BludgerTrack: 50.8-49.2 to Coalition

Powered mostly by Nielsen, but with other stronger polling for Labor also in the mix, the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate records its first significant shift since the election.

Supplemented with a bumper crop of new results, from Newspoll, Nielsen, ReachTEL and Essential Research, plus a brace of new state-level data, this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate records its first big move since the election. As shown on the sidebar, Labor is up nearly 2% on two-party preferred in just one week, driven by a significant increase in the their primary vote. The Nielsen poll of course has been a major contributor, but the 50.8-49.2 two-party split lands right on the ReachTEL result and isn’t far different from Newspoll once accounting for its preference distribution method that was probably slightly unflattering to Labor. On the seat projection, Labor gains five seats in Queensland on last week together with three in New South Wales, one in Victoria, two in Western Australia and one in the territories, which can only mean Solomon. The odd man out is South Australia, where Labor’s state-level data for this week was notably soft, although only small sample sizes were involved. Here Labor has actually gone from a projected gain of a seat to a projected loss.

Elsewhere around the site, there’s updates on Queensland’s two looming by-elections, at federal level in Griffith and state level in Redcliffe, and posts on new state polling in Victoria and Queensland. Further to which, two electoral reform news nuggets:

• A package of electoral reforms before the Queensland parliament may offer a litmus test for the federal government’s future plans, particularly after its position in the Senate strengthens in the middle of next year. Most pointedly, the bill contains a provision to require voter identification at the polling booth, having been foreshadowed by Liberal federal director Brian Loughnane’s post-election complaint that “you can’t go and hire a video without a card that requires a photo ID, but you can turn up to present to vote and just assert who you are”. This is perhaps the first entry into Australian politics of what has emerged as a flashpoint issue in the United States, where Republicans have invoked the ease with which malefactors can impersonate others in the absence of identity requirements, and Democrats have responded with complaints of “voter suppression laws” designed to create obstacles for the poor and minority groups in the name of a problem which appears barely to exist in practice.

Despite the Queensland government’s penchant for radicalism, the measures proposed in its bill come with a very substantial safety net, in that voters who find themselves unable to provide identification can lodge a signed declaration vote. The vote is later admitted to the count if election officials deem the vote to be bona fide, which they can presumably do by checking the signature against the voter’s enrolment form. The measure nonetheless promises to make life a lot more complicated on polling day, and to impose a further burden on the Electoral Commission as it conducts an already torturously cumbersome vote counting process. More on this from Peter Brent of Mumble, and a report on community radio current affairs program The Wire which features the redoubtable Graeme Orr.

Other measures in the Queensland bill include the abolition of caps on donations and campaign spending which the previous government introduced before the last election, setting the Newman government on a different course from the O’Farrell government which further tightened donation rules and spending caps in 2011. The bill likewise abolishes the increase in public funding which was introduced to compensate political parties for donation caps, and reinstates the old dollars-per-vote public funding model while setting the minimum vote threshold at 10% rather than the more familiar 4%. The threshold for disclosure of political donations, which Coalition governments would prefer be at least ten times the level favoured by Labor, will revert to the CPI-indexed $12,400 established at federal level by the Howard government, after the Bligh government slashed it to $1000. The bill has been referred to the parliament’s legal affairs and community safety committee, which is scheduled to report by February 24.

• As to what the new federal government might have planned, that should become clearer with the looming establishment of the new Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters and the commencement of its inquiry into the conduct of the recent election. The committee will consist of five government members including the chair, four opposition members including the deputy chair, and one from the Greens. Andrew Crook of Crikey reports the chair and deputy are likely to be Alex Hawke and Alan Griffin, while Lee Rhiannon will take the Greens’ position.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

760 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.8-49.2 to Coalition”

Comments Page 14 of 16
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  5. Bemused. We live in Victoria. My son has just recently turned 19. Has been emotionally distressed and only partially functioning for 4 years now. I am fortunate to have a loving husband and good people around me though fewer over the years as I withdraw from life socially while functioning well at work. In my professional life working with my mental health clients I take it in my stride. At home is another thing. Not for myself but for others carers need to be valued and supported

  6. WWP

    [Good for you although abandoning all independent thought and adopting a posture of meek obedience must be tough for someone as educated as you?]

    Not at all. Dear Leader has shown me the path.

  7. [Joe Hockey willing to ditch debt ceiling to break deadlock]

    [http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/joe-hockey-willing-to-ditch-debt-ceiling-to-break-deadlock-20131128-2yc37.html#ixzz2lwEcmOn5]

    So, i thought someone once said there would be NO deals with minor parties (except the Nats of course)????

    Would that be a lie then, or perhaps a surprise, or have the media misunderstood………again? 🙂

  9. I’m running for a preselection Don Farrell is interested in and I keep getting free shovels left on my front garden.

    I can only assume someone is telling me that the electorate loves passionate gardeners. 😀

  11. lyndajcla@655

    Bemused. We live in Victoria. My son has just recently turned 19. Has been emotionally distressed and only partially functioning for 4 years now. I am fortunate to have a loving husband and good people around me though fewer over the years as I withdraw from life socially while functioning well at work. In my professional life working with my mental health clients I take it in my stride. At home is another thing. Not for myself but for others carers need to be valued and supported

    You disclosed that you live in Indi and facilities are not as good in country areas.

    But even in Melbourne the Mental Health system is a sick joke.

    This is not the place to discuss such things so I OK William to pass on my contact details if you want to get in touch.

  12. Lyndajcla caring for a mentally unwell family member is the most difficult challenge I have faced in my life. But such is our love for family, it’s also the fondest, most affectionate, deeply felt memory. Hang in there.

  13. [So, i thought someone once said there would be NO deals with minor parties]

    They said they wouldn’t form a Coalition with minor parties… but no surprise you are making shit up yet again.

  17. lyndajcla

    Thanks for your thoughts to me.

    Now, about you and your child. I feel so much for you.

    One of my son’s friends just dropped round. He was going so well until he hit 17 years of age. He’s still trying to pinpoint what happened to him, why he is unable to cope with life. He is coming round Sunday to help me move some furniture. He told me it makes him feel useful in a life that he feels is full of uselessness.

    When my son broke up with his girlfriend, he just curled up in a little ball, 12 months ago, and has only just come out of it. He’s 23. It’s all so distressing, trying to keep them aware of the joie de vivre.

    Sometimes I wonder if it is all the death that has surrounded him in the past 10 years, and my ability to cope, is what affects him.

    I wish you and your son well.

  20. [Rossmore

    Posted Thursday, November 28, 2013 at 10:07 pm

    Andrew Elder in good form today …]

    Yep, I refer to and link to AWelder frequently at this place cos I reckon he deserves a wide audience.
    Similarly with Dorothy Parker at Loon Pond.
    And now seems to be the time to flog Bill Mitchell’s blog ” Bill Mitchell – billyblog’ for those that want to try to understand economics [which obviously excludes centre].

    So how about it Mr. Bowe sir, can we have a blogroll on the side bar? Please.
    Or is it forbidden under Crikey rules?

  25. Your son’s friend has got something right. Meaningful activity and structure hold us to life and without it we can all drown. Your young friend recognises this and he is doing it with you. He is fortunate. My son has yet to learn this.

  26. [@Sean/663

    Does that include the Nats? Oh WAIT.]

    With their massive landslide win I’m not too sure the Libs need the Nats handful of seats at all.

    The Libs said they wouldn’t form a coalition with minor parties and have the shenanigans of the last government.

  27. fredex@670

    Rossmore

    Posted Thursday, November 28, 2013 at 10:07 pm

    Andrew Elder in good form today …


    Yep, I refer to and link to AWelder frequently at this place cos I reckon he deserves a wide audience.
    Similarly with Dorothy Parker at Loon Pond.
    And now seems to be the time to flog Bill Mitchell’s blog ” Bill Mitchell – billyblog’ for those that want to try to understand economics [which obviously excludes centre].

    So how about it Mr. Bowe sir, can we have a blogroll on the side bar? Please.
    Or is it forbidden under Crikey rules?

    I agree about Bill Mitchell’s blog and would also suggest John Quiggin’s blog.

  28. Ha just watched Lateline where they showed a brief grab of Shorten at a presser, with Gai Brodtman and Andrew Leigh at his side.
    There they both where, gazing longingly at the back of his head as Shorten spoke.
    It’s such a bizarre look that the libs have perfected so it obviously must work out there in voter land if the ALP are copying it.

  33. Henry:

    It’s a sign of the utter vacuity of politics today that we have to see our political leaders adorned with noddys.

    What came first: the 20 second visual-for-TV grab, or the robotic, on-message political leader mouthing simplistic nothings to a rapidly decreasing audience?

  34. Some good news

    “@CassyOConnorMP: Colin is free!! Come home to Tasmania soon, you hero of our hearts …
    #FreeColin
    #FreeTheArctic30
    #auspol
    #politas”

  35. Ye no need for a blog roll, implies some kind of endorsement as to their merit. I know the blogs I like and dont need a PB tick. Of approval. But recommendations from within the comments is fine. We can look and take it or leave it.

  36. “The Libs said they wouldn’t form a coalition with minor parties and have the shenanigans of the last government.”
    oh it wasn’t that bad. You called them illegals, the Greens called them refugees, but it didn’t stop them voting together to keep them coming.

  37. [ep, I refer to and link to AWelder frequently at this place cos I reckon he deserves a wide audience.]

    I’m sure welders are fine people, but why are a welder’s political views any more relevant that, say, a bricklayer’s?

  38. Sean Tisme

    Posted Thursday, November 28, 2013 at 9:33 pm | Permalink

    Wayne Swan invented a debt ceiling so he could bust through it.

    What a dickhead
    =====================================================
    We’ll see if the Liberal dickhead Treasurer can keep Australia’s position economically.

    in economic terms. Australia’s sovereign credit rating is not in question. In fact, Australia is one of only eight countries which currently hold a AAA credit rating (stable outlook, S&P/Moody’s). Our sovereign fiscal position is undeniably one of the strongest on the planet.

  39. Sean Tisme

    Posted Thursday, November 28, 2013 at 10:43 pm | Permalink

    @Sean/663

    Does that include the Nats? Oh WAIT.

    With their massive landslide win I’m not too sure the Libs need the Nats handful of seats at all.
    =================================================

    Less than 100 days and Abbott would lose an election if it was held now

  40. Ye like Scott Bevan too, eannest and probing, and disinterested in gotchas. Old school and good. Let’s the audience make up their own mind,

  43. Kezza2. I wonder too if my ability to cope has affected my son. My dad died 10 years ago and I lost my mother 20 tears earlier and I was depressed for a period. My son also fell in a hole after being dumped by a first girlfriend after a 2 week relationship and was inconsolable. That was only 6 months ago. In the end we are doing the best we can but when I sit with other parents whose only complaints are about their children not getting an A or not excelling in their sport music etc their succeeding is about their parents. So when your child doesn’t shine you are a failure. I realise I am alone with them and they don’t even notice my discomfort.

  45. Hi lyndajcla

    Indi in particular or Northern Vic in general?

    BTW, I never did tell people who I was — but it all came out when I was trying to drop broad hints so that people here could follow me on twitter (which I’m sure they’re very thankful to me for…)

    I’m Zuvele Leschen, serial Labor party candidate and former Country Labor Executive President, among my many hats.

    (And thanks again, guys, for all your good wishes. As you know, I’ve been somewhat incapacitated for the last few years, so I don’t like my chances…but you’ve got to be in it to win it…)

  48. 503112001 headed back towards Darwin, now has done a 180 turn and very quickly heading back out to sea passed its earlier patrol area at nearly 20 knots

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