Final score: 53.49-46.51 to Coalition

Definitive election results from the Australian Electoral Commission bring us the long-awaited national two-party preferred result, and details of minor party preference flows.

The Australian Electoral Commission finally lifted the lid on the completed federal election count yesterday, the detail we’ve all been waiting for being the final national two-party preferred result: 53.49-46.51 to the Coalition. That makes it the Coalition’s seventh best result since 1949, after 1966, 1975, 1977, 1955, 1958 and 1996, and better than any achieved since 1943 by Labor, whose modern high-water mark was Bob Hawke’s 53.23-46.77 victory in 1983. Labor nonetheless managed slender wins in the two-party vote race in Victoria (50.2%) and Tasmania (51.2%), with Western Australia remaining its worst state (41.72%).

No less interesting is the data on minor parties’ preference splits between Labor and the Coalition, confirming a significant increase in the share of preferences received by Labor compared with 2010. Labor’s share of Greens preferences was 83.03%, which compares with 80.78% in 2004, 79.69% in 2007 and 78.84% in 2010. My best guess here is that the Greens tended to lose votes from those driven by anti-major party sentiment, perhaps because of the closeness of their association with the government, leaving behind a more ideological voter base with a particular hostility to Tony Abbott.

Labor received 46.33% of Palmer United Party preferences, nearly identical to the overall “others” result of 46.69%. The latter was also the best for Labor since such figures were first published in 2004, recovering from a low of 41.74% in 2010. One consequence of this was that pollsters’ preference models based on 2010 election results overstated the Coalition on two-party preferred. Had preferences been as they were in 2010, the Coalition would have scored an extra 1% and a few more seats.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,313 comments on “Final score: 53.49-46.51 to Coalition”

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  1. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    The Unravelling! Fraudband is now living up to its name.
    http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/government-it/confidential-briefing-nbn-unlikely-to-meet-coalitions-deadline-20131128-hv3tp.html
    From the Senate Committee hearing yesterday.
    http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/nov/28/telstra-network-held-together-plastic-bags
    You’re playing with fire, Prissy!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/former-panellists-unite-in-support-of-gonski-reforms-20131128-2yecj.html
    Mark Kenny thinks so, too.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/pynes-broken-promise-set-to-haunt-abbott-20131127-2ya8p.html
    Ned Manning on the same subject.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/how-gonski-kept-teachers-going-20131127-2ya8n.html
    A delightful play on words from Alan Moir.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    David Pope keeps up the pressure on Abbott.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Ron Tandberg with democracy Victorian style.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    A rather strange contribution today from David Rowe on business models.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  5. So the secrecy over the Blue Book assessments was to protect the foolish pride of Turnbull.

    So far, the Libs’ brave new policies have turned to mud. All the time supposedly spent on working out ‘better’ ways of doing Labor’s projects was actually spent thinking of weasel words and deception.

  6. [There was nothing radical about Gonski. The panel that came up with a plan to try to redress the appalling imbalance in education funding in this country was not made up of left- wing radicals. It was made up of people who care deeply about the future of education. People who were shocked to discover just how imbalanced funding for education had become. People like Katherine Greiner, who can see we need to act quickly before we live in two Australias: the ones with the advantage of a private school education and the second-class citizens who end up in a massively underfunded public education system.

    Conspiracy theorists will suggest that this is indicative of a plot to so devalue public education that it will cease to exist for all but the very needy. This is probably going too far but, make no mistake, public education is under threat. Sir Robert Menzies, the founding father of the Liberal Party and a man who championed public education, must be turning in his grave.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/how-gonski-kept-teachers-going-20131127-2ya8n.html#ixzz2lyPCcPjj

  8. Good Morning

    Senate Estimates has revealed what was known before the election to the technology sector but was buried by the MSM.

    Labor should have run harder on it. It was Mr Albanese biggest failure in years of politics.

  9. “@AndrewBGreene: Treasurer @JoeHockey expected to speak on Graincorp takeover bid at 8am Sydney news conference @BreakfastNews”

  11. Tingle
    [The bloody Canberra press gallery! We are so obsessed with leadership and polls and stuff and not at all interested in policy and the important things.

    This is a “well-known fact”. However, the strange thing over the past month or so is having been out talking to different groups of company directors, bank customers, economists and the like about the new government, the same question has inevitably surfaced: when will the Coalition bring Malcolm Turnbull back?]

    http://m.afr.com/p/opinion/new_government_but_no_change_in_u0uFcKpDqJd0l14Hp4RGYO

  13. [AshGhebranious
    Oh! Did I mention petrol? Yep. Up 15% as we import it all now we dont have any refineries. Aluminum up. Steel up. Construction up #auspol]

  15. The ABC now getting their wording right, referring to Christopher Pyne’s ‘decision to renege on teh Government’s commitment to the Gonski reforms’.

  17. How dumb is this comment from Abbott re trade ? He may as well tell China “Go on hit me . Bet ya can’t.”

    [Tony Abbott refuses to back down over China comments

    Tony Abbott has refused to take a backward step in a deepening diplomatic spat with Beijing, declaring “China trades with us because it is in China’s interest to trade with us”.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-refuses-to-back-down-over-china-comments-20131128-2ydw1.html#ixzz2lyTFDpDL

  20. guytaur

    But are the Coalition remorseful yet? I don’t think they realise what they’ve done.

    And I think you’re right about NBN failure. The message never got through and Malcolm is “so persuasive” 🙁

  21. Briefly
    Postal votes must be postmarked on of before election day to be valid. You can not vote knowing the result but you certainly can vote before the campaign has fully played out

  24. Morning bludgers

    Kezza, lynda and others from previous thread. If you happen to be around at some stage, all strength to you. 🙂

    Does anyone know what time the senate select committee is commencing today?

  29. In the NBN material, one of the main criticisms is that it is not suitable for larger businesses and expensive for small ones with special needs.

    Malcolm constantly pushed the idea that consumers didn’t need the big NBN. Why didn’t business say anything before the election? Because they wanted the Coalition back to feel “comfortable” again.

  31. Lizzie

    We expected the coalition to be this bad, but the chutzpah has been breathtaking.

    Btw i read elder’s lafest offering posted last night. I am not sure if i am interpreting the intent of his iast sentence correctly.

    [Labor, the Greens and other parties aren’t exactly cringing before the threat of a double dissolution election. Looks like blocking the carbon tax is all this lot really have; anything else they do will be an accident, for good

  35. Oakeshott @ 21 Not saying you’re wrong as that is what I would have expected, but you would think they would say that on the ECQ site. Instead it says “Your postal vote application is to be sent to the Returning Officer for your District or the Commission by 6:00pm on the Thursday before polling day. You will be sent a ballot paper and declaration envelope, which you must complete by 6:00pm on polling day. You must then return your vote in the envelope provided so that it is received by the Returning Officer no later than 6:00pm on the 10th day after polling day.”

  37. victoria

    We were wrong when wee thought Abbott would be a hopeless Oppo Leader, not realising how well he fiited the negative role. I don’t like to tempt fate by yelling “One Term Tony”, but for the sake of our future I’m hoping.

  38. Hockey says this govt has decided on 131 applications on foreign ownership.

    131 in a matter of months! Were these multinationals waiting for the Liberals to come in before applying, or have the applications been carried over from the previous administration?

  39. [“@latikambourke: Treasurer Joe Hockey REJECTS grain corp takeover bid. WOW.”]

    Did anyone really think they’d approve it with the Nationals arking up as they have?

  44. Grain Corp not to be sold.

    Hockey acknowledged a reduction in red tape of the past few years without acknowledging that it was Labor who did it.

  47. lizzie

    Abbott was effective as a negative opposition leader. It was obvious that it was all he was good at. It does not translate into good leadership for the country

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