Supplemented with a bumper crop of new results, from Newspoll, Nielsen, ReachTEL and Essential Research, plus a brace of new state-level data, this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate records its first big move since the election. As shown on the sidebar, Labor is up nearly 2% on two-party preferred in just one week, driven by a significant increase in the their primary vote. The Nielsen poll of course has been a major contributor, but the 50.8-49.2 two-party split lands right on the ReachTEL result and isn’t far different from Newspoll once accounting for its preference distribution method that was probably slightly unflattering to Labor. On the seat projection, Labor gains five seats in Queensland on last week together with three in New South Wales, one in Victoria, two in Western Australia and one in the territories, which can only mean Solomon. The odd man out is South Australia, where Labor’s state-level data for this week was notably soft, although only small sample sizes were involved. Here Labor has actually gone from a projected gain of a seat to a projected loss.
Elsewhere around the site, there’s updates on Queensland’s two looming by-elections, at federal level in Griffith and state level in Redcliffe, and posts on new state polling in Victoria and Queensland. Further to which, two electoral reform news nuggets:
• A package of electoral reforms before the Queensland parliament may offer a litmus test for the federal government’s future plans, particularly after its position in the Senate strengthens in the middle of next year. Most pointedly, the bill contains a provision to require voter identification at the polling booth, having been foreshadowed by Liberal federal director Brian Loughnane’s post-election complaint that “you can’t go and hire a video without a card that requires a photo ID, but you can turn up to present to vote and just assert who you are”. This is perhaps the first entry into Australian politics of what has emerged as a flashpoint issue in the United States, where Republicans have invoked the ease with which malefactors can impersonate others in the absence of identity requirements, and Democrats have responded with complaints of “voter suppression laws” designed to create obstacles for the poor and minority groups in the name of a problem which appears barely to exist in practice.
Despite the Queensland government’s penchant for radicalism, the measures proposed in its bill come with a very substantial safety net, in that voters who find themselves unable to provide identification can lodge a signed declaration vote. The vote is later admitted to the count if election officials deem the vote to be bona fide, which they can presumably do by checking the signature against the voter’s enrolment form. The measure nonetheless promises to make life a lot more complicated on polling day, and to impose a further burden on the Electoral Commission as it conducts an already torturously cumbersome vote counting process. More on this from Peter Brent of Mumble, and a report on community radio current affairs program The Wire which features the redoubtable Graeme Orr.
Other measures in the Queensland bill include the abolition of caps on donations and campaign spending which the previous government introduced before the last election, setting the Newman government on a different course from the O’Farrell government which further tightened donation rules and spending caps in 2011. The bill likewise abolishes the increase in public funding which was introduced to compensate political parties for donation caps, and reinstates the old dollars-per-vote public funding model while setting the minimum vote threshold at 10% rather than the more familiar 4%. The threshold for disclosure of political donations, which Coalition governments would prefer be at least ten times the level favoured by Labor, will revert to the CPI-indexed $12,400 established at federal level by the Howard government, after the Bligh government slashed it to $1000. The bill has been referred to the parliament’s legal affairs and community safety committee, which is scheduled to report by February 24.
• As to what the new federal government might have planned, that should become clearer with the looming establishment of the new Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters and the commencement of its inquiry into the conduct of the recent election. The committee will consist of five government members including the chair, four opposition members including the deputy chair, and one from the Greens. Andrew Crook of Crikey reports the chair and deputy are likely to be Alex Hawke and Alan Griffin, while Lee Rhiannon will take the Greens’ position.
Ocean Protector is still sailing back and forwards east- west
503112001 is still meandering around a small area outside Darwin
Cape St George is heading towards Darwin at around 6 knots – towing speed
Discovery 3 is heading towards Darwin at around 8 knots
Both these ships headed out of Darwin, appeared to meet up with 503…. then head back to Darwin.
Possibly picking up a boat in tow
[keeps hers discretely out of public view. ]
Keeping one’s balls discretely anywhere sounds quite painful. Discreetly perhaps? 🙂
[AussieAchmed
Posted Thursday, November 28, 2013 at 8:40 pm | PERMALINK
Ships have not all been “pulled back” to CI and Darwin.
There are ships still out there patrolling]
And then there’s the case of RS34, the tug boat.
This boat has disappeared, after doing its CI stint, or during its CI stint, once it was idenitified on PB.
RS34, also known as LOVE9, hasn’t been in port since November 12, although PBers were tracking it well into the next week near Christimas Island.
http://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/RS-34-NP-LOVE9-IMO-8955782-MMSI-567062400
And now it can’t be found. Perhaps it sank?
Interesting.
Aung Sung Syu Chi has never been called a misogynist, therefore she’s never really known the true political pain of being in opposition.
Nice. I make my first ever post at PollBludger (hi guys – have been lurking for a while) and you respond with idiotic abuse.
You stated that the only economists advocating for the abolition of the debt ceiling are Murdoch boosters and I gave you an example of one, far to the left of the Labor Party (who has called the Greens ‘Neoliberals on bikes’ in the past) who offers a cogent explanation as to why the debt ceiling is nonsensical.
And yes, I agree, it might be hard to explain to the average voter, seeing as they’ve been exposed to 30 years of the stupid argument that governments have credit cards or somesuch. The fact is, governments are not analogous to households, or businesses. If you run a government surplus, ceteris parabis the household sector must be in deficit, as happened in the Howard years.
Oh, and as for evidence, I offer Japan. They’ve had big deficits for decades and economists like Reinhart and Rogoff have been predicting the collapse of their country ooh… any day now, since 1996. They’re government bonds, however, still show small yields, meaning that international bond markets have no doubt as to Japans ability to meet its obligations. Why? Because they’ve never installed some idiotic, Gold Standard anachronism like a debt ceiling.
[Aung Sung Syu Chi]
Not familiar with the Burmese-English translation rules, but in the papers I’ve only seen Aung San Suu Kyi.
Connie
I will miss the entertainment the Greens provide when they finally rest in peace alongside the Democrats 😈
Pedantry hormone is elevated at present.
kezza2
Posted Thursday, November 28, 2013 at 8:48 pm | Permalink
AussieAchmed
Posted Thursday, November 28, 2013 at 8:40 pm | PERMALINK
Ships have not all been “pulled back” to CI and Darwin.
There are ships still out there patrolling
And then there’s the case of RS34, the tug boat.
This boat has disappeared, after doing its CI stint, or during its CI stint, once it was idenitified on PB.
—————————————————
Transponder turned off while towing?
Psephos
[Keeping one’s balls discretely anywhere sounds quite painful. Discreetly perhaps? ]
Yes. That sounds far preferable. Mind you, for all I know, she keeps them in a jar on the mantelpiece as a reminder of what she might become. 😉
triton:
Yes, you’re right about the media reports.
fess
[The slow-to-die uncle was a total selfish bastard, and in typical fashion throughout his life remained a burden to those around him right up until the end.]
You made just made me grin.
Know exactly what you’re talking about. Seems to be, in my anecdotal experience, an affliction of the male of the species. And they reckon Muslims suppress women!
Tom the first and best@550
The Munroe doctrine had a number of amendments which China may well use themselves –
[ The “Roosevelt Corollary”
Critics argued that the Corollary simply asserted U.S. domination in that area, essentially making them a “hemispheric policeman.]
and
[ The Clark Memorandum
…concluding that the United States need not invoke the Monroe Doctrine as a defense of its interventions in Latin America. It argued that the United States had a self-evident right of self-defense in the region]
Enough there for the Chinese to drive a tank through.
[Nice. I make my first ever post at PollBludger (hi guys – have been lurking for a while) and you respond with idiotic abuse.]
Its our form of welcome ceremony. 😛 😆
When my father did his national service in Holland in 1935 he was a trumpeter in the Bicycle Regiment regimental band.
triton
‘kyi’ it is. Thanks.
confessions, I quoted from the previous page. Fran started it. 🙂
Tony no self awareness. No house arrest for him. The only pain for him is self inflicted because he has no people skills. His only real pain probably an ingrown toenail or one of his daughter’s not getting
straight A’s in her HSC. First world problems but Tone understands the real pain of opposition. what a pussy.
Marty
Don’t be a hypocrite now!
Your first ever post here at PB and how did you start it?
With…”Rubbish” 😆
You do realise I’m sure that not all economists agree?
I’ve given my reasoning for the purposes of framing a debt ceiling.
I think the Libs and Labor are still in favour of allocating one.
When it comes to siding with the Coalition = Labor v the Greens, I know where I’d rather be standing!
*gotta go, oh Fran, stay loony 😈
MONROE ffs.
Marty
[Nice. I make my first ever post at PollBludger (hi guys – have been lurking for a while) and you respond with idiotic abuse.]
Just wait till you’be been here awhile. The aforesaid greeting will make you feel very loved.
Some say, HTFU.
I say, smarten up the footwork!
Sorry, I didn’t read your post, given as I’m taken up with porn at the moment. So, I’ll have to backtrack.
That’s Coalition + Labor v Greens @ 569
Perhaps someone could enlighten us as to how long Australia has had a debt ceiling?
9:04pm NEWS Digest Update 28/11 Nett_NEWS by Otiose94 Classified & Query_Able by Topic http://bit.ly/1aQcqOy
Centre:
The Greens are also hamstrung at the moment by an uncharismatic leader after prospering under Bob Brown’s leadership for the last 2 decades. Milne’s voice is so patronising and condescending that I can’t stand to listen to her speak for more than a minute or so at a time.
Something else that might be having a bit ofa bearing on what is happening across the real ditch:
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2013/11/28/rupiah-weakens-above-12000-us-dollar.html
CENTRE %%&
Re The Greens …you be waiting a long time
(today’s Neilson in Vic gave them 13% ( far from dead !) )
Psephos@570
Is that all you’ve got ffs.
[Fran started it.]
😆
I didn’t see Fran’s comment, but in my case I blame phonetics. Or phonics – I always get the two confused. 🙂
[Perhaps someone could enlighten us as to how long Australia has had a debt ceiling?
]
Wasn’t it a political stunt by Wayne Swan?
Wakefield
Posted Thursday, November 28, 2013 at 9:05 pm | Permalink
Perhaps someone could enlighten us as to how long Australia has had a debt ceiling?
==================================================
Nonetheless, the history of the debt ceiling makes fascinating reading. Until 2008, there was no ceiling – if the Government of the day decided it needed to borrow more, the amount of borrowing was included in the budget legislation. A debt ceiling was originally introduced by none other than Chris Bowen, the current shadow Treasurer, in June 2008, when he was Assistant Treasurer.
In reality, this is a non-issue in economic terms. Australia’s sovereign credit rating is not in question. In fact, Australia is one of only eight countries which currently hold a AAA credit rating (stable outlook, S&P/Moody’s). Our sovereign fiscal position is undeniably one of the strongest on the planet.
Bw
[e was a trumpeter in the Bicycle Regiment regimental band.]
He may have been more at home with the Japanese on their way south in Malaysia then.
Really 👿
[When my father did his national service in Holland in 1935 he was a trumpeter in the Bicycle Regiment regimental band.]
Where was he when de Duitsers arrived?
Anyway it is not a debt ceiling but a debt target.
Hockey needs reprogramming.
Kezza2 so sorry for all your losses. I have parents lost to cancer when my husband and most of my friends seem to have both or one at least alive. Today my 19 yo son was suicidal, ran off and police were involved to grab him and keep him safe from himself. When life is hard why make it harder…this government is making it harder for anyone they don’t view as winners. No compassion, no decency…no heart. And the people who voted for them have voted to screw themselves like turkeys for thanksgiving or Christmas. Awake slumbering Australia. Your country needs you alert…be alarmed
[Milne’s voice is so patronising and condescending that I can’t stand to listen to her speak for more than a minute or so at a time.]
She is trying to improve, she is speaking more slowly and with a relaxed smile, it is not quite natural yet, but I imagine Ms Milne will get there very soon. Her job is probably very difficult given the powerful personalities of all the Greens Senators.
I doubt Bandt could hold the party together like Milne or Brown.
Psephos
[Where was he when de Duitsers arrived?]
He was safe and sound in Bandoeng with his anti-aircraft artillary regiment and had a good war until Pearl Harbour, after which it went rapidly downhill.
Captured on 8 March 1943, he helped build the Burma Railway followed by construction work on Ubon Airfield.
CTaR1
[He may have been more at home with the Japanese on their way south in Malaysia then.]
Except the Japanese kept pedalling in the wrong direction.
Good eveneroonies Bludgerificators.
I saw Aung San Suu Kyi yesterday at the Opera House and it was Ace! 🙂
OK so we have worked out we survived for c108 years without a debt ceiling/target. How did we manage?
Talking about a debt target sounds a bit odd – the target should generally be less debt, but as much debt as necessary?
AA
[Our sovereign fiscal position is undeniably one of the strongest on the planet.]
On the basis of what we know, arguably one of the strongest on any plant.
Big Ted must be pissing himself laughing.
[Just one in four Victorians believe the Napthine government’s signature project, the east-west link, is more important than improving public transport.
Twelve months before the next state election, an Age/Nielsen poll of 1000 voters reveals just 23 per cent believe building the east-west link road tunnel is a bigger priority than improving public transport, which is the option favoured by 74 per cent of respondents.
The poll result will pile further pressure on the Coalition, which is struggling to communicate its policy agenda above the chaos of State Parliament.]
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victorian-public-has-strong-doubts-about-eastwest-link-20131128-2yclj.html#ixzz2lvyrKIqh
W
[Talking about a debt target sounds a bit odd – the target should generally be less debt, but as much debt as necessary?]
The Liberals mocked the Labor for treating the debt ceiling as a ‘target’.
Along comes Hockey and he wants to increase it by $200 billion.
What comes round goes round.
[OK so we have worked out we survived for c108 years without a debt ceiling/target. How did we manage?]
The State Premiers via the Loans Council approved Commonwealth borrowings.
[OK so we have worked out we survived for c108 years without a debt ceiling/target. How did we manage?
Talking about a debt target sounds a bit odd – the target should generally be less debt, but as much debt as necessary?]
It is a totally stupid and totally useless idea that does damage rather than any good. What our idiot politicians use it for is pure stupid political theatre that actually distracts from the important question at any given time and that is what debt is appropriate in those particular circumstances.
My mother can still sing the Dutch national anthem, because her school in Perth was full of Dutch refugee kids from NEI, and they used to sing both anthems every morning.
@ruawake/593
And Albo just put the Rail back on the Agenda, today.
lol.
lyndajcla
[Today ]
So sorry about this.
You must be stressed.
[ Tom the first and best@550 ]
The more you look, the more you find all the rat holes associated with the “MONROE” Doctrine {ffs}
[ The point of the Monroe Doctrine was to stop the European colonial powers importing their rivalries into Latin America, and was thus overall a good thing ]
Yeah but ‘good for who ?
[ President Polk attached Manifest Destiny to the Monroe Doctrine and used it to support expansion westward.
People do not tend to commonly think of western expansion as taking foreign lands, however, the land was not America’s and therefore by definition was foreign.
Polk was able to keep the Europeans out of America under the Monroe Doctrine while he could grab lands westward with less competition.
Westward expansion was interventionist not isolationist.]