BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Coalition

The latest BludgerTrack poll aggregate reflects the overall weakness of the Coalition’s polling honeymoon, without offering Labor any joy on the seat projection.

The latest weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate features the latest results from Newspoll and Essential Research, with a stronger performance for Labor in the former driving a shift in the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead from 53.6-46.4 as recorded last week to 52.7-47.3. Both polls were strong for the Greens, who are in double figures for the first time in quite a while, although you would want to see more evidence for that before concluding the improvement to be meaningful. The solid shift on two-party preferred has yielded Labor only one gain on the seat projection, that being from South Australia. This foreshadows a certain stickiness that will be evident in the BludgerTrack model with respect to the Coalition’s seat share, as the model accounts for a “sophomore surge” bonus in the seats the Coalition won from Labor. Full details as always on the sidebar.

In other news, a by-election looms in Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith, which you can read all about in the post directly below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,562 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Coalition”

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  1. OMG Thought it would be safe and Cranky would have burnt himself out now. But what do I find he is still going at turbo speed and joined by baby sean. What a duo both sprouting rubbish.

    Surely you have broken the record by now Cranky for most continual drivel posts. 😀

    Anyway would rather face the second storm outside than what is on PB at the moment good luck WWP Zoidlord and Player One looks as though I am not the only one either by the lack of comments by other PBers

    Bye

  3. Makes it easy to keep up with the day on PB though Mairi. You can fly through ten or a dozen pages populated by STM and CC in no time at all.

  6. Being Foreign Minister is not doing much for our Julie. She’s rapidly taking on a close resemblance to a celluloid department store mannequin. Not as sexy though – or as intelligent.

  7. Widespread Opposition to PanPacific Trade deal
    ____________________
    “Counterpunch” reports the growing movement against the deal within the US and also in Latin America and some asian countrioes

    Those worried in Australia may find this interesting…and to learn also of a proposed International Day of Protest on Dec 3…which I understand will have the support of the Greens and Get Up here in Australia
    One hopes there will be a strong ALP opposition to the deal which as all such deals so.do..tilts all matters towards the American Empire

  11. [In Colombo attending the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM), Mr Abbott on Friday commented on reports of alleged torture by Sri Lankan security forces.

    Mr Abbott told reporters that while his government “deplores the use of torture we accept that sometimes in difficult circumstances difficult things happen”.

    Labor rejected the comment.

    “The use of torture is never justifiable,” shadow attorney-general Mark Dreyfus said on Saturday.

    “There is never a ‘difficult’ situation where torture should be accepted.”]
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/19876006/abbotts-torture-comment-sparks-response/

  12. Cormann is now saying that separating the mother from her newborn and sick baby was not a decision made by the Government.

    No surprises, no excuses, no lies.

  15. The shame about two jesters at the same time, one I suppose, somewhat more cogent than the other, is that there is just too much dross to scroll over.

    Shame one has to pick and chose when to come here as while I would not want to choke off anyone’s opinion when it degenerates into just who makes the loudest, longest and daftness cat calls, this place becomes a desert.

    Not blaming the red neck cat callers entirely for this of course.

    The temptation is to feed them their stir up lines so they can come back with predicable responses, but even that gets boring after awhile.

  19. [Cormann is now saying that separating the mother from her newborn and sick baby was not a decision made by the Government.]

    I thought they weren’t commenting on ‘operational matters’?

  20. And Dennis Jensen bagging the local school principal in Perth where his wife works as being a “Labor hack”. Just so subtle.

    Seems she did not get a job for 2015 and he is blaming the principal because of her political leanings – or at least his perception of them.

    Nobody does hypocrisy like this crew.

    I gather, from the item, that said wife did not even apply for the job.

    Isn’t Jensen a Jappie? Not that should make any difference if he is, but wondered?

  23. I think we must differentiate between ordinary intelligence (can add up figures & pass law degree), and emotional intelligence (empathy, understanding of others’ points of view).

    JulieB? Abbott? Plibersek? Shorten?

    How d’you think they’d rate?

  26. [Cormann is now saying that separating the mother from her newborn and sick baby was not a decision made by the Government.]

    They are both captives of the Abbott Government and now the Abbott Government wants us to believe that they don’t know what is happening to their own captives?

    Sex assaults in Manus – no investigation, no trials and no convictions.

    Sex between guard and prisoner on CI. Guard fired. Cerco gets off scot free.

    Baby taken from mother for 18 hours a day, ‘We know nothing.’ from Cormann.

    As somone pointed out somewhere the other day, when you generate a culture of secrecy, bastardry happens.

    Abbott is 100% responsible for happens to his prisoners. He should man up.

  28. Tricot

    [Seems she did not get a job for 2015 and he is blaming the principal because of her political leanings – or at least his perception of them.]

    AIUI, Abbott, and by extension, Jensen, favours “empowering school principals” to hire/fire as they see fit.

    Now principals have always had untrammelled power over casuals — which Jensen’s wife is — but this does underline their cluelessness.

  29. Cameron doing a better job at CHOGM than that approver of torture, Abbott.

    Abbott is, of course, hoping to stitch up this kind of deal:

    (1) Australia will publicly accept that you are torturing, raping and ‘disappearing’ men and women. We will call them ‘difficulties’.
    (2) Sri Lanka will continue to have ‘difficulties’.
    (3) Sri Lanka will go out of its way to try to stop tamils from fleeing by boat to Australian.
    (4) Australia will offer Sri Lanka aid for economic development.

  31. How or more likely why does Jensen get pre-selected. The rank and file of his branch have been over-ruled twice from memory, yet he still gets selected.

    Who is backing him?

  32. Will Abbott back Cameron’s call for an International Inquiry into SL war crimes? Makes it another mess he has to wriggle out of.

    We will send all boats back to SL is difficult if atrocities are being reported daily.

  33. BW –

    [Abbott is, of course, hoping to stitch up this kind of deal: ]

    Looks like he got what he wanted –

    [ The Sri Lankan government has confirmed an arrangement is being negotiated with Australia to tackle people-smuggling.

    Sri Lankan Minister for Media, Keheliya Rambukwella, told journalists in Colombo on Saturday the deal was a memorandum of understanding between the two navies.

    “There is an arrangement, an MOU to be signed between the two naval forces,” the minister said.

    “All the details have been discussed and once it is signed it will be made a public document.”

    Prime Minister Tony Abbott, in Colombo for the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting, will meet with Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa later on Saturday with people-smuggling set to be on the agenda.

    Foreign Minister Julie Bishop is understood to have discussed the new strategy with her Sri Lankan counterpart when she was attending a meeting of Commonwealth foreign ministers in Colombo this week.

    The coalition took to the federal election a policy of intercepting all identified asylum seeker vessels travelling from Sri Lanka outside the Australian sea border and arranging for the immediate return of all passengers.

    The key to the policy is ensuring what have been described as “safe transfer arrangements” involving the Sri Lankan government. ]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/sri-lanka-confirms-deal-on-people-smuggling-20131116-2xnhf.html#ixzz2kmz4zQ3o

  34. [Who is backing him?]

    No idea but I’d love to know why Jensen. It’s not like he’s future leader material, and remains a backbencher.

  35. @dave/2433

    Wonder how much flights will cost the Australian Tax Payer, on top of the Detention Centers, Navy costs and so forth?

    “The coalition took to the federal election a policy of intercepting all identified asylum seeker vessels travelling from Sri Lanka outside the Australian sea border and arranging for the immediate return of all passengers.”

  36. dave

    Remember that SL Navy personnel have been arrested for smuggling people recently. One of them was invited to Australia and briefed by Morrison.

    [Fairfax Media reported on Friday that a senior naval officer, Lieutenant Commander Sanjeewa Annatugoda, had briefed the head of Australia’s border protection command, Rear Admiral David Johnston, on counter-smuggling operations, at the same time as he was allegedly a key player in Sri Lanka’s largest smuggling ring.
    Advertisement
    Lt-Cdr Annatugoda may even have been brought to Australia to be briefed on Canberra’s measures to stop people smuggling, Immigration Minister Scott Morrison said.
    “I am advised that there was no information provided at that briefing that might have assisted him with his alleged criminal activities,” he said.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/sri-lanka-to-make-more-arrests-more-sailors-linked-to-people-smuggling-ring-20131115-2xmdd.html#ixzz2kn18N3AR

    Scoot can really pick winners.

  38. [Fairfax Media reported on Friday that a senior naval officer, Lieutenant Commander Sanjeewa Annatugoda, had briefed the head of Australia’s border protection command, Rear Admiral David Johnston, on counter-smuggling operations, at the same time as he was allegedly a key player in Sri Lanka’s largest smuggling ring.
    Advertisement
    Lt-Cdr Annatugoda may even have been brought to Australia to be briefed on Canberra’s measures to stop people smuggling, Immigration Minister Scott Morrison said.
    “I am advised that there was no information provided at that briefing that might have assisted him with his alleged criminal activities,” he said.]

    Sure. He was briefed by one of Morrison’s General Sockpuppets about operational matters such as counte-smuggling measures and he learned nothing.

    Morrison is like a worm on a hook. First, separating a mother from her sick baby was standard operating procedure of the hospital. Then the hospital said, wtte, Morrison is lying about our rules. Then Abbott says something or other soothing. Now Cormann says, ‘We know nothing.’

    How shamblesment.

  39. So a Sri Lankan people smuggler has been briefed by Morrison’s mob but the Australian people are not being told anything except for Cormann’s, wtte, ‘We know nothing either.’

    Brilliant.

  40. What Cormann needs to understand is that when a government holds prisoners, it is 100% responsible for those prisoners.

    Morrison is the legal guardian of asylum seeker children.

    No excuses.

  42. Re Lizzie @ 2425. That’s good information, it’s always good to have the facts at hand.

    I wonder if that was a ‘Going out of business’ sale, spurred on by all the noise that Abbott and Morrison were making about boats in the lead up to the election.

    Here’s a link to data on boat arrivals since 1976.

    http://www.aph.gov.au/about_parliament/parliamentary_departments/parliamentary_library/pubs/bn/2012-2013/boatarrivals#_Toc347230719

    (Scroll down top Appendix A or Appendix B).

    The surge in 2008 was probably related to the end of Pacific Solution Mark 1. I suppose everyone could argue till the cows came home whether or not that was the right thing to do. For what it’s worth, based upon the information available at the time, I think that it was.

    The reason for the surge in 2012 is less clear in that it’s not obviously related to any change in Australia’s policies. In fact the major change was the reinstatement of the Pacific solution, which had absolutely no effect the second time around. Again, I think that again there could have been a large element of ‘Going out of business’. The people smugglers would have been telling their clients to get on a boat now as the Australian government was going to change at any moment and the way top Australia would be permanently shut. All no doubt ably assisted by Abbott and Morrison screaming about boats at every opportunity. The surge was almost certainly given a boost by the collapse of the Malaysia solution (Tony Abbott, come on down) and possibly influenced by the announcement of the winding down of the US / Western intervention in Afghanistan.

    Anyway, the last couple of paragraph’s aren’t facts, they’re my interpretation.

  43. Boerwar

    [What Cormann needs to understand is that when a government holds prisoners, it is 100% responsible for those prisoners.
    Morrison is the legal guardian of asylum seeker children.]

    Morrison only insists he is their legal guardian when it is to his advantage. Meanwhile, Peta should educate Cormann.

  44. Now Cormann says, ‘We know nothing.’

    Maybe the tomorrow’s Sunday Telecrap could redo it’s ‘Hogan’s Heroes’-themed photoshop, with Cormann as Colonel Klink.

  46. [Following a meeting of the two leaders on Friday, Mr Cameron took the opportunity on Saturday to heap praise on Australia’s new leader.

    “I welcome the election of Tony Abbott and welcome the very strong and good working relationship that I know that we’ll have,” he said.

    “I think he’s a politician of immense stature and ability and I’m sure he’ll do an excellent job.”]

    All he’s done so far is win an election through fibbing.

    http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/abbotts-torture-comment-sparks-response-20131116-2xnfl.html

  47. I think morrisons real test is the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan at the end of the year and the potential for a surge of boats by those who don’t get out with western assistance.

    Depends if the mooted ‘deal’ with Indonesia have been derailed by recent bumps in the relationship or if the honey pot is so good for Indonesia it will go ahead anyway.

    But Indonesia have a tap which can be opened wide with the large numbers of refugees still stuck there.

    Who knows if Indonesia are really clamping down on visa on arrival or how effective any crackdown is anyway.

  48. lizzie

    Cameron’s remarks about Abbott are very lame. He is airy fairy about future dealings, ignoring any mention of past meetings.

    I suppose he couldn’t say “Who? Oh that idiot – did he win.”

  49. It seems the SL Navy branch of smugglers r us arranged for 6,000 people to leave SL to a new life in Australia, with kilograms of gold exchanging hands.

    Now Abbott is negotiating an MOU with the SL Navy, something dodgy here Tony.

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