BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Coalition

The latest BludgerTrack poll aggregate reflects the overall weakness of the Coalition’s polling honeymoon, without offering Labor any joy on the seat projection.

The latest weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate features the latest results from Newspoll and Essential Research, with a stronger performance for Labor in the former driving a shift in the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead from 53.6-46.4 as recorded last week to 52.7-47.3. Both polls were strong for the Greens, who are in double figures for the first time in quite a while, although you would want to see more evidence for that before concluding the improvement to be meaningful. The solid shift on two-party preferred has yielded Labor only one gain on the seat projection, that being from South Australia. This foreshadows a certain stickiness that will be evident in the BludgerTrack model with respect to the Coalition’s seat share, as the model accounts for a “sophomore surge” bonus in the seats the Coalition won from Labor. Full details as always on the sidebar.

In other news, a by-election looms in Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith, which you can read all about in the post directly below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,562 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Coalition”

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  1. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Vale Ruddstoration. His speech was dignified. Tony Wright sums it up.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/there-will-be-relief-and-anger-20131113-2xh5a.html
    And the international negotiating prowess of Abbott, Mesma and Morriscum continue to garner benefit.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/indonesia-to-change-the-rules-20131113-2xh0v.html
    Some nice types direct from Liberal incubators.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/when-friends-fall-out-insider-trading-court-told-of-emails-20131113-2xh3y.html
    This is a big worry. Can you trust our new team of negotiators to stand up for this country?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australians-may-pay-the-price-in-transpacific-partnership-free-trade-agreement-20131113-2xh0m.html
    Barney Zwartz sums up the Victorian church sex abuse inquiry report. Pell does not come out it well.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victims-vindicated-as-church-sex-abuse-inquiry-delivers-20131113-2xg1e.html
    More details on this from Jane Lee.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/reforms-remove-barriers-to-church-victim-payouts-20131113-2xh5h.html
    Nova Peris says she will expose unscrupulous people who bludge off the human misery of Aboriginals.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/nova-peris-makes-emotional-maiden-speech-in-parliament-20131113-2xh6y.html
    Paul Sheehan gushes. Although he does give Mirabella a good serve.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/joe-hockey-the-enforcer-to-a-daringly-dull-pm-tony-abbott-20131113-2xh3f.html
    Is anybody surprised?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/parliamentary-changes-an-attack-on-democracy-say-independent-mps-20131113-2xggy.html

  2. And from the Land of the Free –
    Cartoons on the Repugs and health care.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/11/13/cartoons-day-gop-health-care/
    And Idiot Pat Robertson continues to show he is a nut case.
    http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/david/robertson-tells-parents-school-officials
    Jon Stewart talks to Joe Scarborough about the Tea Party.
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017158193
    And here Jon Stewart tears in to FoxNews and others.
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017158192

  3. I didn’t know Hughes had accused Mahon of supporting a foreign state – but which state? This was a dubious argument.
    The Free State or indeed any southern Irish entity had not been established but when it was it was one of the King’s dominions and therefore not a foreign state. In any case Mahon, who had spent some months in Killmainham in 1881 for Irish Nationalist agitation was a supporter of Sinn Fein and the Provisional Republic rather than any form of Free State. He was effectively a supporter of treason through rebellion rather than through supporting a foreign state

  4. The venom directed at Rudd from Labor is amazing. Even the Rudd forces had the manners to let Gillard go out with some dignity. But not Team Gillard lol.. no one hates there own better then Labor.

  5. Morning all. Farewell Kevin Rudd, who still beat John Howard and led Australia through the GFC. The second round was not so good. I hope he enjoys a peaceful retirement, but it is a relief it is over now. Given the reaction of NSW voters to the Annersley departure recently, I hope Labor is careful in the choice of candidate in Griffith.

  6. ‘The venom directed at Rudd from Labor is amazing.’

    Yes, but look at the calibre of those intent on denigrating Rudd at every opportunity and those who support him.
    No coincidence that two of Labor’s best performing ministers and individuals of great integrity were among the loudest in their praises – Plibersek and Albanese.

    As Keating said, having enemies is a badge of honour. Particularly when the enemies are empty vessels.

  7. morning bludgers

    Thanks BK for your dawn patrol.

    Sheehan’s piece is weird as usual. I thought Albo had a portfolio. Why is he done?

    [On the other side, Tony Burke will be the enforcer, overshadowing his leader, Bill Shorten. Burke can be tough without being nasty, unlike his predecessor as enforcer, Anthony Albanese, a knee-capper by trade and inclination. On Wednesday, Albo spent much of question time snickering in the back row with Kevin Rudd. They are both done.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/joe-hockey-the-enforcer-to-a-daringly-dull-pm-tony-abbott-20131113-2xh3f.html#ixzz2kYrUp8zQ

  8. adrian

    You may not agree with it, but people are entitled to their view of Rudd. You are a grown person. I am sure you have the capacity to cope

  9. Thanks for the links BK. the one about the “Free Trade” partnership with the USA is bad. We already have one… Except that the USA left out agriculture on the original one under Howard, which sees us with a massive trade deficit to the USA. So why do it?

    The Howard agreement saw almost no benefits, just the start of the end for Australian car component manufacturers.

    Unless agriculture is included, the is no sane economic reason to sign this treaty. We already pay high prices for music and software, higher than even in the USA. It will not create a single job, since our manufacturing is not competitive in USA either way. No farming, no deal.

  10. The story about Abbott keeping the Indonesian VP, Finance Minister and various MPs waiting 45 minutes for a debate on name calling is both embarrassing and funny. Abbott now knows how many years he must wait before Indonesia backs his border protection policy 🙂

  11. [Australians could pay more for drugs and medicines, movies, computer games and software, and be placed under surveillance as part of a US-led crackdown on internet piracy, according to details of secret trade negotiations exposed by WikiLeaks.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australians-may-pay-the-price-in-transpacific-partnership-free-trade-agreement-20131113-2xh0m.html#ixzz2kYuJjqvW

    When is Wikileaks going to leak TPP details they have in their possession?

  12. An SA story of relevance to the engineering construction industry:
    [Three health-and-safety codes of practice are being suspended in South Australia because of the cost burden on business.]
    Genius! Nothing illustrates the incompetence of the SA bureaucracy more. Yes the regulations were badly written and cumbersome. No, without being accompanied by training on what work practices were safe, they would not save the life of one worker. But fix them, don’t throw them out! Workers in SA still die in accidents. Why could we not mirror the legislation of one of the states that does this well, rather than write our own set of rules? We have far too many rule writers in SA, most with zero practical experience in the field they claim knowledge of.

  13. Only two words are needed to express the thoughts & feelings I experienced upon hearing of Kevin Rudd’s retirement…

    They are the final words on this issue I’ll be uttering in this place…

    ………..GOOD RIDDANCE!!………

  14. So I wonder if anybody else who might be thinking of making a political exit might use this as an opportunity to jump too? Then again, the house pretty much cleaned itself at the last election.

  15. Morning all.

    [The story about Abbott keeping the Indonesian VP, Finance Minister and various MPs waiting 45 minutes for a debate on name calling is both embarrassing and funny. ]

    But so true to form for many of the Liberal front bench. The arrogance from them is palpable, and is evident in their shielding the govt from transparency, and the way they conduct themselves more generally.

  16. confessions

    The coalition are bullies, rude, and arrogant, liars. Labor need to hold this disgraceful mob to account. Playing nice will not do

  17. Today’s Mumble on a Griffith by-election.

    [So there’s a by-election on the way in Griffith and many commentators seem to assume Labor will have trouble holding on. But by-election swings to governments are rare, and at this stage at least it doesn’t appear that resentment at the manner of the member’s departure will be a factor.

    We don’t have much in the way of recent historical precedents. In Howard’s case a by-election was superfluous, and the Liberals didn’t contest Keating’s seat of Blaxland in 1996. In 1983 Malcolm Fraser’s retirement saw a small 1.1 per cent swing to the then opposition in Wannon.

    Billy McMahon and Gough Whitlam both remained in parliament for several years.)

    Rudd’s personal standing in Griffith collapsed at this year’s election and he suffered Queensland’s second-biggest swing to the LNP. So Labor’s current 3.0 per cent margin there is not inflated by his personal vote.

    (The largest swing, in Fisher, was due to incumbent Peter Slipper’s negative personal vote in 2010.)

    The Abbott government will probably try to make the by-election a referendum on “repealing the carbon tax”.

    Let’s see how that works out.]
    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/by_election_here_we_come/

  18. The lost potential is the greater tragedy.
    [Now Labor can put Kevin Rudd behind it and Rudd himself might get on with his life. But he leaves behind an astonishing trail of collateral damage: including former ministers Nicola Roxon, Simon Crean, Craig Emerson, Martin Ferguson, Greg Combet, Stephen Smith and Peter Garrett, and many staffers, bureaucrats and colleagues burnt out by Kevin Rudd’s ambition, which burnt beyond his own capacity to control it.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/there-will-be-relief-and-anger-20131113-2xh5a.html#ixzz2kZ0wImDq

  19. [Playing nice will not do]

    I wonder how QT will go today. Yesterday was a bit of a shambles owing to BBishop’s errors and early signs of incompetence in the Speaker’s chair.

  20. confessions

    I watched QT until about 3pm yesterday. I felt that Labor were more or less testing the waters with it yesterday. Today they should be more targetted in their questioning. At least I hope they are.

  21. lizzie

    We should take JG’s cue. I feel that Rudd is in a fragile state. Of course, it could be argued he brought it upon himself. Whatever the case, he has finally made the right decision and i wish him and his family well.

  22. [Australia’s richest woman, Gina Rinehart, invited a small group of Coalition friends for drinks in her private hotel suite, after planning a secret flight to Canberra to visit the Agriculture Minister Barnaby Joyce.

    Some of Mrs Rinehart’s closest political friends, the Speaker Bronwyn Bishop and Liberal Party senators Cory Bernardi and Michaelia Cash, were invited to join the billionaire for the intimate gathering on Wednesday night.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/gina-rinehart-meets-coalition-mps-in-secret-trip-to-canberra-20131113-2xh77.html#ixzz2kZ3EjwnX ]

    Interesting.

    I wonder if the coalition MPs claimed expenses for meeting with her.

  23. I’d be surprised if the Libs even contest the Griffith by election.

    They don’t need the seat and the risk of losing would be too great – particularly if they have people running around saying things like “this will be a referendum on X”.

    Labor had a swing against it in a by election very soon after the 2007 election, when Rudd’s popularity was at its height.

    Given Abbott’s (comparitively) low numbers, the chances are the same thing would happen here.

  24. fess & victoria

    After QT, both Albo and Plibersek made personal explanations to the House. What was interesting was how little regard they both paid to Bronnie’s instructions – on occasion, talking over her (most Speakers would have hit the mute switch on their microphones, but she didn’t).

    It suggests they both realised that she’s too weak to impose her authority. I would assume that the rest of the party room realises the same.

    In which case, QT today will be more of a shambles than it was yesterday.

    The Speaker is not commanding respect.

  25. fess

    I’m saying that’s why they won’t, to avoid that kind of language being thrown around.

    If it’s uncontested, there won’t be that kind of hyperbole.

    victoria

    the assumption is the Liberals will run, but that’s different from them actually running.

    Basically I’m questioning the assumption!

  26. zoomster

    No doubt the coalition will see which way the wind is blowing and make a decision whether to have a candidate or not at the by election

  27. ne thing is for sure, Kevin Rudd will continue to do work for the general benfit for those less fortunate.
    Compare this to JWH’s contributions to society after his retirement.

  28. Good Morning

    NewsBreakfast getting tweets about the secrecy on AS. Public not as dumb as LNP wants to think.

    Lizzie

    I totally agree about the Morrison newborn story. It shows Morrison compassion is stillborn.

  29. WTF?

    [The Senate could vote on the coalition’s carbon tax repeal bill before Christmas, after Labor and the Australian Greens stymied each other’s attempts to establish separate parliamentary inquiries.

    The Greens voted down a Labor motion to set up a Senate inquiry into the legislation, while Labor helped defeat the minor party’s move for an inquiry into the government’s direct action policy.]
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/national/19819560/early-senate-vote-possible-on-carbon-tax/

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