Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor; ReachTEL: 52-48

The Labor-friendliest polling series offers the Labor-friendliest poll result of the Labor-friendliest polling period in some considerable time.

Morgan has sort-of-published a result showing Labor leading 52.5-47.5 on both respondent allocated and previous election preferences, up from 51.5-48.5 a fortnight ago, with primary votes of 40.5% for the Coalition (down one), 38.5% for Labor (steady), 10% for the Greens (up 1.5%) and 3.5% for Palmer United (steady). The poll was conducted over two weekends from a sample of 2879 respondents, suggesting they’ve changed methodology on us again. This information comes from the trend tables on the Morgan site – we are yet to see the usual weekly press release that would tell us more about the methodology.

UPDATE: Here we go. The methodology is still face-to-face plus SMS with no online component, so the larger sample is obviously down to the fact that the poll was conducted over two weekends instead of one.

UPDATE 2 (ReachTEL): And now courtesy of the Seven Network we have a ReachTEL automated phone poll timed to coincide with the 100 day anniversary (no hair-spitting please, Latin scholars) of the Abbott government, which reflects the overall trend in giving Labor a two-party lead of 52-48 from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition and 40% for Labor. It also has 50% rating the government’s performance so far as disappointing, 30% as good and 20% as satisfactory.

UPDATE 3: Full results from ReachTEL here. The full primary votes are 41.4% for the Coalition (down 2.8%), 40.4% for Labor (up an impressive 6.2%), 8.7% for the Greens (down 1.1%), 5.1% for the Palmer United Party (down 1.5%) and 4.4% for others (down 1.3%). Also included are personal ratings on a five-point scale for Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten. Abbott’s ratings have measurably weakened since the previous poll of November 21, while Bill Shorten tellingly has a net negative rating overall: obviously a lot of respondents whose incline to give the new guy the benefit of the doubt when given a straight approval-versus-disapproval option instead go for an intermediate option (“satisfactory” in this case) when one is available.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Essential Research assumes its traditional role of stick-in-the-mud in recording essentially no change on last week, with the Coalition still leading 51-49 from primary votes of 44% for the Coalition and 37% for Labor, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party each down a point, to 7% and 4% respectively. Also featured: who or what it’s been a good or bad year for (net bad for everything except, curiously, “your workplace” and “you and your family overall”, with “Australian politics generally” scoring 8% good and 70% bad), how the next 12 months are expected to compare (somewhat more optimistic, especially with respect to Australian politics), what the government should do about Qantas (an even divide between four listed options), the importance of car manufacturing (60% important, 33% not important), whether the government should provide subsidies to Holden (45% yes, 42% no) and the level of government support to Toyota should be increased (31% increase, 44% leave as is, 11% decrease).

On a somewhat similar note, The Australian last night published Newspoll figures from last week’s poll showing 15% expect their standard of living to improve over the next six months (up one from last time), 64% expect it to stay the same (up four) and 20% expect it to get worse (down three).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,320 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor; ReachTEL: 52-48”

  1. [Is the position on the Australian Submarine Corporation board a paid position? If it’s not, then it’s a not a “job” in the usual meaning of that word.]

    Well that would be very tricky.

    When you’re being paid $75,000 a year + travel allowance + accommodation you get to do no work?

    That’ll pass the ‘pub test’ for sure.

    FMD

  2. [Darren Laver
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 4:59 pm | PERMALINK
    Then some of you might get some insight into how little insight you have about the real world!

    And tell me, is this “real world” you speak of working as a doctor on the north shore and claiming wedding expenses as a ‘deduction’ and then travelling the world?]

    Do you think doctors live in an alternate world?

    What is wrong with the North Shore? I don’t live or work there but I am not anti it, like others….

    What is wrong with claiming wedding expenses if it is allowed under the scheme (I haven’t done it, but I don’t see anything wrong with it given it is an eligible expense)

    What is wrong with travelling the world? I have been doing it for decades, have been to more than 1 in every 5 countries and plan to reach 100% by the time I die. Do you have a problem with that?*

    *PS: Thank you for not including whether I sit up the front of the plane or not :devil:

  3. Mirabella’s first question will no doubt be: ‘Where is the submarine shed?’

    %3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.uboataces.com%252Farticles-uboat-bunker.shtml%3B350%3B191

  4. [zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 5:00 pm | PERMALINK
    @Mod Lib/1942

    You’re in denial again, especially after questioning me last night/yesterday.]

    Denial about what?

    Questioning you last night? Huh? I asked you whether you what was wrong with calling you a “leftie” when you said you were on the left of the political spectrum.

  5. Re Boomy1 @1908 – it’s just that everyone, including the Daily Telecrap, heard him incorrectly. He’s keeping the pledge he made (taxpayer-funded jobs for defeated Coalition frontbenchers), not the one everyone thought he made (no sinecure for Sophie).

  6. @Mod Lib/1955

    Yes, I said that’s where ABC put me, it doesn’t mean that I agree with it.

    That’s why you righties think you always right and never wrong, so you argue to death about it.

  7. [zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 5:11 pm | PERMALINK
    @Mod Lib/1955

    Yes, I said that’s where ABC put me, it doesn’t mean that I agree with it.

    That’s why you righties think you always right and never wrong, so you argue to death about it.]

    So where do you see yourself then?

    Do you see yourself as a “rightie” do you?

  8. [ruawake
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 5:11 pm | PERMALINK
    Abbott can find $100 million for mobile phone blackspots, but only $60 million for Holden workers, disgusting.]

    Some might think the government should not be throwing money at failed businesses at all.

  9. Leftie and rightie are such useless categorizations. I only use them when I want to pretend* I’m an idiot.

    * dave need not chime in with a helpful comment 😉

  10. If Gonski is resigning from the FF in February and a new Chairman will be appointed “in the new year” why the Costello announcement today?

    Surely he isn’t going to go from acting to actual Chairman? Bet he is. 🙁

  11. Mod Lib, which world do you think someone lives in who supports progressive policies but opposes the party that proposes and is against right wing policies but votes for a right wing party?

    He might have a few loose screws rattling around in his brain!

  12. Here are some pithy comments from one Holesgrove in yesterday’s Crikey:

    [However, never in my experience have I seen an environment minister like Hunt, who is working actively to destroy Australia’s national environment governance system and critically important nationally protected areas that have been built up over the last 40 years by successive Labor and LNP governments. Your article focuses on climate change and refers to the Abbot Point approval. But to this I could add, just off the top of my head: the delegation of most Commonwealth environment approval powers to the states; its announced intent to completely overturn the critically important national marine reserve system; the intent to de-list the new World Heritage-listed Tasmanian forests area; the bizarre inquiry that will look at how “environmental regulations encroach on freedoms”; the abandonment of a deal to work with Japan and NZ on monitoring of Southern bluefin tuna; Australia’s refusal to support the international green climate fund; and, the recent disallowance of two critically endangered communities (one of which is the River Murray system).

    It is difficult to identify any action by Hunt that is actually a positive for Australia’s environment.]

  13. @Mod Lib/1961

    Why should I answer to you when you verbally bully me?

    @Mod Lib/1962

    Is throwing money in blackspot area’s also a failed business case?

    Because Private industry is not picking up the slack.

    Ziggy made some comments about so called ‘business case’ as well.

  14. Re paid parental leave – Labor and the Greens should do Abbott and Hockey a favour by capping it at the median wage while keeping as much of the company tax levy as is required to fund it. In fact the levy is probably not enough to fund the reduced scheme. Abbott can then either accept the changes and save billions or ‘defer’ (drop) the scheme and save more billions and not impose a levy on business.

    Question: wouldn’t such a levy be passed on, be a ‘wrecking ball’ through the economy, cause ‘unimaginable’ price rises and wipe out a medium-sized country town?

  15. http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/coalition-in-a-froth-over-milk-20120228-1u13a.html

    I can’t access this link anymore but maybe you can.

    Its an account of fighting within the Liberal Party weekly meeting that somebody leaked.
    It includes Sophie telling someone to take their Alzheimer’s pills and notes that Abbott’s PPL scheme is considered ‘too good’ by someone else.

    PPL was/is never going to get up.
    It was always a promise made to be later forgotten, sorta like ‘unity’ on Gonski.
    Not for budget reasons but simply because the COALition is mainly made up of misogynist males.

    Interestingly the OO [at the time], now GG, version of the same meeting accidentally failed to mention the disunity.

  16. DN I certainly would prefer Julia Gillard to both Rudd and Abbott. From my perspective her failings had nothing to do with her gender and were a combination the circumstances she found herself in and some really silly decisions as PM.

    In relation to TAPM to date he hasn’t failed in my expectations of him … unfortunately. I wish he would surprise on the upside 🙁

  17. [zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 5:18 pm | PERMALINK
    @Mod Lib/1961

    Why should I answer to you when you verbally bully me?]

    How?

    Geez, is anyone keeping count of these unsubstantiated allegations?

    Just give me one post where I have done any of the things you have accused me of doing….just one…..you know, for a laugh and all…..:devil:

  18. Hmmm. Having promised an NDIS, the Abbott Government is talking ‘affordability’.

    In other words, those with a disability and those caring for those with a disability should be getting themselves ready to the f*cked over by a Liberal/National Government reverting to its DNA.

  19. Sophie Mirabella will be joining the impressive Dr Rosalind Dubs on the ASC board.

    [Minister for Finance and Deregulation, Senator Penny Wong, today (May 3, 2013) announced the three-year appointment of Dr Rosalind Dubs to the board of ASC Pty Ltd.

    ASC is Australia’s largest specialised defence shipbuilding organisation and employs over 2,400 people in South Australia and Western Australia.

    “The expertise Dr Dubs brings from her roles on other boards, together with her professional experience, is invaluable,” Senator Wong said.

    Dr Dubs has experience across several industries, in both senior executive and board roles in publicly-listed, private and government companies, including numerous
    executive positions in European and American business units of the large engineering
    firm, Thales.

    Dr Dubs is Chair of the Space Industry Innovation Council and sits on the Aristocrat Leisure Limited Board.

    She previously sat on the Board of Structural Monitoring Systems Plc and was also Deputy Vice-Chancellor for the University of Technology in Sydney.

    “Along with ASC’s Chair, Bruce Carter, and fellow directors, Dr Dubs will play a key role in building ASC’s role in strengthening Australia’s defence capabilities.”

    The appointment of Dr Dubs takes the level of female representation on the ASC Board to 43 per cent, exceeding the Government’s target of 40 per cent female representation on Australian Government Boards. ]

    http://www.pennywong.com.au/assets/PENNY-WONG-MEDIA-RELEASE-NEW-DIRECTOR-APPOINTED-TO-DEFENCE-SHIPBUILDING-ORGANISATION-ASC-PTY-LTD.pdf

  20. ML

    [Geez, is anyone keeping count of these unsubstantiated allegations?]

    Yep. We are up to 61 surprises from a group of charlatans that promised:

    no lies
    no surprises
    no excuses.

  21. [DisplayName
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 5:19 pm | PERMALINK
    Centre @ 1967, the primary divide between Labor and Liberal is not left-right. It’s class.]

    Class you say?

    as in, we righties have it and you lefties don’t or we went to it and you guys didn’t?

    Hehe 🙂

  22. @Mod Lib/1979

    You are now verballing me, by suggesting that “unsubstantiated allegations” and then get accused by you that I accused you of something.

    I did NOT start this nonsense remember.

    It was you, last night, questioning me.

    I know what your trying to do, you either trying to get me in trouble, trying to get me into a corner, or your trying something else.

    Either stop, or bugger off.

  23. zoidlord:

    All i am trying to do is understand your point (any of them!)

    You are offended that Sean calls you a “leftie” and then admit on this same blog that when you did the political spectrum test on the ABC you came out on the left of the political spectrum. Yet that is somehow deeply offensive to you.

    It is almost as though you are out on the hunt for something to be offended about….

  24. If somebody thinks providing funds to certain industry such as the car manufacturing industry is simply throwing money at failed businesses are really ill informed.

    For every $1 invested in the car manufacturing industry, $18 was returned in benefit to the economy.

    Betting on the least informed Liberal:

    Mod Lib $1.67

    Tisme $2.25

  25. @mod Lib/1991

    Yes, because multiple times I get accused of being a leftie without any proof that I am a leftie.

    Other times I get accused of being part of a political party like the ALP, but do not believe I am not part of one (or any).

    Just because I agree with alot of Labor idea’s, policies, does not make me a leftie or whatever.

    I get offended because of that.

  26. [ the primary divide between Labor and Liberal is not left-right. It’s class.]

    I disagree. Its more fundamental than that. Currently the main distinction is competence. ALP is, LNP not.

  27. [Centre
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 5:32 pm | PERMALINK
    If somebody thinks providing funds to certain industry such as the car manufacturing industry is simply throwing money at failed businesses are really ill informed.

    For every $1 invested in the car manufacturing industry, $18 was returned in benefit to the economy.]

    Fantastic, then lets put a Trillion* in and we can all eat at Tetsuyas and drive BMWs to our First Class Round the World trips.

    *May need to make it ALP Money rather than real money though

  28. Liberal – either unconcerned with or actively encourage the entrenchment or formation of class. Lean to vertical heirarchies.

    Labor – concerned with balance, a level playing field, a fair go, systems that dismantle or discourage the formation of class. Lean to flat social structures.

    Greens – loonies – for argument’s sake 😉 – that presumably lean to the higgledy piggledy.

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