BludgerTrack: 50.8-49.2 to Coalition

Powered mostly by Nielsen, but with other stronger polling for Labor also in the mix, the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate records its first significant shift since the election.

Supplemented with a bumper crop of new results, from Newspoll, Nielsen, ReachTEL and Essential Research, plus a brace of new state-level data, this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate records its first big move since the election. As shown on the sidebar, Labor is up nearly 2% on two-party preferred in just one week, driven by a significant increase in the their primary vote. The Nielsen poll of course has been a major contributor, but the 50.8-49.2 two-party split lands right on the ReachTEL result and isn’t far different from Newspoll once accounting for its preference distribution method that was probably slightly unflattering to Labor. On the seat projection, Labor gains five seats in Queensland on last week together with three in New South Wales, one in Victoria, two in Western Australia and one in the territories, which can only mean Solomon. The odd man out is South Australia, where Labor’s state-level data for this week was notably soft, although only small sample sizes were involved. Here Labor has actually gone from a projected gain of a seat to a projected loss.

Elsewhere around the site, there’s updates on Queensland’s two looming by-elections, at federal level in Griffith and state level in Redcliffe, and posts on new state polling in Victoria and Queensland. Further to which, two electoral reform news nuggets:

• A package of electoral reforms before the Queensland parliament may offer a litmus test for the federal government’s future plans, particularly after its position in the Senate strengthens in the middle of next year. Most pointedly, the bill contains a provision to require voter identification at the polling booth, having been foreshadowed by Liberal federal director Brian Loughnane’s post-election complaint that “you can’t go and hire a video without a card that requires a photo ID, but you can turn up to present to vote and just assert who you are”. This is perhaps the first entry into Australian politics of what has emerged as a flashpoint issue in the United States, where Republicans have invoked the ease with which malefactors can impersonate others in the absence of identity requirements, and Democrats have responded with complaints of “voter suppression laws” designed to create obstacles for the poor and minority groups in the name of a problem which appears barely to exist in practice.

Despite the Queensland government’s penchant for radicalism, the measures proposed in its bill come with a very substantial safety net, in that voters who find themselves unable to provide identification can lodge a signed declaration vote. The vote is later admitted to the count if election officials deem the vote to be bona fide, which they can presumably do by checking the signature against the voter’s enrolment form. The measure nonetheless promises to make life a lot more complicated on polling day, and to impose a further burden on the Electoral Commission as it conducts an already torturously cumbersome vote counting process. More on this from Peter Brent of Mumble, and a report on community radio current affairs program The Wire which features the redoubtable Graeme Orr.

Other measures in the Queensland bill include the abolition of caps on donations and campaign spending which the previous government introduced before the last election, setting the Newman government on a different course from the O’Farrell government which further tightened donation rules and spending caps in 2011. The bill likewise abolishes the increase in public funding which was introduced to compensate political parties for donation caps, and reinstates the old dollars-per-vote public funding model while setting the minimum vote threshold at 10% rather than the more familiar 4%. The threshold for disclosure of political donations, which Coalition governments would prefer be at least ten times the level favoured by Labor, will revert to the CPI-indexed $12,400 established at federal level by the Howard government, after the Bligh government slashed it to $1000. The bill has been referred to the parliament’s legal affairs and community safety committee, which is scheduled to report by February 24.

• As to what the new federal government might have planned, that should become clearer with the looming establishment of the new Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters and the commencement of its inquiry into the conduct of the recent election. The committee will consist of five government members including the chair, four opposition members including the deputy chair, and one from the Greens. Andrew Crook of Crikey reports the chair and deputy are likely to be Alex Hawke and Alan Griffin, while Lee Rhiannon will take the Greens’ position.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

760 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.8-49.2 to Coalition”

Comments Page 13 of 16
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  1. psephos

    [My mother can still sing the Dutch national anthem, because her school in Perth was full of Dutch refugee kids from NEI, and they used to sing both anthems every morning.]

    Interessant!

  5. Deblonay

    The Japan v China, what side should we be on? is a conundrum.

    In WW1 the Japanese were allies.

    I saw an interesting doco years ago, trying to explain why the Japs in WW2 treated our prisoners (and untold numbers of local inhabitants of their occupied lands) so badly in WW2 but did not treat others badly in WW1.

    I gather that the Japanese treated their own soldiers very badly also in WW2, but old blokes I spoke to said it was the Korean guards who were the real bastards to our prisoners.

    I guess it is all relative in war time.

  6. Thanks Ctr1 sorry if I got it wrong. It is day on day a trial. I work in mental health and I have a son who wants to die and I fear what will happen to him. he is a beautiful boy, smart and decent and open hearted, makes him vulnerable. I watch services being cut. Will the NDIS be honoured. Like Gonski unlikely. We make do with the resources we have…lots of well meaning professionals but not enough. He is alive and that is what we hold for now.

  8. Politics aside, I think it’s worth keeping the debt ceiling if only to ensure there’s a prominent public debate on debt whenever the ceiling needs to be raised. It keeps the pollies’ minds on keeping debt in check because there’s some political cost to any government that wants to raise it. There’s no downside to speak of in keeping it because the parliament is responsible enough to raise it as long as the government makes a good case. If ever it’s not responsible enough to do that we are in dire trouble anyway because it means either Labor or LNP has gone rogue.

  10. CTaR1

    I am not sure of the calibre or type but I suspect that they might have been something like 3.8 inch. They required the rotating of dials to calculate where the planes would be when the shells went bang. Dad was bombed by both the Japanese (in Java) and the US (on the Burma railroad).

    He reckoned that the Americans were much better at it than the Japanese.

  11. [Wayne Swan invented a debt ceiling so he could bust through it.

    What a dickhead]

    Well it is Hockey busting through like a drunken sailor on shore leave not Swanny so i agree with your last statement, it is your area of expertise afterall but clearly it is Hockey who deserves your description.

  13. [I thought the NBN was free?]

    I didn’t want to link to the article because it is news but is the triple wammy hitting the NBN Ziggy, Malcolm and Tony, that trios of fools and liars would wreck most businesses.

  14. lyndajcla

    [I work in mental health and I have a son who wants to die and I fear what will happen to him. ]

    A very difficult prospect when you understand more than most.

    Fingers crossed for him and you.

    R

    TC

  15. Psephos

    [I’m told that our own dear Zoomster is running for ALP pre-selection for the upper house seat of Northern Vic.]

    Yep. And with a chorus of hearty best wishes from many a Bludger.

  17. [I’m told that our own dear Zoomster is running for ALP pre-selection for the upper house seat of Northern Vic.]

    Correct. She confirmed it on twitter a couple of weeks ago.

  23. [Another frequent Bludger is also chasing preselection for a number of seats, but since my opinion of him would be both uncomradely and defamatory, I will say no more.]

    I’m not sure I’d let people know i post here if I was running for preselection.

  25. BW – “Rotating Dials”

    My Father was a ‘Predictor’ in an AA Group for two years at the start of WWII, I.e the pointer – another guy pulled the trigger!

  26. [Another frequent Bludger is also chasing preselection for a number of seats, but since my opinion of him would be both uncomradely and defamatory, I will say no more.]

    I think we know who this might be. 😆

  30. Thanks for kind thoughts. Sometimes I feel so alone and yet I can be here amongst friends and feel less alone when it is sometimes too hard to tell friends and family. There is so much judgement with mental illness. A lot of the time people think it is the fault of the family or weakness in the individual. There is blame and scrutiny and yet it can happen to anyone like diabetes or cancer…nobody blames these on weakness or poor parenting. More resources need to be invested in this area as it costs us all big time.

  32. …also, I completely understand the politics of wanting to restrict Hockey to $400 billion. He wants $500 because he’s swallowed the Friedman influenced Thatcher/Reagan handbook about government spending, so wants to restrict it, but doesn’t want to be seen to beg for incremental increases like Swan did.

    I also see the political reason for Bowen/Shorten resisting – if you genuinely believe that there is such a thing as means a government must live within, why give a free kick to an opponent.

    I’m just saying that Swan was bloody stupid to introduce it and, even though I’m certainly no LNP voter, I’d support removing it. There’s no shortage of other issues to have on, after all.

  33. [That’s Coalition + Labor v Greens]

    Ah the standard double standard.

    When the ALP agree with the LNP about something and the Greens disagree that is evidence that the ALP are a mature party.

    When the Greens agree with the LNP about something and the ALP disagree that of course is evidence that the Greens are a crypto-right party unconcerned about workers’ interests.

  34. “Nice. I make my first ever post at PollBludger (hi guys – have been lurking for a while) and you respond with idiotic abuse.”
    i’m with you marty,i’ve been reading bill mitchell for some time and although mmt is a little hard to get your head around at first,when the penny drops its a revelation and essential for anyone on the left to understand as it provides the ammunition to destroy the shonky edifice that is neo-conservatism.
    unfortunately for many on this site it exposes how far the alp and other leftist parties have been gulled by this worthless and destructive ideology.as soon as you hear some politician or heaven forbid a treasurer gibbering about the need to get back to surplus as if it’s the holy grail you feel like reaching for the gun.

  37. [Another frequent Bludger is also chasing preselection for a number of seats, but since my opinion of him would be both uncomradely and defamatory, I will say no more.]

    Yes, I’ve been very busy.

  38. lyndajcla@630

    Thanks for kind thoughts. Sometimes I feel so alone and yet I can be here amongst friends and feel less alone when it is sometimes too hard to tell friends and family. There is so much judgement with mental illness. A lot of the time people think it is the fault of the family or weakness in the individual. There is blame and scrutiny and yet it can happen to anyone like diabetes or cancer…nobody blames these on weakness or poor parenting. More resources need to be invested in this area as it costs us all big time.

    I am indeed sorry to read of your plight with your son.

    I have been down that path and it did not end well. I hope you have a positive outcome but my best advice is not to trust the Mental Health System.

    What state are you in and how old is your son?

  39. I thought Mod Lib should try read the article, perhaps this bit…

    “”Some fibre-to-the-premise products won’t be available under fibre to the node,” said Department of Communications deputy secretary of telecommunications, Ian Robinson.
    “There will be a revenue impact and that will have to be assessed.”

    If FTTN is deployed less money, simple.

  40. Psephos@612

    I’m told that our own dear Zoomster is running for ALP pre-selection for the upper house seat of Northern Vic.

    That was news on PB about 48 hours ago. Get with it!

  41. Education Ministers are meeting tomorrow for the first time since the coalition came to govt.

    Prediction: a face-saving outcome for Pyne after a private mauling by NSW in particular, and then Vic. They are Liberals after all.

  45. [If FTTN is deployed less money, simple.]

    Lots less money because:

    1. You have to pay for access to the copper wire
    2. You have to maintain the copper wire
    3. You forgo revenue and restrict business in Australia
    4. Billions of dollars and 15 years later you are going to have to do it properly and pay for fibre to replace the copper.

    It is absolute deliberate national vandalism and Abbott and Turnbull should be charged with criminal damage to the nations economy. How anyone could think they are good economically is beyond me they are dangerous fools.

  47. Andrew Elder in good form today …

    When Pyne mouthed off against Gonski earlier this year, Barry O’Farrell hauled him up to Sydney to show him what actual government and its needs are really like. The fact that neither man spoke about their encounter after the fact indicates that O’Farrell tried to knock some sense into Pyne, which he has clearly since lost. Nobody in NSW would choose Abbott over O’Farrell. Nobody in the Liberal Party wants the two to come to blows, but if they have to sacrifice the twerp from Adelaide to make peace do not doubt that he shall be sacrificed. Abbott is in the stronger position constitutionally but O’Farrell is the superior politician; if he has to run against Canberra then that’s what he’ll do, he will play grassroots populism better than Abbott will or can.

    http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2013/11/the-teachable-moment.html

  48. CT

    [ Yes, I’ve been very busy

    Go chop something else up then.]

    I’m hoping this preselection thing works out.

    I’ve had to join the Catholic Church and I’ve become a Shoppie.

    No more SSM for me!

  49. [I’m hoping this preselection thing works out.

    I’ve had to join the Catholic Church and I’ve become a Shoppie.

    No more SSM for me!]

    Good for you although abandoning all independent thought and adopting a posture of meek obedience must be tough for someone as educated as you?

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