BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Coalition

The latest BludgerTrack poll aggregate reflects the overall weakness of the Coalition’s polling honeymoon, without offering Labor any joy on the seat projection.

The latest weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate features the latest results from Newspoll and Essential Research, with a stronger performance for Labor in the former driving a shift in the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead from 53.6-46.4 as recorded last week to 52.7-47.3. Both polls were strong for the Greens, who are in double figures for the first time in quite a while, although you would want to see more evidence for that before concluding the improvement to be meaningful. The solid shift on two-party preferred has yielded Labor only one gain on the seat projection, that being from South Australia. This foreshadows a certain stickiness that will be evident in the BludgerTrack model with respect to the Coalition’s seat share, as the model accounts for a “sophomore surge” bonus in the seats the Coalition won from Labor. Full details as always on the sidebar.

In other news, a by-election looms in Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith, which you can read all about in the post directly below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,562 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Coalition”

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  1. Re Minimum Wage
    To have a freeze would impose hardships onall the lowest paid in Australia
    Why not a freeze on the highest earners salary they would hbardly feel it

    In the US some state have a low wage of $7 and many low paid exist in poverty…and some work just for tips..the so called” Free to Work States”

  2. @deb/2551

    The problem is, the liberals don’t care about low paid workers.

    Heck they are even trying to force the disabled to work.


  3. [To have a freeze would impose hardships onall the lowest paid in Australia
    Why not a freeze on the highest earners salary they would hbardly feel it]

    Because that’s socialism and we live in a capitalist country comrade.

    [The problem is, the liberals don’t care about low paid workers.]

    You can have more jobs… or you can have more pay… these are your choices, pick one.

  4. @Sean/2554

    Jobs are not there, there is no choice, because there is no choice to begin with.

    It’s that simple.

    Lowering wages does not create more jobs.

  5. Minimum Wages
    In the US some states with high levels of unemployment have the lowest minimum wage or NONE like some of those in the south which have NO minimum wage so S Tisme silly comments don’t hold water ( but who thought they would ???)

  6. There is a few flaws with Sean’s argument too.

    1. Takes about a year or so to get back into the workforce, depending on the applicant.
    2. Currently jobs are being created, but at part time level, where there is not enough security to pay bills, buy things (such as moving from a rental property to applicants first home and keeping upto date on paying bills), etc.
    3. Alot of the construction industry are a “transient workforce” which means they move from one project to another.

    And further to my #2 point, is that lowering wages is not going to drive down the costs, of such things like rent, rates, bills, etc.

  7. Sean Tisme

    [Interesting fact… Australia has the highest minimum wage in the WORLD. And the Unions are scratching their heads why manufacturing is going to shit in this country??]

    There is no manufacturing in this country in which people are employed at the minimum wage and reducing the minimum or ven abolishing it won’t lure any of it back because the drivers of manufacturing have only a passing connection with the wage structure of each country. Our employment provisions also provide for workplace safety which is expensive. Our cost of land is expensive. We don’t permit factories to pollute for free (except perhaps soon in CO2). Also, there’s the question of access to markets, the strength of our currency and so forth.

    If some sweatshop in Bangladesh or Saipan wanted to relocate here, proper wages would be only one of its considerations.

  8. Low wages only add the profit of the Liberal billionaires.

    Low wages do not create jobs, it only creates a greater reliance on welfare

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