Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

Essential Research offers more mediocre post-election poll ratings for the new government, together with findings on climate policy, boat arrivals, industrial relations and manufacturing.

Essential Research has the Coalition’s lead up slightly on a weak showing last week, from 51-49 to 52-48, with primary votes of 43% for the Coalition (steady), 36% for Labor (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). Findings of further questions:

• “Direct action” is favoured over carbon pricing 35-31, reversing a 39-29 lead for carbon pricing in May. Support for carbon pricing is down from 43% to 39% with opposition up to 43% to 47%.

• Support for the government’s decision to cease issuing statements when asylum boats arrive is at 39% – surprisingly high, to my mind – with opposition at 48%.

• The re-establishment of the Australian Building and Construction Commission is supported by 29% and opposed by 22%, with the rest down for either no view or don’t know.

• There are also questions on manufacturing which suggest respondents to be broadly supportive of protectionism.

Meanwhile, buttons have been pressed today for Senate contests in Victoria, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory, which you can read about in the Senate counting thread a few posts below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,183 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. badcat

    The Americans DID have tanks


    I think the Russians however had the best “all round ” – if not the best – tank in the T-34 …..

  2. I think the T-34 can be described as the most succesful tank due to the quantity produced and it’s overall effectiveness when used enmasse by the Soviets.

    Whether it was the best is one of those arguments that can never be settled. I’d argue the Tiger family was the best – but it had its’ own limitations.

  3. Bw


    I was an Umpire for the exercise.

    The Americans once landed became a target for ‘Drop-Bears’.

    Ferocious things.


  4. CC

    Looks like the TPP agreement is worth signing just for the sake of the lefty head explodiness.

    You should leave stupidity to other people :P.

  5. Bw

    [bees at Tanga]

    I think the Chermins got the better of that one.

    The ‘Drop-Bear’ story was that they dropped on the back of the neck and then attacked, ripping your throat out.

    Lots of Marines tripping over due to looking up in the Exercise area.

  6. CTar1
    Posted Saturday, October 5, 2013 at 4:47 pm | Permalink

    Harry is a legend.

    Harry is a rich bald pommie.


    … who has never quite survived from the “james Hewitt” controversy

    and :

    Harry is a rich bald pommie.

    But the positive publicity was put in severe jeopardy after it was reported in December last year that during his second tour of Afghanistan he had killed a Taliban commander. Whatever the truth of the matter, the stories put the lives of Harry and his comrades at even greater risk.
    Harry went on to let himself down when, during an interview he gave for transmission after his return, he made some ill-advised comments about killing Taliban fighters.
    He likened pressing the buttons which released his Apache’s Hellfire missiles and 30mm cannon to playing computer games off-duty, saying it was ‘a joy … because I’m one of those people who loves playing PlayStation and Xbox, so with my thumbs I like to think that I’m probably quite useful’.
    His boast — and that’s how it was perceived by many — raised further fears for his safety and brought about an upgrade in his security.
    Harry further incensed his critics when he complained that life in the Army was ‘as normal as it was going to get. For me it’s not that normal because I go into the cookhouse and everyone has a good old gawp, and that’s one thing I dislike about being here.’
    A senior officer who refused to give his name observed that Captain Wales had adopted the language of a ‘spoiled, truculent teenager’.
    A Palace source confirms that Prince Charles simply shook his head and said: ‘This should never have happened. Harry needs some lessons in PR.’
    And one of the young soldier’s close circle said the day after his comments about killing Taliban were broadcast: ‘Oh dear, there’s Harry going over the top again.
    ‘He has only himself to blame, though. Someone should have been there to guide him when he gave that interview. It gave a totally wrong impression of the Harry I know. It’s such a shame, because he did a brilliant job out there.

    Read more:
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

  7. CC

    [puts paid to the rich making the poor fight their wars meme.]

    I’ll admit that sometimes they do OK.

    Even Prince Edward did fairly well in the Falklands. They tried to sideline him but he and his crew locked the doors on their helicopter and wouldn’t get out.

    It was refueled and went back out to do picket duty when it was known that the Super Entendard’s were in the air.

  8. BW

    [IMHO war makes for bad choices but it does not entirely absolve individuals for making bad choices such as murdering children in cold blood because their parents are collaborators.]

    Of course it doesn’t. Acts that are unwarranted by the need to foreclose a greater harm to the legitimate interests of others remain as ethically indefensible during war as during peacetime.

    On the other hand, the lack of timely, accurate and salient information and the absence of the options avialble in peacetime to deal with potential harms that attends the disappearance of lawful authority makes judgements about what is warranted by the knowable facts at any given moment far less precise, and therefore admits as plausible acts from which one would normally shrink.

    That’s not a blank cheque to act os aone pleases, but it does enlarge somewhat the margine for error.

    That of course is precisely why each of us must prefer every credible alternative to war and/or the breakdown of lawful authority. One can only open that door in the most extraordinary and compelling of circumstances, because almost any compromise that averts it will generally leave the population — and especially the marginalised sections of the population — in better condition than war.

    Sometimes of course there are no alternatives. War and the dissolution of the civil power and lawful authority cannot be averted and then those who fought against this must do what they reasonably can to resist the efforts of those who have engineered this catastrophe and protect as much of civilised life and its usages as one can, precisely because that will be critical on the day when the civil power and lawful authority is established/returns.

    That will probably not be easy, because the basis for the kinds of collaboration that attend functioning community has been torn asunder, and resistance may involve acts outside one’s experience and skillsets in circumstances where the very question of legitimate authority is a matter of controversy.

    Yet one must try, without putting at risk the struggle to establish authentic community.

  9. Sean Tisme @ 3091

    [Look at what the Canadians did. Changed the flag, drop the Queens mug off the coins and nobody is complaining like they are here.]

    The “Queen’s mug”as you so delicately put it, is still on Canadian coins.

  10. WTF

    John Robertson was offered a $3,000,000 bribe from Michael McGurk and he only reports it now?

    Surely his sacking/resignation can not be far off.

  11. [One of the great tragedies of WWII was the refusal of the Americans to land Armour in the first waves on Omaha beach and their disdain for the D-Day Funnies as the British Special Engineering Armoured Vehicles were called.]

    CC, they did not “refuse” to land armor at Omaha. They did in fact try to get Sherman DD’s ashore, but launched them way to far offshore so that most of them sank.

    They did refuse the specialized Churchill based AVRE vehicles (which may have actually had something to do with the landing vessels available) which may in hindsight have gotten them through the beach obstacles easier.

    Could have something to do with the US army, rather than the Marines doing DDay. The Marines had plenty of experience by then getting armor ashore under fire and i think they were using artillery equipped Buffaloes in the Pacific by then.

  12. And David , QLD is still 25 years AND 1 hour behind. Don’t like sunlight at 8PM? For gods sake don’t travel to the northern hemisphere in summer!!

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