Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

Essential Research offers more mediocre post-election poll ratings for the new government, together with findings on climate policy, boat arrivals, industrial relations and manufacturing.

Essential Research has the Coalition’s lead up slightly on a weak showing last week, from 51-49 to 52-48, with primary votes of 43% for the Coalition (steady), 36% for Labor (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). Findings of further questions:

• “Direct action” is favoured over carbon pricing 35-31, reversing a 39-29 lead for carbon pricing in May. Support for carbon pricing is down from 43% to 39% with opposition up to 43% to 47%.

• Support for the government’s decision to cease issuing statements when asylum boats arrive is at 39% – surprisingly high, to my mind – with opposition at 48%.

• The re-establishment of the Australian Building and Construction Commission is supported by 29% and opposed by 22%, with the rest down for either no view or don’t know.

• There are also questions on manufacturing which suggest respondents to be broadly supportive of protectionism.

Meanwhile, buttons have been pressed today for Senate contests in Victoria, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory, which you can read about in the Senate counting thread a few posts below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,183 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

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    many people predicted this on twitter the article does not mention vaccinations, ? I would of thought that would been ask as well

    would not be surprised if PNG pull the plug in the end


    bushfire great writing thank you

    so the man mentioned in your piece is there a link pls

  2. Not sure if previously posted

    [Australian Broadcasting Corporation
    Broadcast: 16/10/2012
    Reporter: Emma Alberici
    Opposition Immigration spokesman Scott Morrison, who has been involved in what he describes as wide-ranging discussions on asylum seekers, will not reveal the Indonesian leaders’ reactions to the Coalition’s policy of towing boats back to Indonesia.]

  3. pedant @3095

    Apart from the current GG campaigning for the UN seat, I am unaware of any federal or State GG acting in an overtly political way – and before the 1975 argument kicks off – I’m not going to engage.

  4. Sheridan used to be one of our better foreign affairs commentators.

    But it seems that his critical faculties have turned to mush or he is exercising serialy Jesuistical mental reservation aka lying. Either way, the catholic men’s sodality group seems to be fully functional, praise be to the Blessed Virgin.

    Take Sheridan’s wtte ‘Abbott has just done an outstanding statesman’s job in Indonesia’, for example.

    PvO is far closer to the truth in The Weekend Australian:

    wtte: Abbott is being two-faced, saying one thing to Indonesians and another thing to Australians.

    Sheridan even has a tilt at misrepresenting Abbott’s apology for Labor Government actions vis-a-vis boatpeople and the suspension of the life cattle trade. Sheridan’s judgement of that is that Labor’s black arm band apologies for previous governments sort of set the precendent.

    (1) The apology was not ‘black armband’ as Sheridan states. It was an apology for a horrific series of well-documented historical events. It was widely supported by a largely bipartisan crowd. Sheridan is being a disgracefully hagiographic hack here.

    (2) The apology was a domestic apology to a domestic audience.

    (3) Abbott’s apology was in front of the Indonesian President. Sheridan would know that party-partisan politicking of this sort is simply not diplomatic kosher. It can certainly not be compared with an Australian prime minister apologising domestically. Again, Sheridan is being a disgracefully hagiographic hack here.

    (4) Abbott’s apology was set amongst a fair bit of grovelling bapaking. It was set amongst public back-pedalling on buying, turning back and towing back boats. It was set amongst an agreement to subordinate all of the above to the Bali Process. In other words, game, set and match to the Indonesians because of Abbott leading with his aggressive, unilateralist chin.

    BTW, Abbott wrote the relevant speech, including presumably the apology, himself, according to Sheridan.

    It is also about time that the reactionaries stopped lying about the true causes of the cessation of the live cattle trade.

    Are Sheridan and Abbott really saying that gross cruelty to Australian cattle was fine with them? Because it was not fine with the vast majority of Australians – Greens, Labor or Liberal alike.

  5. tricot

    ‘Dieppe was terrible for the Canadians but some valuable lessons were learnt about beach landings.’

    Lesson No 1 was basically a rehash of a lesson that had been handed out time and time again: do not in any circumstances be a dominion soldier under British command.

  6. Bishop and Morrison misrepresented discussions they had held with the Indonesians during the election. Bishop has subsequently misrepresented the contents and quality of several meetings with her Indonesian counterpart.

    Why would we believe anything Morrison says now?

    No surprises
    No excuses
    No lies
    You can trust me.

  7. Bw

    [Sheridan used to be one of our better foreign affairs commentators.]

    I’ve always thought he was, to use a Shorn, a ‘dickhead’.

  8. joe c @3099

    False accusations?

    The misuse of Allowances doesn’t appear to have been false.

    I don’t think the alleged actions by Slipper in relation to Ashby have been proven to be false in anyway – just whether or not the actions constituted harrassment is still subject to an appeal.

    Slipper had nice way of SMSing about females, didn’t he.

    How many FP votes did Slipper actually get?

  9. Tricot
    Posted Saturday, October 5, 2013 at 3:19 pm | Permalink

    Dieppe was terrible for the Canadians but some valuable lessons were learnt about beach landings.

    Unfortunately, the price was paid in human lives.

    ——————————————— Actually Tricot – there is a DVD that I MUST get –

    WWII Top Secret: Dieppe Uncovered

    This review :

    Was the Allied disaster at Dieppe on 19 August 1942 the worse loss of World War II, or was it a cover for one of the greatest special operations attempted-failures of all time? February 1, 1942 the Nazis changed their naval enigma coders to four rotor units making Allied U Boat intercepts impossible. This DVD provides new investigative reporting that reveals the role of the James Bond creator, Sir Ian Fleming, played in one of the greatest failed INTELL operations to obtain the new four rotor machines.

    Sounds interesting…..

  10. [3083
    Compact Crank

    One of the great strengths of the Australian Constitutional monarchy is that the GG is not subject to Democratic forces and acts independently.

    The GG appointment may not be Democratic and is subject, as you say, to the whim of the PM – but the GG acts independently of the PM once appointed.]

    The GG is there at the PM’s pleasure, and can be sacked anytime the PM chooses. The fear of pre-emptive sacking was one of the main justifications Kerr put forward in acting as he did in ’75 (or at least acting when he did).

    Appointment by a 2/3 majority vote of parliament is much harder to arbitrarily rescind, particularly on a more partisan basis, which would make the GG more secure and independent than the current system.

    The 2/3 requirement of the parliament elected model is the key to its significant superiority (as I and many others see it) over the current system.

  11. CTaR1

    Either you are a faster learner than I am or he has gone to the dogs since he became cafe mates with Abbott or a bit of both.

    His stuff around Abbott in Indonesia have been at a sort of Speers Fox News sort of standard.

  12. badcat @3110 – I’ve watched it – they structured it very well to appear to support the theory of a snatch raid for the new enigma machine – but in the mists of time I doubt we’ll ever know.

  13. my say

    I linked the article BB was referring to earlier.

    [Australians should watch the shutdown shenanigans in Washington- and soon the debt limit shenanigans – with more than the ordinary interest for matters affecting our credit, our currency and world economic growth. They could contain a harbinger of chapter two of new adversarial Australian politics.
    Tony Abbott, now that he is Prime Minister, has given the appearance of being very friendly and agreeable to all. But he is there in part because of the spectacular success of his strategy and tactics as opposition leader. There he played the total oppositionist, without the slightest interest in playing the statesman, supporting good policy no matter from where it came, or in abiding by the usual conventions of being a ”loyal” opposition.]

    Read more:

    BB’s analysis is spot on

  14. Japanese nucleur crisis
    All 70 nucleur power stations in Japan are now on shutdown
    This is a panic response to the Fukushima disaster but understandable
    This has cut the price of “yellowcake” to a new low on the world martket

    Meanwhile the Japs are using Gas for ALL power requirements including gas operated power stations

    So much for the nucleur option…and the contaminated water is still pouring into the northern Pacific

    Recently in California there was alarm when we were there over many items washing up on beaches that have been contaminated by the Jap disaster..and made their way all that distance,,,including a small boat
    try nopt to swin there

  15. BW

    [While the numbers are war numbers, the murder list could be up to around half a million people:

    The wiki reference is to Rudy Rummell (no relation to anyone here) who has a particular anti-communist historiographic axe to grind. I’d be very cautious about his work before offering it up.

    In these matters, it’s always hard to get reliable figures and so even someone with a desperate desire to get to the truth of the matter would struggle to determine exact numbers. Rummell is no such man however.

    It seems likely that 2 million Vietnamese died in the conflict, and I’ve absolutely no doubt that a good many of them were murdered by those associated more or less with the VC/NVA forces. People use such conflicts to settle scores and gain personal advantage in circumstances where they know that they probably won’t be held accountable.

    Of course, as noted, there was a murder for hire program run by the US/ARVN going, and once you do that, lots of people are going to take up the bounty offered.

    So the question then becomes one of allocating distal responsibility. Plainly those who either frustrate the development of a bona fide civil authority, or tear one down must accept principal responsibility for the consequences of the absence of the rule of law — and that, plainly, was not the VC/NVA — but the US. They broke the country in the most direct and egregious way, and you can scarcely blame the targets of their mayhem for responding as one does in times when people are making up the rules as they go along.

  16. The LNP. and it’s supporters..: Authoritarian fascists…get out the jackboots, get out the black-shirts, get out the “hymn-book” and goose-step your way to infamy!

  17. Dieppe – There’s a very decent book by Robin Neillands simply called ‘The Dieppe Raid: The Story of the Disastrous 1942 Expedition’.

  18. deblonay @3116

    And Australia is one of the largest LNG suppliers in the global market and has massive growth potential but the Greenies want to shut it down.

  19. [3079


    Just brilliant from Tom. I have not been a fan but I am coming around.]

    One of the sharpest and wittiest thorns to ever lodge itself in the side of establishment hypocrisy. His lyrics are as close to perfection as I have ever heard.

    My favourites are:

    Werner von Braun
    I Got It From Agnes
    I Wanna Go Back to Dixie
    Be Prepared
    Poisoning Pigeons In The Park
    The Elements
    The Vatican Rag
    Silent E (a kids’ song, but brilliant wordplay)

    Should all be on Youtube. The live stuff with the spoken intros are usually the best versions. 🙂

  20. CTar1
    Posted Saturday, October 5, 2013 at 3:39 pm | Permalink

    Dieppe – There’s a very decent book by Robin Neillands simply called ‘The Dieppe Raid: The Story of the Disastrous 1942 Expedition’.

    Thanks CTari ….. will look into it – it certainly was an unmitigatted disaster – but as Tricot said – many lessons were learned – and ultimately many lives were saved as a result at the later D-Day landings ….

  21. Boerwar:

    PvO’s article today tells us that Scott Morrison wasn’t happy with some of Abbott’s hysterical rhetoric on boats. I can’t remember him informing us about these tensions prior to the election.

  22. badcat

    Thanks CTari ….. will look into it – it certainly was an unmitigatted disaster – but as Tricot said – many lessons were learned – and ultimately many lives were saved as a result at the later D-Day landings ….


    I should add – the lessons were not fully learned by the Americans – who choose to land at Omaha Beach without the tanks etc etc that the Brits and Canadians did. Surely the first 30 minutes of “Saving Private Ryan” is one of the most gut wrenching film put on record of what war is all about ….

  23. Totally off any kind of topic, but the Dieppe raid was meant to be just that, not a full scale invasion.

    It is significant that on the D-Day beaches Sappers/Commandos were put ashore to bring samples of sand back to the UK for analysis so the bogging of allied tanks was not repeated.

    Whether fighting under the flag of the Old Empire was for good or bad, doesn’t matter now.

    It is unlikely ever to happen this way again. We are now firmly entrenched in the US Sphere of Influence and have been so for the last 70 years.

    Our engagement in Iraq and Afghanistan is proof positive of who blows the whistle.

    Add to that the full weight of the Murdoch press both here and in the US talking up “patriotic duty” and we might even see the conservatives bring back National Service.

    They are, after all, taking us back to the 50s – the 1850s.

  24. confessions @3127 – vanInsolent’s piece was tawdry amalgam of speculation and misinterpretation.

    Why would you expect a Shadow Cabinet Minister to talk publicly about a minor policy disagreement they have with a LOTO? – they aren’t the ALP.

  25. One of the great tragedies of WWII was the refusal of the Americans to land Armour in the first waves on Omaha beach and their disdain for the D-Day Funnies as the British Special Engineering Armoured Vehicles were called.

  26. [Why would you expect a Shadow Cabinet Minister to talk publicly about a minor policy disagreement they have with a LOTO?]
    PvO is not, and never was a shadow cabinet minister.

  27. Confessions @3133 – I interpretted your “him” @3127 to refer to Minister Morrison. Clearly I was wrong and i apoligise for the misinterpretation.

    A Journalist isn’t going to last long if they just blurt out everything they are told in confidence – but we do not know if what vanInsolent has stated was told to him directly by Minister Morison or is from another source.

  28. Confessions

    Shows how deceitful PVO is; about as reliable and trustworthy as Bolt.

    How many other “journos” have been sitting on such info before the election.

    Oh wait! They’ve just found out that “the team” is not so united.

    BTW in BNelson’s Press Club speech he gave an explanation of why Howard lost in 2007. one of the reasons he put up was that the Howard ministers had worked so hard for 11 years they were exhausted.

    Yet Pug Monkey lauds hiss as having a great ministry, including 16 howard “exhausted” has beens.

    What a jerk. The most incompetent conservo PM ever; the most incompetent PM ever.

    Now that’s a big call, but it’s true, even if I say so myself.

  29. confessions



    IMHO war makes for bad choices but it does not entirely absolve individuals for making bad choices such as murdering children in cold blood because their parents are collaboraters.


    Lucky you! Wish I had been a fly on that wall.

  30. I suspect the Oz electorate will give Abbott a “fair go” in the coming months – seeing as some 4% more than half the electorate voted for him.

    However, the time frame for “set and forget” is getting shorter all the time.

    As Old Coke Bottles has mentioned today, Abbott needs some “results” and fast.

    So far not so good.

    He will badly want the CT thing sorted yet I doubt whether the electorate at large actually gives a toss any longer.

    If some believe that there will be a real and recognisable fall of $580 in electricity bills with any change Abbott is able to make, then certain elements of the electorate will be very disappointed.

    Their disappointment will turn to disillusionment and then anger.

    He has less then three years now.

  31. confessions

    ‘PvO’s article today tells us that Scott Morrison wasn’t happy with some of Abbott’s hysterical rhetoric on boats’

    Yeah. Scoot has been a paragon of serious public policy discussion on boats. Let’s go buy some.

  32. BW

    Shouldn’t your No.3 read:

    Bribery to turn local Indonesians informant ditched by Abbott.

    And thus bump the others down the list?

  33. psyclaw:

    PvO did raise Liberal dissent within the ranks about boats prior to the election, but it was framed in the usual moderates vs rightwing stuff, ie Moylan, Washer etc.

    Given how effective Morrison was in spruiking the coalition’s boat policies, you’d think if there was any suggestion that there were fundamental disagreements between him and his leader over his portfolio, that that would be newsworthy.

    But not a peep out of the msm about it until today.

  34. badcat

    [the lessons were not fully learned by the Americans – who choose to land at Omaha Beach without the tanks etc etc]

    The Dieppe Landing was the first outing for the Churchill tank.

  35. CTar1
    Posted Saturday, October 5, 2013 at 4:11 pm | Permalink

    the lessons were not fully learned by the Americans – who choose to land at Omaha Beach without the tanks etc etc

    The Dieppe Landing was the first outing for the Churchill tank.


    The Americans DID have tanks – the DD ( duplex drive ) Shermans – which had an inflatable shroud that allowed them to “swim” in water – but on D-Day the seas were very rough and they launched them about 5000 yards from Omaha Beach – most got swamped and sank – and this cost the Americans something like 3000+ casulties ( 1500-2000 kia ) – the most of any of the beaches on D-Day


  37. Badcat –

    [which had an inflatable shroud that allowed them to “swim” in water ]

    I watched an M113 APC at Shoalwater Bay attempt exactly the same thing from too far out – back door opened and Septics bobbing in the waves.

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