Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

Essential Research offers more mediocre post-election poll ratings for the new government, together with findings on climate policy, boat arrivals, industrial relations and manufacturing.

Essential Research has the Coalition’s lead up slightly on a weak showing last week, from 51-49 to 52-48, with primary votes of 43% for the Coalition (steady), 36% for Labor (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). Findings of further questions:

• “Direct action” is favoured over carbon pricing 35-31, reversing a 39-29 lead for carbon pricing in May. Support for carbon pricing is down from 43% to 39% with opposition up to 43% to 47%.

• Support for the government’s decision to cease issuing statements when asylum boats arrive is at 39% – surprisingly high, to my mind – with opposition at 48%.

• The re-establishment of the Australian Building and Construction Commission is supported by 29% and opposed by 22%, with the rest down for either no view or don’t know.

• There are also questions on manufacturing which suggest respondents to be broadly supportive of protectionism.

Meanwhile, buttons have been pressed today for Senate contests in Victoria, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory, which you can read about in the Senate counting thread a few posts below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,183 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. Really Crank? You surprise me. I thought reason was everything from you while that from the left was emotional twaddle or lies.

    And now your excuse is “history is history” I see.

    Amazing how much time and your other right wing comrades spend reminding us of how wrong everything has been in the last 6 years or so.

    Ah, but now…Conservative Paradise.

  2. Off topic, I know, but I have successfully snipped the tangle of wire netting from around the blades of my ride-on and proved it worked OK by cutting another patch of grass.

    Had to kneel on the damp ground and make lie a snake to do it, but I’m sure my hands and knees will recover in a week or so.

    These little triumphs are very satisfying. OH wanted to call for a service person. 😛

  3. badcat

    I doubt whether I am under any illusions in relation to Allied activities during the Vietnam War.

    But I was discussing Giap.

  4. Boerwar
    Posted Saturday, October 5, 2013 at 2:23 pm | Permalink
    badcat

    I doubt whether I am under any illusions in relation to Allied activities during the Vietnam War.

    But I was discussing Giap

    ————————————-

    Apologies Boerwar – was not trying to mess up your discussion……

    I just always try to look at things from BOTH sides – but agree Giap, Hitler, ….and especially Stalin – were the greatest mass murders in history …..

  5. Tiche..to forcefully secure and tow or otherwise another owners boat ANYWHERE in international waters without their permission is an act of piracy…..no towing boats anywhere outside Aussie zones!
    Face it..however you write it, paint it, sing it or fake it…you and those other LNP. voters were suckered!..if not, tell us just what the hell did you vote LNP. for!?

  6. Badcat….from way back…

    “Dr Strangelove” said it that many years ago as far as Death and Glory are concerned.

    The fact that the Americans pinched the German scientists for their space program, the Russians pinched the hardware while the I think the Chinese and the Americans pinched the Japanese scientist who were more advance than most in chemical and biological warfare, also says it all.

  7. No surprises
    No excuses
    No lies
    You can trust me

    Surprise No 1 Turn back the boats has been ditched by Abbott.
    Surprise No 2 Buy back the boats has been ditched by Abbott.
    Surprise No 3 Joyce publicly supports Indonesian purchase of Australian farmland.
    Surprise No 4 MacFarlane provides financial support to the Holden.
    Surprise No 5 Hockey seeks to reduce debt by seeking to avoid counting infrastructure debt as ‘debt’ in the national accounts.
    Surprise No 6 When all those Coalition figures said, ‘Tow back the boats’ they were lying
    Surprise No 7 When Abbott said that he would spend the first week of his prime ministership in an Indigenous community, he was lying.

  8. Re wars of national liberation against colonialism and occupation___________________
    all such wars produce horrors and massacres

    Look at Ireland in the(see great film on Collins) 1916-23 period and the work of men like Michael Collins….or the way that terrorist groups like Irguin in Palestine created the State of Israel in 1948…and provided the first Israeli leaders
    So too in many places like the anti-Nazi resistance in Yogoslavia in WW2
    General Giap was notable because he defeated both the French and The USA
    If the French had had the wit in 1945-50 to see that the war in Indo China was a lost cause ,that would have been the end …as happened when the Dutch left Indonesia in 1949
    but the French are the worst of colonisers and would still be today in Syria if they got the chance…. …look at their terrible record in Algeria in the 1950ies with a million Algerian deaths..bad luck for some dead Australians who died in a war in Vietnam that had no purpose for us then or now..all forgotten and pointness now

    because of stupid leaders here and in the USA

  9. bad cat

    No need to apologise, IMHO. You were making a fair point.

    I was actually using Giap’s death to reflect on two events in my life:

    (1) The conscription marble of death did not fall on my birthday. At that time, I would have gone into the army and probably would have ended up in Vietnam had the marble fallen on my birthday.

    (2) Within 12 months I was protesting vigorously and repeatedly against the Vietnam War. Inter alia, this was in the context of sustained mass war crimes by both sides and largely unprosecuted by either side.

    It is a bit of a puzzle to me even now that I moved so quickly from being cannon fodder to anti-cannon fodder.

  10. CC

    [Funny how the unintended consequences of CO2 emmissions are so “important” but the potential unintended consequences of changing the system of government are nothing to worry about.]

    What is funny, to the point of being ludicrous is your attempt to make a comparison of these two things.

    In the first situation we have compelling lines of evidence showing serious, irreversible global harm to the ecoystem services upon which all life on the only planet known to have life depends …

    and in the second, a minor change to how we determine the head of state of one country most deniers think nobody pays any attention to …

    Talk about bathos … sheesh …

  11. Badcat….from way back…

    “Dr Strangelove” said it that many years ago as far as Death and Glory are concerned.

    The fact that the Americans pinched the German scientists for their space program, the Russians pinched the hardware while the I think the Chinese and the Americans pinched the Japanese scientist who were more advance than most in chemical and biological warfare, also says it all.

    ——————————————

    Tricot – Agree with ALL you say ( as usual)

    Find out about Plum Island – Americas biological animal disease centre of New York ,,,, and find it was set up by a Nazi ( under Operation Paper Clip ) ….. and investigate the horrors they create there.

    Now look up ticks and Lyme disease – not recognised in Australia – and see where it “maybe” came from …..

  12. Re Boats congratulations to William
    ________________
    Your recent summary of the deceit and lies of Abbott and Co was splendid and I hope it will shut up the Liberal trolls here like Tisme who are now in a early stage of denial

    It will be funny to watch how the Libs lie and disemble as the boats contiunue to come…
    let ’em roll on I say …it will be a pleasure to watch the Libs embarrasment and dismay

  13. Boerwar:

    Surprise No. 8: Successful applicants for RDA funding have to re-apply for their grants.
    Surprise No. 9: Hockey to lift Australia’s debt ceiling.

  14. deblonay

    ‘…but the French are the worst of colonisers and would still be today in Syria if they got the chance…’

    Merde de taureau.

    That aside, it is a striking pattern that every colonizer thinks that they were the ‘best’ colonizer in some way or another.

    Absolue bullshit of course because there is no such thing as a ‘good’ colonizer. Arguable cases might be made for ‘least worst’ colonizer but even that would be fraught.

    Colonies were constructed on platforms of rape, murder (generally mass murder repeated), pillage on a massive scale, systematic theft, racism, and despotic police states.

  15. [2999
    Compact Crank

    Appointing a President by Parliament is completely different to the current system of appointing the GG.]

    Do you believe that our current system of the GG appointment being subject to the whim of one highly partisan player, the PM, is safer and more democratic than having the GG appointed by a 2/3 majority of parliament?

    If anything, I would have thought that made the GG’s overall position both more independent, and more democratic.

  16. confessions
    Thank you

    No surprises
    No excuses
    No lies
    You can trust me

    Surprise No 1 Turn back the boats has been ditched by Abbott.
    Surprise No 2 Buy back the boats has been ditched by Abbott.
    Surprise No 3 Joyce publicly supports Indonesian purchase of Australian farmland.
    Surprise No 4 MacFarlane provides financial support to the Holden.
    Surprise No 5 Hockey seeks to reduce debt by seeking to avoid counting infrastructure debt as ‘debt’ in the national accounts.
    Surprise No 6 When all those Coalition figures said, ‘Tow back the boats’ they were lying
    Surprise No 7 When Abbott said that he would spend the first week of his prime ministership in an Indigenous community
    Surprise No 8 Successful applicants for RDA funding have to re-apply for their grants.
    Surprise No 9 Hockey wants to lift Australia’s debt ceiling.

  17. [3058
    Tricot

    The fact that the Americans pinched the German scientists for their space program, the Russians pinched the hardware while the I think the Chinese and the Americans pinched the Japanese scientist who were more advance than most in chemical and biological warfare, also says it all.]

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kTKn1aSOyOs

  18. To clarify my comment @ 3068…

    If anything, I would have thought that {being appointed by a 2/3 majority of parliament} made the GG’s overall position both more independent, and more democratic.

  19. joe carli @3057

    You are absolutely right.

    However, when a SIEV requests rescue and is taken in tow the towing vessel, under international law, has every legal right to tow it to either the closest port (in Indonesia) or its’ next scheduled Port of Call (not Christmas Island.

  20. Badcat

    [I dont think WE were too squeaky clean on our side in Vietnam either]

    Indeed, and of course, the war ensued principally as a consequence of the Cold War-driven refusal to accept the vote for the unity of Vietnam following the Paris Peace Accords.

    Instead, there was an attempt to create an artificial country (“South Vietnam”) run by catspaws of the US, and kept there by murder and mayhem.

    The leader of this satrap — a chap called Ngo Din Diem was an early (catholic) version of Mullah Omar, being opposed, inter alia, to music in public. Eventually, the US murdered him in a coup and appointed a homicidal lunatic to do their bidding in his place. They then totally fabricated a military incident as a pretext for invading the country, and proceeded to drop a greater tonnage of explosives on Vietnam (and non-participant countries Laos and Cambodia) than had been dropped by all parties in all thetres of war in WW2.

    Oh and chemical weapons like Agent Orange and 245T which agents continue to affect the populace to this day.

    And yes, they had murder for hire — in which enterprising types could produce bodies in bags and be paid for them.

    And when the war had ended, they weren’t done even then trying to cause mayhem as they tried to bar all trade with Vietnam right down to pencils for school kids — in express violation of the “peace settlement”.

    Targetted killings of those associated with the collaborators scarcely compares with any of this.

    Civil Wars and wars of liberation are not pleasant human rights honouring matters. Neither in the Revolutionary War in the US, when colonists loyal to Britain fought against those loyal to the Republic or in the Civil War much later, were the participants all that kindly to each other. Ideally, one resolves existential conflicts peaceably but often this is not the case and perhaps not even possible.

    When that occurs, rational people argue for as much respect for humanity as possible, but plainly, once civil society vanaishes into armed camps, lots of bad things are going to happen.

  21. Boerwar @3059 I think Abbott is wrong to have committed to spending his first week in an Aboriginal community and then not doing it. The same could be said of visiting Indonesia in the first week.

    Politicians need to be very careful about making rods for their own back – I seem to remember something about the ALP delivering a surplus. . .

  22. Lizzie

    [Had to kneel on the damp ground and make lie a snake to do it, but I’m sure my hands and knees will recover in a week or so. ]

    You didn’t have a car jack and a plank of wood?

  23. Boerwar

    Please keep your list going, until Pug Monkey is shafted, if you have the energy.

    It is a constant irritant to trolls, it informs those of us who haven’t caught all the news as it evolves, and most importantly it is a comprehensive record of an incompetent government.

    🙂

  24. [Tiche..to forcefully secure and tow or otherwise another owners boat ANYWHERE in international waters without their permission is an act of piracy…..no towing boats anywhere outside Aussie zones!]

    Incorrect… someone corrected this lie the other day, think it was on The Drum.

    Boats can be intercepted in International Waters if:

    1. They are involved in smuggling (people, drugs, weapons)

    2. Engaged in Piracy

    3. Pose a national security threat to a country

    This idea by the lefties that International waters are some lawless playground where anything goes is complete crap. We are free to intercept boats in International waters because they are engaged in smuggling.

  25. Badcat

    Many a sympathetic ear here, but some not always so.

    Nobody has a mortgage on being “right” and “reasonable” though I think some of our friends from the right like to think they have.

    Still, it’s all a bit of fun.

  26. Nice comment, William Bowe.

    All those rednecks anticipating post-election shots across the bow, leaky boats raked by machine gun fire, boaties left to drown or be eaten by sharks pour encourager les autres, WILL be disappointed.

    As will those who swallowed the bragging about how we were going to solve the Boats Crisis in Canberra, not Jakarta (WE decide who will come here, not other countries etc.).

    Instead we saw grovelling, blokey hand-pumping, and – to put the sugar on the table – the sell-off of our sacred farmland that would never be sold etc. etc. (accompanied by a classic Barnarby Joyce backflip) plus a return to the hated (pre-7/9/2013) Bali Process.

    I expect Confirmation Bias to continue for a while as the punters who believed they’d worked Abbott’s scams out finally come to the realization that he was out to scam them all.

    Eventually though, percentage-point-by-percentage-point, some semblance of normality will return to politics as we realize having a serial liar and con-man for Prime Minister isn’t really the way we should be progressing towards the future.

    Jack Waterford’s column today was illustrative of what he should have said before the election, about Abbott, but was afraid to, or was too caught up in the collective heckling that defines political commentary in Australia today.

    Some things never change, however. As first cab off the rank in the Kinder Gentler Polity, he has nominated Labor to be the good guys and not carry out any of that nasty wrecking nonsense.

    There’s a country to govern, and like it or not, Abbott has been elected and Labor should give him a go, just as he gave them a fair shake at it, or so Waterford argues.

    At least Waterford isn’t trying to:

    [Pretend that what happened, and which any moron could see happening, actually didn’t happen at all.]

    but his readers can at least…

    [… be confident that sections of the media will be on the {Coalition} side.]

    The best way to stop the rot that Abbott started is to go in hard at Labor if they try it too.

    Too late… for Jack Waterford, and the mugs who voted for the Coalition expecting Abbott to give up the habits of a lifetime and actually tell the truth about anything.

  27. Just me @3068

    Human decision making is not perfect and so democracy is not perfect (but it’s the best thing we’ve got).

    One of the great strengths of the Australian Constitutional monarchy is that the GG is not subject to Democratic forces and acts independently.

    The GG appointment may not be Democratic and is subject, as you say, to the whim of the PM – but the GG acts independently of the PM once appointed.

    The Australian Constitutional Monarchy system has produced one of the longest amd most stable democracies in history – mucking about with the system needs a very good justification – not just “the British Royals are an anachronism” (because they are, but they don’t effect how we are governed).

  28. If Australia is really lucky the Liberals also didn’t say they would axe the ETS (it is not a tax after all), or destroy the NBN, or plunge the economy into recession just to get the budget into surplus.

    The nutters that voted for the three word slogans might be upset, but the country will be better off.

  29. Fran

    No car jack and we weren’t strong enough to tilt the little tractor up. There was a time when I could lift it out on my own when it was bogged – but no longer 😥

  30. Tricot
    Posted Saturday, October 5, 2013 at 3:01 pm | Permalink
    Badcat

    Many a sympathetic ear here, but some not always so.

    Nobody has a mortgage on being “right” and “reasonable” though I think some of our friends from the right like to think they have.

    ———————————–

    Maybe so Tricot – but I still believe we have ” A Few Good Men” …. who know ‘right’ from ‘wrong’ …. ( sound familiar – about those in the military who choose to murder someone they think is a ‘screw up’ to their code of morality and honour )

  31. Not only is the current government not going to deliver a surplus in the short to medium future, but Hockey is actually going to borrow more for infrastructure spending on top of the “terrible debt level” left by Labor.

    Crisis? What Crisis?

    Liberal debt is good debt…….Labor debt all bad….

    Hypocrisy? What hypocrisy?

  32. Tricot,

    When the Coalition posts their first budget surplus in the 2015-16 financial year will you accept they are the better economic managers?

  33. CC,

    Look at what the Canadians did. Changed the flag, drop the Queens mug off the coins and nobody is complaining like they are here.

    Once you realise the Queen is just a figurative head you forget about the silliness of republics, presidents and the rest…. have a look at the U.S, do we really want that system here!

  34. Badcat – Yeh, well, when it comes to war, it is hard to walk with the angels all the time.

    A tale told to me by an old RN sailor from WW2 on D-Day landing.

    He asked a young Canadian soldier if he could take a German helmet back with him as a souvenir. Said soldier who was guarding three Germans obliged by shooting them all dead and collecting one of the helmets for said sailor.

    Canadian had lost about 10 of his mates to the German MGs and he was itching for any excuse to kill any German.

    Not a pretty tail and we need to be careful in being too pious about “our” side.

  35. According to the United Nations Convention on
    Transnational Organized Crime and its protocol against
    the smuggling of migrants, people smuggling is “the
    procurement, in order to obtain, directly or indirectly, a
    financial or other material benefit, of the illegal entry of a person into a State of which the person is not a national or a permanent resident”.

    As it is not illegal to seek asylum or to be a refugee any boat transporting them is not acting illegally. Refugees/asylum seekers are not seeking illegal entry.

    It is not illegal to enter a country seeking asylum.

    Boats undertaking such activity, transporting refugees, are not acting illegally and any interference may be viewed as piracy

  36. Compact Crank @ 3083:

    “One of the great strengths of the Australian Constitutional monarchy is that the GG is not subject to Democratic forces and acts independently.

    The GG appointment may not be Democratic and is subject, as you say, to the whim of the PM – but the GG acts independently of the PM once appointed.”

    These statements are egregiously false in relation to 99.999% of the governmental actions of the Governor-General.

    You are plainly pig ignorant about the way in which Australia is governed.

  37. Tricot
    Posted Saturday, October 5, 2013 at 3:10 pm | Permalink
    Badcat – Yeh, well, when it comes to war, it is hard to walk with the angels all the time.

    A tale told to me by an old RN sailor from WW2 on D-Day landing.

    He asked a young Canadian soldier if he could take a German helmet back with him as a souvenir. Said soldier who was guarding three Germans obliged by shooting them all dead and collecting one of the helmets for said sailor.

    Canadian had lost about 10 of his mates to the German MGs and he was itching for any excuse to kill any German.

    Not a pretty tail and we need to be careful in being too pious about “our” side.
    —————————————————

    I have read about the Canadians – after their fatal massacre landings at Dieppe where they lost many a fine soldier – and the captives were treated badly by the Germans – and they vowed to take “no prisoners” when landed at D-Day ….

  38. ST

    At about the same time as you will concede that “Interest Rates Will Always be Lower Under the Liberals” was just another empty phrase.

    If you want a serious debate about debt say so, but don’t come the glib stuff.

    A Labor government was thrown out at the start of the Great Depression – nothing Labor, or anyone else could have done about that.

    I wonder how many Greek, Spanish and Irish governments have already come and gone and may yet do so – from both sides of the fence?

    Smarter people than me have put the whole debt issue into context of the where and when so your comment is meaningless.

  39. ” …democracy is not perfect (but it’s the best thing we’ve got).”

    You miserable right-wing saboteures did your damnest to overturn OUR democracy…concocting false accusations against the Speaker no less!…colluding with arsehole journalists in the OM. to undermine and lie your way into office and you spiel on to us about democracy….you wretched fascists!

  40. Badcat

    Dieppe was terrible for the Canadians but some valuable lessons were learnt about beach landings.

    Unfortunately, the price was paid in human lives.

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