The AEC reports the count in Fairfax has ended with Clive Palmer 36 votes in front of Liberal National Party candidate Ted O’Brien. The scrutiny progress table still lists 107 pre-polls and seven postals as awaiting processing, but I guess these are the ones that have been “disallowed” (the numbers are about right in each case). Admitted to the count today were 304 pre-polls, which broke 178-126 to O’Brien, and 147 postals, which broke 85-62, in each case in line with the general trend of the pre-poll and postal count. That was only sufficient to chip 75 votes away from Palmer’s 111-vote margin from last night.
Assuming that result is not overturned on a recount, I would say this definitively settles the line-up of the new House of Representatives: 90 seats to the Coalition (58 Liberal, 22 Liberal National, nine Nationals and one Country Liberal), 55 to Labor, one each for the Greens, Katter’s Australian Party and the Palmer United Party, and two independents.
Mod Lib@940
They are just not valid comparisons.
Programs taking the mickey out of politicians generally are hardly comparable with a whole mini-series seeming devoted to ridiculing one person – the Prime Minister.
Polls in the German election close at 4pm, which is Midnight in eastern Australia. You can follow the results at DW: http://www.dw.de/themen/bundestagswahl-2013/s-100573
If anyone is still around I’ll provide some comments here. There’s not likely to be much drama. The best DW can do is “Noch einmal Merkel: aber mit wem?” (Once again Merkel: but with whom?)
William Bowe@915
Noted with thanks Mr Moderator. 🙂
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/09/too-much-information-mixed-performance.html
Just respamming link to my appraisal of the mixed predictive performance of seat betting markets at the most recent election – if you ever hear anyone say seat betting markets are incredibly good predictors, there’s plenty in here to wallop them with. (That said, seat betting markets did quite well until the last week or two.)
Some might think the title “Too Much Information” aptly describes my site in general. 🙂
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrZy8ornRxQ
PeeBee,
Mod Lib has the bad habit of assuming that criticisms from other people are intended to deflect from, excuse, ignore or otherwise cover up faults.
This bleeds through into Mod’s responses*, in turn leading other people to assume that Mod Lib is trying to deflect from, excuse, ignore or otherwise cover up the specific criticism being made.
That sometimes people really do try to deflect from, excuse, ignore or otherwise cover up stuff doesn’t help :P.
* e.g. in the form of strawmen
…and for balance, given the discussion of bias, here is a beauty from the other side!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-oKTvZY_Oo
[Scientists will this week issue their starkest warning yet about the mounting dangers of global warming. In a report to be handed to political leaders in Stockholm on Monday, they will say that the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation have now led to a warming of the entire globe, including land surfaces, oceans and the atmosphere.]
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/sep/21/climate-change-ipcc-global-warming
I have a post up on the German election.
… which Psephos can have to himself, if that indeed is the way it pans out.
….and a couple of space videos as I head off to bed.
What the moon would look like if we could see it rotate:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNUNB6CMnE8
Time lapse of the Earth from the ISS:
http://www.youtube.com/user/Bitmeizer?feature=watch
Enjoy and good night!
Nighty night.
jackol@816:
[An excellent MP should be able to stay in parliament for as long as they retain the support of their electorate.]
Actually, if your point is valid, then an utterly worthless MP — a living, breathing offence to the achievements of civilisation — should be able to remain an MP for as long as they retain the support of the electorate.
I assert not quite the opposite: no person — regardless of their worthiness as ethical or intellectual exemplars or the potential for them to garner the support of people — ought to be able to remain an MP indefinitely. That anyone should do so shows the system has failed and is merely a tool for an elite.
It seems the polls close at 6pm, which is 2am here. I’ll see later if I feel like staying up that late!
[no person — regardless of their worthiness as ethical or intellectual exemplars or the potential for them to garner the support of people — ought to be able to remain an MP indefinitely. ]
Why not?
The West has reported 8 Boats, but just 1 since blackout.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/19045081/boat-tally-rises-to-eight-since-poll-day/
I do hope Labor people here are not going to veer off to the left on unauthorised boat arrivals now that we are no longer in government. Stopping the boats was Labor policy in government and it is still Labor policy in opposition. The only difference we have with Abbott is on how to achieve this agreed objective. If you don’t agree with that, join the Greens. And since we did a pretty lousy job of stopping the boats, we’re in no position to be too critical.
[I do hope Labor people here are not going to veer off to the left on unauthorised boat arrivals now that we are no longer in government.]
I was pleased to hear Burke yesterday remind viewers that if the coalition continued to implement the arrangements Labor had put in place recently, it would take effect. At least the party is standing by the agreement it brokered with the PNG government, and to regional processing arrangements.
As for Abbott, he promised to stop the boats. There’s no harm in continuing to remind people of that promise.
We are if the Libs fail to stop the boats. They have consistently said they will stop the boats. Failure to do so is a broken promise.
And since we did a pretty lousy job of stopping the boats, we’re in no position to be too critical.
other than that it has been the Coalition’s principal policy along with abolishing Carbon Pricing.
Psephos:
[Why not?]
I believe in social inclusion, inclusive governance, empowerment, that sort of thing. I’m an egalitarian and hate the concept of heroes. Humanity must strive towards its ideal condition, IMO.
[They have consistently said they will stop the boats. Failure to do so is a broken promise.]
We said that too.
I think we proved pretty comprehensively that stopping the boats is not easy. I don’t think Abbott’s solutions will work, but ours didn’t either.
[I believe in social inclusion, inclusive governance, empowerment, that sort of thing. I’m an egalitarian and hate the concept of heroes. Humanity must strive towards its ideal condition, IMO.]
And all that hot air overrides people’s right to elect whomever they want to represent them, does it?
I think we proved pretty comprehensively that stopping the boats is not easy. I don’t think Abbott’s solutions will work, but ours didn’t either.
My feeling is that people did not think that Labor could stop the boats but that Coalition could. If the Coalition Government does not succeed than it mayl be seen as being a greater failure than Labor’s.
[My feeling is that people did not think that Labor could stop the boats but that Coalition could. If the Coalition Government does not succeed than it mayl be seen as being a greater failure than Labor’s.]
That may be so. But it will not become us to crow too loudly about it.
The reasons Gillard was disliked… in order:
1. She lied about the Carbon Tax and gave a hand over heart promise not to introduce one under a government she led. She should have told the Greens to go jump when they demanded one
2. She had no mandate. Won less seats than the coalition and had to hold onto power with a rag tag team including 2 conservative independents who betrayed their electorates. It was clear from the election Aussies were wanting change
3. Over promised an under delivered. Promised to stop the boats, increased boat arrivals from 2900 a year under Rudd to 25,000 a year under Gillard. Promised on over 50 seperate occasions to post a budget surplus, delivered a $30 Billion Dollar deficit instead. Promised to fix the mining tax, promised $2 Billion from the tax… delivered a measily $150 Million.
4. Knifed Rudd for her own personal gain without letting him go to an election and letting the people decide his fate. Let the faceless men pull her strings and call the shots.
5. Was all over the shop on policy… stands for nothing, believes in nothing, just an inconsistant bunch of brain farts put together and passed off as policy.
That may be so. But it will not become us to crow too loudly about it.
It is all in the timing.
[We are if the Libs fail to stop the boats. They have consistently said they will stop the boats. Failure to do so is a broken promise.]
Well Labor have had 6 years, how bout giving the Coalition a bit longer than 5 days?
If the boats can’t be stopped except at great expense, it will mean that the right’s position is no more practical or realistic than the left’s, even less so, perhaps.
[If the Coalition Government does not succeed than it mayl be seen as being a greater failure than Labor’s.]
Esp after the fuss and carry on they’ve made about boats for the best part of the last 5 years.
I continue to fail to understand why people care so deeply about something that has zero impact on their lives and constitutes less than a tenth of a percent of what the Immigration department is responsible for. How did this become such a big issue it is seen as necessary to insult Indonesia over some brain fart designed to get sexy headlines rather than actually deal with the issue, which I don’t think many people are interested in doing
[I continue to fail to understand why people care so deeply about something that has zero impact on their lives and constitutes less than a tenth of a percent of what the Immigration department is responsible for.]
25,000 people by my calculations is now around 12.5% of total immigration to this country, slightly higher than your 0.1%
At what point do you decide it’s a problem BTW? 50,000? 100,000? 200,000?
Seems like a really stupid idea to sit back and do nothing and let the problem fester don’t you think?
[I continue to fail to understand why people care so deeply about something that has zero impact on their lives and constitutes less than a tenth of a percent of what the Immigration department is responsible for. ]
The principle at stake is Australia’s right as a sovereign state to decide who we will accept into this country, whether as a migrant or a refugee, and who we won’t, and our right not to have our migration policy dictated to us by criminal gangs.
[Mike Carlton
Now this is INTERESTING. @gordonthomsonci is a unionist and councillor on Christmas Island. And he’s counting the boats.Follow him, eh ?]
Dempcracy@ Work re Green vote
_______________________
Your statement that the Green vote halved is just wrong
In the HoR the Green vote fell from 11.6% to 8.5%…hardly halved as you said in you post
stick to the facts and don’t let you bias show
Tisme, the problem that is *festering* is in other countries.
Psephos:
[And all that hot air overrides people’s right to elect whomever they want to represent them, does it?]
Hmm … for Psephos, social inclusion, inclusive governance, empowerment, egalitarianism and humanity striving towards its ideal condition is all ‘hot air’.
This tells its own tale of the condition of the ALP. For me, the right to vote is merely the most fragile, halting, modest allusion to the empowerment of humanity and the approach of each of us towards our possibility. It’s a means to an end in a form that symbolises the end. Yet in the end, it’s mere means.
victoria:
I wondered if that person was actually a CI resident.
Fran, sometimes you play up to the IPA stereotype of a silly lefty so perfectly I begin to suspect you are actually Tim Wilson having us on.
Besides which, you didn’t answer my question.
[Tim Burrowes @mumbrella 12m
Revealed for the first time: News Corp’s Australian newspaper revenues fell by $350m – three times more than Fairfax http://mumbrella.com.au/news-corps-australian-newspaper-revenues-fall-350m-three-times-fairfax-179273 … ]
With no more ‘Labor chaos’ to sell papers, where to now?
Ah, so “someone please think of the children!”. My point is the hysteria is driving sub rational and reasonable and disproportionate responses to the “problem”. And Sean I have to disagree with your calculation as there are only 20000 humanitarian visas granted each year, not all, or even most, are given to those who arrived by boat.
Psephos
[sometimes you play up to the IPA stereotype of a silly lefty so perfectly I begin to suspect you are actually Tim Wilson having us on.]
Wilson is an airhead. He doesn’t have this in him. You don’t suspect this at all, and of course, you know from our discussions, that this can’t be true.
You may regard equaity and empowerment as ‘silly leftism’ but that simply expresses your preference for elite rule.
[Besides which, you didn’t answer my question.]
I believe I did, but if I have missed one, please specify it.
[how bout giving the Coalition a bit longer than 5 days?]
Wot, excuses already???
Obama care operates from Oct 1st
_________________
recently visiting the USA I was astounded at the virulent attacks on Obama’s fairly modest reforms of health care
On Oct 1st some Repugnants want to close down Congress to stop funding for the reforms
A Democrat Congresswoman here outlines many of the virtues of the scheme especially to the 30 million poor people who have have no coveragear the moment…and the many others deprived by the shonky tactics of the insurance companies towards those with chronic ailments
I heard of a friend of friends there… who after a series of cancer operations was suddenly deprived of all her coverage and faced bankruptcy if she needed more care
In some places there is no free vacination program for kids like those we have always had here
The woman in this article says…probably correctly…that the Repugnants are worried that once people see the virtues of Obamacare they will never support the Right in it’s efforts to destroy the scheme…just as Howard and Thatcher never dared wipe out local Health Care schemes…because they are popular
Again the sort of Baby Health Centres which have always operated here giving free expert aid and advice to parents of new borne tinfants are unknown in much of the USA and
parents have to see a pediatrcian for such advice and care .
Under Obamacare these would be funded and vacinations made free
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2013/09/19/wasserman_schultz_on_obamacare_once_people_receive_benefits_theyre_not_going_to_want_to_let_it_go.html
confessions
Wonder if Morrison will arrange for this person to be censored
Psephos
“The principle at stake is Australia’s right as a sovereign state to decide who we will accept into this country, whether as a migrant or a refugee, and who we won’t, and our right not to have our migration policy dictated to us by criminal gangs.”
We haven’t lost the right. The gangs are dictating anything to us.
The problem is about ‘Optics’. It’s because it looks weak or some other wangery. And the only reason it is an issue is because the Coalition made it one. It’s inflamed a Nationalistic fervor, which will wane when the Labor Party finds a more macho one to replace it with or the boat arrivals slow by themselves.
In reality it’s a trivial problem that should cost us almost nothing and give us the benefit of people eager to make a living in Australia. It’s a damn shame people make out this is some sort of attack on our national identity. Appeals to this sort of Nationalism are pretty low.
Sorry that previous post should read
“The gangs aren’t dictating anything to us”
Wonder if Morrison will arrange for this person to be censored
Mike Carlton asked that very question:
Mike Carlton @MikeCarlton01 10m
It will be interesting, won’t it, to see if that odious twat @ScottMorrisonMP tries to silence @gordonthomsonci on his boat reporting.
Scarpat
Hmm. I had not seen the follow up tweet from Mike Carlton. We are on the same page….
victoria:
Otherwise, if their identity isn’t known, will the OO try to out them?