Supplemented with a bumper crop of new results, from Newspoll, Nielsen, ReachTEL and Essential Research, plus a brace of new state-level data, this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate records its first big move since the election. As shown on the sidebar, Labor is up nearly 2% on two-party preferred in just one week, driven by a significant increase in the their primary vote. The Nielsen poll of course has been a major contributor, but the 50.8-49.2 two-party split lands right on the ReachTEL result and isn’t far different from Newspoll once accounting for its preference distribution method that was probably slightly unflattering to Labor. On the seat projection, Labor gains five seats in Queensland on last week together with three in New South Wales, one in Victoria, two in Western Australia and one in the territories, which can only mean Solomon. The odd man out is South Australia, where Labor’s state-level data for this week was notably soft, although only small sample sizes were involved. Here Labor has actually gone from a projected gain of a seat to a projected loss.
Elsewhere around the site, there’s updates on Queensland’s two looming by-elections, at federal level in Griffith and state level in Redcliffe, and posts on new state polling in Victoria and Queensland. Further to which, two electoral reform news nuggets:
• A package of electoral reforms before the Queensland parliament may offer a litmus test for the federal government’s future plans, particularly after its position in the Senate strengthens in the middle of next year. Most pointedly, the bill contains a provision to require voter identification at the polling booth, having been foreshadowed by Liberal federal director Brian Loughnane’s post-election complaint that “you can’t go and hire a video without a card that requires a photo ID, but you can turn up to present to vote and just assert who you are”. This is perhaps the first entry into Australian politics of what has emerged as a flashpoint issue in the United States, where Republicans have invoked the ease with which malefactors can impersonate others in the absence of identity requirements, and Democrats have responded with complaints of “voter suppression laws” designed to create obstacles for the poor and minority groups in the name of a problem which appears barely to exist in practice.
Despite the Queensland government’s penchant for radicalism, the measures proposed in its bill come with a very substantial safety net, in that voters who find themselves unable to provide identification can lodge a signed declaration vote. The vote is later admitted to the count if election officials deem the vote to be bona fide, which they can presumably do by checking the signature against the voter’s enrolment form. The measure nonetheless promises to make life a lot more complicated on polling day, and to impose a further burden on the Electoral Commission as it conducts an already torturously cumbersome vote counting process. More on this from Peter Brent of Mumble, and a report on community radio current affairs program The Wire which features the redoubtable Graeme Orr.
Other measures in the Queensland bill include the abolition of caps on donations and campaign spending which the previous government introduced before the last election, setting the Newman government on a different course from the O’Farrell government which further tightened donation rules and spending caps in 2011. The bill likewise abolishes the increase in public funding which was introduced to compensate political parties for donation caps, and reinstates the old dollars-per-vote public funding model while setting the minimum vote threshold at 10% rather than the more familiar 4%. The threshold for disclosure of political donations, which Coalition governments would prefer be at least ten times the level favoured by Labor, will revert to the CPI-indexed $12,400 established at federal level by the Howard government, after the Bligh government slashed it to $1000. The bill has been referred to the parliament’s legal affairs and community safety committee, which is scheduled to report by February 24.
• As to what the new federal government might have planned, that should become clearer with the looming establishment of the new Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters and the commencement of its inquiry into the conduct of the recent election. The committee will consist of five government members including the chair, four opposition members including the deputy chair, and one from the Greens. Andrew Crook of Crikey reports the chair and deputy are likely to be Alex Hawke and Alan Griffin, while Lee Rhiannon will take the Greens’ position.
lyndajcla @483 – I was astounded to hear Over the car radio this afternoon comparing his travails as Opposition Leader to those of Aung San Suu Kyi. Abbott is a complete wanker and a buffoon. A couple of key differences:
Tony Abbott didn’t spend 20 years in house arrest for his beliefs
Aung San Suu Kyi wasn’t given the opportunity to raise Suspensions of Standing orders or any other sorts of motions in parliament.
[If the U.S/Japan went to war with China… I often wonder what side the leftists in Australia would be on]
I’d be trying to find somewhere to hide if that happened.
[I liked the use of ‘dander’.]
English idiom is full of traps for foreign journalists.
About 1,100 days to the election, but who’s counting?
Eleven days ago it was the 2nd anniversary of my sister’s death. She was just 52.
The pain is still the same. I miss her so much.
But when I read, or see, articles such as this:
http://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/20057667/students-shocked-by-exam-question-on-rape/
I must admit I have murder in my heart.
My sister was 4-and-a-half when she was sexually assaulted. I saved her from the rape itself. But it didn’t matter. She never got over it.
I rescued her time and again through her teens and early 20s from a drug-addled existence.
Later, she became a force to be reckoned with in State Labor.
When I see her boss in parliament, I remember the good times.
She was clean, and had been for 25 years, when she died.
I have two boys. And have long wrestled with the easy access of porn on the web. And have counselled them on its addictiveness, let alone its un-reality.
Is it okay? I don’t think so.
And then when I read about Ian Watkins, a good looking bloke, from lostprophets, I despair.
Is baby rape better than raping a 4-year-old? Is it true that a baby won’t remember, whereas a 4-year-old will?
http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/music/lostprophets-ian-watkins-admits-baby-rape-attempts-20131127-2y8q3.html
That’s rhetorical. It doesn’t matter, I want to kill him. He’s lucky he doesn’t live near me. Or I would do so, with my bare hands.
[The Shire of Narrogin is considering covering the cost of four community projects should the Federal Government withdraw funds from a Regional Development Australia financial assistance grant applied for in June.]
I’m sure Narrogin ratepayers will be ecstatic at having to foot the bill. And this ‘review’ by the federal govt has also made Rick Wilson look somewhat foolish:
[Member for O’Connor Rick Wilson said he has advocated the funding for genuine small projects, and he considered the Shire of Narrogin’s application important.]
Will he speak up in the partyroom if the Cabinet doesn’t approve the project?
[There appears to be a number of Border Security boats starting to congregate out of Darwin]
Just wondering whether someone isn’t making mischief satellite phone calls?
Fran and Fredex
Just to enlighten you – you need to make the case that a debt ceiling is unnecessary.
Just in case you have both a bit slow in actually working that out for yourselves yet!
CTar1@450
Yes – Joyce seems very much to want taxpayers $$’s more than anything else. Isn’t that ‘strange’ 🙁
Incredible that it should even be considered.
Qantas domestic makes the majority of the profit and it until recently they lost money hand over fist on international.
The same question I asked when Joyce grounded the airline –
Why not just run domestic Plus the international routes that are profitable ?
Did Abbott have his father assassinated, his partner refused entry to see him while dying of cancer?
The man has no comprehension, its all about him. 🙁
Pyneocchio may be a crap Education minister, but he sure can talk!.
Pity he only talks crap. Can’t stand the guy. And in spite of his verbal diarrhoea, as a poster quoted yesterday, he won’t trouble historians who compile lists of great political speeches. His contribution to the debate on education in Opposition was minuscule. He seemed totally uninterested. In Government, his contribution will be negative. Doesn’t anyone have some dirt on this guy they can spill. It would be poetic justice.
fredex
[I was going to jump on centre’s silly comments but gave it a miss on the DFTT principle. Glad you tried to educate him tho’.]
Regrettably, once some people get to a certain age, like dogs, they become very hard to educate. Their ability to make good generalisations and to distinguish for salience declines.
Sadly, I doubt Centre will ever learn a new thing, and given that what he has learned is largely nonsense, one can’t but feel sorry for him/her. If Centre weren’t so ostentatiously malign, I’d probably waste more of my time responding to him. People like Centre and Sean and that COmpact Crank (who seems to have vanished now that we have RT) prompted me to decide long ago that I should put a cap on the time I spend responding to really stupid people on the internet.
[409
Psephos
There is no doubt that increased US involvement, which has a explicit goal of containing China, is inducing Chinese reaction and, in turn, stimulating calls for further US involvement. This is wholly deleterious and unnecessary.
US policy may well have an implicit goal of containing China, but it’s certainly not explicit – Obama has never said “my goal is to contain China.” That’s what “explicit” means.]
Call it what you will. The US has explicitly adopted policies aimed at deploying its forces in SE Asia and Australia for the purpose of “managing China-US competition”.
As you would recognise, this is code for using US military presence (as well as diplomatic, cultural, political and economic ties) for the purpose of inhibiting China’s influence in the region. This has been at least semi-officially depicted as relating to the descaling of US deployments elsewhere in Asia. In other words, we are the new locus for the forward deployment of US forces in East Asia.
In the case of the tensions in the disputed territories in the seas around China, the important issue is to distinguish cause from effect. The reactions of China have varied from the imposition of economic retaliation against its regional trading partners to naval posturing and threats of military engagement. It is (at least) arguable that China’s reactions have been ill-conceived and that these responses have had the effect of validating US encroachment. That is, they have had the opposite effect from that intended by China, but have suited US objectives very well.
In any case, there is certainly a presumption that even in its own region Chinese competition with the US is not acceptable and, naturally, should be challenged without hesitation. This underlies your assertion…
[China is…seeking hegemony over its region in order to maintain itself in power. That ambition is not legitimate and should be resisted. Every state in the region except N Korea and Cambodia wants the US to help them resist Chinese hegemony.]
There is scant evidence that China has been seeking hegemonic power. There are, rather, specific examples of the US actively seeking to apply its own hegemonic privileges. These obviously include the deployment of its military forces and securing the alignment of regional allies with US goals.
We should be extremely wary about being drawn into this caper, which is not calculated to advantage our interests, but rather is drawn to suit the monopoly power of the US.
kezza:
52 is very young to die. Was her death sudden?
Chris Pyne at school would have been “Johnny No Friends” . His dobber teacher’s pet nature just oozes from him.
[I was astounded to hear Over the car radio this afternoon comparing his travails as Opposition Leader to those of Aung San Suu Kyi.]
Surely not! 😮
Is Abbott totally without self awareness?
Psephos@434
The Monroe doctrine went far beyond its original intent though did it –
[ The intent and impact of the Monroe Doctrine persisted with only minor variations for more than a century. Its primary objective was to free the newly independent colonies of Latin America from European intervention and avoid situations which could make the New World a battleground for the Old World powers.
The doctrine asserted that the New World and the Old World were to remain distinctly separate spheres of influence, for they were composed of entirely separate and independent nations.
However, the policy became deeply resented by Latin American nations for its overt interventionism and perceived imperialism.]
Beyond the above, no matter what you or I say, if the Chinese decide to invoke a similar doctrine it will happen
Hey Fran
You want to debate me – go for it.
Your post at 512 is like usual full of insult and abuse.
Now, I’m going to put you away 😉
Let me give you the 4 posts that set the framework for the debate.
WTF?
[Victoria police have apologised to the family of Jill Meagher after a crime scene photo of the murdered ABC worker was shown at a fundraising event.
Detective senior sergeant Ron Iddles, a homicide veteran with 30 years’ experience in the force, showed several graphic photos of Meagher’s body at a prostate cancer fundraising lunch in Bendigo last Friday.]
dave
Qantas/Emigrates ‘Strategic Alliance’ is nothing more than Emigrates wanting Landing Rights/’Slots’ at Heathrow.
Crawley/Gatwick is ‘inconvenient’ for most of theirs.
Fran and Fredex / twiddledum and twiddledee
Posts 202, 304, 421 and 431
Our response to any China/Japan conflict
________________
Malcolm Fraser has several times warned against our finding ourselves in a position of conflict with China …,especially when …as in the present situation the adversary is Japan
I’m an of an older generation of Australians, with family memories of WW2..and though I have been to Japan and found it interesting.. I think it would widely apply that the public here would not have a bar of any alliance which would see us an ally of Japan…run as it still,is many men who beneath the skin are still the old rabid.. still nationalistic racists they really are.
Many here would rather like to watch and see the Japs taught a harsh lesson by China
In Oz who would fight and die for the Japs ? …the very suggestion is a joke in poor taste.. and would be met with immese public anger because underneath it all lies a deep dislike of the Japs by many here in Oz
The old hatred of the Japs lurking beneath the surface here ould make any Govt that sought to aid them a target for fdeep public anger..and easy to arouse.the public to opposition on a large scale…
[There is scant evidence that China has been seeking hegemonic power. There are, rather, specific examples of the US actively seeking to apply its own hegemonic privileges. These obviously include the deployment of its military forces and securing the alignment of regional allies with US goals.]
Sorry, Briefly, I just don’t accept this view that the US and China are morally equivalent, and that all we are seeing is 19th century-style great power rivalry. Chinese hegemony is bad because China is a Communist dictatorship, and the Chinese Communist Party uses foreign policy to cement its own grip on power. The US is a democracy and while I don’t think the US should seek hegemony in East Asia, US hegemony is vastly preferable to Chinese hegemony. That’s why, as I’ve said several times now, all our Asian friends WANT an increased US presence in the region, and WANT us to help facilitate that. Having the US Marines in Darwin, for example, is the most popular thing Australia has done in the region for years, because it shows a commitment to the security of our neighbours.
Centre
You do have a talent for antagonising those left of Centre.
CTar1@520
Yes, plus a desperate Qantas.
Like I have always said Fran, when it comes to this $ the Greens should shut up, do as their told and ZIP 😆
[Just to enlighten you – you need to make the case that a debt ceiling is unnecessary.
]
No you don’t the thing speaks for itself.
[Chris Pyne at school would have been “Johnny No Friends” . His dobber teacher’s pet nature just oozes from him.]
How anyone at all can take him seriously, is beyond me.
He is the classic School Fag, the little crawler who gets to run messages between the higher-up bullies.
centre at #500
Marty at #304 has already exposed your silliness and you have continued on without learning anything.
I would suggest you take Marty’s advice and go to the link he provided and come back if and when you understand the issue.
In the meantime I’ll be generous and give you another respectable conservative source that discusses the issue of national debt and shows why we in Oz are badly served by what masquerades for economic debate in our media.
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/johncassidy/2013/04/the-rogoff-and-reinhart-controversy-a-summing-up.html
Ps Bill Mitchell is no Greens supporter, search his blog and you will find that he strongly criticises them for their economic ideology.
Mind you, he also criticises the Labor Party even more strongly and the COALition aren’t in the race at all at all.
There appears to be a number of Border Security boats starting to congregate out of Darwin
Tony Abbott’s version of the Maginot Line.
fess
Sick one day, given four months to live the next.
Seemingly out of the blue, although our family appears to be riddled with the catching of cancers of various sorts.
I’ve had it with cancer. Both my parents, my brother, my sister, all of dad’s family bar one (although my aunt is in remission) have all died in the past 10 years.
I rang to make an appointment with my chiropractor a couple of days ago, and she was in tears. Her 32-year-old daughter had just been diagnosed with bowel cancer.
I froze. Expressed my consolations, although I feel like I’m becoming defensively callous about it now.
But, in my sister’s case, I’m probably projecting my anger at her early death on the perpetrators of child rape. And I’m levelling the seeming prevalence at the easy access of porn.
Maybe I’m wrong. And I’m just angry.
The latest stupidity from Abbott:
Apparently he empathises with Aung Sung Syu Chi …
Apparently he really gets the frustration and exhiliration of being in opposition ….
What can one do but shake one’s head in astonishment at the insistent unself-conscious stupidity of this man? Abbott may just make or resident wepaons-grade idiot appear to be within the normal range of cognitive accomplishment.
Hearing Abbott’s lame schmooze, I recalled the words of Robbie Burns:
[O wad some Power the giftie gie us. To see oursels as ithers see us! It wad frae mony a blunder free us]
Diogs they take something you say out of context then call you an idiot!
Debt ceilings serve the purpose purely as a control mechanism on government spending.
So those that have agreed to set them in place, such as the Libs and Labor and many other nations are now idiots because the Greens don’t think they’re necessary!
I think Fran and Fredex are the ones being silly here!
Fredex
No he did not!
I replied to his post at 421 and 431.
Add something new or get nicked!
Boats pulled back to Christmas Island and Darwin.
Tisme approves. Maybe they are reading my posts afterall.
oops weapons grade
@Sean/535
Boat Policy still fails.
And whilst laboriously 2 finger typing #529 above I see centre has jumped in several times with more silliness.
But Fran has made pertinent comment at #512
Actually centre reminds me, in a weird sorta way, of Reinhart and Ragoff.
There’s a hint centre, check them out.
Ducky
[Pynocchio did the talkover to reduce the potential inquisition. I have no trouble with what Leigh did. ]
I thought she let him off lightly on years 2-4. She pressed him once but then moved on when I thought she could have gone in for the kill after his answer. I’m a Leigh fan. I’d rather not criticize her at all.
[You do have a talent for antagonising those left of Centre.]
Like Max used to say…”and loving it” 😀
Fran
I think you are missing the point almost completely.
Aung Sung Syu Chi should consider herself fortunate that she has had life experiences just like Abbott. All she needs is a bit of empathy to understand the poor fella.
deb
[I’m an of an older generation of Australians, with family memories of WW2]
I understand this. My father and his brother 5 year vets of the 2nd AIF. As well as a slew of my mothers brothers as well.
Strange situations.
Psephos @ 523, I’m not arguing moral equivalence.
The initial reaction of Indonesia and the Philippines to Obama’s policy – and the rotation of Marines through the NT – was not positive. Rather, they expressed surprise and fear that it would lead to militarisation of the region.
Maybe they’ve changed their tune. I haven’t seen anything either way (though I haven’t been looking either, if it comes to that).
In any case, from China’s viewpoint, they are now confronted by US clients all along their southern and eastern frontiers from Myanmar in the South West to Korea and Japan in the North East, and all through the SE Asian peninsula and archipelagos. This is overtly intended to inhibit them. They are – unsurprisingly – not impressed, especially as this client list is expressly intended to provide host territory for US ground, naval and airborne forces.
This is a highly significant redeployment of power that is inconsistent with the respective economic status of China and the US in the region. It is anomalous from that point of view.
Ships have not all been “pulled back” to CI and Darwin.
There are ships still out there patrolling.
kezza:
In the last 2 years I’ve lost 2 uncles to lung cancer. One went relatively quickly (barely 3 months from diagnosis to death), and the other was dragged out over a few years, with him getting progressively worse.
The slow-to-die uncle was a total selfish bastard, and in typical fashion throughout his life remained a burden to those around him right up until the end.
Sean Tisme
[Tisme approves]
Because ? Can nae do tow backs when the boats turn up in Flying Fish Cove
Fredex
Fine!
If readers are interested they can refer to the original posts in question: 202, 304, 421 and 431 and determine first hand your own (+ Fran) stupidity.
I’m not responding unless you can actually add a bit of substance to your argument.
You’re a yawn!
BW
[Aung Sung Syu Chi should consider herself fortunate that she has had life experiences just like Abbott. All she needs is a bit of empathy to understand the poor fella.]
Yes. There was that story, little known outside of Burma, in which a wall at Rangoon University attacked her fist while shoving a political rival in her face.
And Abbott, for his part, spent long years under house arrest after being ousted post-election in a coup while trying to fight the good fight.
The similarities are striking, and not merely in a physical sense. Both of them clearly have balls, though Ms Syu Kyi, demure thing that she is, keeps hers discretely out of public view.
😉
Centre:
With Labor now in opposition, and with the Greens continuing to lose voter support with each election they contest, they will likely become irrelevant in the not-too-distant future.
444
The American actions in Europe (And predominantly culturally and ethnically anglophone places such as Australia) have been far better than their actions in other parts of their sphere of influence. The traditional Munro Doctrine area of the Americas (with the exception of Canada and to a lesser extent Mexico) has suffered greatly when the USA has behaved badly towards them. South America has in the past couple of decades largely been able to escape that, with all their new wealth and power and America`s other concerns, Central America not quite so much.