Final score: 53.49-46.51 to Coalition

Definitive election results from the Australian Electoral Commission bring us the long-awaited national two-party preferred result, and details of minor party preference flows.

The Australian Electoral Commission finally lifted the lid on the completed federal election count yesterday, the detail we’ve all been waiting for being the final national two-party preferred result: 53.49-46.51 to the Coalition. That makes it the Coalition’s seventh best result since 1949, after 1966, 1975, 1977, 1955, 1958 and 1996, and better than any achieved since 1943 by Labor, whose modern high-water mark was Bob Hawke’s 53.23-46.77 victory in 1983. Labor nonetheless managed slender wins in the two-party vote race in Victoria (50.2%) and Tasmania (51.2%), with Western Australia remaining its worst state (41.72%).

No less interesting is the data on minor parties’ preference splits between Labor and the Coalition, confirming a significant increase in the share of preferences received by Labor compared with 2010. Labor’s share of Greens preferences was 83.03%, which compares with 80.78% in 2004, 79.69% in 2007 and 78.84% in 2010. My best guess here is that the Greens tended to lose votes from those driven by anti-major party sentiment, perhaps because of the closeness of their association with the government, leaving behind a more ideological voter base with a particular hostility to Tony Abbott.

Labor received 46.33% of Palmer United Party preferences, nearly identical to the overall “others” result of 46.69%. The latter was also the best for Labor since such figures were first published in 2004, recovering from a low of 41.74% in 2010. One consequence of this was that pollsters’ preference models based on 2010 election results overstated the Coalition on two-party preferred. Had preferences been as they were in 2010, the Coalition would have scored an extra 1% and a few more seats.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,313 comments on “Final score: 53.49-46.51 to Coalition”

Comments Page 47 of 47
1 46 47
  1. [Unprecedented stuff… Burke is virtually accusing Bishop of lying! Which she was!]

    Shorten up doing the same but in parliamentary language. 🙂

  2. Margin of error on that Morgan poll is 2.2%. So 95% chance that the ALP 2PP is in the range 49.3% to 53.7%. One swallow doesn’t make a Summer but maybe, just maybe we’ve passed peak Abbott.

  3. I don’ agree with ageism, but…

    [Kazonaki ‏@kazonis 2m
    If the gov want to keep people working past 70, they are going to need better examples than Bronnie. #qt]

  4. Sheez that Monkey is weak. Look at him, he sure dishes it out but can’t take it when it’s given back to him.

    He obviously fought some serious wimps in his uni days!

  5. [☵ Z☰N Digital ® ☲ ‏@z3n_digital 6m
    Campbell Newman has just said majority of extra funding announced by Abbott will be going towards private schools #auspol #qldpol told ya so]

Comments Page 47 of 47
1 46 47

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *