The Australian Electoral Commission finally lifted the lid on the completed federal election count yesterday, the detail we’ve all been waiting for being the final national two-party preferred result: 53.49-46.51 to the Coalition. That makes it the Coalition’s seventh best result since 1949, after 1966, 1975, 1977, 1955, 1958 and 1996, and better than any achieved since 1943 by Labor, whose modern high-water mark was Bob Hawke’s 53.23-46.77 victory in 1983. Labor nonetheless managed slender wins in the two-party vote race in Victoria (50.2%) and Tasmania (51.2%), with Western Australia remaining its worst state (41.72%).
No less interesting is the data on minor parties’ preference splits between Labor and the Coalition, confirming a significant increase in the share of preferences received by Labor compared with 2010. Labor’s share of Greens preferences was 83.03%, which compares with 80.78% in 2004, 79.69% in 2007 and 78.84% in 2010. My best guess here is that the Greens tended to lose votes from those driven by anti-major party sentiment, perhaps because of the closeness of their association with the government, leaving behind a more ideological voter base with a particular hostility to Tony Abbott.
Labor received 46.33% of Palmer United Party preferences, nearly identical to the overall others result of 46.69%. The latter was also the best for Labor since such figures were first published in 2004, recovering from a low of 41.74% in 2010. One consequence of this was that pollsters’ preference models based on 2010 election results overstated the Coalition on two-party preferred. Had preferences been as they were in 2010, the Coalition would have scored an extra 1% and a few more seats.
2,313 comments on “Final score: 53.49-46.51 to Coalition”
Promises kept only to non-gov & Ind schools.
Only what Pyne was saying before.
Pretty big sample for Morgan today.
Morgan Poll – November 30/ December 1, 2013. 2,018 electors
51.5% ALP / 48.5% TO ALP.
If the Feds are lying about their complete capitulation they are just setting themselves up for even greater humiliation down the track.
The States can smell the blood in the water.
Owens gets a yellow.
The L-NP primary vote is 41.5% (down 1%) now just ahead of the ALP primary vote at 38.5% (up 6%).
Among the minor parties Greens support is 8.5% (down 2.5%), support for the Palmer United Party (PUP) is 3.5% (down 1.5%) and support for Independents/Others is 8% (down 1%). Support for PUP is still highest in Clive Palmer’s home State of Queensland (7%).
People don’t like the Gonski backflip.
Can we have election now please?
What do the terms ‘fully costed’ and ‘fully funded’ mean in the context of a budget deficit?
In essence, they are meaningless.
Ellis not sounding as nervous as she usually does. Maybe she’s hitting her stride.
Abbott doesn’t answer the question.
The Nats seem to be sitting this out.
The Joint Party Room must be interesting.
It’s slogans, that’s all.
sloganeering the term is called.
Abbott is some kind of genius at this negotiation thing.
He negotiated himself out of three years of government.
He flagged to the Chinese that all they had to do was stall in order to put pressure on Abbott.
He has arranged the Indonesian relationship so that the $4.5 billion in foreign aid cuts will not affect Indonesia at all – while simultaneously ensuring that the good will that might have come with the Indonesia aid has been defenestrated.
Instead of cutting federal government funds to public schools he has put himself in a position where he puts more funds into public schools.
Uh oh, spaghetti-ohs…
[On a two-party preferred basis the ALP is 51.5%, up 2.5% since the Morgan Poll of November 16/17, 2013. L-NP support is 48.5%, down 2.5%.]
[Ellis not sounding as nervous as she usually does. Maybe she’s hitting her stride.]
Some people are better suited to opposition to government. She never looked comfortable as a minister.
The Nationals are big winners out of this – most country kids go to schools that will, as a result of the Abbott/Pyne cock up, get more funding.
In less positive news, the pirates are sure taking their time in uploading the latest Walking Dead episode.
When did Qld. WA and NT sign a MoU on education funding? Seems they have signed on to the Gonski reforms already.
That’s earlier poll, check my post at 2255
Bishop has just given Owens a second yellow card.
Bishop must have forgotten about the first yellow card.
The way Abbott is going an ETS will bbe delayed six years to keep a carbon tax in place
QT not going entirely according to script. Abbott’s announcement may well turn out to be bogus but it has given them a tactical edge today.
Hockey doubled up on the debt ceiling stuff today.
He is sticking to his implied intention of doing the Tea Party thing and shutting down government if he does not get his way.
Shorten is not going to back away.
Net negotiating outcome: the Greens have Hockey by the short-and-curlies.
Same in the Senate where Marise is having an easy day of it along the same line.
I trust that Shorten and his tactics team will learn and have a big Plan B in his back pocket.
Old Kero doing her best to remain partisan.
Bat Bishop trying to disallow another question.
What is Bishop doing trying to shield Abbott from questions??
So Abbott is giving States money with no agreements on how to spend it. The man is mad.
Abbott qualified his withdrawal and Madame Speaker allowed him so to do.
Another yellow. Not sure to whom.
Andrew Bolt is running the country.
Bolt tells Abbott that it’s better to keep an election promise on a bad policy than to break that promise.
[margo kingston @margokingston1 9m
Pyne: ‘No school can be worse off because of anything the Commonwealth does.’ But he will let States reduce education funding!]
[ Greg Jericho @GrogsGamut 9m
Surely the ALP can ask about specific aspects of the model that will test just how much the Govt is honouring the “unity ticket” pledge #qt]
Still can’t trust them.
Abbott, backflipping again on Gonski.
Abbott, the weakest Liberal Party leader of all time!
Speaker Bronnie is having another shocking day.
[Kate Ellis @KateEllisMP 34m
False alarm, total broken promise- setting the states free to cut school funding as they please. Just the latest trick, more weasel words]
IMHO, Bishop has actually left those on her left a lot of leeway in terms of interjections.
It’s too obvious that QLD and WA will not be spending the money on education.
My twitter followers are fast out of the blocks
I agree. She has no control over the House.
Someone should explain to the poodle that sounding hysterical when in government is not a good look.
Motion of no confidence in the Chair. NOW
Bronnie misleading the House??
Bat Bishop is a joke!
She has to at least be fair with proper procedures.
The place is a farce!
I’d walk out for the next question.
Shorten just took the piss out of the hopeless Speaker and got away with it.
“Hysterical” and florid is an even worse combo.
Shorten calls Abbott a liar in parliament…
Shorten seeks leave to move a censure motion… is sat down.
Bishop fired up. Makes a procedural mistake as Madame Speaker. Burke arguing the toss with Bishop!
Unprecedented stuff… Burke is virtually accusing Bishop of lying! Which she was!
She is now arguing the toss with those on her left!
She announces that she will review the tape.
Morrison has forgotten that he is now the gentle, reasonable Morrison.
Back to rant mode.
Oh Scoot up for Boats. Much Surprisiment. 🙁
Yep, motion of no confidence in the chair NOW
And when Bronny has reviewed the tape what will she do?
Morison still doesn’t realise he’s yesterdays news. People are more concerned about their kids education.
How many holes can liberals dig in their own grave on topic of the Boats?
I missed it. Was Bronnie upset about the word liar “worst language ever”? Joking, surely.