Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

The first poll conducted since the government’s Gonski reversal finds, not unexpectedly, a sharp move to Labor.

The fortnightly Morgan poll, conducted from a sample of 2018 by face-to-face and SMS, provides further support for the recently recorded move against the Coalition, perhaps exacerbated by the Gonksi debacle. Labor is up no less than six points on the primary vote to 38.5%, with the Coalition down only a point to 41.5% off a below-par base from the previous poll. That leaves the Greens to fall 2.5% to 8.5%, with the Palmer United Party down 1.5% to 3.5% and others down one to 8%. This translates to a 51.5-48.5 lead to Labor on both respondent-allocated and 2013 election preferences.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

931 comments on “Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

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  1. Can one of the learned people in here please explain to me what the orders in Slippers case mean.

    I just heard that Slipper has requested a permanent stay and the prosecution has until 10am tomorrow to oppose the order.

    Can someone enlighten me in simple man terms because I am a simple man.

    Thanks in advance

  2. [Can someone enlighten me in simple man terms because I am a simple man.]
    Don’t know the details but you might get a stay if, for example, a fair trial was impossible due to media coverage of the charges against you.

    They are harder to get than they used to be.

    The deadline for tomorrow sounds like a procedural thing only.

  3. Jackol@19

    If the Feds really have just promised a wad of cash to WA, Queensland and the NT with no strings attached, and if Campbell Newman really just said “yeah, I’m going to put most of that extra cash into private schools”, that’s a complete travesty and mismanagement of funds.

    Worst. Government. Evah.

    If I were able, I would ask Campell Newman why he thinks that people who can barely feed their families, let alone pay for the basics towards their children’s education, have to subsidies the private school education of children whose parents clearly need no assistance.

  4. Abbott in charge of any welfare policy makes me nervous.
    Abbott having the potential to take us to war makes me both nervous and angry. Bumblefooted fool.

  5. [the price should be a shiny new set of F-22As and a release from our JSF obligations.]

    They seem to be a short term proposition.

  6. The other problem for Park is that Seoul would more or less disappear within 24 hours of a conventional regional war starting.

  7. bemused

    [Having the sense to dump Gillard and re-install Rudd spared us that fate.]

    FPS … give it a rest. Without re-opening that argument, on which I have nothing to add, it is clear that a context other than Gillard/Rudd is driving these figures. Both these figures are out of parliament, and so at the margins, to the extent Rudd is relevant at all it’s in his departure.

  8. I think if making nuclear weapons was easy, a lot more nation states, not to say terrorists and criminal gangs, would have acquired some long ago.

  9. CTar1

    Re the article you linked from The Diplomat the other day .I wonder if the Russians might try to get something from the Americans not to sell them to China ?

  10. Someone smart enough to analyse all the weasel words.

    [So why did WA, the NT and Queensland apparently accept, albeit “in principle”?
    Because Pyne dropped the stipulation that the federal funding boost had to be matched by an increase by the states and territories.
    Under the original deals done by Labor, the states and territories had to contribute half the amount again provided by the Commonwealth.
    In other words, the Commonwealth paid for two-thirds of the total increase in education spending, while the states and territories forked out one-third of the funding.
    This is what Pyne meant when he boasted on Monday that he removed the “command and control” elements of the Gonski funding.
    It’s why Abbott and Pyne are promising only that no school now will be worse off as a result of “anything the Commonwealth has done”.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/tony-abbotts-gonski-backtrack-may-not-add-up-for-schools-20131202-2ylja.html#ixzz2mIAIAvPf

  11. Boer

    if Cathy McGowan runs again, and as an independent, that would make it a four cornered contest — should be interesting.

  12. [I actually wonder if we should quietly try to get nuclear weapons.

    Can you get them on ebay?]

    Perhaps do a deal with Kim Jong Un?

    North Korea may be one of the few Asian countries that Abbott, on present trends, fails to offend.

  13. [I think if making nuclear weapons was easy, a lot more nation states, not to say terrorists and criminal gangs, would have acquired some long ago.]
    Not easy for a bunch of mobsters, but not impossibly hard for an industrialised first world country.

    I mean, are you suggesting that North Korea and Iran have better scientific capabilities than we do? (Mind you, we don’t have a Minister for Science any more…)

  14. Coalition Tea Lady ‏@ItsBouquet 1m
    @Lynny_Pinnie @randlight Peta’s set up a cupboard for Tones (so he’s no trouble) Hockey’s got an abacus that goes to eleventy(tutor gave up)

    love this tweet

  15. [The other problem for Park is that Seoul would more or less disappear within 24 hours of a conventional regional war starting.]
    I read a really scary paper about the rate at which NK could deliver artillery shells to Seoul, and how quickly SK/USA could get rid of all known artillery installations.

    The conclusion was that the South would actually prevail, but with massive civilian casualties. And the X-factor would be a North Korean nuke being lobbed at Seoul.

  16. [North Korea may be one of the few Asian countries that Abbott, on present trends, fails to offend.
    ]

    He has it in him he just hasn’t tried yet.

  17. Jonathan Green ‏@GreenJ 57s

    the treasurer must really pack some punch in that cabinet room: graincorp, gonski chequebook

  18. [I have been on the receiving end of more abuse than I have dished out, including BB.

    I am among the mildest and most respectful of posters on PB.

    Having the sense to dump Gillard and re-install Rudd spared us that fate.

    I can’t be held responsible for the hobbies Puffy chooses to pursue.]

    Proof that Abbottism is contagious.

  19. Patrick Bateman @170 – agree not impossibly hard, but Iran and North Korea have been struggling for years, no doubt giving the project top priority in finance and resources, not being accountable for the cost and in the case of North Korea at least not caring if their people starved. All this with not much in the way of results. It can be done, as the case of Pakistan showed, and the physics is well known. Fortunately, the engineering must be very tricky and hugely expensive.

  20. Bw – There’s been lots of hints that they have a basic air-frame vulnerability.

    So the less they’re flown the better it is.

    The production line no longer operates.

  21. PB

    [1. I actually wonder if we should quietly try to get nuclear weapons.]

    I would be reasonably sure that Japan has the makings and that all it needs to do is to cobble them together.

    Given that we have locked our intell to the US, there is virtually no prospect of Australia doing anything at all ‘quietly’.

    [2. Australia must focus on highly specialised defensive capabilities which match our extremely hostile geography. I.e. we must have a military which specialises in operating in hostile deserts, far flung marine environments, etc.]

    I have always held the view that we should be giving free bus trips as graduate presents to all officer candidates of all potential overseas enemies. The bus would be all-wheel drive and would travel across Australia at roughly the join between the arid and pastoral areas. The only proviso would be that the passengers would have to find and/or buy in situ all food, fuel and water for the trip. The beauty of this concept is that the survivors would have suffered horribly and the rest would be dead. The point would be, of course, that large parts of Australia are empty because they are empty.

    [3. We might in due course have to look at some kind of European-style national service requirement. Not a national guard type thing, more like a “learn how to fire a gun and survive in the bush” type thing. It’s almost unbelievable to me that I would think something like that is a good idea (I am basically a sort of left-wing libertarian) but the harsh reality is that we are suddenly in a very dangerous part of the world with some very big, very pissed off countries starting to throw their weight around.]

    IMHO we should go for continental defence based on high-tech capacity to defend the sea-air gap. In terms of citizen army, Australia’s population is generally soft-ish city types who would not survive all that well in an alien environment – our bush, desert, rangelands and monsoon woodlands. Of course, having been fed SAS pap by spin doctors, most Aussies fail to realize that we are tops in obesity, for example.

    [My prevailing conclusion was that there are too many people fighting for wealth and power in a world which is a lot smaller than it was the last time two big superpowers existed.]

    There is a useful paradox in there somewhere. It is difficult to conceive of the Chinese, for example, mining our iron ore and coal more cheaply than we do. The royalties are tiny in comparison to cost/benefit considerations involved in a successful invasion.

  22. bemused:

    [Oh and BTW, I think confessions did throw in one of her snide remarks earlier today but I let it pass.]

    This is my third comment on PB today. The first was about Abbott’s media appearances, and the second was about JBishop commenting on sharks off WA’s coast. I haven’t mentioned other commenters, snidely or otherwise, and certainly have not talked about Kevin bloody Rudd!

    How about instead of constantly obsessing about me and always worrying about the things I say, you start focusing on your own behaviour and the way you interract with other commenters? Your behaviour is quite simply appalling, and today has been no exception.

  23. CTaR1

    ‘…a basic air-frame vulnerability.’

    Hmm… planes that are not allowed to fly are a bit like our subs being tied to wharves.

    We could do integrated war making.

  24. It’s why Abbott and Pyne are promising only that no school now will be worse off as a result of “anything the Commonwealth has done”.

    Hang on, if the Commonwealth has removed conditions on their funding, allowing the States to put in less and/or distribute the additional money how they see fit, and that ultimately results in some public schools getting less funding than they would have under the ALP model … that’s a result of the Commonwealth’s handling of this issue.

  25. jeffemu

    [Kylie Weston-Scheuber told the ACT Magistrates Court the case is an abuse of process because it violates the Bill of Rights and parliamentary privilege.

    She says it may even be illegal for the court to hear the case.

    Ms Weston-Scheuber says Slipper could be forced to reveal secret parliamentary business if he was to defend the charges.

    She told the court that the case revolved around whether Slipper was on parliamentary business while visiting the wineries.

    Ms Weston-Scheuber says for the court to decide that, it would need to hear evidence regarding Slipper’s conversations and phone calls.]

    The Court cannot ascertain if Slipper was on Parliamentary business, cos he may have been on secret squirrel stuff. 🙂

  26. Coalition Tea Lady ‏@ItsBouquet 1m
    @FuzzFord @randlight @Lynny_Pinnie Morrison is frustrating.When I ask “one lump or two?”,he declines to answer on grounds operational matter

    another great tweet, incredible tweets today

  27. Gonski’s gone: school funding review struck from record
    [Gonski has been expunged from the official record. Search for the name of the report on the Education Department website and you’ll get a reply asking whether you meant “lenskyi”.]

    Hard workers, these Liberal gnomes 😆

  28. confessions@182

    bemused:

    Oh and BTW, I think confessions did throw in one of her snide remarks earlier today but I let it pass.


    This is my third comment on PB today. The first was about Abbott’s media appearances, and the second was about JBishop commenting on sharks off WA’s coast. I haven’t mentioned other commenters, snidely or otherwise, and certainly have not talked about Kevin bloody Rudd!

    How about instead of constantly obsessing about me and always worrying about the things I say, you start focusing on your own behaviour and the way you interract with other commenters? Your behaviour is quite simply appalling, and today has been no exception.

    Oh dear.. confessions in full flight.
    A response to a direct challenge by Jackol. If it wasn’t today it must have been yesterday.

    Don’t delude you that I obsess about you. Almost anything else is more interesting.

  29. lizzie

    [Hard workers, these Liberal gnomes 😆 ]
    Their keyboards only have three keys. Controlling , Altering and Deleting.

  30. [ Oh dear.. confessions in full flight.
    A response to a direct challenge by Jackol. If it wasn’t today it must have been yesterday.

    Don’t delude you that I obsess about you. Almost anything else is more interesting. ]

    bemused, you are truly appalling. Even when picked up on an outright lie – as you have been twice today, your response is to bluster, blame and abuse.

    At the risk of incurring William’s wrath, I’m with the others here who believe you should simply be permanently banned.

    PB would be a much better blog without you.

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