Yet another review of late counting, together with a few other things:
• With McEwen continuing to slip from the Liberals’ grasp, the only remaining lower house seat in doubt is Fairfax, where Clive Palmer received a very handy fillip yesterday when provisional votes pushed his lead out from three to 98. Follow the action here.
• Then there are the Senate races in Western Australia and Tasmania, which are unlikely to become clear until the below-the-line data entry is completed and the button pushed to calculate the outcome (there’s a dedicated thread for Senate counting here, although it’s not doing much business). In the former case, there are probably two seats which hinge on absurdly trivial combinations of micro-party votes and whether they work to the advantage of Australian Sports Party candidate Wayne Dropulich – the fates of Labor and Greens incumbents Louise Pratt and Scott Ludlam as much involved as those of Dropulich and the other potential micro-party winner, Zhenya Wang of the Palmer United Party. The early test for Dropulich is whether he stays ahead of the Rise Up Australia party (0.29%) after his own votes (0.22%) are supplemented by preferences from Australian Voice (0.09%), which has been touch-and-go but has improved for Dropulich on today’s counting. As TruthSeeker observes, Dropulich then needs for the current 183-vote lead of Australian Christians over Shooters & Fishers at Count 21 to hold, which it may not do when below-the-line votes are taken into account. Failing that, Dropulich could be saved if, at Count 19, Help End Marijuana Prohibition failed to hold its present 117-vote lead over the Animal Justice Party, for reasons which would do your head in. On any scenario in which Dropulich wins, the other seat looks set to go to Scott Ludlam of the Greens. If he fails, Zhenya Wang will be joined by Louise Pratt rather than Ludlam, as the Palmer United Party’s direction of preferences to the Greens ahead of Labor would no longer be a factor.
• For Tasmania, Kevin Bonham has the various scenarios neatly laid out in a flow chart, two of which (the final seat going to third Liberal Sally Chandler or Jacqui Lambie of the Palmer United Party) are rated more likely than the others (the win for Robbie Swan of the Sex Party currently projected by Antony Green’s calculator and, with a particularly small chance, a win for Family First). So far as the projection of Antony Green’s calculator is concerned, the trend of counting is towards Robbie Swan of the Sex Party in his fight to stay ahead of the third Labor candidate at Count 21. He took the lead on Tuesday, and it has since gradually opened to 382. However, Bonham’s rough calculation is that it will need to be more like 800 to save him from below-the-line vote leakage. Of the many absurdities in this state of affairs, I have two favourites. One is that the Liberals need the Labor vote to be as high as possible to help ensure Swan’s exclusion, which presumably means Liberal scrutineers are fighting with Labor ones to ensure potential Labor votes are included in the count. The second, noted by Kevin Bonham, is that voters confusing the Liberal Democrats with the Liberals is actually to the Liberals’ advantage, as they have various paths to victory which involve the Liberal Democrats staying ahead of the Palmer United Party or Family First, while their own vote total is essentially academic at this stage.
• Australian Workers Union national secretary Paul Howes was thought by many to have jumped the gun yesterday when he refuted media speculation he might replace Bob Carr in the Senate, given Carr is yet to announce any intention on that front. However, the universal expectation that it will be so is indicated by jockeying to fill the spot. Troy Bramston of The Australian reports that Carr wishes to be succeeded by Graeme Wedderburn, who has been his chief-of-staff both as Premier and Foreign Minister. However, it is today reported that state secretary Jamie Clements has called for the position to go to Deborah O’Neil, who lost her seat of Robertson at the September 7 election, pleading affirmative action. Graeme Wedderburn held senior positions with Westpac and Origin Energy following Carr’s retirement as Premier in 2005, before being lured back to the job by Nathan Rees in 2009 in part by the promise of a Senate seat down the track. However, he was denied a vacancy at the 2010 election due to an arrangement in which Matt Thistlethwaite, who is now entering the lower house as Peter Garrett’s successor in Kingsford-Smith, was given a Senate seat to ease him out of the state secretary position.
• At the beginning of what promises to be a bumper season of electoral reform debate, the Electoral Council of Australia and New Zealand offers a paper on Internet voting in Australian electoral systems. A trailblazer on this score has been Estonia, which has provided for voting over the internet at national elections since 2007, and allowed for voting over mobile phones at the 2011 election, at which the overall take-up rate was nearly a quarter of all votes cast. However, simplifying matters somewhat in Estonia’s case is its national identity card. The paper observes that survey research by the Western Australian Electoral Commission found satisfaction that internet voting would be secured had increased from a third of all respondents in 2005 to a half in 2013. Electronic voting more broadly, including “kiosk” voting conducted within polling stations, is spruiked as offering lower costs, improved formality, more accurate capture of preferences (trials with overseas personnel in 2007 found a higher take-up rate for below-the-line voting), and opportunities for assisting vision-impaired or non-English speaking voters.
• I’ve had too little to say on the Labor leadership election process, of which I’m all in favour, but there’s a useful review of the New Zealand and British precendents from David Donaldson in Crikey.
• Six months out from the state election, there was an EMRS opinion poll from Tasmania out yesterday, which you can read all about in the post below.
• Another new post directly below deals with the state by-election for Miranda in New South Wales, to be held on October 19.
[The rate of the GST is fine at 10% but there is a strong economic argument for it to be broadened.]
I think at the very least any tax system review should look at the GST – the shameless scaremongering should be ignored by a mature government.
Stop the obsessions!
“@InsidersABC: Both ALP leadership contenders @AlboMP & @billshortenmp are on #insiders on Sunday + panel @dwabriz @JacquelineMaley & Piers Akerman”
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@240
Puff, you have completely lost the plot and I suggest you get help.
I am not at all happy to be in opposition and put in my best effort working for 2 ALP members to try to prevent a Lib victory. What were you doing, weeping and polishing the turd of the failed Gillard leadership?
Rudd will get on with his job representing his electorate in parliament and joining in the attack on the Abbott govt.
Good quality women like Penny Wong and Tanya Plibersek will play a key leadership role in the opposition and a future ALP Govt.
bemused, what is he misrepresenting? You said, again with a straight face, that Rudd has pledged to support a new leader, as though that is worth more than the hot air Rudd used to make the statement. Henry then reminded you just how worthless Rudd’s words are by reminding you of a past commitment to support and even defend Gillard’s leadership. That is the point, but to avoid it you are resorting to arguing over irrelevant, trivial details.
Although expected, still depressing when it is put in these terms 🙁
[Mark Butler
Abbott’s move to disband the CEFC shows the LNPs complete disdain for #renewable energy & the 24,000 workers it employs #Auspol #AbbottCuts]
ArchCC
Posted Friday, September 20, 2013 at 11:36 am | Permalink
Land tax increases are politically toxic. Just ask Bob Carr
——————————————————-
WA Liberal Premier Colon Barnett just introduced land tax after it had been abolished.
I seem to recall it was one of the taxes that was to be done away with as part of the Howard GST deal with the states.
Noting that Colon was the WA Liberal Treasurer at the time who signed the deal on behalf of WA
@steveUsername1: IMF says global subsidies to fossil fuels amount to $1.9 trillion a year … http://t.co/gn2g56yvre via @grist #auspol
[That is the point, but to avoid it you are resorting to arguing over irrelevant, trivial details.]
Of course he is. The sole reason bemused comments here is to bicker with us.
Want more revenue?
Abbott is quite happy to decrease the subsidies for car manufacturing but the subsidies to the mining industry are in the billions.
The fuel subsidy alone is between $2-4billion depending whose numbers you look at
Vic
I quite like the Jesuits. At least they value knowledge.
Laura Tingle is worth a read, as always.
http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/abbott_disconcerting_night_of_the_cpT7ISX2Sn3zr9IvDL9YsJ
Liberal thinking on Climate Change
AA
ALabor government should drop those subsidies. Appeasing the miners did Labor no favours
McFarlane promises to wimp out and continue to throw public money at a dead industry.
[FEDERAL Industry Minister Ian Macfarlane is confident he can save Holden and will “arm wrestle” Treasurer Joe Hockey to secure the funding required to keep the Adelaide car assembly line running until at least 2022.]
PMTA on GST.
“I said no changes and I meant it but the states made me do it”
dio
I will raise the ire of some here, but all my children have attended a Jesuit secondary college
guytaur
Posted Friday, September 20, 2013 at 11:51 am | Permalink
AA
ALabor government should drop those subsidies. Appeasing the miners did Labor no favours
================================================
My view is that they should have removed/reduced the subsidies to mining rather than the MRRT.
Though I still have trouble reconciling that there is a PRRT and the industry is booming, but a MRRT was claimed to be the death knell of mining.
[265
Diogenes
McFarlane promises to wimp out and continue to throw public money at a dead industry.
FEDERAL Industry Minister Ian Macfarlane is confident he can save Holden and will “arm wrestle” Treasurer Joe Hockey to secure the funding required to keep the Adelaide car assembly line running until at least 2022.]
Abbott is about to implement Labor policy.
Diogenes
Posted Friday, September 20, 2013 at 11:48 am | Permalink
Vic
I quite like the Jesuits. At least they value knowledge.
———————————————
explain Abbott if this is so
triton@255
Thee was only one coup and that was in June 3010, so what is ‘coup number 2’ he refers to?
A new leader will have legitimacy and not be simply a stooge installed by factional hacks. Can you see how that makes a difference?
AA
Some kids are impossible to educate!
I see Barnett is asking Abbott to bail out WA. How did he screw things up so badly?
briefly
Looks like the Libs first big backflip.
confessions
Tingle has confirmed my thinking. Abbott’s decisions to date have been his own. He is dangerous.
WA Premier Colin Barnett urges Tony Abbott to break promise on no raising of the GST http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/wa-premier-colin-barnett-urges-tony-abbott-to-break-promise-on-no-raising-of-the-gst-20130920-2u39i.html …
confessions@259
So says the numpty who invariably starts the Rudd/Gillard ball rolling each time with her vicious slanders of Rudd.
48
victoria
[I am more convinced with each passing day that Abbott is doing precisely what he intended.]
Yep, and we are only at the start of it. This is going to be very ugly.
Colin Barnet does need to explain how he lost the triple AAA rating
A booming local economy yet downgraded.
That sounds like bad management.
Just Me
Agreed. I am trying very hard to see the silver lining. But alas nothing on the horizon………
victoria:
If hers and your assumptions are correct then he is indeed dangerous.
Diogenes
Posted Friday, September 20, 2013 at 11:59 am | Permalink
AA
Some kids are impossible to educate!
I see Barnett is asking Abbott to bail out WA. How did he screw things up so badly?
————————————————–
I keep looking around to try and find where he spent all the money. All I see is the beginings of a swamp on the banks of the Swan and a bit of railway sunk in Perth
241
Diogenes
[The Catholic Church has chosen an absolutely outstanding leader in Pope Francis.]
Looking good so far, as much as religious leaders can to a lifelong atheist.
[Colin Barnet does need to explain how he lost the triple AAA rating]
He is blaming the decline of WA’s GST take, among other things.
mexicanbeemer
Posted Friday, September 20, 2013 at 12:03 pm | Permalink
Colin Barnet does need to explain how he lost the triple AAA rating
A booming local economy yet downgraded.
That sounds like bad management.
=================================================
Its in the Liberal DNA.
Unlike Howard Colon has no assets left to sell to make the budget look good
confessions
You only have to see how he conducted himself as LOTO and then leading up to the campaign. His conduct and actions are that of a calculating man.
…
confessions
Posted Friday, September 20, 2013 at 12:05 pm | Permalink
Colin Barnet does need to explain how he lost the triple AAA rating
He is blaming the decline of WA’s GST take, among other things.
====================================================
Yes he is. Somehow I don’t think the drop in GST revenue adds up to $28 billion
…
I don’t have an issue with Tone’s decision to move senior PS if he seeks an alternative policy path.
The biggest risk for the Government may come down the track for while it might be a good thing to move along those you disagree with but if it adversely effects the business unit then it could create staff retention issues.
In the world of recruitment if you can’t kept your talent then its harder to recruit talent.
victoria
Posted Friday, September 20, 2013 at 12:06 pm | Permalink
confessions
You only have to see how he conducted himself as LOTO and then leading up to the campaign. His conduct and actions are that of a calculating man.
====================================================
A calculating man who can’t use a calculator
victoria:
I’m still trying to reconcile his extreme leash and need for management with recent events.
Just scrolling through, should have known the Rudd/Gillard wars are on again, Bemused truly if you could just stop responding and TP could stop inciting thing would be a lot better
I know of a least 3 and suspect more former PBers, who won’t post while this stupidly continues. That plus too many comments from one person is just about enough to stop me also
mexicanbeemer
Posted Friday, September 20, 2013 at 12:08 pm | Permalink
I don’t have an issue with Tone’s decision to move senior PS if he seeks an alternative policy path.
The biggest risk for the Government may come down the track for while it might be a good thing to move along those you disagree with but if it adversely effects the business unit then it could create staff retention issues.
In the world of recruitment if you can’t kept your talent then its harder to recruit talent.
====================================================
its about having people in those positions who hold the same view as Abbott and his Coalition-of-Four.
this will stifle any educated debate and result in a compliant PS that dances to the Ministers tune rather than a PS that provides independent advice
Even Bolt has said Barnetts problem isn’t revenue. It’s spending too much.
To ask Abbott to raise the GST as a knee jerk response is pathetic.
What happened to “governments living within their means”.
Diog
[The Catholic Church has chosen an absolutely outstanding leader in Pope Francis.]
Just Me
[Looking good so far, as much as religious leaders can to a lifelong atheist.]
Yes, he’s actually a “real person” and not closeted but owes something to John-Paul 2 who also made significant changes in his time. And I don’t believe that anyone is really an atheist – even Gillard was “praying for Rudd’s recovery” when he had health issues a few years back.
According to the SMH poll this morning – Over 70% of respondents oppose the Coalition’s shutting down of Climate Change Commission
AA
Colin Barnett has no excuses. He has an expanded economy, sure its one thing to have a deficit but clearly the rating agencies cannot see a deficit reduction strategy.
Relying on asset sales is short termism and would be frowned upon by any sensible investor.
Clearly Barnett needs to find a way to increase economic activity which will increase revenue.
The GST can only do so much, the WA Government needs to find long term growth opportunities, surly WA has the potential, if not then that raises a serious macroeconomic policy issue.
dio
he is south American in his life time he may have seen many more
poor and neglected than the wealth that has grown in the church around Europe
but then universe may work in mysterious way s
weill pell have to do what the pope says
tony is getting a lecture from god through the pope.
quite funny realy
mari@292
The main inciter is confessions, followed by Puffy.
Take up your complaints with them.
My Say
if I was you I would be asking William to delete comment 288 especially as you are so worried about your security