BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Coalition

The latest BludgerTrack poll aggregate reflects the overall weakness of the Coalition’s polling honeymoon, without offering Labor any joy on the seat projection.

The latest weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate features the latest results from Newspoll and Essential Research, with a stronger performance for Labor in the former driving a shift in the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead from 53.6-46.4 as recorded last week to 52.7-47.3. Both polls were strong for the Greens, who are in double figures for the first time in quite a while, although you would want to see more evidence for that before concluding the improvement to be meaningful. The solid shift on two-party preferred has yielded Labor only one gain on the seat projection, that being from South Australia. This foreshadows a certain stickiness that will be evident in the BludgerTrack model with respect to the Coalition’s seat share, as the model accounts for a “sophomore surge” bonus in the seats the Coalition won from Labor. Full details as always on the sidebar.

In other news, a by-election looms in Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith, which you can read all about in the post directly below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,562 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Coalition”

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  1. [“I think he’s a politician of immense stature and ability and I’m sure he’ll do an excellent job.”]

    I guess he couldn’t say what he was probably really thinking. 😀

    The body language between the two on the news last night told a different story.

  2. Bludgers you have a curious double standard concerning Sri Lanka and Indonesia. If Tone or Julie Bishop do anything to upset the sensitivities of Indonesia you get angry and accuse them of incompetence. But apparently you actually want Tone and Julie Bishop to stick it to the Sri Lankans and ruin our relationship with them in a fit of mostly ignorance-based moral grand standing. How curious.

  3. This from Possum

    [Abbott is morphing into the Prince Philip of Australian politics. A bumbling antiquarian looking like a rabbit in a spotlight]

  4. Resurgent Turkeys

    Australia come as a supplicant to Indonesia requiring its help to deal with a policy priority or two. Being an offensive supplicant is … err … incompetent.

    Australia doesn’t need anything from Sri Lanka, because SL already wants to stop Tamils fleeing, and tipping the bucket on what’s goin on there. Offending them isn’t nearly so problematic.

    Oh … and Sri Lanka is clearly engaging in wholesale abuse of the human rights of people it deems its own citizens, which is self-evidently different from the case of Indonesia. It is violating human rights provisions endorsed by Australia so grossly that the case of any Tamil claiming asylum here is prima facie plausible.

    What Abbott is doing is called cognitive dissonance — designed to avoid providing a general case for all SL applicants. The trouble with this policy — apart from the dishonesty and cynicism of it — is that providing cover for the SL regime makes it more likely that the abuse will continue and that any fair assessment will support claims of persecution.

    I wonder why you left out those details in your comparative evaluation. Actually, I don’t wonder at all.

  5. [Oh … and Sri Lanka is clearly engaging in wholesale abuse of the human rights of people it deems its own citizens, which is self-evidently different from the case of Indonesia]

    I’m surprised at you Fran. I thought you of all people would be all over the West Papua issue.

  6. [I want Abbott to be truthful about the situation in all Countries.]

    Sounds like a recipe for diplomatic disaster for any country at any time in any period of history.

  7. [Sounds like a recipe for diplomatic disaster for any country at any time in any period of history.]

    Sorry you are wrong as ever. Diplomacy does not mean avoiding distasteful facts, as David Cameron chastised Abbott over his torture gaffe.

  8. [Has Abbott said anything at all about Haiyan and the humanitarian disaster in the Philippines?]

    Probably said something daft like “The Philippines are the best friend of Australia” like he does to every country.

  9. [Sorry you are wrong as ever. Diplomacy does not mean avoiding distasteful facts, as David Cameron chastised Abbott over his torture gaffe.]

    A man like Tony Abbott would tell the real truth, not the politically correct truth. He’d probably end up in prison.

  10. [Probably said something daft like “The Philippines are the best friend of Australia” like he does to every country.]

    Probably. 😆

  11. ruawake@2462


    Has Abbott said anything at all about Haiyan and the humanitarian disaster in the Philippines?


    Probably said something daft like “The Philippines are the best friend of Australia” like he does to every country.

    He mis-read or didn’t read the briefing, yet again.

    He was suppose to say, “Australia has no greater friend then xyz”.

    Such can be used over and over…

    The US use that form of words all the time, but abbott stuffed it up.

  12. The unrest in Papua/West Papua has diminished since the agreement to spend 80% of taxes raised in the provinces on the provinces.

    Maybe a similar thing would shut WA up? 😉

  13. [ A man like Tony Abbott would tell the real truth, not the politically correct truth. He’d probably end up in prison. ]

    Men like Abbott do not believe in objective truth.

    But I sincerely hope your second sentence is more accurate.

  14. [2164
    guytaur

    People have cause to be worried about their disability pension. Same for other health and welfare areas.]

    [2181
    confessions

    @guardianeco: Cameron links typhoon Haiyan to climate change http://t.co/gRJ4pWlx0N

    As I said last night, he and Abbott are like chalk and cheese.]

    Not always.

    I have no doubt Abbott is a big fan, and keen student, of Cameron’s brutal welfare ‘reforms’.

  15. Turkeys, it’s not West Papuans coming to Australia in boats (which is actually quite surprising considering how bad things are supposed to be there). The people coming from Indonesia are only using it as a transit. The people coming from Sri Lanka are Sri Lankans, not transiters. Therefore, it’s legitimate to tell Rajapaksa to stop beating up on the Tamils as part of a strategy to stop people trying to cross the Indian Ocean by boat. The boat traffic from Indonesia is not being caused by Indonesia beating up on its own citizens. (It’s being caused by Indonesian slackness and corruption, but that’s another matter.) Do you grasp this distinction?

  16. Resurgent Turkeys

    [I’m surprised at you Fran. I thought you of all people would be all over the West Papua issue.]

    Oh I favour autonomy for West Papua, and strongly suspect that human rights abuses are going on there, but the evidence is more diffuse and scattered. But just to be clear, you do accept that serious breaches of human rights are going on in Sri Lanka — correct?

    Secondly, since you raise it, do you assert that Abbott should be pressing for self-determination/autonomy for West Papua?

    Abbott’s incompetence had nothing to do with his desire for human rights and everything to do with his desire (in the case of “boats” and Indonesia) to show his machismo — hence Julie Bishop’s remark that we sought not Indonesia’s “permission” to turn back “boats” but their “understanding”.

  17. RT,

    Surprise that people’s views are more complex and reasoned than you gove them credit for appear to be a recurring theme of your posts. Perhaps its time to reevaluate.

  18. Steve777@2442

    Re Lizzie @ 2425. That’s good information, it’s always good to have the facts at hand.

    I wonder if that was a ‘Going out of business’ sale, spurred on by all the noise that Abbott and Morrison were making about boats in the lead up to the election.

    Here’s a link to data on boat arrivals since 1976.

    http://www.aph.gov.au/about_parliament/parliamentary_departments/parliamentary_library/pubs/bn/2012-2013/boatarrivals#_Toc347230719

    (Scroll down top Appendix A or Appendix B).

    Thank you very much for that, the link is very valuable information.

  19. [Therefore, it’s legitimate to tell Rajapaksa to stop beating up on the Tamils as part of a strategy to stop people trying to cross the Indian Ocean by boat.]

    Of all of the facets of Sri Lanka’s strategy for dealing with the Tamils, I’m sure its impact on Australia is pretty far down the list of Sri Lankan government concerns, and anything said by Australia is unlikely to get them to change. I’m sure they view the preservation of the peace, order and unity of their country as more important than not inconveniencing Australia with a few thousand boat people.

    Indonesia is another country that doesn’t care much about inconveniencing Australia with a few thousand boat people, but they have much less of an excuse for continuing to allow the trade to flourish in their country when it would be relatively easy to stop (especially since Australia would cover any financial cost as well as any other assistance they might want).

    But according to the experts here on Poll Bludger we are meant to go soft on the Indonesians and hard on the Sri Lankans.

  20. [Secondly, since you raise it, do you assert that Abbott should be pressing for self-determination/autonomy for West Papua?]

    I think Abbott should use international relations to press for the best outcomes for Australia. If I were him I wouldn’t even mention things like West Papua at all unless doing so had some benefit for Australia.

  21. [Cormann is now saying that separating the mother from her newborn and sick baby was not a decision made by the Government.]

    Who cares… this is a distraction of the left.

    The only thing that matters… that the boats stop and the Coalition is winning.

  22. Turkey

    [But according to the experts here on Poll Bludger we are meant to go soft on the Indonesians and hard on the Sri Lankans.]

    Saying torture is acceptable is neither going soft nor hard; it is condoning war crimes.

  23. @Sean/2479

    Actually, your distracting those here, by claiming Coalition is winning on the boat issue.

    This post of yours just says everything about it.

  24. [Saying torture is acceptable is neither going soft nor hard; it is condoning war crimes.]

    Time to kick Indonesia out of West Papua then, just like Howard did with East Timor in ’98

  25. [ I’m sure they view the preservation of the peace, order and unity of their country as more important than not inconveniencing Australia with a few thousand boat people.]

    No the President is concerned about his own power and worrying when he will be called before a War Crimes Court.

    The disappearances, piles of dead bodies, and raped tamil women are part of order and unity in Turkeyville.

  26. ru

    [The disappearances, piles of dead bodies, and raped tamil women are part of order and unity in Turkeyville.]

    And they are just “shit happens” in Abbottville.

  27. Fran Barlow@2473

    I favour autonomy for West Papua, and strongly suspect that human rights abuses are going on there, but the evidence is more diffuse and scattered.

    Not really, it waxes and wanes, but its ‘there’ most of the time for those who stick their heads up and don’t toe the line.

    Its not that any of this is unknown.

    Huge populations were, ‘transmigrated’ from more over-populated areas of Indonesia over the last 50 years or so and they now outnumber West Papuans by a big number.

    I have been there a number of times but a long time ago. First in 1976, PNG to the West Papua Provincial capital of Jayapura (still called by some at that time, Sukarnapura) and then across Indonesia.

    It was basically a garrison town then with security very alert to foreigners coming and going – particularly if they thought your were a reporter.

    Later in the 1980’s I went back there for long weekend trips when I lived in the adjoining Sepik Provinces of PNG, as many aussie expats did.

    There were West Papuan refugee populations there 30-40 years ago, near Vanimo, West Sepik just across the border from Jayapura but elsewhere – Daru down on the south coast and of course in Moresby itself.

    These were mainly people who had stood up against the Indonesians, the military and who would be killed etc if they went back.

    Indonesia will never let West Papua go. No way, particularly after East Timor. Face is involved, deep suspection about Australian motives but also economically – the huge Freeport gold-copper mine has big inputs to the Indonesian economy as well as a huge earner for the Indonesian Army.

    Would Australia or anyone else take on Indonesia over it? Nope, very very doubtful. The West Papuans just don’t have any powerful friends prepared to risk it.

    If Australia did, Indonesian payback of dis-stabilising PNG along the joint border and within PNG would not be far off.

    As it is if PNG ‘blew up’ with a major internal disturbance and a wide spread breakdown of law & order, there would be little Australia could do.

    Then there is the population time bomb in PNG – they will have a bigger population than Australia, probably by 2030. No one really knows the actual population of PNG dispiste the census’ that are carried out.

  28. These are West Papuans:

    And these are Indonesians:

    Notice a difference???

    Different Culture. Different Race. Different Religion. Different Values. Different Beliefs.

    Independence Please.

  29. [ Independence Please. ]

    Off you go the, truthie – go up there and get is all started.

    You will last less than 5 minutes after the Indonesian Army get you.

    A big mouth will only make it even more painful.

    Better still try and sell the idea to abbott.

    FFS!

  30. Thanks to Dave for an intelligent post. The other point is that West Papua was part of the Netherlands East Indies and Indonesia is the legitimate successor state. That was not true of East Timor, which was taken over by force. President Habibie acknowledged that when he allowed the East Timor plebiscite, which he knew would mean independence.

    It’s true that the Melanesian West Papuans are not ethnic Indonesian (ie, Javanese), but then that’s true of many other peoples in the archipelago – Moluccans, Acehnese, Balinese etc etc. It’s not in Australia’s interests for Indonesia to fall apart.

    As Dave points out, the Melanesians are now a minority in West Papua. The number of people actively opposing Indonesian rule seems to be pretty small – otherwise there would be more refugees. It’s pointless provoking Indonesian nationalism for no achievable purpose. Australia’s policy ought to be gently encouraging Indonesia to make life more tolerable for the West Papuans.

    Someone referred earlier to supporting “autonomy for West Papua.” The Indonesian provinces, including Papua and West Papua, already have elected governors and provincial assemblies, with considerable delegated powers. Papua Province also has a council of Papuan tribal elders to represent the traditional population. So the formal structures of autonomy already exist.

  31. I was trying to think of a country that did not have:

    [Different Culture. Different Race. Different Religion. Different Values. Different Beliefs.]

    Nope, can’t think of one. Japan comes close, but misses on most of the criteria. Nope all countries have multiple variations.

  32. Oh dear the word must have gone out from LNP Headquarters all out attack today. Have had 5 trolls with a princely sum of about 100 followers between them on the attack today on twitter. Quite nasty ones too and very abusive Seems to be a heighten level of activity from our resident LNPers on here today too, especially the one trying to break the record for the most inane comments, may have suceeded too. 😀

  33. Sean Tisme @ 2483: When you speak of Howard kicking Indonesia out of East Timor in ’98 [sic], you are proclaiming to the audience here that you are not only a fool, but an ignorant fool.

  34. [Brendon Grylls to resign as Nats leader.]

    Just saw that. I hope it isn’t my local member who replaces him as his wife would become totally unbearable if he did. When he became a minister she started strutting around as if she owns the bloody town. Think Hyacinth Bucket.

  35. Stop Da Truth ‏@geeksrulz 51m

    2 months in Australia is laughing stock in Warsaw, the pits in New York Times and the defenders of torture at CHOGM. Whacko enough for you?

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