Coalition 90, Labor 55, Others 5

House of Representatives numbers settled as Clive Palmer makes it over the line in Fairfax by 36 votes, pending a recount.

The AEC reports the count in Fairfax has ended with Clive Palmer 36 votes in front of Liberal National Party candidate Ted O’Brien. The scrutiny progress table still lists 107 pre-polls and seven postals as awaiting processing, but I guess these are the ones that have been “disallowed” (the numbers are about right in each case). Admitted to the count today were 304 pre-polls, which broke 178-126 to O’Brien, and 147 postals, which broke 85-62, in each case in line with the general trend of the pre-poll and postal count. That was only sufficient to chip 75 votes away from Palmer’s 111-vote margin from last night.

Assuming that result is not overturned on a recount, I would say this definitively settles the line-up of the new House of Representatives: 90 seats to the Coalition (58 Liberal, 22 Liberal National, nine Nationals and one Country Liberal), 55 to Labor, one each for the Greens, Katter’s Australian Party and the Palmer United Party, and two independents.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,044 comments on “Coalition 90, Labor 55, Others 5”

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  1. If anyone is interested. Follow the twiter feed of david donovan tonight. Seems like Samantha Maiden has again shown why News corp journos have less credibility than a used car salesman. Also,begs the question why they are so wiling to defend Abbott. Vomit inducing stuff

    https://mobile.twitter.com/davrosz

  2. [Psephos
    Posted Sunday, September 22, 2013 at 10:21 pm | Permalink

    …

    I think we proved pretty comprehensively that stopping the boats is not easy. I don’t think Abbott’s solutions will work, but ours didn’t either.
    ]

    Which is probable why your random right wing ramblings aiming for the impossible is probable pretty dam stupid.

    Politics is supposed to be dealing with the achievable. Right wing nutters aiming for the impossible are nutter no matter which party they are found in. Myself, I think Australia has wasted enough billions down that little rabbit hole. Abbotts plan of taking it off the front page would be a good plan if it would work, but it won’t unless there is bi-party support.

  3. Best plan for Labor to make boats irrelevant is find something else to fan Nationalism with. I know they tried a couple of things, but if you want those votes you’ll need to find something to make Boats seem small fry.

  4. I doubt that Abbott will progress the NDIS.

    For a man who spent time in a seminary he learnt little of christian charity and care for fellow “man”.

    In the first week of government he has slashed funding to the deaf. What chance do others with disabilities have from this shadow of a christian

  7. Iran and USA leaders to met after 34 years of hostility
    ____________________________

    The visit to the UN by the new moderate Iranian President Rouhani will give Obama the opportunity to meet him in NY City”’opening the door to negotiations on the nucleur issue

    According to leftist NY Jewish site”Mondoweiss”the Israelis and especially Netanyahu are frantic to stop this meeting..they have the support of the far-right Repugnants like McCain who want the threat of war to bring Iran to heel…but Obama seem to have decided to go ahead and put up with the outrage from the zionist both in Israel and the US,,,brave man indeed !

    ahttp://mondoweiss.net/2013/09/israel-launches-media-blitz-against-rouhani.html

  8. [ A child has died after being accidentally run over in the front yard of a Queensland home, the second fatal accident involving a small child in the state on Sunday.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-22/second-queensland-child-killed-in-accident/4973890 ]
    Before people like Chris Ulhmann and others in the media start running off at the mouth about government culpability and failure to properly implement policy, there needs to be a proper look at what has happened here so terrible events like these can be avoided in future.

  10. [Before people like Chris Ulhmann and others in the media start running off at the mouth about government culpability and failure to properly implement policy]

    No, no, that only applies with Labor governments. Now that Abbott and Newman are in power, nothing will be the fault of the government any more.

  12. Protest by the Deaf Australia organisation re Abbott’s cuts to the Deaf
    ____________________http://www.newsmaker.com.au/news/27659/abbott-government-silences-deaf-voice

  13. Re Boats and Immigration.

    Most people miss the real issue and reason why Australians are opposed to Asylum Seekers

    Its is about fairness and the millions of other refugees that are stuck in overseas camps that deserve an equal opportunity. (They are forgotten aspect that are often forgotten in the debate) It;s about “queue jumping” or seeking preferential treatment and selection and the costs involved in processing refugee claims.

    I think in general Australians support an orderly immigration policy where people are provided equal opportunity.

    The Refugee Convention is outdated and needs to be reformed. Our fist obligation is to first port of call refugees. Those that engage the services of people smugglers and cross continents are considered to be not genuine refugees.

    Personally I favour a points based regional selection ballot process where you allocat points for various aspects of an applicants plight and situation. If you are recognised and registered offshore then you get more points. The more points the greater the chances in being selected by ballot for the opportunity for resettlement in Australia. Of course you could be selected for resettlement in another state/Country. You do not get to choose.

  18. Speaking of acts of god, I find the following story interesting. Just as the influence of churches, especially the catholic one, over government is at an all time high, church attendance is at an all time low.
    [These faithful Catholics are a diminishing demographic. Fewer than one in eight Catholics attends Mass on any weekend, the lowest average in recorded Australian history, according to figures released at the weekend.

    But the church is still better off than most denominations, with Anglicans – the next biggest group – finding only 10 per cent of worshippers in church an average of at least once a month, and possibly as little as half of that going every week.]
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/a-thinning-flock-of-catholics-at-alltime-low-20130922-2u81i.html#ixzz2fd44Jr7X

    The reality is that religion is just a marker that people fill out on the census form, depending on where they went to school. But the actual number of people who are practicing christians in Australia is now very small.

    So why do we let this moralising minority try to dictate laws on abortion, gay marriage and anything else that scares them? If Labor wonders why over one million young Australians did not even bother to vote, this is one area to start.

  19. 1018

    An ad campaign, advising people to not mark a religions box unless they attend their services, next census should help.

  20. Meanwhile, we’re all screwed. And cursed with completely useless politicians in a time of crisis.

    http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-report-heralds-grave-fears-for-state-of-the-planet-20130921-2u6fk.html

    On the much reported uncertainties:

    [Sherwood strongly rejects suggestions the changes are an admission of past errors. He returns to his cancer patient analogy: if the diagnosis is the patient is going to die, but there is some uncertainty on exactly when, you do not just throw out the initial diagnosis of death.]

    Here’s the score at three-quarter time:

    [For the first time the IPCC has included an estimate of the total amount of carbon dioxide that can be emitted into the atmosphere after pre-industrial times and still maintain a good chance of keeping global warming below two degrees.

    At least half this carbon budget was already used up by 2011. And it does not include the impact of other greenhouse gases, such as methane and nitrous oxide. If it did, the budget would be much tighter.

    To keep within even this generous two-degree budget, the draft report suggests the world needs to make radical and swift cuts to greenhouse gases along the lines of the toughest future emissions reduction path considered by the IPCC.

    That would mean an average cut to emissions of 50 per cent by 2050 on 1990 levels. And by the end of the century, instead of adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, there is a good chance the world will need to find ways to draw it out.]

  22. Willuam

    I think you downplay the role of the media too much. We saw with clarity the way the media campaigned for the LNP.

    You just have to watch the mediawatch episodes on the election to see that. The media has been doing so for a long time now.

    Now it is doing it by not applying the same standard of scrutiny to the LNP in government it applied to Labor.

    So while Labor made mistakes there is no doubt they were amplified to the maximum.

    So the question is what can those people like you can do to highlight this? In your field by showing how the media narrative effects the polls perhaps.

  25. The Labor Right are not progressives, they’re barely distinguishable from the Coalition. Their bullcrap about the left being “unelectable” for a start.

  26. [Advance Summary

    1. Seat betting markets, considered by some to be highly predictive, returned an indifferent final result at the 2013 federal election, overpredicting the number of Labor losses by at least seven and predicting fourteen seats incorrectly.

    2. Better results were achieved not only by local/state projections based on polling data but also could have been achieved by a simple reading of the national polls.

    3. Seat betting markets in the final week most likely misread the election because of an overload of contradictory data. They placed too much emphasis on local-level polling and internal polling rumours and too little on national polling.]

    Thats Kevin. A rubbish effort from the bookies.

    In polls we trust.

  28. “@GhostWhoVotes: #Newspoll NSW O’Farrell LIB: Approve 46 (+5) Disapprove 38 (+1) #nswpol #auspol”

    “@GhostWhoVotes: #Newspoll NSW Robertson ALP: Approve 34 (+6) Disapprove 35 (0) #nswpol #auspol”

  29. [Meanwhile, we’re all screwed. And cursed with completely useless politicians in a time of crisis.]

    If you are seriously worried about climate change/global warming you’d come to the realisation that no matter who is in power, the Coalition or the ALP you’d be screwed either way.

    The most inconvenient truth thats much more inconvenient than Al Gores is that the Earth has a population problem.

  30. [“@GhostWhoVotes: #Newspoll NSW State Primary Votes: L/NP 49 (+2) ALP 28 (0) GRN 10 (-2) #nswpol #auspol”]

    If you’re looking for someone to blame…try NSW Labor.

  31. paaptsef

    Posted Sunday, September 22, 2013 at 11:33 pm | Permalink

    A child has died after being accidentally run over in the front yard of a Queensland home, the second fatal accident involving a small child in the state on Sunday.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-22/second-queensland-child-killed-in-accident/4973890
    ====================================================

    Tragic.

    No parent should live longer than their children. The loss of a child is the worst thing that can happen to a parent.

  32. lefty

    Yes. That stench got associated with changing leaders in government and accounts for a great part of the negative reaction to dumping Rudd and Gillard.

  34. Sean Tisme

    Posted Monday, September 23, 2013 at 12:22 am | Permalink

    Meanwhile, we’re all screwed. And cursed with completely useless politicians in a time of crisis.

    If you are seriously worried about climate change/global warming you’d come to the realisation that no matter who is in power, the Coalition or the ALP you’d be screwed either way.

    The most inconvenient truth thats much more inconvenient than Al Gores is that the Earth has a population problem.
    ====================================================

    There is a group of scientists that hold the view that humans are heading to an extinction event caused by over-population.

  35. [The Labor Right are not progressives, they’re barely distinguishable from the Coalition. Their bullcrap about the left being “unelectable” for a start.]
    I remember being struck at uni years ago how similar the mentaility of the young Liberal and young Labor members was at the time (early 80s). They were mostly dogmatic, antagonistic, unpleasant people, that felt selfrighteously justified in their antics by their belief in their cause. It wasn’t only the right though. Those ambitious for political careers on left and right were the same.

  39. NSW Labor needs to put in its leadership ballot of members only no caucus.

    This will restore a level of trust to bring NSW Labor out of the morass its in.

    Linda Birney would be excellent as one of her strengths is a public perception of integrity

  40. [NSW Labor needs to put in its leadership ballot of members only no caucus.]

    Yep, special arrangements in their case. Caucus has forfeited all right to have a say over the leadership at all.

  42. 1004
    AussieAchmed
    [I doubt that Abbott will progress the NDIS.

    For a man who spent time in a seminary he learnt little of christian charity and care for fellow “man”.

    In the first week of government he has slashed funding to the deaf. What chance do others with disabilities have from this shadow of a christian]

    Slim to none. Be lucky if we get even a Clayton’s version.

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