BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Coalition

The latest BludgerTrack poll aggregate reflects the overall weakness of the Coalition’s polling honeymoon, without offering Labor any joy on the seat projection.

The latest weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate features the latest results from Newspoll and Essential Research, with a stronger performance for Labor in the former driving a shift in the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead from 53.6-46.4 as recorded last week to 52.7-47.3. Both polls were strong for the Greens, who are in double figures for the first time in quite a while, although you would want to see more evidence for that before concluding the improvement to be meaningful. The solid shift on two-party preferred has yielded Labor only one gain on the seat projection, that being from South Australia. This foreshadows a certain stickiness that will be evident in the BludgerTrack model with respect to the Coalition’s seat share, as the model accounts for a “sophomore surge” bonus in the seats the Coalition won from Labor. Full details as always on the sidebar.

In other news, a by-election looms in Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith, which you can read all about in the post directly below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,562 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Coalition”

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  1. Clive Palmer ‏@CliveFPalmer 41s

    Sympathetic to retiring ex-PM @KRuddMP who was the victim of a nasty & self-serving propaganda campaign from @rupertmurdoch press #auspol

  2. Smith was standing when Jacinta Allan refused to resume her seat. The convention is that you do what you’re told when the Speaker is on his feet, but Allan no longer accepts his legitimacy. Smith could have had her ejected without Shaw present, but maybe he didn’t want to highlight that he couldn’t do that when Shaw was there.

  3. Still rather bemused at the apparently strong streak of social progressivism in the NSW Upper House Nats. Sarah Mitchell and Trevor Khan are the only Coalition MPs supporting the same-sex marriage bill so far. For pure curiosity’s sake I’d love to see the bill get to the Assembly to see if it carries over at all down there (somehow I doubt it), but that’s not going to happen today.

  4. “@danielhurstbne: Abbott govt announces it will provide an extra $20 million to help the Philippines respond to Typhoon #Haiyan bringing total to $30m #auspol”

  5. Tricot back at 148

    I have never understood how Rudd or Garrett could be held accountable for the Pink Batts deaths.

    Companies had to get a licence and then they contracted their own employees.

    Surely that arrangement would be under State law and it was up to the employer to ensure safety conditions for those they employed.

  6. zoidlord@202

    Clive Palmer ‏@CliveFPalmer 41s

    Sympathetic to retiring ex-PM @KRuddMP who was the victim of a nasty & self-serving propaganda campaign from @rupertmurdoch press #auspol

    Murdoch was more pro coalition than anti Rudd. While Julia was PM Murdoch wasn’t as anti Rudd as when Rudd was PM.

  7. [Sympathetic to retiring ex-PM @KRuddMP who was the victim of a nasty & self-serving propaganda campaign from @rupertmurdoch press #auspol]

    JG copped much worse from the Murdoch press than Rudd did.

  8. It’s a common internet term guytaur.

    I know you’d love to rip a baby out of a medicrib to show just how humane and morally righteous you are, but the baby will need to remain in there… whether the mother is 20 minutes away or next to the crib.

    This is why your desperate point scoring is pathetic.

  9. Sean

    when my 10 year old son was sick, my husband and I spent shifts in hospital beside his bed, and slept on a mattress on the floor in his room.

    Because that’s what parents do with a sick child – let alone a sick baby.

  10. confessions

    Palmer would have said the same about PMJG. He is expressing his view of Murdoch more than Rudd

    ————————-
    Plibersek presser

  11. Happy about the additional $20 million, bringing it up to $30 million. Abbott and Bishop must have been getting some serious blowback.

    Now for a proper gesture (not one to which the Abbott Government was dragged kicking and screaming) from one of the wealthiest nations on earth:

    [bring it up to $100 million.]

  12. Sean Tisme@208

    Poor SHY, lost the election, lost the argument and the Coalition are successfully stopping the boats.

    From being returned to Indonesia and are now landing in Darwin instead.
    Yep, great work Typhoon Tony.

  13. Morrison’s problem is that he wants to be as big a bastard as possible while pretending to be as caring as possible.

    All the other refugee mums are having their babies on Nauru.

  14. If this figure of $25 million for a judicial inquiry into insulation is more than merely speculative, the ALP should be out there comparing it to the $10 million for the Philippines typhoon disaster relief.

  15. Tony Two Face and his doubletalk:

    ‘stopping the boats’ means the boats keep coming
    ‘turning back the boats’ means the boats keep coming
    ‘behaving respectfully to Indonesia’ means behaving disrespectfully this afternoon
    ‘we don’t comment on intelligence matters’ means we comment on intelligence matters.

  16. More doubletalk from Tony Two Face:

    ‘no surprises’ means lots of surprises
    ‘no excuses’ means one pathetic excuse after another
    ‘no lies’ means lies and more lies.

  17. [Morrison’s problem is that he wants to be as big a bastard as possible while pretending to be as caring as possible.]

    That was Chris Bowen’s problem, except he came off as completely gutless instead. Doubt you could claim that of Morrison.

    [All the other refugee mums are having their babies on Nauru.]

    This particular lady was having twins and there was complications(one of the babies died, other sick) so she was taken to Brisbane to give birth.

  18. Dr Napthine ought to work (section 8A of the constitution) with the Opposition in bringing forward an election in Victoria.
    The current parliament is a farce.

  19. ST

    [Morrison’s problem is that he wants to be as big a bastard as possible while pretending to be as caring as possible.]

    Whosever it was before does not matter for the next three years. It is Morrison’s problem now.

    Draping himself with a three star, lying, conniving, kicking transparency as well as accountability out the window are surplus to requirements and are making him look like his inner arrogant goose.

  20. “@DanielAndrewsMP: Victorians elected their govt to do just that – govern. Victoria deserves better than Denis Napthine and his dysfunctional govt #springst”

  21. ST

    ‘ All the other refugee mums are having their babies on Nauru.

    This particular lady was having twins and there was complications(one of the babies died, other sick) so she was taken to Brisbane to give birth.’

    Yep. Another defeat for the Coalition: born in Australia means that the baby gets automatic Australian citizenship rights.

  22. [Yep. Another defeat for the Coalition: born in Australia means that the baby gets automatic Australian citizenship rights.]

    It doesn’t actually… that’s the U.S.A not Australia you fool.

    Where do you get these “facts” from, the little book of made up BS?

  23. Sean Tisme@243

    Yep. Another defeat for the Coalition: born in Australia means that the baby gets automatic Australian citizenship rights.


    It doesn’t actually… that’s the U.S.A not Australia you fool.

    Where do you get these “facts” from, the little book of made up BS?

    Are you compulsively stupid because you are a masochist ?

  24. http://www.citizenship.gov.au/current/

    [Children born after that date are only Australian citizens if at least one parent was an Australian citizen or permanent resident at the time of their birth.

    Children born in Australia to parents who are not Australian citizens or permanent residents, automatically acquire Australian citizenship on their 10th birthday if they have lived most of their life in Australia.]

    1. This woman nor her husband are Australian citizens

    2. The baby has no right to Australian citizenship

    3. For a child to gain Australian Citizenship they must have spent the majority of their first 10 Years in Australia

  25. Catherine Cusack really getting stuck into opponents of same-sex marriage in NSW, saying they are the ones destroying marriage. Weird to remember the media alleging she was homophobic a few months ago.

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