BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Coalition

The latest BludgerTrack poll aggregate reflects the overall weakness of the Coalition’s polling honeymoon, without offering Labor any joy on the seat projection.

The latest weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate features the latest results from Newspoll and Essential Research, with a stronger performance for Labor in the former driving a shift in the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead from 53.6-46.4 as recorded last week to 52.7-47.3. Both polls were strong for the Greens, who are in double figures for the first time in quite a while, although you would want to see more evidence for that before concluding the improvement to be meaningful. The solid shift on two-party preferred has yielded Labor only one gain on the seat projection, that being from South Australia. This foreshadows a certain stickiness that will be evident in the BludgerTrack model with respect to the Coalition’s seat share, as the model accounts for a “sophomore surge” bonus in the seats the Coalition won from Labor. Full details as always on the sidebar.

In other news, a by-election looms in Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith, which you can read all about in the post directly below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,562 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Coalition”

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  2. mikehilliard 2495

    When he abruptly stopped posting so quite possible I think 😀

    Oh dear have had to block second abusive LNP troll tonight in 2 days, have never had to resort before to blocking, they are very nasty at the moment

  3. Presumably this dickhead hasn’t been depressed or anxious about the all the people he’s given melanoma to.

    [He says the looming financial impacts of the commercial solarium ban has caused him a “huge” amount of stress since the Government last year announced it would grant no more solarium licenses.

    “To be honest, I’ve been depressed. I’ve actually suffered anxiety from it,” he said.]

  5. [Dennis Jensen MP ‏@DennisJensenMP 15 Nov
    Marie Hand, principal has decided to not continue my wife working at Banksia Park. Hand is a Labor hack; wife only one to miss out]

    But then:

    [Dennis Jensen MP ‏@DennisJensenMP 15 Nov
    Correction, should be Bannister Creek. Banksia Park excellent primary school.]

    Oh dear. How can he be so certain the principal is a Labor hack when he doesn’t know which school his wife works at?

  6. [ The only thing that matters… that the boats stop and the Coalition is winning. ]

    Yes, I understand that these are the only things that matter to you.

    Others have a slightly wider perspective.

  7. [Oh dear. How can he be so certain the principal is a Labor hack when he doesn’t know which school his wife works at?]

    Ms Hand’s lawyers will probably clarify the matter for him.

  9. [ How can he be so certain the principal is a Labor hack ]

    Easy. Principals tend to be pro-education (sort of comes with the job, I’m afraid).

    Anyone who is pro-education is undoubtedly pro-Labor.

    So principals are undoubtedly pro-Labor.

  14. Confessions – thanks – have not caught the news on ABC tonight.

    Interesting that Jensen’s sensitive comments are given some air play.

    He will be up to M/s Credlin’s office for a dressing down on Monday.

  15. Hahahaha

    Sarah Palin apologises for calling the Pope a “liberal”.

    [Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin sent out an apology for her criticism of Pope Francis, who she called “liberal” earlier this week.

    “It was not my intention to be critical of Pope Francis,” Palin wrote on her Facebook page. The former vice-presidential candidate said her comments were meant to remind “viewers that we need to do our own homework, and I hadn’t done mine yet on the Pope’s recent comments as reported by the media.”]

    http://nation.time.com/2013/11/15/sarah-palin-to-pope-francis-sorry/#ixzz2ko28cXlf

  16. Looks like Abbott and Hockey spending like drunken sailers is stessing Wayne out.

    8 billion to the RBA
    few billion on direct action.
    few more billion to women with merrit.
    few more billion in texes given up.

    It’s only a few tens of billion here and there, what could he be concerned about?

    [ Wayne Swan ‏@SwannyQLD 2h

    The clear message Hockey is sending to the world is that finances are not under control. And it simply must stop. http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/11/15/economy/gaelic-debt-lesson-mr-hockey?utm_source=exact&utm_medium=email&utm_content=514054&utm_campaign=kgb&modapt= …
    ]

  18. ABC news on-line talks about the Grylls thing as ‘speculation’ unconfirmed by the hay seeds (whoops – Nationals)

    Having poked fun I hope it is nothing of a personal nature. He is still a relatively young man.

    Perhaps Gina has made him an offer he can’t refuse?

  19. @frednk/2516

    I think it was Abbott or Hockey said that Australia was “open for business”? I think it meant it means free money for Foreign Companies to buy up everything in Australia at bottom rock prices.

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/hockey-national-or-nationals-issue-20131112-2xehh.html

    “Saputo’s bid was approved unconditionally, Hockey said on Tuesday, adding: ”Australia is open for business and we welcome foreign investment when it is not contrary to the national interest.””

  20. Tricot:

    Must be a slow news day for ABC WA if tweets by a federal Liberal backbencher are the 2nd story for the 7pm news – would’ve been the lead if Grylls hadn’t announced his resignation as leader.

    Pity the ABC didn’t run with this, which in my view is much more newsworthy than some silly tweets by a backbench nobody:
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/19861433/indigenous-hit-hard-by-housing-policy/

    I don’t know what the answer is long term, but this isn’t the first time we’ve seen reports of indigenous children being left homeless after their parent/s have been evicted from public housing.

  23. confessions@2521

    Frankly I’m amazed that Palin’s views of anything still get reported.

    Think she just released a book.

    Also she is keen to be President next time around.

    That should help Hillary, should she actually stand.

  24. hockey –

    [“Saputo’s bid was approved unconditionally, Hockey said on Tuesday, adding: ”Australia is open for business and we welcome foreign investment when it is not contrary to the national interest.” ]

    Australia was never so called “closed for business” under Labor.

    Its about time the tories were also called on the “I/ we don’t apologise for….” nonsense replies.

  26. Mr Denmore is startign to suffer:
    [ Mr Denmore ‏@MrDenmore 5h

    Clearly torture is “just one of those things”. How else to explain the prospect of three years living under these thugs?
    ]

  27. dave:

    Remember when Bobby Jindal was the darling of the Republicans when Obama was first elected? At one point he was mooted as a possible running mate for Palin.

  28. [Also she is keen to be President next time around.]

    Oh please, please, let Palin run. And Bachmann, and Gingrich, and Cruz, and the whole circus. They will force Christie (the only even mildly sane senior Repubican these days) miles to the right to get the nomination, so that even if he wins he will have made himself unelectable, just as Romney did.

  30. The Right get madder by the day

    Item 1__________________
    Lately I have taken to an occasional look at the contributors to “Menzies House : and to “The Australian Conservative” websites

    I must say they seem to attract a great many really looony Right-wingers all of a quite paranoid disposition
    Tonight one says that the Fabians are really like the Nazi.( poor old Beatrice Webb).they rave on about One World Government,and how national health schemes are a Leninist plot…such mad stuff as to entertaining in a funny sort of way

    Item 2
    I see that the news carries reports that Abbott may give a tax break to those with a nanny(nanny.. NOT NANA)

    I wonder if we at Deblonay Abbey will be get a tax break
    too for our Butler..it would be a great help

  31. [I was more in the line of building a new community/town ?]

    Presumably one with no standards of behaviour, where people are free to wallow in their dysfunction without censure from the rest of the community. Sounds like a tremendous idea. I’m sure the future for the children growing up there will be bright. /s

  32. [I was more in the line of building a new community/town ?]

    Which would ghettoise public housing. Furthermore the people being evicted mostly live in Perth, where their children go to school and they have social and work connections.

    The Barnett govt has introduced a 3 strikes policy for problematic public housing tenants which is what is causing these evictions. I don’t know what the long term solution to this is, but as the West article asserts, other departments such as Health, Child Protection, and Education warned against evicting families with young children, esp because the eviction most likely dislocates the children from the support structures they need for their developmental wellbeing.

  33. On the other hand Psephos Christie could remain as he is in the sensible centre and look a paragon of virtue by comparison to these other nut jobs. I don’t he is as thick as Romney so he should resist having to outflank them on the right.
    I like Christie but his girth could be an issue.

  35. [On the other hand Psephos Christie could remain as he is in the sensible centre.]

    Then he won’t get the nomination. I don’t think he will get it anyway, because even if he panders to the right they won’t trust him. But he certainly won’t get it if he doesn’t pander. I think they’ll nominate Cruz or Rubio to try and snare the Hispanic vote.

  38. Storm and serious weather lovers have to keep track of the Clipper round the world yacht race, currently winging its way from Sth Africa to WA, and right in the thick of the famous ‘roaring forties’ of the Southern Ocean.

    The ocean scares the bejeezus out of me, so these photos are guaranteed nightmare territory for me.
    https://www.clipperroundtheworld.com/newsitem/race-4-day-11-teams-batten-down-hatches-in-preparation-for-stronger-winds-

    https://www.clipperroundtheworld.com/newsitem/race-4-day-12-strong-front-moves-through-rear-of-race-fleet-

    And this video is positively toe curling!
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHiF8f7bCCg&feature=youtu.be

  39. Cruz is tea party and would result in a landslide for Hilary whilst Rubio is very green. Given his dubious family history he isn’t trusted all that much by hispanics and latinos.

  40. What, Tony Abbott says that while his government “deplores the use of torture we accept that sometimes in difficult circumstances difficult things happen”? What does he mean? When things get tough people have to be tortured? What an idiot. Of course, he was part of a Government that allowed, without protest, two Australians to be incarcerated without any due process and tortured in Guantanamo Bay, so maybe he’s just being consistent for once.

  42. What do Abbott,Hockey and Barnaby do about”the excesses of unbribled capitalism”
    because according the Guardian,the Pope is planning a new encyclical on the Environment and Capitalism,,,and this on top of his condemnation of Fracking..and he has spoken too of ‘the excesses of unbridled capitalism”

    Never before has the Australian Right had such a brAce of Catholic leaders”’will they listen to the Pope now that is has apparently become a Green,,and how will they respond to his Encyclical if he touches on Global warming
    interesting times indeed !!!

  45. The 50th Anniversary of The Kennedy Assassination has triggered much new speculation in the USA about the cause _________

    This article made me have new thoughts about the event which I have tended to forget until a US friend sent me material on another book which …like this article …suggests that Kennedy was killed by the CIA which like the military -industrial complex disliked the way he had prevented then using the Cuban Missile Crisis as an excuse for a nucleur attack on the Soviet Union

    A disturbing article …knowing now what we do about the CIA…their involvement seems plausible …and Kennedy may have been their victim

  48. Win for leftist candidates in the USA minicial elections
    ________
    In Seattle a Socialist Alternative candidate is ahead in the last stages of the count against a Democrat councillor

    The Socialist,a woman is a Uni academic ,of Indian origin and had a progranme for a new tax by the City on high incomes to fund improvements in public transport,and a raft of other measures including a new higher minimum wage of $15

    In Minneapolis another Socialist Alternative candidate who led homeless people to occupy vacant homes owned by the banks,came within a few hundred votes of winning too

    In New York left groups joined the campaign of de Blasio a progressive Democrat who won the Mayoralty after 20 years of Repub rule ihn New York on a platform of free Kinders for low-income families and other welfare meassures for low income earners

  49. @Sean/2546

    Come out of your cave already?

    Manufacturing is going to shit because of other reasons, not just wages, how about fat cats reduce their wages, along with politicians?

    Oh and 5.5 earthquake hit Eastern-Japan.

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