BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Coalition

The latest BludgerTrack poll aggregate reflects the overall weakness of the Coalition’s polling honeymoon, without offering Labor any joy on the seat projection.

The latest weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate features the latest results from Newspoll and Essential Research, with a stronger performance for Labor in the former driving a shift in the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead from 53.6-46.4 as recorded last week to 52.7-47.3. Both polls were strong for the Greens, who are in double figures for the first time in quite a while, although you would want to see more evidence for that before concluding the improvement to be meaningful. The solid shift on two-party preferred has yielded Labor only one gain on the seat projection, that being from South Australia. This foreshadows a certain stickiness that will be evident in the BludgerTrack model with respect to the Coalition’s seat share, as the model accounts for a “sophomore surge” bonus in the seats the Coalition won from Labor. Full details as always on the sidebar.

In other news, a by-election looms in Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith, which you can read all about in the post directly below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,562 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Coalition”

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  1. [Don’t be a dick. The other thing about this interwebs thingy is that people converse here. Now, what did McGowan say about Chevron?]

    McGowan attacked the premier, the premier tried to duck and weave by claiming McGowan was attacking Chevron, Chevron released a statement saying how disappointed they were with Labor, the aren’t really in a position to say how disappointed they are with Barnett are they.

  2. [Mark McGowan asked Mr Barnett to explain why he had discussed in the same conversation the company’s plan to secure an extra 32 hectares on Barrow Island and its record $64 million land purchase at Perth’s Elizabeth Quay.

    Mr McGowan suggested the matters may have been linked inappropriately]

    McGowan is alleging under Parliamentary Privilege that Chevron acted corruptly – disgraceful and politically and economically incompetent.

    I wonder when he’ll have a crack at BHP and Rio?

    May as well make a good job of it.

  3. [McGowan is alleging under Parliamentary Privilege that Chevron acted corruptly – disgraceful and politically and economically incompetent.

    I wonder when he’ll have a crack at BHP and Rio?

    May as well make a good job of it.]

    So the opposition isn’t allowed to ask obvious questions about the Premier’s conduct just in case the Premier has been corrupt and a multinational with him?

    It is an absolutely absurd defence. Makes you wonder if it is the best defence Barnett has.

  4. vic,

    Your son is to be congratulated for having the discipline to save the 20% and avoid the LMI. However, my point was that people can actually get in to a home with 5% deposit. So, the handwringing about people being kept out of the market is so much hogwash. Basically, the calls by the various housing groups are just more special interest pleadings which we are all familiar with her in Australia.

  5. Funny, Galaxy doesn’t seem to have a result for Palmer from that poll.

    I’m sure we’ll see some sort of hilarious outrage at Murdoch from him in the coming days

  6. WWP,

    How about someone putting up the evidence of corruption or criminality before rushing off to a Royal Commission. RCs are not fishing expeditions.

  7. [WWP,

    How about someone putting up the evidence of corruption or criminality before rushing off to a Royal Commission. RCs are not fishing expeditions.]

    You miss understand the RC is needed to clear them, given Labor’s doing its job and questioning the premier seems to have hit a very big nerve.

  8. If McGowan wants to make a habit of making spurious allegations against major economic contibutiors to WA he’s got SFA chance of becoming Premier.

  9. GG we would also be pretty naive as party if we needed solid proof before sending things to the CCC where the opposition do it constantly.

  10. [If McGowan wants to make a habit of making spurious allegations against major economic contibutiors to WA he’s got SFA chance of becoming Premier.]

    Except he didn’t. He didn’t even make such an allegation against the Premier he simply asked the Premier to explain.

  11. [Funny, Galaxy doesn’t seem to have a result for Palmer from that poll.]

    The report of the poll is pretty threadbare. I’ll be surprised if they didn’t ask. I’m trying to chase up the full results.

  12. Given that Barnett was too slick by half in his dealings with Chevron it was right and proper that the LOTO should call Barnett to account.

    Barnett hates being got at.

    Hates being called The Emperor.

    He now now curls into a a tiny ball – refusing to open up to talk-back radio, preferring instead to sit in some office with a journo from friendly West to answer questions which come in on-line.

    This is a man who gloated about what a great electoral victory he had.

    He has made mistake after mistake and even his conservatives cronies at the West are worried about him, but reassuring themselves he is “safe” for the time being from any challenge as there is no one else who could do the job but…………..Buswell.

    That’s the one. Chair sniffer, bra pinger, womaniser – paragon of Tory manhood.

    The joys of living in the Conservative Paradise otherwise known as Sangropia.

  13. WWP,

    Criminalising normal political behaviour is one of the sad legacys of democratic politics. The traducing of people’s reputations and besmirching of people’s character for base political advantage is something we could all do without.

    All sides do it and I reckon it is rubbish.

    You should need more than salacious gossip to haul anyone before any inquiry.

  14. [WWP – Is McGowan now going to ask loaded questions of BHP, Rio, Roy Hill, FMG? – you know he’ll get a result somehow.]

    I don’t know perhaps when Barnett gives them rights to clear large amounts of A class reserve or perhaps national park forest and requires nothing in return, when almost always a lot is required in exchange. You know CC it is such a bad smell on it that Bill Johnson put 2 and 2 together and came up with the question.

  15. Thanks William.

    You’d think they’d have included Palmer given how well he did federally in Queensland. I expect he’d be making an absolute killing in state politics right now

  16. How spooky that it was only last night we were talking about Qld polling and Newman’s tanking personal support and today there’s a Qld Galaxy poll.

  17. Oh dear i fell into your trick CC, because even in my scenario McGowan would ask questions of the Premier and not the relevant company because that is his job.

    That was my Sean moment.

  18. If McGowan wants to make a habit of making spurious allegations against major economic contibutiors to WA he’s got SFA chance of becoming Premier.

    Totally agree. Look at what happened to Tony Abbott. He made so many spurious allegations about the state of the Australian economy that he never became Prime Minister.

  19. WWP @2325 – that’d be the A-Class Reserve that is held out as a Noah’s Ark of the NW because of the pristine state it is in after over 60 years of management by the Oil & gas Industry – they are such environmental vandals.

    And you know how bad the environmental standards are on Gorgon Project . . .

  20. [WWP @2325 – that’d be the A-Class Reserve that is held out as a Noah’s Ark of the NW because of the pristine state it is in after over 60 years of management by the Oil & gas Industry – they are such environmental vandals.

    And you know how bad the environmental standards are on Gorgon Project . . .]

    You seem to be trying to avoid the point by raising correct but irrelevant facts.

  21. How spooky that it was only last night we were talking about Qld polling and Newman’s tanking personal support and today there’s a Qld Galaxy poll.

    PB works in mysterious ways…

  22. vic,

    I meet plenty of singles looking to buy investment properties.

    For families, servicing calculations can be a killer if one partner is the home maker and not working.

    All the more reason for the young to to save when they have the opportunity and not blow the money on another holiday in Bali.

  23. [Demonstrating complete and utter ignorance.]

    Now you are going for abuse. Your factually incorrect implication in the abuse is that something is been given directly for the additional a class reserve area, rather than sending me to a website perhaps you could specify exactly what you are claiming Chevron were required to give in exchange for the additional land?

  24. Baby Sean signs off and CC signs on.

    However – let Google be your friend and found baby Sean elsewhere.

    Remember this one Sean baby?

    Sean Tisme said…

    Can anyone here give me one good reason – any reason that makes the vaguest sense – why gay people should be treated differently. I’m utterly perplexed that this is an issue.

    Why not simply allow two unmarried adult humans to get married. Surely that would prevent Bernardi -type concerns about marriages between three or more people and people marrying other animals…or non-human animals getting officially married to other non-human animals.

    If one thinks the latter is a ridiculous concept, then not allowing same-sex marriage is akin to treating these people like the aforementioned animals…in a sense ridiculing the notion of same-sex marriage.I can only imagine young liberals exhibiting “gay” tendencies would be sent off to reprogramming camp?

    Reply October 24, 2013 at 11:17 AM

    Only a month ago – did someone steal Sean baby’s identity?

    Oh, nearly forgot.

    Where did he post this?

    At MENZIES HOUSE.

  25. zoidlord @2340 – just because it is overseas owned does not mean there is not massive benefits for WA for having them investing billions here. They spend billions here and employ thousands. They will be producing Gas for the WA Domestic Market – a requirement placed on them to get their developments approved.

  26. Re Sri Lanka
    _________
    PM Cameron UK…has shown come courage and skill and eluded the local secret police to meet some Tamil leaders

    I guess we won’t see any such action by Abbott.who only yesterday was praising his hosts for their help with boat people fleeing his vicious regime

  27. [According to independent economic modelling by ACIL Tasman, planned construction of the Gorgon natural gas project on the island is expected to provide a further $64 billion boost to Australia’s gross domestic product, create thousands of jobs and more than $33 billion in local supplier opportunities.

    The project also is expected to generate a substantial contribution (taxes) to State and Federal governments for use on important services, such as roads, schools and hospitals. Gorgon also includes a domestic natural gas capability – providing more energy security for Western Australia.]

    Only $33 Billion – and that’s for one project alone.

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