Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

The first poll conducted since the government’s Gonski reversal finds, not unexpectedly, a sharp move to Labor.

The fortnightly Morgan poll, conducted from a sample of 2018 by face-to-face and SMS, provides further support for the recently recorded move against the Coalition, perhaps exacerbated by the Gonksi debacle. Labor is up no less than six points on the primary vote to 38.5%, with the Coalition down only a point to 41.5% off a below-par base from the previous poll. That leaves the Greens to fall 2.5% to 8.5%, with the Palmer United Party down 1.5% to 3.5% and others down one to 8%. This translates to a 51.5-48.5 lead to Labor on both respondent-allocated and 2013 election preferences.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

931 comments on “Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

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  2. Oh, they have been. The commentators neglected to mention that they were referring to fruit-fly generations, not the human ones.

  6. So if Pyne is calling for the motion to be about the ALP pulling $1.2B, hadn’t he better be REALLY sure that they did? If not he’s misleading parliament.

  8. The vision of the opposition casually standing there arguing with the speaker just did more damage to the credibility of the govt/speaker than any of Abbott’s hysterics in opposition.

  12. PB

    [The vision of the opposition casually standing there arguing with the speaker just did more damage to the credibility of the govt/speaker than any of Abbott’s hysterics in opposition.]

    It is hard to see Bishop lasting.

  18. [Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane 6m
    apparently Eric Abetz has buggered everything up in Senate #qt by saying that some schools will be worse off. Blames the states.]

  19. If the Feds really have just promised a wad of cash to WA, Queensland and the NT with no strings attached, and if Campbell Newman really just said “yeah, I’m going to put most of that extra cash into private schools”, that’s a complete travesty and mismanagement of funds.

    Worst. Government. Evah.

  20. bemused

    You won’t let it go, will you.
    You say you’re always polite. I strongly objected to your “turd-polishing” reference to JG yesterday.

  21. And bemused leaps in without provocation to start up the history wars.

    What a hypocrite – going to blame confessions for that one are you?

  22. I see that the Government has artfully ensured that the only woman in Cabinet is sitting within the scope of the camera while Pyne waxes purple.

    And no, I am not making an arcane reference to beauty and the beast.

    I am referring to the Coalition’s problem with women.

  23. “@KateEllisMP: hang on, so the “announcement” is that they might actually keep 1 funding commitment! i know it’s rare, but it gets a special presser now?!”

  25. lizzie@20

    bemused

    You won’t let it go, will you.
    You say you’re always polite. I strongly objected to your “turd-polishing” reference to JG yesterday.

    I can’t be held responsible for the hobbies Puffy chooses to pursue.

  29. Aha! I wondered whether the Opposition was were arbitraging the Senate and the House.

    Burke up now quoting Abetz in the Senate just now, ‘You might find that some schools are worse off…’

    Team Abbott disintegrates into a uncoordinated shambles under the pressure.

  30. Was that correct that I first heard as Burke just got up and mentioned Abetz in the other house.

    Was it Abbott who muttered “oh no what has he done now”

    It certainly sounded like Abbott.

  31. Jackol@21

    And bemused leaps in without provocation to start up the history wars.

    What a hypocrite – going to blame confessions for that one are you?

    You are simply being ridiculous.

    Most serious commentators acknowledge that re-installing Rudd saved 20 – 30 seats.

    Without that move, which the current LOTO supported, Labor would have been a rump of around 30.

  32. [@Sean/17
    lol idiot tism, that’s 2 polls, Nielsen and Morgan.]

    Actually it’s 1 Nielsen Rogue and 1 Morgan which is doing what Morgan always does and leaning to Labor bias

  37. g

    [“@deemadigan: Tony Burke: It takes a very special Liberal PM to have a bad interview on Bolt.’ Gotta pay that. #qt”]

    When those on Ms Bishop’s left enjoy a good hearty and unforced laugh you know that things are not going well for Abbott

  39. Bemused, I know you’re smart enough to know what I mean. There’s a consensus here that we don’t start up the Rudd/Gillard nonsense, and when you’re challenged on perpetuating it you always claim “but someone else started it with provocative comment X”.

    Well, there was no provocative comment this time, you just leapt in with a bit of Gillard hate.

    You’re a tedious hypocritical bore who thinks a lot of himself.

  41. The next polls by Neilsen and News Poll are going to be very interesting indeed.

    I think that this Gonski exercise has been the catalyst for the electorate to fully realise what they have installed.

    For Tone and his gang, it is all down hill from here.

  48. [The fortnightly Morgan poll, conducted from a sample of 2018 by face-to-face and SMS, provides further support for the recently recorded move against the Coalition, perhaps exacerbated by the Gonksi debacle.]

    What debacle? Debacles don’t happen under the reign of Tony the Terrific.

  50. [Summary: Development of new IT, operational and business support systems to support an FttN network would require a massive, expensive and risk-fraught IT development process, NBN Co warned the incoming minister in a confidential analysis.]
    “RISK-FRAUGHT”. Get that, Allbull?

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