Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

Essential Research offers more mediocre post-election poll ratings for the new government, together with findings on climate policy, boat arrivals, industrial relations and manufacturing.

Essential Research has the Coalition’s lead up slightly on a weak showing last week, from 51-49 to 52-48, with primary votes of 43% for the Coalition (steady), 36% for Labor (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). Findings of further questions:

• “Direct action” is favoured over carbon pricing 35-31, reversing a 39-29 lead for carbon pricing in May. Support for carbon pricing is down from 43% to 39% with opposition up to 43% to 47%.

• Support for the government’s decision to cease issuing statements when asylum boats arrive is at 39% – surprisingly high, to my mind – with opposition at 48%.

• The re-establishment of the Australian Building and Construction Commission is supported by 29% and opposed by 22%, with the rest down for either no view or don’t know.

• There are also questions on manufacturing which suggest respondents to be broadly supportive of protectionism.

Meanwhile, buttons have been pressed today for Senate contests in Victoria, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory, which you can read about in the Senate counting thread a few posts below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,183 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. confessiosn @2944 And I’m amazed at how out of touch an apparently intelligent person such as yourself can be with the main stream of Australian society.

    If Bolt wasn’t so in touch with main stream Australiains he wouldn’t have a highly succesful blog, a job as a columnist and his own TV Show.

  2. If Bolt wasn’t so in touch with main stream Australiains he wouldn’t have a highly succesful blog, a job as a columnist and his own TV Show.

    And B A Santamaria had his own TV show and newspaper column because he was “so in touch with main stream Australians”.

  3. Jackol @2946 As I said before – if you want to argue about particulate pollution and noxious gases – go your hardest – but don’t try the AGW Catastrophist tactic of linking it to AGW outcomes that they’ve starting trying since they realised they are losing the AGW debate.

  4. CC

    I was providing only a skeletal paradigm …… I wanted to avoid confusing conservo fundamentalists unaccustomed to higher order thought.

    The role of other aspects / entities in the ecosphere is obviously a consideration, just as it was pre industrial revolution. But can they cope with exponentially increasing quantities of toxics!

    If we knew that they could, and how, we could develop a “direct action” plan that made sense, unlike your mob’s.

    As to economic issues, when push comes to shove, try breathing or eating lucre.

  5. Jackol @2948 – OK then – you tell me what a President is supposed to do and how they are going to do it.

    And how is the proposed model of Government supposed to be better than the current one in terms of efficiency and effectiveness?

  6. CC –

    Jackol @2946 As I said before – if you want to argue about particulate pollution and noxious gases – go your hardest – but don’t try the AGW Catastrophist tactic of linking it to AGW outcomes that they’ve starting trying since they realised they are losing the AGW debate.

    Unicorn! Unicorn! Unicorn!

    You were the one who said this:

    (not to mention the environmental impact of the bird chompers and impact of visual pollution or the toxic waste issue from solar cell production) – for zero measurable impact on the environment.

    I was responding to this to compare an equivalent fossil fuel source for other environmental impacts. You can’t criticize wind/solar for “bird chomping” “visual pollution” “toxic waste” without acknowledging the vastly greater damage done through fossil fuel extraction and burning, and this has nothing to do with the AGW debate.

    And you didn’t respond to any of the substantive points in my post. You must have no answers, unsurprisingly.

  7. victoria
    Posted Saturday, October 5, 2013 at 12:53 pm | Permalink
    badcat

    Just went over to Amazon books. Saw this title as well. Have you read this?

    “LBJ: The Mastermind of JFK’s Assassination”

    ————————————–

    Hi Victoria – I have not read that book as yet ….will do so soon

    I can also recommend a book by Joseph P Farell :

    “LBJ and the Conspiracy To Kill Kennedy”

    …. he nails it …. I got this off Amazon too ….

    … another of his books

    “Reich Of The Black Sun” ….. very controversial – its an account of Germanys secret weapons in WW2 – he contends the Germans actually had – and used in Russia – a small version of the atomic bomb

  8. Not only is Bolt an exceptionally gifted climate researcher, hundreds of thousands of fellow climate scientists read his every peer-reviewed publication.

  9. [Bolt is actually an exceptional climate scientist.]

    Anyone who can work ‘particulate pollution’ into a blog post is especially awesome!

  10. CC

    Puhlease don’t try to downplay Bolt. There is no need for false modesty.

    Bolt knows MORE AND BETTER things about climate than 97% of the world’s climate scientists.

  11. CC

    ‘Boerwar appears to still be on a bender after 7 Sep 2013.’

    You got into the personal viciousness remarkably quickly this time.

    Patience is a virtue.

  12. Boerwar

    [Boerwar appears to still be on a bender after 7 Sep 2013.’

    You got into the personal viciousness remarkably quickly this time.]

    Always the first refuge of one who has no foundation……..

  13. CC –

    Jackol @2948 – OK then – you tell me what a President is supposed to do and how they are going to do it.

    You were the one asserting that the ALP and the ARM were proposing a President with the powers of the US President, when that is clearly not the case.

    More bogus crap from you.

    The proposal that was voted on, as you should well know if you’re running around asserting what it is that the ALP and ARM were proposing, was a minimalist change with the President taking over the role and powers of the GG. No more, no less. There was debate and division over how to appoint the President, but the powers were never at issue.

    The GG has no executive power to speak of. The President would have no executive power to speak of.

    The comparison with the US President is, as I said, intellectually lazy shite from you. Oh they’re calling the position “President” therefore that must be the same as that thing in the US called a “President”. Pfah.

    And how is the proposed model of Government supposed to be better than the current one in terms of efficiency and effectiveness?

    I doubt it would be any more or any less “efficient and effective” than the current one.

    The Republican argument is about whether the Queen should be our Head of State. You obviously feel she and her successors should continue to be so. Others disagree.

    Throwing in bogus nonsense about how any change to a “President” would turn us into the US isn’t making any sensible case.

  14. Boerwar

    BoltA is a true renaissance man. In between out sciencing the worlds leading institutions in the field of climatology he also fits in some excellent work in anthropology.

  15. Surprise No 1 ‘Turn back the boats’ has been ditched by Abbott.
    Surprise No 2 ‘Buy back the boats’ has been ditched by Abbott.
    Surprise No 3 ‘Tow back the boats’ has been ditched by Abbott.
    Surprise No 4 Joyce publicly supports Indonesian purchase of Australian farmland.
    Surprise No 5 MacFarlane provides financial support to the Holden.
    Surprise No 6 Hockey seeks to reduce debt by seeking to avoid counting infrastructure debt as ‘debt’ in the national accounts.

  16. Boerwar @2969

    Visciousness? About as viscious as a fifteen year old Shitzu-cross.

    Have you ever played competitive sport? That isn’t even a warmup sledge.

  17. Jackol @2972 – your “minimalist” model was never put to the Australian people and was never pushed by the Republican movement.

    While I personally think the Queen is a good person, I don’t hold any great attachment to the Royals – it is the current effective system of Government that I have deep concerns about moving away from.

  18. Boerwar –

    Surprise No 3 ‘Tow back the boats’ has been ditched by Abbott.

    Didn’t you get the memo?

    Can I just scotch this idea that the coalition’s policy is, or ever has been, “tow backs”.

  19. Boerwar @2974 – every single on eof your “suprises” is factually incorrect and you know it.

    If you are going to keep being so lame I will add you to the “my say” category.

  20. CC

    [Giap never beat the Australians in battle.]

    He beat the Australians’ puppet master and its ragtag coalition, of which the Australians were a part, forcing them to withdraw.

    I call that a win.

  21. Just to take a respite from the difficult task of eddicating CC, the Director of the Aus War Memorial is making to the National Press Gallery , called “Values in Changing World”.

    Interestingly he is talking about ideas, abstract matters, visions for the future in sentences, without notes, without vitriol, without “aaaaah”s.

    He is even praising some actions of the previous Labor government and the expertise of ministers.

    I hope the Pug Monkey is watching. The man speaking is his predecessor, save one, a man who was a “weak” LOTO.

    But of course real leaders must be Pugs, not sissy types who talk about values and ideas.

  22. CC

    Nice try at the unicorn, pal.

    Now, where were we? Oh yes, Bolt is the smartest, rightest climate scientist in the whole world. He has more peer-reviewed articles than anyone in the whole world. His understanding of climate dynamics is superior to anyone in the whole world. His understanding of the atmospheric physics is superior to anyone else in thew whole world. His understanding of atmospheric chemistry is superior to anyone else in the whole world. His understanding of ocean chemistry, heat transfer and fluid dynamics is superior to anyone else in the whole world. His understanding of climate data is superior to anyone else in the whole world. And so on and so forth. To sum up, the thousands of scientist who provide input into and who spend a huge amount of time integrating that input into the IPCC5 are just wasting their time.

    They should all just read Bolt. Truly.

    I am just sooooooooooo glad that Bolt deigns to take time off from doing basic research into why we shouldn’t worry about atmospheric CO2 concentrations so that he can write words of wisdom to share with the intellectual pygmies amongst his readers who couldn’t work all this stuff out for themselves.

  23. victoria
    Posted Saturday, October 5, 2013 at 1:05 pm | Permalink
    badcat

    My summer reading is now on its way to being sorted!!

    ————————————————

    🙂 …… good !!!

    If you have not read it, I can totally recommend

    ” The Untold History Of The United States”
    by Oliver Stone and Peter Kuznick

    The right-whingers hate it but …… it tells a different story to what the “official” history books say ….

  24. jackol @2978

    Towing boats back to Indonesia or Indonesian waters has never been a Coalition Policy – it was only ever ALP extremism.

    You will not be able to produce one quote by Abbott that says boats will be towed back.

  25. Given feedback I have amended the running surprise list. Are there any I have missed?

    Surprise No 1 Turn back the boats has been ditched by Abbott.
    Surprise No 2 Buy back the boats has been ditched by Abbott.
    Surprise No 3 Joyce publicly supports Indonesian purchase of Australian farmland.
    Surprise No 4 MacFarlane provides financial support to the Holden.
    Surprise No 5 Hockey seeks to reduce debt by seeking to avoid counting infrastructure debt as ‘debt’ in the national accounts.
    Surprise No 6 When all those Coalition figures said, ‘Tow back the boats’ they meant ‘Not tow back the boats.’

  26. FB @2980 – I never said the North Vietnamese did not win the war. I stated the fact that the Viet Minh and Viet Cong never defeated Australians in battle. In fact, after being soundly beaten in battle on a number of occasions they made a considered decision to leave the Australian AO alone.

  27. Compact

    [Jackol @2972 – your “minimalist” model was never put to the Australian people and was never pushed by the Republican movement]

    Incorrect. This is exactly the model the Convention put forward. The only argument was on how the President was to be elected.

  28. Giap beat the french, the americans, the south koreans and the australians.

    Who said anything about the unicorn of ‘battle’?

    The sentence is quite clear: he beat them all in war.

  29. CC –

    Jackol @2972 – your “minimalist” model was never put to the Australian people and was never pushed by the Republican movement.

    FMD

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_republic_referendum,_1999

    The model with an appointed head of state was the one endorsed by the Constitutional Convention and put forward at the referendum. It was broadly supported by both minimalist and establishment republicans, including almost all Labor and some conservative politicians.

    A proposed law: To alter the Constitution to establish the Commonwealth of Australia as a republic with the Queen and Governor-General being replaced by a President appointed by a two-thirds majority of the members of the Commonwealth Parliament.

    If I have misrepresented the model ‘put to the Australian people’ or ‘pushed by the Republican movement’ perhaps you can point out where I might have done so.

    While I personally think the Queen is a good person, I don’t hold any great attachment to the Royals – it is the current effective system of Government that I have deep concerns about moving away from.

    You are entitled to your deep concerns. You are not entitled to fabricate what the ALP and the ARM have, in recent times, advocated in terms of Australia becoming a republic.

  30. CC

    Come on mate!

    Don’t shoot down your total credibility by linking your thoughts, words or actions in any way to Bolt.

    Readers will dismiss you as a complete joke if you hook your wagon to the likes of him.

    Do you really want to be seen as a Tism!

  31. William,

    while you laugh… probably because ray is a right winger, can you name 1 previous immigration minister who did a regular weekly interview on radio or any other media?

    Certainly now Chris Bowen who only seemed to pop his head up on announcing yet another boatpeople disaster.

  32. Anyone ever sent a contra email to Hadley.

    He’s got a template reply that comes back in a flash “get on with your basket weaving”.

    Accountable. FFS.

  33. CC –

    Towing boats back to Indonesia or Indonesian waters has never been a Coalition Policy – it was only ever ALP extremism.

    So, when Michael Keenan said http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a55I1Vz5EWk :

    It’s not towing boats out to sea, it’s towing boats back to where they came from

    That was only ever ALP extremism.

    And when Abbott, asked explicitly about the above comments of Michael Keenan’s the next day, said http://www.liberal.org.au/latest-news/2011/10/05/tony-abbott-interview-steve-price :

    STEVE PRICE:

    I notice the Opposition spokesman Michael Keenan last night on Sky talking again about towing boats back to Indonesia. Is that really a viable option?

    TONY ABBOTT:

    It’s happened before and…

    STEVE PRICE:

    So you would intercept boats in international waters, check that they are seaworthy and try and either convince them to turn around and go back from where they came or attach a rope and tow them back?

    TONY ABBOTT:

    Well, as I said Steve, I’m not going to get into the precise operational details because that would be a matter for the commanders on the spot but it’s been done in the past, successfully done in the past and what was done in the past can be done again in the future.

    Tony Abbott must have been dazzled by the bright lights in the studio and become confused because he didn’t clarify that “tow backs” were never Coalition policy, and:

    There’s a world of difference between turning boats around in Australian waters and the Australian navy towing them back to Indonesia, there’s just a world of difference, and, if I may say so, there’s been a tendency of people to put to other people what is not the Coalition’s policy in an attempt to, I think, generate a headline rather than constructively address this issue

  34. well if you have an open mind and listen to the radio interview, you’ll find you actually get a lot more details on what is going on than at the official OSB presser.

    For example Indians who were taken to Darwin will be flown right back and those who came from West Papua have been sent to PNG for resettlement, including the numbers.

    Much more informative than someone from the guardian demanding to know if a boat has been turned back yet.

  35. Jackol @2991

    Appointing a President by Parliament is completely different to the current system of appointing the GG.

    Funny how the unintended consequences of CO2 emmissions are so “important” but the potential unintended consequences of changing the system of government are nothing to worry about.

  36. Nelson just said that the greatest ever speech by an Australian PM was by Menzies (nup), Howard (nup), Fraser (nup), some other conservo PM (nup).

    It was by PJK in November 1993 in his eulogy to the Unknown Australian Soldier.

    As i write comes the first question from a journo ….. Question preceded by a comment “your speech today has made me think hard about what government you actually were a minister in (conservo or progressive Labor)

    Nelson just smiles …… Clearly not a supporter of the Pug Monkey or his mob of unethical, incompetent rabble.

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