Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

Essential Research offers more mediocre post-election poll ratings for the new government, together with findings on climate policy, boat arrivals, industrial relations and manufacturing.

Essential Research has the Coalition’s lead up slightly on a weak showing last week, from 51-49 to 52-48, with primary votes of 43% for the Coalition (steady), 36% for Labor (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). Findings of further questions:

• “Direct action” is favoured over carbon pricing 35-31, reversing a 39-29 lead for carbon pricing in May. Support for carbon pricing is down from 43% to 39% with opposition up to 43% to 47%.

• Support for the government’s decision to cease issuing statements when asylum boats arrive is at 39% – surprisingly high, to my mind – with opposition at 48%.

• The re-establishment of the Australian Building and Construction Commission is supported by 29% and opposed by 22%, with the rest down for either no view or don’t know.

• There are also questions on manufacturing which suggest respondents to be broadly supportive of protectionism.

Meanwhile, buttons have been pressed today for Senate contests in Victoria, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory, which you can read about in the Senate counting thread a few posts below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,183 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. CC –

    Appointing a President by Parliament is completely different to the current system of appointing the GG.

    And does this mean that it’s legitimate for you to claim, as you did, that the proposed President is at all like the US President?

  2. CC –

    jackol @2997 – Abbott has never said boats would be towed back.

    Bullshit. I just showed you that he did not back away from Michael Keenan’s clear statements when asked about them.

  3. Why don’t we do what the Canadians did… change the flag and stop whinging about the Monarch?

    AFAIK we don’t send the poms any money for the Queen anymore, so other than having her mug on our coins our links to the Monarch will be nothing but ceremonial

  4. And worse, he blatantly lied in saying that “tow backs” have never been Coalition policy. Clearly “tow backs” were included in Coalition policy if Keenan talked about it, and when asked about it Abbott didn’t say “Sorry to correct you there Steve, but “tow backs” have never been Coalition policy. Michael Keenan must have been confused or mis-spoke.”

    And to have the nerve to blame media fabrication for the impression that “tow backs” were Coalition policy is … astonishing.

  5. Of course if we elect a president we will all have to drive on the right hand side of the road. I think the French do that too.

  6. [David Cameron I’ve written to PM Letta, offering my deepest sympathy as Italy has a day of mourning for those who died off Lampedusa yesterday]

  7. The notion that the Coalition would be “towing back” boats was all over the news in June, including from the most Coalition-friendly outlets going. Christopher Pyne point-blank confirmed on Lateline that this was an accurate reading of his party’s policy. Nobody from the Coalition gave the slightest intimation that this was wrong at the time, despite having every opportunity in the world to do so. It is crystal clear that the Coalition, having encountered the difficulty of Labor bending over backwards to match it on asylum seeker policy, deliberately sought to communicate the idea that when in office they would do to boats what Labor still lacked the cojones to do – physically drag them back to Indonesia.

    Now they’re in government though, where it’s not enough to be all talk, they are forced to confront the actual reality that they and everybody with any insight at all into the subject knew all along – that the policy is a load of nonsense. So what do they do? Simple. Lie. Pretend that what happened, and which any moron could see happening, actually didn’t happen at all. They can at least be confident that sections of the media will be on their side. Andrew Bolt, who had every opportunity to say the notion was wrong at the time, suddenly discovers on the day Morrison declares it to be so that it was simply a lie being peddled by “leftist journalists”. And obviously, many in blog-land are dopey enough to follow wherever he and the Coalition lead them.

  8. It is proposing an Elected President – that is moving towards the US system.

    Actually the proposal at the referendum was for a non-elected President, so you are still either lying or you actually have no clue and don’t bother reading even the stuff put to you on a silver platter.

    More to the point, why is it moving “towards the US system” and not “towards the Irish system” or one of the other many Presidents around the world.

    And you can’t justify, in the slightest, linking Republican sentiment here to the dysfunction of the US system because you can’t point to a single thing that a potential Australian President would have in common with the US president – apart from being called the “President”!

    Lies and bullshit are all you’ve got.

  9. Giap was in charge of targetted, systematic, and large-scale murder that make out (the Alliance’s) efforts in Afghanistan look small.

    There would be quite a few family survivors of his death- grows-from-the-barrel-of-a-gun persuasion techniques who would be quietly grateful that he is dead.

    Many of us oldies will recall the famous footage of the Saigon chief of police shooting an unarmed captive Viet Cong in the head. What is far less commonly known is the the latter had just helped murder the entire family of the former.

    I think this may have during Tet – probably Giap’s most notable military failure cum strategic political success.

  10. William,

    Australia is free to tow back boats, just not into Indonesian waters. This is where Labor seem to be having comprehension issues.

    Nowhere did Abbott say we were towing boats back into Indonesian waters.

  11. The proposal for an elected president is setting us up for the kind of madness the USA has at the moment. I can never see what anyone can see as a positive can come out of having an elected president. It would be a shitfight like they have in votes for President of the local footy club, x 1000.

  12. CC –

    You’ll have to take that up with Keenan – who is not the PM or Cabinet.

    He’s the Justice Minister now, and was shadow at the time. Obviously inconsequential and uninformed or confused as to what LNP policy was at the time. Yeah, right.

    And he is not the only example, but his interview is apposite because Abbott was quizzed directly about these comments in the link I provided (and which is hosted on the Liberal party website).

    It was portrayed as LNP policy, and now they are lying (and Abbott himself is lying) about it.

  13. William @3012

    Given the limited amoutn of time a political party gets to put it’s message out in the media each day is it really a high priority to spend precious resources correcting a minor misintepretation that doesnot significantly detract or misrepresent the overall policy?

    “Stop the Boats” – “Turn back the Boats” were the official messages – can’t say I’d be wasting time quibbling over being misrepresented by a “tow back the boats” message from outside the Coalition.

  14. Nowhere did Abbott say we were towing boats back into Indonesian waters.

    Keenan said it, as just one example, and Abbott supported Keenan’s version of what Coalition policy was at the time.

  15. My position may not be rational (on the prez issue)but it is my reaction. I think we as a nation would more likely end uo emulating the USA rather than Ireland. After all, our kids are adopting yank accents, not Irish brogue.

  16. Surprise No 1 Turn back the boats has been ditched by Abbott.
    Surprise No 2 Buy back the boats has been ditched by Abbott.
    Surprise No 3 Joyce publicly supports Indonesian purchase of Australian farmland.
    Surprise No 4 MacFarlane provides financial support to the Holden.
    Surprise No 5 Hockey seeks to reduce debt by seeking to avoid counting infrastructure debt as ‘debt’ in the national accounts.
    Surprise No 6 When all those Coalition figures said, ‘Tow back the boats’ they meant ‘Not tow back the boats.
    ————————————–

    Surprise No 7 – Hockey is borrowing millions because there is a budget emergency

    On number 6 – Abbott when having a radio interview stated that his policy would be the same as Howards which successfully towed back 11(?) boats. When quizzed Abbott did not deny tow the boats back was a part of the policy. Well not until after the election. Prior to the election is was better to let the voters think it was a policy – that called deception by exclusion. Abbott knew that the voters believed it was a part of his policy but he did nothing to dispel that belief, until after the election.

    Pyne also mentioned towing boats back.

  17. CC@2984

    You obviously did not read, missed or totally ignored our esteemed host’s refutation of the “the tow back is a leftie lie” line espoused by one of your other comrades from the right here yesterday.

    The comment from the Liberal policy interconnected both tow back and send back to Indonesian waters, not just out of Australian waters.

    Unfortunately I did not bookmark the comment at the time, but I am sure someone else is more than happy to give it to you straight from the horse’s mouth.

    Whether it is/was technically “Liberal Policy” I do not know but the Liberal spokesperson was sure as hell convincing that it was.

  18. I always interpreted the comment towing back boats to Indonesia, meaning to the edge of their waters.

    I never expected the HMAS Sydney to be chugging into the Port of Jakarta with a asylum seeker boat in tow

  19. CC – spinning like a top –

    “tow back the boats” message from outside the Coalition.

    How is it “from outside the Coalition”, when it’s coming directly from Keenan or Pyne or others of the Coalition frontbench?

    Given the limited amoutn of time a political party gets to put it’s message out in the media each day is it really a high priority to spend precious resources correcting a minor misintepretation that doesnot significantly detract or misrepresent the overall policy?

    Right, so now you say it’s a “minor misintepretation(sic)”, so you must think Abbott is totally wrong when he says:

    There’s a world of difference between turning boats around in Australian waters and the Australian navy towing them back to Indonesia, there’s just a world of difference, and, if I may say so, there’s been a tendency of people to put to other people what is not the Coalition’s policy in an attempt to, I think, generate a headline rather than constructively address this issue

    CC “minor misinterpretation”
    Tony Abbott “world of difference”

  20. Boerwar – I was well aware of what Giap had done – but if it came from me it would, of course, be right wing crap.

    Thank you for educating PBer’s on the evilness of the hero of Fran Barlow and so many other leftists.

  21. CC – more bullshit –

    Jackol 23014 – requiring 75% of Parliament is an election.

    Yes, because the American president is elected by members of Congress. I can see how having MPs vote for the President is just like what the Americans do. Oh wait.

  22. Puff

    Yep, Director Nelson did state that he had invited PJK to make the Occasional Speech at the upcoming centenary.

    Dr Nelson is an astute man, obviously.

  23. The apologists for the lies rAbbott, his supporters, his political team and media supporters allowed are worse than the actual liar.

  24. [Given the limited amoutn of time a political party gets to put it’s message out in the media each day is it really a high priority to spend precious resources correcting a minor misintepretation that doesnot significantly detract or misrepresent the overall policy?]

    Or as you’re quite happy to put it when the shoe is on the other foot, all politicians do these days is lie and spin.

  25. Aha! CC@2984

    I see our esteemed host has gone one step further today @3012 and called the change of policy a “lie”.

    What has happened is that you and others have swallowed, hook line and sinker the whole thing about the “leftie lie” which suggests you are no more non-partisan than those from the left you accuse of lying.

  26. CC

    ‘Boerwar – I was well aware of what Giap had done – but if it came from me it would, of course, be right wing crap.’

    Of course if it had come from you it would have been right wing crap because that is all you can do.

  27. Brendan Nelson is another of those politicians who was not necessarily a natural-born Liberal. He was, infamously, an ALP member and (if I am not creating false memories) had sought preselection for the ALP at some time?

    He was a Lib moderate, that dying breed, and as Lib moderates go he wasn’t so bad. Useless as leader, of course, but hey.

  28. So Tism understood tow back to mean taking/ towing/ pushing/ boats back to the edge of Australian waters.

    At that place, the boats would ??????????

    Now do they sink, voluntarily return to Indonesia, set sail for Iran or SriLanka or Iran or Iraq or Afghanistan ?????

  29. William is crossing swords with Tism.

    Great!

    Hope he persists, thereby learning how very difficult it is not to refer to Tism as a dickhead.

  30. william @3035 – I believe you will find me as having said on a number fo occasions in the past that everything is politics. For a politician everything they do or do not do has a political element to it.

  31. Well, there you go.

    In opposition say anything you like to anyone.

    In government = minor detail.

    Funny how whole forests of trees were used to keep telling us about the CT “lie” but lying about tow back is merely an adjustment to a minor peccadillo/misunderstanding.

    The two comrades from the right, totally blown out of the water and their boats by parroting Their Master’s Voice.

  32. So what is Hockey doing to address the budget “emergency”?

    Borrowing more, millions more.
    But what is the truth about the Hockey budget ’emergency’?

    In releasing the budget outcome for 2012-13, Treasurer Joe Hockey and Finance Minister Mathias Cormann have revealed a range of very interesting records on the budget and fiscal policy not just for 2012-13, but going back to 1970-71.

    One of the first things to note is the fact that the budget deficit fell to 1.2 per cent of GDP in 2012-13, 1.7 per cent of GDP lower than the 2011-12 deficit. This is the largest year-to-year fall in the budget deficit ever recorded.

  33. Boerwar
    Posted Saturday, October 5, 2013 at 1:52 pm | Permalink

    Giap was in charge of targetted, systematic, and large-scale murder that make out (the Alliance’s) efforts in Afghanistan look small.

    ———————————–
    Can I suggest 2 books :

    The Phoenix Program ( Douglas Valentine ) – the CIA’s computerised assassination and torture program in Vietnam ….

    Kill Anything That Move ( Nick Turse ) – an account of American crimes – homicide, murder,mutilation and rape – in Vietnam

    I dont think WE were too squeaky clean on our side in Vietnam either

  34. [I always interpreted the comment towing back boats to Indonesia, meaning to the edge of their waters.]

    Yes, but you are after all a complete Coalition koolaid drinking twit. Whatever sh$t sandwich Peta requires you to consume you apparently wolf down with gusto.

    Tony Abbott has lied with malice aforethought on the issue of Boats. And been caught out badly. He is a hypocrite.

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