it will prove to be aberration. The two weakest state swings for Labor happen to be where elections are due shortly, although you might argue that a Holden shutdown effect is yet to come through in South Australia.

This will probably be the last update for the year – certainly Essential Research will not be back until the middle of next month, and I imagine that’s it for Morgan as well. Newspoll has never been in the business of polling beyond early December, but hopefully The Australian will shortly offer state breakdowns from its accumulated post-election polling so a bit more ballast can be added to the BludgerTrack state dataset.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,089 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

Comments Page 60 of 62
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  2. The guy who went to the Yandina pub to gave a drink with his sons is now facing a mandatory jail sentence, he is out on bail.

    He was visited by police at 1.30 AM Sunday to check he was not breaking bail conditions, just in case they checked again at 3.00AM.

    Christmas dinner for this family is illegal. Life in Qld under Newman.

    (None of these people had a single conviction for anything before the VLAD laws)

  4. Remember a couple of weeks ago the happy joy news coverage of the closing of Australia’s base in Uruzgan province and the “troops home by Christmas” guff that’s been on the 6pm news since then?

    Well my step-brother just got his call-up for a 6 month Tour to commence on 6 January 2014.

    “The war is over” my foot.

    Cynical bloody military news coverage for Christmas, and then while everyone is still in holiday mode we send another bevy of our young people into harm’s way for absolutely no bloody sound purpose whatsoever.

  8. Merry Xmas, fellow Bludgers. May you all keep safe, have a wonderful season. Thank you for your company!!! Much appreciated!

    William, the Vunderbar Bludger Boss, may your Christmas be joyous; thank you so much for your work and almost endless patience. Enjoy!

  16. One in in trouble for illegal phone hacking, the other was voted Euromoney Finance Minister of the Year.

    [ Wayne Swan ‏@SwannyQLD 23 Dec

    @rupertmurdoch wrong on Aust economy. Now 16% bigger than when Labor elected. Outperformed virtually every developed nation. Simple fact.
    Retweeted by margo kingston
    Expand

    Reply
    Retweet
    Favorite
    ]
    [
    Rupert Murdoch ‏@rupertmurdoch 23 Dec

    Australia in deep economic trouble left by last six year wildly incompetent govt. New govt must take quick, painful actions.
    ]

  17. [The guy who went to the Yandina pub to gave a drink with his sons is now facing a mandatory jail sentence, he is out on bail.]

    Weren’t they out on drug trafficking offenses?

  19. Thank you for the forum William. Merry Christmas to your goodself and all the other fine bludgeroonies.

    Have a fantastic time with family and friends, keep well and stay safe.

    Thanks everyone for keeping me updated through the year and especially to BK for the dawn postings.

    Cheers Big Ears… and “Go them Sharkies”

  22. [Graeme Swann ‏@Swannyg66 5h
    I’ve heard of some low forms of journalism before but preying on my 90 yr old gran? Hang your head in shame the low life responsible]

    A Murdoch publication, or that ghastly Murdoch-like British tabloid?

  24. [Well, if a pharmacy is knowingly trading in scams, it wouldn’t, by definition, be honest, would it?]

    All pharmacies trade in scams. Half the medications provided over the counter or on prescription don’t benefit the patient.

  25. Dio:

    If prescribed medication doesn’t benefit the patient, then isn’t that a scam by the prescribing GP rather than the pharmacist?

  26. Diogenes@2974

    Well, if a pharmacy is knowingly trading in scams, it wouldn’t, by definition, be honest, would it?


    All pharmacies trade in scams. Half the medications provided over the counter or on prescription don’t benefit the patient.

    Why do doctors write prescriptions that will be ineffective?

    A lot of over the counter medications don’t cure anything, but do provide symptomatic relief. Most purchasers would be aware of this and it often says so on the packaging.

  27. Diogenes

    How goes the pharma companies inviting doctors to very nice conferences these days ? It was quite a topic a while back but not much has been heard of it lately.

  28. [If prescribed medication doesn’t benefit the patient, then isn’t that a scam by the prescribing GP rather than the pharmacist?]

    In the case of prescription medicines, yes. For over the counter stuff it’s the pharmacist.

    Most of the time the prescription is in good faith though. It’s prescribed in the mistaken belief it will help the patient. Or on the basis that it might help the patient if enough people are prescribed it, like the anti-cholesterol drugs or vaccines.

  29. Dio:

    I draw the line at pharmacies stocking that homeophathic rubbish as selling it in pharmacies simply gives it a credence which isn’t warranted.

  30. bemused

    [A lot of over the counter medications don’t cure anything, but do provide symptomatic relief.]

    Many don’t do anything, like all the cough medicines as z’s pharmacist correctly pointed out.

    poroti

    [How goes the pharma companies inviting doctors to very nice conferences these days ? It was quite a topic a while back but not much has been heard of it lately.]

    That was banned for doctors working in public hospitals a while back. For GPs and private specialists, I gather it still happens but I’m not in an area targetted by Big Pharm as I’d only write twenty scripts a year.

  31. fess

    [I draw the line at pharmacies stocking that homeophathic rubbish as selling it in pharmacies simply gives it a credence which isn’t warranted.]

    I think all of them stock homeopathic water. You could argue that it does work in about 25% of people due to the placebo effect but I agree it’s very dodgy. I have never been able to work out why pharmacists rate so highly on “most trusted profession” surveys.

  33. [For GPs and private specialists, I gather it still happens ]

    It does still happen. One of my friends hawks stuff to GPs on behalf of a pharmaceutical company.

  34. Diogenes@2980

    bemused

    A lot of over the counter medications don’t cure anything, but do provide symptomatic relief.


    Many don’t do anything, like all the cough medicines as z’s pharmacist correctly pointed out.

    Maybe. But some do seem to suppress the coughing urge. As I say, they provide symptomatic relief, but no cure.

    Another thing I have noticed is that some old favourite medicines and other treatments are now no longer sold. The reason for the withdraw of some is that they had opiates in them. Never used to cause a problem, but now it apparently does, due to our drug addict ‘friends’.

    Another one, Golden Eye Ointment, which was quite effective, contained mercury.

  35. Had a cat and a girlfriend once.

    The cat was very sick. Severe dermatitis. Looked like a flea allergy that had gone septic.

    Girlfriend treated it with homeopathic medicines, as she was a student at Nature Care, a private college in Sydney dealing in alternative medicines.

    The cat was clearly dying, slowly, ripping itself to pieces.

    It got so bad that I secretly took it to the vet (the Bondi Junction vet, actually, the original one) and he told me off in a brilliant exhibition of economy of words for letting the cat’s condition get so bad.

    Got anti-biotics, and a cream, plus Ovarid hormone tablets. But continued giving the cat the homeopathic remedy as well,publicly at least. The dead of night was time for its creams, pills and hormone tablets.

    Miracle recovery!

    The girlfriend was triumphant. See? Homeopathy DOES work, BB!

    I put up with this for two weeks and finally one night, the worse for wear from red wine, I told her the truth.

    She was so crestfallen that the relationship couldn’t continue. She had been humiliated. She left me a couple of months later, having never recovered from what she saw as my “put down”, “belittling” of her.

    I really loved that lady, and still do, and although we were friends for a while, I now haven’t seen her for 20 years. Miss her every day, in a mild sort of far-off way.

    The cat lived until he was 22 years old, another 11 years. He just went to sleep one day and never woke up.

    I know I did the right thing, and know it was worth it, but I often wonder about that lady, and that cat and what would have happened if I’d let him die, as he so plainly was doing so.

    Dunno whether I’d have been happy or sad today.

  36. [Diogenes
    Posted Tuesday, December 24, 2013 at 8:47 pm | Permalink

    …
    if enough people are prescribed it, like the anti-cholesterol drugs]

    ?????????????? hard to see a herd effect, hard to see any effect, have you read the sheet that comes with that stuff. Only effective if your caucasian, statistics gone wild.

  37. [Maybe. But some do seem to suppress the coughing urge. As I say, they provide symptomatic relief, but no cure.]

    The ones with a narcotic like pholcodine suppress coughing but most don’t have it. Plenty of studies show they don’t do anything.

  38. fred

    There is no herd effect with cholesterol but you need to give it to a lot of people before you prevent a stroke or heart attack.

  40. [Diogenes
    Posted Tuesday, December 24, 2013 at 9:19 pm | Permalink

    fred

    There is no herd effect with cholesterol but you need to give it to a lot of people before you prevent a stroke or heart attack.
    ]
    Or in other words, close to useless, the conclusion I came to when I read the bit about only be effective if your Caucasian.

    The same can’t be said for vaccines, they are effective and there is a herd effect.

  41. Twas the nizzle before Christmizzle, and all through the hizzle…

    Not a crizzle was stirring, not even a mizzle.

    fo shizzle.

    All were awaiting Sizzle Clause and his bag

    To bring the good homies and bitches their swag.

    Merry Xhristmas all you dudes.

  43. Diogenes@2987

    Maybe. But some do seem to suppress the coughing urge. As I say, they provide symptomatic relief, but no cure.


    The ones with a narcotic like pholcodine suppress coughing but most don’t have it. Plenty of studies show they don’t do anything.

    Yes, the one I had as a kid was Sednine and I recall the ingredients including something like phlocodeine linctus.

    It was really effective but no longer sold. Is there anything similar still sold?

    I find sucking on a ‘cough lolly’ helps to suppress coughing but am pretty sure it is more the effect of the sucking on it and saliva produced rather than any medicinal effect.

  44. mikeh:

    As one of my bogan blokesville relatives charmingly informed me tonight, xmas is the only time of the year when fisting poultry is entirely appropriate. How I managed not to throw the chicken at him as he said it is anyone’s guess.

    We haven’t even had xmas day and already I wish it was over!

  45. If anyone wants some good holiday viewing, the whole of Jacob Bronowski’s “The Ascent of Man” is on Youtube.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLABYAhRxNY
    This is IMHO the best TV science series ever made. I doubt it would be possible now, in our dumbed-down age. The episode on the trial of Galileo is just riveting.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Kr4o4CxYLQ
    (Jonathan Pettingale’s channel has the first few episodes, but then you have to switch over to Francisco Javier Torres Rodríguez’s channel, where you’ll find the rest, with Spanish subtitles.)

  47. I suppose I should throw in my Christmas Greetings to all before I forget to do so and Christmas arrives. 😛

    Merry Christmas to all bludgers and most particularly our gracious host William.

    And may you all have a Happy and Prosperous new year.

  49. Diogenes

    Check out some of the old Martindale’s Extra Pharmacopoeias . Up until the midish 1950’s your babies cough medicine was likely to have heroin in it as an antitussive .

  50. Diogenes@2998

    bemused

    Some of the “dry cough” syrups have it.

    Thanks, I will check that out next time it is appropriate.

    Another old favourite was Chlorodyne for stomach upsets. It had all sorts of goodies in it and you just added a few drops to some water in a medicine glass and took it.

    Tasted foul, but worked like a charm and very quickly.

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