BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Coalition

The latest BludgerTrack poll aggregate reflects the overall weakness of the Coalition’s polling honeymoon, without offering Labor any joy on the seat projection.

The latest weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate features the latest results from Newspoll and Essential Research, with a stronger performance for Labor in the former driving a shift in the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead from 53.6-46.4 as recorded last week to 52.7-47.3. Both polls were strong for the Greens, who are in double figures for the first time in quite a while, although you would want to see more evidence for that before concluding the improvement to be meaningful. The solid shift on two-party preferred has yielded Labor only one gain on the seat projection, that being from South Australia. This foreshadows a certain stickiness that will be evident in the BludgerTrack model with respect to the Coalition’s seat share, as the model accounts for a “sophomore surge” bonus in the seats the Coalition won from Labor. Full details as always on the sidebar.

In other news, a by-election looms in Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith, which you can read all about in the post directly below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,562 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Coalition”

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  1. victoria for chickens like me, yes. I hope briefly is fast feeling the relief I have.

    Just asking .. but is it usual for the Speaker to make reference to a business person in the Gallery? I know Gina was there to give poor Barnaby love and support but it was a bit pointed of Bronnie to mention her. Bigger donations to Libs coming their way?

  2. 1. AS in shambles.
    2. Trade Agreement to hurt tax payers.
    3. Victoria Goverment in disarray.
    4. Abbott silence the house.
    5. Greens play games with Labor.

    This is 1000% worse than previous gov, give me minority gov any day please!

  3. “@bellfrances: Speaker says he’s already ruled on point of order. Face off between speaker and @JacintaAllanMP, she challenges him to name her #springst”

  4. [You could do a lot better things with $25m.]

    At 3 years from an election (excl a DD), it’s time to throw some grenades… Shorten should suggest the $25m is better on improving building insulation. Target low income earners, and point out that it would save then money on their power bills. Mix up the Govts messages, muddy the waters – and stick it up ’em.

  5. “@sarahinthesen8: Senate just passed Greens transparency motion forcing Abbott Govt to reveal facts on “Operation Secret Boats””

    Labor and Greens get their act together. Good 🙂

  6. Rossmore@155

    Speaker Smith suspended the Vic Parliament for second time today … absolute shambles

    Well, it’s the government that’s suffering from these suspensions. Labor can happily keep attacking Smith every time he resumes the sitting and have him suspend it again. It is the government that is not governing for as long as it continues.

  7. Is it right that Big Pharma might get what it wants through the TPP that Abbott seems so keen on signing?

    I thought Latham did a great job of knocking Vaille and Howard around the head with that issue during the US trade agreement schemozzle.

  8. [Btw according to BCassidy, the star of Parliament yesterday was Joe Hockey…..]

    According to Bonge on RN this morning Joe is the Star, bigtime but Abbott is growing into a fine Prime Minister and proved it with his gracious speech about Kevin. Ugghh!

    I think Gina R and Lachlan M may have been having a chat with Ch10 bods if Bonge is suddenly so glowing about TA.

  9. There are tweets that Shaw has left the parliament building, which means that Smith can now win votes to eject MPs by using his casting vote.

  10. [It’s the Monk in him coming out.]

    mike I notice that one of the cartoonists is drawing TA with a monk hairdo. I can’t remember which one tho.

  11. guytaur

    I see your tweet and raise you —

    [Kate Lundy‏@KateLundy43m
    Disappointing & strange to see Greens vote with Coalition to reduce scrutiny on the Carbon Tax Repeal bills…..]

  12. BH

    [I think Gina R and Lachlan M may have been having a chat with Ch10 bods if Bonge is suddenly so glowing about TA.]

    This may have encouraged them to get with the programme.

    [Channel Ten staff facing the axe

    November 14, 2013

    Network Ten’s senior managers have been ordered to slash their expenses, and redundancies may be imposed to achieve the targets, say sources.

    http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/channel-ten-staff-facing-the-axe-20131114-2xhpt.html#ixzz2kZhPclLc

  13. [Tim Watts ‏@TimWattsMP 3h
    ‘Free’ trade agreements are increasingly a forum for expanding statutory monopolies. As a free trading nation we should resist this #IP #TPP]

  14. On the New South Wales same sex marriage bill before the Legislative Council, now that Ernest Wong has said he’ll oppose it I can’t see any way for it to pass unless the Shooters abstain. Even then it would require the President’s casting vote.

  15. zoomster

    Your responses in fact show you are part of the problem. Too keen to attack to score political points rather than cooperate for the good both parties want.

  16. I can tell the Govt for a mere fraction of the cost that a commission will conclude that it is less than optimum public policy to flood with money a market where unlicensed operators operate.

  17. This tweet sums up the situation here in Vic

    [So right now the whole state of Victoria is at the whim of a thug from Frankston. That’s totally respectable and sustainable #springst]

  18. zoomster

    Of course they are the tweet speaks for itself. Like it or not zoomster its there in black and white.

    All your responses were to score political points instead of acknowledge that simple plain fact.

  19. Perhaps Labor could ask Hockey this today

    [Why’d Australians accept a Treasurer who’s threatening to shut down the govt in Dec 2013 for a problem which may or may not occur in 2017?]

  20. Is that the best sky news can do? A strange morning!!!

    [Sky News Australia
    via @AhronYoung: Victorian Parliament has just been suspended after a very strange morning. Back Nov 26 #springst]

  21. [Network Ten’s senior managers have been ordered to slash their expenses, and redundancies may be imposed to achieve the targets, say sources.]

    victoria and poroti

    That could be the explanation. I was surprised when I heard it but Fran Kelly sounded pretty pleased. Joe Hockey was interviewed after that but I didn’t bother listening to him. Same old, same old.

  22. In fact this is the last scheduled day of the sitting, and the next starts on the 26th, so he has effectively just shut down parliament for the rest of the day. Still, that’s bad enough.

    It’s a pity this didn’t happen earlier in the week.

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