Final score: 53.49-46.51 to Coalition

Definitive election results from the Australian Electoral Commission bring us the long-awaited national two-party preferred result, and details of minor party preference flows.

The Australian Electoral Commission finally lifted the lid on the completed federal election count yesterday, the detail we’ve all been waiting for being the final national two-party preferred result: 53.49-46.51 to the Coalition. That makes it the Coalition’s seventh best result since 1949, after 1966, 1975, 1977, 1955, 1958 and 1996, and better than any achieved since 1943 by Labor, whose modern high-water mark was Bob Hawke’s 53.23-46.77 victory in 1983. Labor nonetheless managed slender wins in the two-party vote race in Victoria (50.2%) and Tasmania (51.2%), with Western Australia remaining its worst state (41.72%).

No less interesting is the data on minor parties’ preference splits between Labor and the Coalition, confirming a significant increase in the share of preferences received by Labor compared with 2010. Labor’s share of Greens preferences was 83.03%, which compares with 80.78% in 2004, 79.69% in 2007 and 78.84% in 2010. My best guess here is that the Greens tended to lose votes from those driven by anti-major party sentiment, perhaps because of the closeness of their association with the government, leaving behind a more ideological voter base with a particular hostility to Tony Abbott.

Labor received 46.33% of Palmer United Party preferences, nearly identical to the overall “others” result of 46.69%. The latter was also the best for Labor since such figures were first published in 2004, recovering from a low of 41.74% in 2010. One consequence of this was that pollsters’ preference models based on 2010 election results overstated the Coalition on two-party preferred. Had preferences been as they were in 2010, the Coalition would have scored an extra 1% and a few more seats.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,313 comments on “Final score: 53.49-46.51 to Coalition”

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  1. Pretty big sample for Morgan today.

    Morgan Poll – November 30/ December 1, 2013. 2,018 electors
    51.5% ALP / 48.5% TO ALP.

  2. If the Feds are lying about their complete capitulation they are just setting themselves up for even greater humiliation down the track.

    The States can smell the blood in the water.


    The L-NP primary vote is 41.5% (down 1%) now just ahead of the ALP primary vote at 38.5% (up 6%).

    Among the minor parties Greens support is 8.5% (down 2.5%), support for the Palmer United Party (PUP) is 3.5% (down 1.5%) and support for Independents/Others is 8% (down 1%). Support for PUP is still highest in Clive Palmer’s home State of Queensland (7%).


    People don’t like the Gonski backflip.

    Can we have election now please?

  4. What do the terms ‘fully costed’ and ‘fully funded’ mean in the context of a budget deficit?

    In essence, they are meaningless.

  5. Ellis not sounding as nervous as she usually does. Maybe she’s hitting her stride.

    Abbott doesn’t answer the question.

  6. Abbott is some kind of genius at this negotiation thing.

    He negotiated himself out of three years of government.

    He flagged to the Chinese that all they had to do was stall in order to put pressure on Abbott.

    He has arranged the Indonesian relationship so that the $4.5 billion in foreign aid cuts will not affect Indonesia at all – while simultaneously ensuring that the good will that might have come with the Indonesia aid has been defenestrated.

    Instead of cutting federal government funds to public schools he has put himself in a position where he puts more funds into public schools.

  7. [Ellis not sounding as nervous as she usually does. Maybe she’s hitting her stride.]

    Some people are better suited to opposition to government. She never looked comfortable as a minister.

  8. CTaR1
    The Nationals are big winners out of this – most country kids go to schools that will, as a result of the Abbott/Pyne cock up, get more funding.

  9. Hockey doubled up on the debt ceiling stuff today.

    He is sticking to his implied intention of doing the Tea Party thing and shutting down government if he does not get his way.

    Shorten is not going to back away.

    Net negotiating outcome: the Greens have Hockey by the short-and-curlies.

  10. @ 2269


    Same in the Senate where Marise is having an easy day of it along the same line.

    I trust that Shorten and his tactics team will learn and have a big Plan B in his back pocket.

  11. Andrew Bolt is running the country.

    Bolt tells Abbott that it’s better to keep an election promise on a bad policy than to break that promise.

  12. [margo kingston ‏@margokingston1 9m
    Pyne: ‘No school can be worse off because of anything the Commonwealth does.’ But he will let States reduce education funding!]

    [ Greg Jericho ‏@GrogsGamut 9m
    Surely the ALP can ask about specific aspects of the model that will test just how much the Govt is honouring the “unity ticket” pledge #qt]

    Still can’t trust them.

  13. [Kate Ellis ‏@KateEllisMP 34m
    False alarm, total broken promise- setting the states free to cut school funding as they please. Just the latest trick, more weasel words]

  14. Bat Bishop is a joke!

    She has to at least be fair with proper procedures.

    The place is a farce!

    I’d walk out for the next question.

  15. Shorten calls Abbott a liar in parliament…

    Shorten seeks leave to move a censure motion… is sat down.

    Bishop fired up. Makes a procedural mistake as Madame Speaker. Burke arguing the toss with Bishop!

    Unprecedented stuff… Burke is virtually accusing Bishop of lying! Which she was!

    She is now arguing the toss with those on her left!

    She announces that she will review the tape.

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