Morgan has sort-of-published a result showing Labor leading 52.5-47.5 on both respondent allocated and previous election preferences, up from 51.5-48.5 a fortnight ago, with primary votes of 40.5% for the Coalition (down one), 38.5% for Labor (steady), 10% for the Greens (up 1.5%) and 3.5% for Palmer United (steady). The poll was conducted over two weekends from a sample of 2879 respondents, suggesting they’ve changed methodology on us again. This information comes from the trend tables on the Morgan site – we are yet to see the usual weekly press release that would tell us more about the methodology.
UPDATE: Here we go. The methodology is still face-to-face plus SMS with no online component, so the larger sample is obviously down to the fact that the poll was conducted over two weekends instead of one.
UPDATE 2 (ReachTEL): And now courtesy of the Seven Network we have a ReachTEL automated phone poll timed to coincide with the 100 day anniversary (no hair-spitting please, Latin scholars) of the Abbott government, which reflects the overall trend in giving Labor a two-party lead of 52-48 from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition and 40% for Labor. It also has 50% rating the government’s performance so far as disappointing, 30% as good and 20% as satisfactory.
UPDATE 3: Full results from ReachTEL here. The full primary votes are 41.4% for the Coalition (down 2.8%), 40.4% for Labor (up an impressive 6.2%), 8.7% for the Greens (down 1.1%), 5.1% for the Palmer United Party (down 1.5%) and 4.4% for others (down 1.3%). Also included are personal ratings on a five-point scale for Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten. Abbott’s ratings have measurably weakened since the previous poll of November 21, while Bill Shorten tellingly has a net negative rating overall: obviously a lot of respondents whose incline to give the new guy the benefit of the doubt when given a straight approval-versus-disapproval option instead go for an intermediate option (“satisfactory” in this case) when one is available.
UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Essential Research assumes its traditional role of stick-in-the-mud in recording essentially no change on last week, with the Coalition still leading 51-49 from primary votes of 44% for the Coalition and 37% for Labor, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party each down a point, to 7% and 4% respectively. Also featured: who or what it’s been a good or bad year for (net bad for everything except, curiously, “your workplace” and “you and your family overall”, with “Australian politics generally” scoring 8% good and 70% bad), how the next 12 months are expected to compare (somewhat more optimistic, especially with respect to Australian politics), what the government should do about Qantas (an even divide between four listed options), the importance of car manufacturing (60% important, 33% not important), whether the government should provide subsidies to Holden (45% yes, 42% no) and the level of government support to Toyota should be increased (31% increase, 44% leave as is, 11% decrease).
On a somewhat similar note, The Australian last night published Newspoll figures from last week’s poll showing 15% expect their standard of living to improve over the next six months (up one from last time), 64% expect it to stay the same (up four) and 20% expect it to get worse (down three).
@Dio & @Zoomster
What he really says isn’t what he really means, right?
Have you all caught up with the news that ICAC has terminated the Coal leases that were owned by John Maitland and Ian MacDonald.
A whole lot of other businessmen and associates involved in the leases have all been taken out as well.
Good job by ICAC.
Things are getting worse for the Obeid family.
Locals are happy with the decision.
zoomster@1899
Costello still needs the tories to get him a job after all this time ?
Zoidlord,
I think it’s “what we hear him say isn’t what he really means, and he’ll stick to the promises he means, not the ones we he hear him say”.
@MTBW/1902
That’s a good result, and a correct one to go for.
Good job ICAC.
Locals can go on with their lives now.
Yes. It will cause some turmoil in the industry, and there’re obvious political motivations for O’Farrell to hammer the ALP, but it’s a good move. No one should be allowed to benefit from Obeid/Macdonald style dealings.
What has Abbott done in his first 100 days?
As Saul Easlake, arguably the no.1 economist in the country has said, “Australia open for business NOT”.
Abbott has effectively terminated future foreign investment, closed the car manufacturing industry, caused tense relations with overseas neighbours and trading partners and now obviously plans a series of austerity measures that WILL slow the economy.
Abbott must go!
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/pm-tony-abbott-rules-out-giving-sophie-mirabella-a-government-job/story-fni0cx12-1226756465160
Maybe it wasn’t a lie, he just told the truth incorrectly
boomy1@1908
It wasn’t in writing and he can lie to the media /ABC ?
@Jackol/1904
Ah yes, that’s the correct one.
It wasn’t a lie. Intentions change over time.
Dave @1909
He just seems to say anything and remain unchallenged.
The PM can get away with it but I can’t.
He’s an inspiration to shysters and charlatans everywhere.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/former-treasurer-peter-costello-to-head-future-fund-20131218-2zka2.html
Talk about the perfect appointment! 🙂
Davidwh
[It wasn’t a lie. Intentions change over time.]
Tonyliar.
Davidwh, “It wasn’t a lie. Intentions change over time.” – you forgot the disclaimer: “This does not apply to the Labor Party”.
Phony Abbott ;).
The same people who think “There will be no carbon tax under a Government I lead” and then introducing a carbon tax under a government she led is not a lie, whereas saying in Nov you don’t have plans to do something and then doing it in December is a lie.
I think it get it…….hmmmmm……perhaps not……. :devil:
Mod, you don’t get it. The point is that having given nothing you will get nothing in return.
You will all be happy to learn this I am sure:
Clive Palmer’s wife has just delivered a baby girl.
[ boomy1
Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 4:24 pm | Permalink
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/pm-tony-abbott-rules-out-giving-sophie-mirabella-a-government-job/story-fni0cx12-1226756465160
Maybe it wasn’t a lie, he just told the truth incorrectly
]
——————————————————
Yes – the old Sean Tisme ‘not telling a lie trick ‘
Sean Tisme
Posted Wednesday, November 27, 2013 at 3:41 pm | Permalink
There is a big difference between lying and not telling the complete truth
[I think it get it…….hmmmmm……perhaps not…….]
And of course the reason you claim that is just because you’re so selective in your quoting and so a reliable source of nothing.
Hypothetical:
Nov 9th: I do not have plans to buy a car.
Dec 16th: I see a car and decide to buy it.
Did I lie on Nov 9th?
@davidwh/1911
No, if this was Labor, it be all over DailyTerror.
@Mod Lib/1913
No it’s not.
Because that means Future Fund will be for sale sign on remaining gov owned assets.
Davidwh,
You would never get it, as you are part of the misogynistic vilification of a woman who dared to be Prime Minister of Australia. I hope you are proud of yourself, because your female descendents are going refer to you in less than glowing terms.
Talking of new babies:
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-signals-he-may-be-open-to-negotiations-on-paid-parental-leave-20131218-2zkxd.html
@Mod Lib/1922
If this was Labor, that is what you would be saying.
No justification whatever the double standards apply on PB.
ModLib
ah, so you’re letting Gillard off the hook, then?
Good.
Puff, I don’t think that’s fair. From the things he’s said I believe david prefers JG (if only barely :P) to both KR and TA.
Not MT though ;).
[ModLib
ah, so you’re letting Gillard off the hook, then?
Good.]
Not before time!
Only took him/her 3 years…
It might be in a best-of-a-bad-lot kind of way though :P.
Gosh, really is alternate reality here….no-one seems to fathom my #1922.
Not really a hard concept out there in the real world in case any of you want to venture out there once in a while.
…..might do some of you some good methinks……:)
[ He’s an inspiration to shysters and charlatans everywhere. ]
Yes – but he is burning political capital without result, without result that counts.
The hard bit will include dealing with the recommendations of the so called “commission of audit” which will contain stuff the tories already know they what to cut etc, but its all going to come when state elections, maybe the Qld by election and WA senate re run come along.
If, big if he is still on the nose and he ends up with an unfriendly new senate then what does he do after burning so much political capital ??
http://www.japantoday.com/category/crime/view/80-of-black-companies-guilty-of-illegal-business-practices-survey-finds
“The ministry carried out the first such survey, covering 5,111 companies, in September. The term “black company” (ブラック企業) refers to businesses that violate labor laws, such as forcing employees to work great amounts of overtime without proper compensation, unfairly dismiss workers, refuse holidays and other illegal practices.”
Is why we have such laws here.
If Abbott can give $16 million to a Cadbury factory in Tasmania, how come he can only find $60 million for GMH workers in two States?
The guy is a Tism.
[zoidlord
Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 4:39 pm | PERMALINK
…..@Mod Lib/1913
No it’s not.]
Yes it is.
[zoidlord
Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 4:41 pm | PERMALINK
@Mod Lib/1922
If this was Labor, that is what you would be saying.]
No I wouldn’t.
[No justification whatever the double standards apply on PB.]
There is only one standard on PB:
“Anything and everything must be seen in terms of what improves the ALP vote”
You support Abbott’s cynical and politically expedient deceptions, Mod. There’s really nothiing else to say.
dave
[he ends up with an unfriendly new senate then what does he do after burning so much political capital ??]
“they were non-core promises”.
Poor old Mod Lib.
Are you suggesting the ALP will campaign on Tony Abbott’s “lie” about appointing Ms Mirabella in 2016, like the Coalition did regarding Julia Gillard’s “lie” about the so-called carbon tax?
@Mod Lib/1935
Completely uncalled for.
Your posts pre election and after election tell different story.
And that is why Abbott is here now.
Backflip in five….four….thre……
Tony Abbott signals he may be open to negotiations on paid parental leave
[Tony Abbott has hinted he may be willing to change features of his generous paid parental leave scheme to get the legislation passed through the Senate.
The Prime Minister had, until now, refused to budge on his signature policy, which will cost $5.5 billion a year. It is loathed by many of Mr Abbott’s colleagues, who are concerned about the pressure the policy may apply to an already stressed budget.
Nationals MPs and senators have threatened to cross the floor over the policy, which they view as fundamentally unfair – while some working mothers will earn $75,000 under the policy, stay-at-home mothers will be left on the minimum wage.
The policy, which Mr Abbott introduced as a “captain’s call” without consulting his colleagues, will still go ahead despite a bleak outlook revealed in the mid-year economic update, the Prime Minister insisted on Wednesday.]
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-signals-he-may-be-open-to-negotiations-on-paid-parental-leave-20131218-2zkxd.html
[Darren Laver
Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 4:54 pm | PERMALINK
Poor old Mod Lib.
Are you suggesting the ALP will campaign on Tony Abbott’s “lie” about appointing Ms Mirabella in 2016, like the Coalition did regarding Julia Gillard’s “lie” about the so-called carbon tax?]
God I hope they do! :devil:
Then some of you might get some insight into how little insight you have about the real world!
[zoidlord
Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 4:55 pm | PERMALINK
@Mod Lib/1935
Completely uncalled for.]
What is uncalled for?
[Your posts pre election and after election tell different story.]
How?
[And that is why Abbott is here now.]
Me not voting for the Coalition is how Abbott is here now?
Geesh, how much does ice cream cost in this alternate universe?
[Then some of you might get some insight into how little insight you have about the real world!]
And tell me, is this “real world” you speak of working as a doctor on the north shore and claiming wedding expenses as a ‘deduction’ and then travelling the world?
😉
@Mod Lib/1942
You’re in denial again, especially after questioning me last night/yesterday.
Is the position on the Australian Submarine Corporation board a paid position? If it’s not, then it’s a not a “job” in the usual meaning of that word.
[Is the position on the Australian Submarine Corporation board a paid position? ]
Yes $75,000 pa. Board meets monthly.
[Yes $75,000 pa. Board meets monthly.]
Nice work if you can get it, as they say…
psephos,
Smells like a paid sinecure to me!
http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/labor-criticises-mirabella-appointment/story-e6frfku9-1226785556605
$75k, x4 much as a Pensioner gets.
Dio, CTaR1
That was Surprise No 56 of 61:
Surprise No 56. Despite stating that he had no plan for giving Mirabella a job after the good burghers of Indi turfed her out, and the despite the fact that Mirabella developed no policies whatever as Shadow Industry Minister, and despite the fact that Mirabella knows less than a gnat about submarines, and despite the submarine decision being one of the biggest ever expenditure decisions in Australian history, the Abbott Government appoints Mirabella to the ASC.