The fortnightly Morgan poll, conducted from a sample of 2018 by face-to-face and SMS, provides further support for the recently recorded move against the Coalition, perhaps exacerbated by the Gonksi debacle. Labor is up no less than six points on the primary vote to 38.5%, with the Coalition down only a point to 41.5% off a below-par base from the previous poll. That leaves the Greens to fall 2.5% to 8.5%, with the Palmer United Party down 1.5% to 3.5% and others down one to 8%. This translates to a 51.5-48.5 lead to Labor on both respondent-allocated and 2013 election preferences.
@Sean, even if these polls skewed to Labor,
Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham 2m
#Morgan face-to-face/SMS Labor leads 51.5:48.5. After three polls this series has on average skewed to ALP by over 1.5 pts. #auspol
[Having the sense to dump Gillard and re-install Rudd spared us that fate.]
Having the sense to push Rudd out the door sees Labor with an election-winning lead.
See? Two can play that game 😉
I have this Morgan SMS/face series skewing ALP by 1.6 points after 3 polls. More evidence needed (eg this week’s might be because of genuine change or partly so) but I’m docking them 1.5 points in aggregation until further notice.
Also they’ve published a new set of 2013 election preferences http://www.roymorgan.com/morganpoll/federal-voting/2pp-voting-intention-recent-2010-2013 but the September one is clearly wrong; there is no way to get 50-50 on those figures given that Morgan rounds primaries to half a point.
J
[I, personally, find it very hard to believe that the Chinese leadership see anything but downside in military conflict at this time – they have a lot of eggs in the air at the moment, and that isn’t going to change anytime soon. A military conflict will be very destabilizing for China, and China is not in a position to withstand much destabilization over a few rocks in the ocean.
Following that logic, the Chinese are just bluffing and testing the waters to see if they could tip the status quo in their favour with little risk – the fact that the other countries in the region, and the US, are pushing back should be enough to call the Chinese bluff, and end this all with a few pointed comments and diplomatic sweeping-under-the-carpet.]
The assumptions here appears to be that:
(1) an accident will not happen
(2) that both sides will not keep doing things that incrementally reduce political wriggle room
(3) that either side is unwilling to risk starting a ‘limited’ shooting incident that then gets out of hand
(4) that neither side will mistake the short game for the long game
(5) that neither side harbours a hot-head element capable of triggering something without the sanction of the powers-to-be.
And if any, or all of this, seems unlikely, a Japanese fighter jock has already fired some shots.
Bill Shorten and Kate Ellis Presser
[http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/gonski-reversal-tony-abbott-backflips-puts-12b-into-schools-20131202-2yl79.html]
Triple somersault with pike!
[Not much in the media but it is the coalition that is restoring funding in our Armed services that labor had gutted.]
I have seen announcements of trying to increase spending to a % of GDP by some future date, but the Govt has not spent a cent extra on Defence yet.
There is justice, after all.
Hadley has lost his case against the fish and chip shop owner.
Good stuff!
“@SamCD01: LOTO – The Abbott Govt when they were in Opp made one promise – no school would be worse off under Coalition policies. #auspol”
[Let’s just stay out of it, tell them both that they’re our best friend in Asia, and think of all the iron ore we can sell both of them if it kicks off… what could go wrong?]
A couple of problems!
1. China regards us (correctly) as a regional centre, along with Japan and Korea, for US surveillance and logistics.
2. Rambo Abbott has already held a press conference wearing a US flag as a headband and proclaimed our absolute loyalty to the Americans.
3. We are basically a big empty country full of useful war materials…
PB – interesting. I think/hope the Chinese have their domestic politics sufficiently under control to avoid any ‘domestically politically untenable’ situation arising.
I know nationalist sentiment has been rising within China, and has been used by various players (Bo Xilai notoriously, recently), but a war would lead to economic collapse in China – their economy is still so highly dependent on exports and American bonds – and economic collapse will lead to the domestic instability that is the greatest fear of the Chinese leadership.
I guess we’ll see.
I certainly take your point about the inopportune timing of having our current dear leader at this critical point in time.
[Not much in the media but it is the coalition that is restoring funding in our Armed services that labor had gutted.]
We could increase our military funding 1000% and it wouldn’t make one iota of difference if a US/Japan v China war starts.
What will make a difference is careful diplomacy aimed at averting such an outcome.
“@SamCD01: Shorten – Everyone knew before the election that a majority of state/territories had a deal with the federal govt. #auspol”
rua #107
Joe hasn’t twigged yet that he’s the Treasurer.
Shorten: “Abbott has progressed from read my words to read my lips to read my mind.”
“@SamCD01: Shorten – Abbott has gone from read my lips to read my mind. #auspol”
Patrick Bateman@99
This and your previous post on the topic are extremely interesting.
I think what is needed is for the US and Japan to find a way out for China without them suffering too great a loss of face.
Any conflict with China at this time would certainly result in a defeat for China and that would create a bitter and angry China to deal with in the future. This is not a good scenario.
BW – yes, there are a lot of risks at the moment.
I’m (just) old enough to remember the dying days of the Cold War, and it is unnerving to be re-entering a period of finger-crossing that sense will prevail, and no fingers slip and hit buttons that shouldn’t be hit.
I’d still think that, barring terrible misunderstandings, this will be resolved without conflict. Maybe that’s only “balance of probabilities” which isn’t very comforting.
PB
[We could increase our military funding 1000% and it wouldn’t make one iota of difference if a US/Japan v China war starts.]
In general, I agree, but with one singificant exception.
If the war remains conventional, a big ‘if’, an Australian fleet of a dozen conventional submarines would make a substantial impact on middle east POL getting to China by way of the Indian Ocean.
Where’s Bill?
[A couple of problems! ]
Indeed 😐
“@COBrienBris: Labor has pre-selected former federal MP Yvette D’Ath for Recliffe by-election @QLDLabor @AnnastaciaMP @theqldpremier @abcnews”
“@AboutTheHouse: Member for Gellibrand .@TimWattsMP now giving his first speech in the House”
ST:
[Where’s Bill?]
On the telly, dropkick.
[Patrick Bateman, thanks for those comments. It’s because of the very serious situation in East Asia that Obama has been trying to extricate the US from the quagmire that is the politics of the Middle East, so that he can divert resources to the Pacific. Hence the deal with Iran, done over the head (most unusually for the US) of Israeli objections. I expect the US will also stop wasting its time trying to solve the Israel-Palestine issue, which has no solution.]
I hadn’t made that connection so clearly, but you’re dead right. I thought it was very noticeable that the Americans gave the Israelis short shrift in that deal, while simultaneously appearing to move away from taking a strong position on anything else happening in the region (like new settlements).
It said it all for me that only 60ish years after the Enola Gay made its little flight to Hiroshima the Japanese are eager to have American forces in Japan and the Americans are eager for the Japanese to significantly increase military spending and regional involvement.
Another simmering China/Japan issue while I was there was that Japan quite deliberately sent military resources into the Phillipines to help with the relief effort then made a big deal about how China had failed to help out to any significant degree.
Shorten is challenging the press to do their job and come up with the front page story that is there waiting for them.
[to solve the Israel-Palestine issue, which has no solution.]
Right on that bit.
It is nice to have a mitaru and all but unless NZ or PNG or a small pacific island attrmpts to invade it is largely a waste of money.
LU,
He’s been flying low under the radar for the last few weeks, glad he could make an appearance
Danny Lewis@102
I agree that the end of the Gillard/Rudd era is good for Labor.
But I think Rudd chose his time of departure and he might just have got it fairly right with the Libs well and truly on the slide.
I don’t want to take anything from Shorten and the Labor team, but they must surely be counting their blessings to have such a shambolic mob to oppose.
The two big tests for Coalition spending are:
(1) will it buy the flying brick?
(2) will it purchase 12 off-the-shelf boats direct from o/s, or, for the same money, frig around and build in Adelaide four bespoke wharf barnacles?
I am not optimistic.
Australia is an ally of the US under ANZUS. If the US is attacked, we are obliged to come to her assistance. Japan is also a US ally, and if Japan is attacked the US is obliged to come to her assistance (and ditto South Korea). But I don’t believe that obligates us to come to the assistance of the US if it comes to the assistance of Japan or South Korea. Given that we have very little ability to project military assets into the North East Asian theatre, I doubt the US would ask us to do so.
[Just got back from Japan – the situation with China is very scary, with China backing itself into a corner over the Senkaku Islands and Japan, Korea and the US determined not to allow China to set a dangerous precedent.]
The situation in this part of the world is incredibly complex, with (South) Korea as well as China having a long standing grievance towards Japan over past atrocities. An article today in the Korea Times suggests Korea is torn two ways:
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2013/12/113_147211.html
[Will President Park Geun-hye openly criticize China over its surprise announcement of an air defense identification zone (ADIZ)?
Park has made no public condemnation of Beijing despite the growing standoff between the United States and Japan on one side and China on the other.
The supposed dilemma for Park lies in the fact that she has carefully built a relationship with China’s leaders, so she may find it hard to run the risk of sending it back to square one. But the U.S. wants to marshal its allies against China in its “pivot” to Asia, now renamed “rebalance.”]
Like Korea, Australia faces a huge dilemma in responding to the crisis – can we trust Abbott to react in Australia’s long term interests? On recent experience, the answer is hardly “yes”.
PB
[Another simmering China/Japan issue while I was there was that Japan quite deliberately sent military resources into the Phillipines to help with the relief effort then made a big deal about how China had failed to help out to any significant degree.]
Not forgetting that the Philippines are conducting a public discussion about Subic/Clark being made re-available to the US and the Vietnamese doing joint naval exercises with the US.
Great to see prominent locals putting their support for action on climate change on the record —
[hat brings together an international sports star, an archdeacon, a wine guru and a financial CEO? Basketballer Lauren Jackson, Archdeacon Peter McLeod-Miller, John Brown of Brown Brothers and WAW Credit Union’s Peter Challis, together with fifty other eminent people from the Border region have signed a joint statement calling for all levels of government to immediately take stronger action on human-induced climate change.]
[…A lifetime of simple personal observations convinced John Brown, former CEO of Brown Brothers that the climate is warming. “I remember when Mt Buffalo was a reliable winter ski resort, local farm dams froze over and grapes were ripe for harvesting three weeks later. Of great concern to me is how humanity will cope when our fossil fuels are exhausted. Unless we move quickly to alternative, low emission energy production, future generations will not forgive us.”]
[But I don’t believe that obligates us to come to the assistance of the US if it comes to the assistance of Japan or South Korea. Given that we have very little ability to project military assets into the North East Asian theatre, I doubt the US would ask us to do so.]
It all has a nasty sort of First World War vibe to it – too many countries with too many interlocking defensive pacts. E.g. US-Korea, ANZUS, Japan-US (and don’t China and North Korea have some arrangements?).
I agree that we would not likely be asked to actually shoot at anyone, but I expect we would be asked to allow US forces to use our territory and infrastructure which would make us a legitimate target from a Chinese perspective.
All too horrible to think about.
citizen
The other problem for Park is whether she can trust the US.
@BW/130
Are we now selling bricks to other countries, in place of gold bullion?
PB
[I agree that we would not likely be asked to actually shoot at anyone, but I expect we would be asked to allow US forces to use our territory and infrastructure which would make us a legitimate target from a Chinese perspective.]
Abbott is Howard on roids. He would not need to be asked. He would offer Australian blood and treasure.
Appears the speaker of the Country has ruled Liar is out of Order,wonder what Ditch ” The Bastard “,would be ???
zoidlord
It was a reference to the JSF which has the flight characteristics, metaphorically, of a flying brick. As CTaR1 pointed out the other day, the chaps developing it now want to reduce the stealth requirements.
The JSF would then graduate to blindingly obvious flying brick.
“@sortius: .@macuser2323 funny thing about the term #Fraudband is that it came from the nationals to describe FTTN http://t.co/BbM5swS3mP #NBN #auspol”
Has any other member ever received two yellows in the same session?
Yes I know, I was just making fun of Howard days.
[If the war remains conventional, a big ‘if’, an Australian fleet of a dozen conventional submarines would make a substantial impact on middle east POL getting to China by way of the Indian Ocean.]
Actually, I agree.
I am not exactly a fan of military culture or warfare, but a couple of other thoughts I had about Australia’s position in light of the above were:
1. I actually wonder if we should quietly try to get nuclear weapons.
2. Australia must focus on highly specialised defensive capabilities which match our extremely hostile geography. I.e. we must have a military which specialises in operating in hostile deserts, far flung marine environments, etc.
3. We might in due course have to look at some kind of European-style national service requirement. Not a national guard type thing, more like a “learn how to fire a gun and survive in the bush” type thing. It’s almost unbelievable to me that I would think something like that is a good idea (I am basically a sort of left-wing libertarian) but the harsh reality is that we are suddenly in a very dangerous part of the world with some very big, very pissed off countries starting to throw their weight around.
My prevailing conclusion was that there are too many people fighting for wealth and power in a world which is a lot smaller than it was the last time two big superpowers existed.
NBN FTTN Review denied, another lie.
http://www.zdnet.com/au/nbn-strategic-review-wont-be-made-public-today-7000023803/
The Libs are all about double standards.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-ejected-from-the-house-in-unruly-question-time-20120820-24hvw.html
The shambolic farce of the LNPs education funding position continues http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/02/coalitions-second-gonski-u-turn-labor-model-to-be-largely-retained
[The JSF would then graduate to blindingly obvious flying brick.]
If Abbott is going to continue Howard’s (and to some extent, Rudd and Gillard’s) lap dog routine, the price should be a shiny new set of F-22As and a release from our JSF obligations.
A very reasonable request from a very staunch ally, especially given we are now hosting a reasonable garrison of imperial troops up north. And actually sensible from a US perspective, as it would effectively given them a new top of the line fighter squadron which someone else maintains and pays for.
[I actually wonder if we should quietly try to get nuclear weapons.]
Can you get them on ebay?
[Can you get them on ebay?]
No, but you can make them pretty easily with known technology and some materials which our country is full of.