Yet another review of late counting, together with a few other things:
• With McEwen continuing to slip from the Liberals’ grasp, the only remaining lower house seat in doubt is Fairfax, where Clive Palmer received a very handy fillip yesterday when provisional votes pushed his lead out from three to 98. Follow the action here.
• Then there are the Senate races in Western Australia and Tasmania, which are unlikely to become clear until the below-the-line data entry is completed and the button pushed to calculate the outcome (there’s a dedicated thread for Senate counting here, although it’s not doing much business). In the former case, there are probably two seats which hinge on absurdly trivial combinations of micro-party votes and whether they work to the advantage of Australian Sports Party candidate Wayne Dropulich – the fates of Labor and Greens incumbents Louise Pratt and Scott Ludlam as much involved as those of Dropulich and the other potential micro-party winner, Zhenya Wang of the Palmer United Party. The early test for Dropulich is whether he stays ahead of the Rise Up Australia party (0.29%) after his own votes (0.22%) are supplemented by preferences from Australian Voice (0.09%), which has been touch-and-go but has improved for Dropulich on today’s counting. As TruthSeeker observes, Dropulich then needs for the current 183-vote lead of Australian Christians over Shooters & Fishers at Count 21 to hold, which it may not do when below-the-line votes are taken into account. Failing that, Dropulich could be saved if, at Count 19, Help End Marijuana Prohibition failed to hold its present 117-vote lead over the Animal Justice Party, for reasons which would do your head in. On any scenario in which Dropulich wins, the other seat looks set to go to Scott Ludlam of the Greens. If he fails, Zhenya Wang will be joined by Louise Pratt rather than Ludlam, as the Palmer United Party’s direction of preferences to the Greens ahead of Labor would no longer be a factor.
• For Tasmania, Kevin Bonham has the various scenarios neatly laid out in a flow chart, two of which (the final seat going to third Liberal Sally Chandler or Jacqui Lambie of the Palmer United Party) are rated more likely than the others (the win for Robbie Swan of the Sex Party currently projected by Antony Green’s calculator and, with a particularly small chance, a win for Family First). So far as the projection of Antony Green’s calculator is concerned, the trend of counting is towards Robbie Swan of the Sex Party in his fight to stay ahead of the third Labor candidate at Count 21. He took the lead on Tuesday, and it has since gradually opened to 382. However, Bonham’s rough calculation is that it will need to be more like 800 to save him from below-the-line vote leakage. Of the many absurdities in this state of affairs, I have two favourites. One is that the Liberals need the Labor vote to be as high as possible to help ensure Swan’s exclusion, which presumably means Liberal scrutineers are fighting with Labor ones to ensure potential Labor votes are included in the count. The second, noted by Kevin Bonham, is that voters confusing the Liberal Democrats with the Liberals is actually to the Liberals’ advantage, as they have various paths to victory which involve the Liberal Democrats staying ahead of the Palmer United Party or Family First, while their own vote total is essentially academic at this stage.
• Australian Workers Union national secretary Paul Howes was thought by many to have jumped the gun yesterday when he refuted media speculation he might replace Bob Carr in the Senate, given Carr is yet to announce any intention on that front. However, the universal expectation that it will be so is indicated by jockeying to fill the spot. Troy Bramston of The Australian reports that Carr wishes to be succeeded by Graeme Wedderburn, who has been his chief-of-staff both as Premier and Foreign Minister. However, it is today reported that state secretary Jamie Clements has called for the position to go to Deborah O’Neil, who lost her seat of Robertson at the September 7 election, pleading affirmative action. Graeme Wedderburn held senior positions with Westpac and Origin Energy following Carr’s retirement as Premier in 2005, before being lured back to the job by Nathan Rees in 2009 in part by the promise of a Senate seat down the track. However, he was denied a vacancy at the 2010 election due to an arrangement in which Matt Thistlethwaite, who is now entering the lower house as Peter Garrett’s successor in Kingsford-Smith, was given a Senate seat to ease him out of the state secretary position.
• At the beginning of what promises to be a bumper season of electoral reform debate, the Electoral Council of Australia and New Zealand offers a paper on Internet voting in Australian electoral systems. A trailblazer on this score has been Estonia, which has provided for voting over the internet at national elections since 2007, and allowed for voting over mobile phones at the 2011 election, at which the overall take-up rate was nearly a quarter of all votes cast. However, simplifying matters somewhat in Estonia’s case is its national identity card. The paper observes that survey research by the Western Australian Electoral Commission found satisfaction that internet voting would be secured had increased from a third of all respondents in 2005 to a half in 2013. Electronic voting more broadly, including “kiosk” voting conducted within polling stations, is spruiked as offering lower costs, improved formality, more accurate capture of preferences (trials with overseas personnel in 2007 found a higher take-up rate for below-the-line voting), and opportunities for assisting vision-impaired or non-English speaking voters.
• I’ve had too little to say on the Labor leadership election process, of which I’m all in favour, but there’s a useful review of the New Zealand and British precendents from David Donaldson in Crikey.
• Six months out from the state election, there was an EMRS opinion poll from Tasmania out yesterday, which you can read all about in the post below.
• Another new post directly below deals with the state by-election for Miranda in New South Wales, to be held on October 19.
Roxanna 2121 previous thread
Yes re new US Ambassador I believe it is right, love it what will Abbott do? 😀
GST cat’s out of the bag
Didn’t take long.
All those farkin eejuts who bought the ‘axe the tax’ mantra are going to be paying a GREAT BIG NEW TAX on everything, and food will be in too. Will it go from 10-12% or 10-15% I wonder?
I’m getting popcorn for this (while it’s still taxed at only 10%).
Al Dente
John Hewson a few months back was urging it to be 15% or even 20%
Al Dente
GST Increase can work either way, as buyer resistance could make any increase rebound by people only buying exactly what they need ,instead of what they can buy.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
This goes to she that there IS a limit to what people will endure.
http://smh.drive.com.au/roads-and-traffic/state-eyes-tunnel-buyback-20130919-2u2mk.html
It will be interesting to see what the government’s reaction to the big Intergovernmental climate change report will be.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/commission-key-to-keeping-public-informed-20130919-2u2l6.html
The Victorian government is on a knife edge.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/daniel-andrews-suspended-from-parliament-for-three-days-20130919-2u1wt.html
A thoughtful article from Waleed Aly.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/abbott-sexism-gibes-miss-the-point-20130919-2u2cb.html
OK Tone, let’s have a shit fight! Kevin Andrews will pitch in and help.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/prime-minister-tony-abbott-flags-challenge-to-act-samesex-marriage-bill-20130919-2u0z0.html
Here’s another shit fight for you, Tone.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/tony-abbott-cant-stop-green-loans-top-lawyer-says-20130919-2u1ip.html
Yes, now all of our information will be processed through Abbott’s Ministry of Information. Note that ManboyHunt refused to comment.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/scientists-say-climate-cuts-leave-public-in-the-dark-20130918-2tzs9.html
Section 2 . . .
Some symbolism from Andrew Dyson.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/andrew-dyson-20090819-epqv.html
A DAVID ROWE CLASSIC. Abbott in his plush club, complete with trophies.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
Cathy Wilcox with a good piss take on the CC pogrom.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
OUCH!!!!! Ron Tandberg with one of his best!
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
BK
hope you are still there Have you heard from Crikey Whitey? I and a couple of other PBers are bit worried. She started a twitter account last week following me, I replied and followed but nothing since, I have tried tweeting her.
And from the Land of the Free –
Some good cartoons on Syrian diplomacy.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/09/19/cartoons-day-diplomacy-syria/
mari
I will try texting her – but her phone was on the blink.
Labor must ensure that Wedderburn is kept out of the Senate. If he succeeded it would mean that since 1977 there would 3 NSW ALP senators who were not party or union officials. A precedent must not be set.
BK
Thank you I am worried about her
Morning all. If Labor is quick, it can gain some political capital out of the Libs breaking some of their impossible promises.
Of course, economically, raising the GST two percent is very sensible, and would solve many problems with state funding.
Published in this article is the Australian Electoral Commission’s reply to written request for Scrutineers to be provided copies of the Below-the-line preference data-files.
There is nothing in the legislation that prevents this information being made available to scrutineers . It is no different then the publication of the progressive results for the House of representatives.
Without access to this information it is impossible to independently verify the integrety of the elections results.
It is akin to shopping at a supermarket and watching good get scanned, without a receipt and a running balance you have no idea of the costs charged are correct
The Australian Electoral Commission’s failure to ensure that the electronic count is open and transparent brings the conduct of the Senate election into disrepute.
Other parties and States have also requested progressive access to copies of the below-the-line preference data files and been refused.
What does the Commission have to hide that it refuses to publish this crucial information?
By not publishing this data in a timely fashion and subjecting it to proper independent scrutiny in a timely fashion leaves the Commission open to allegations that the information recorded on the file may have been changed or altered.
Socrates,
Dunno! Do you really think criticising a great big new tax will resonate with the voters?
The ALP exercise in grass roots democracy is rolling out.
“Albo” address a public forum yesterday and the party faithful last night in a campaign to win support for the ALP parliamentary leadership. The effectiveness of the claimed “democratization” of the party is yet to be seen.
It is one ting to espouse policy generalities and rally the troops it is another to deliver good governance and select the best team for the job at hand. Selecting a leader is minor part.
The new rules come with it risks of catastrophic failure. as we have seen with the Rudd leadership. A party leader MUST at all times command the respect and support of its caucus. A caucus that is not only selected by the party but also endorsed by the electorate in electing its representatives.
Th wounds of division caused by the Rudd team undermining the interests of the Australian Labor Party are not healed. It just say that is behind us and we need to move forward is a denial of justice and recognition of the problem that resulted in what was by all other accounts a good government losing office.
There is a string sense of loss and betrayal and injustice when the Members of the Labor Party have been denied the opportunity to celebrate and recognise the extraordinary achievements of the Gillard Government.
The actions of those in the Rudd camp need to be subject to review and party discipline. To not address this issue only continues to undermine solidarity and unity within the party. The scares will continue to remain and not heal
Both candidates for the ALP leadership have questions holding over them in relation to the downfall of the Gillard government. Turning their back on this chapter of Labor history in the hope of avoiding some pain is not the solution.
We as a party have betrayed not just Gillard but the membership of the party. There are many within the party and beyond that support Gillard and they, like myself, feel despondent that Gillard has been left high and dry in the aftermath of our electoral defeat.
For the party to move on it must acknowledge the events that surrounded the 2010 and 2013 elections and embrace the contributions that Gillard and her ministry brought to the table and the achievements that were made under prime-ministership, Australia’s first female prime minister.
[All those farkin eejuts who bought the ‘axe the tax’ mantra are going to be paying a GREAT BIG NEW TAX on everything, and food will be in too. Will it go from 10-12% or 10-15% I wonder?]
I dunno you are making up the story you tell us.
Barnett isn’t Prime Minister BTW, minor detail
Less than a week and the Liberal party are already advocating backing down on a policy and commitment to not change the GST.
So much for Abbott’s credibility
GG
Alternatively the Labor parliamentary team could say that everything Tony Abbott does is great, and recommend voters re-elect him in three years time. Personally I would go with option A.
[Less than a week and the Liberal party are already advocating backing down on a policy and commitment to not change the GST.]
And by Liberal Party you mean Barnett….
And he said the same thing befre the election….
But he’s not PM, Abbott is….
So Sean, when do you actually run this small business of yours?
This story is not great in the long term, but it will almost guarantee O’Farrell re-election: he is going to fix traffic in western Sydney.
[The green light has effectively been given today for Sydney’s long-talked about $11.5 billion road network, the WestConnex.
Prime Minister Tony Abbott and New South Wales Premier Barry O’Farrell today released details on the start of the motorway.]
In the long term traffic growth will simply fill in the capacity of Westconnex and Sydney will be back to square one. The various rail options NSW State Labor proposed but failed to build would be far better. But O’Farrell will get kudos for doing something, whereas Labor will get the opposite.
As long as he has the strength to get rid of liabilities like Goward, O’Farrell could be premier for a long time. Labor has much better prospects in Victoria, where Napthine is vulnerable, and Qld, where Newman is nuts.
This story highlights why I said Swan’s last budget was his worst: the last quarter saw the largest fall in jobs in 13 years. Unlike the monthly figures, the quarterly trend ones are reliable.
[Official figures show Australia has recorded its largest quarterly fall in employment in 13 years.
Labour-force figures from the Bureau of Statistics show 26,500 jobs disappeared in the three months to August.
The biggest decline was in the retail sector, where 36,600 positions vanished. The figures mean there has been no growth in retail employment in the past three years.
The next biggest declines were in the education and accommodation sectors.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-19/official-figures-show-large-drop-in-quarterly-employment/4969608
I have never seen a government plan to spend so little in an election year as Swan did. Combined with the end of the mining boom, it was a disastrous policy decision. Various Labor staffers and officials, still magining they deserve a job in public life, rather than moving on for others to have a go, are desperate to say the loss was only about Rudd, or only about Gillard. But from Stephen Conroy to the dumbest Back bencher, there were plenty of other contributors to the loss.
Have a good day all. Cats v Hawks should be a great game tonight.
Morning all. I laughed so hard when i read the last sentence of the article.
[Senior Indonesian politicians have launched another broadside at Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s asylum seeker policies, warning him not to be a “cowboy” and saying his policy was “very offensive” to their country’s sovereignty.]
Read more: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbotts-cowboy-tack-riles-indonesian-mps-20130919-2u2lh.html#ixzz2fNWJZTLa
Socrates
Go Hawks
Sean
[I dunno you are making up the story you tell us.
Barnett isn’t Prime Minister BTW, minor detail]
You miss the point!
Hockey said pre-election if the Coalition win government and the states give a reasonable argument for an increase of the GST, it would be a goer.
Hockey said he was leaving it to the states to make the case for change.
so the gst is to rise
the new ambassador whom I hasten to say is very nice person
but abbotts 1st karma ,keep list of his karmas coming
On another point!
It’s not one Indonesian politician speaking out against Rabbott’s asylum seeker policy proposal.
Indonesian parliamentarians are unified in their condemnation.
Aside from the politicians, rumblings are growing within the general population.
victoria
I guess Jakarta wasn’t picking up the phone 🙂
I can’t recall the Oz ever making such excuses for Labor.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/high-dollar-dents-hopes-for-budget-as-stockmarket-surges/story-fn59nsif-1226723158581#mm-breached
I think they, like a lot of people, realise this government is going to be a shambolic dud. how long before Turnbull starts conspiring do you think? He stayed in parliament because he wants to be PM is is gambling on abbott crashing and burning – he has always been a clever punter. Brough and Morrision also keep a batton/cudgel in their knapsacks, as does that dullard Dutton – he’s so thick he sees himself as leadership material. Pass the popcorn – it’s Game of Thrones, only more violent and with much less charismatic dwarfs.
Dee
If team Labor was raising the ire of the Indonesians, our commentariat and the coalition would be reacting at fever pitch
poroti
Indeed. I am still chuckling……….
joe
thinks we are idiots also,,, what he was realy saying
well yes,, wait till after the election mate and you do the running for the gst we will just say you want it
so Barnett has this debt and we have to help wa
people lol
and he was the one that want to strip Tasmania of gst
so we get the last laugh
no wonder billy hodgeman has started his lib campaign here and said nothing
only lib slogans
I bet he new it was coming
so no pension rise
now gst no wonder I took the decision not to travel ,
and our super being stung
also I am not spending only food and other necessities
then Christmas that’s it and the bills
I want to see this gov, on its knees , so if we don’t spend
they cannot make us
these fools want to give stimulus to the economy they put up the gst
economic vandals
that will equal inflation and higher int,
o well after this no one will ever vote for them again
Anthony van der Craats:
* The AEC’s letter to you makes it clear that they are bound by the Act in terms of what information they can supply to scrutineers. So your assertion that they are willfully withholding information which it is within their discretion to give to you is false.
* By what right do you conduct your correspondence with the AEC using ALP letterhead? Did you use ALP letterhead during your campaign to have Senator Furner unseated and his seat given to the Greens?
SF
Good grief. More violent than GOT? Less charasmatic dwarves i can agree with. 😀
Victoria
That applies to ‘anything’ ALP, regardless if good or bad.
As you already know, recent history demonstrates that fact.
Oh, puke.
Not going to dignify this article with an actual quote, but to paraphrase, the argument is that we shouldn’t waste our aid money unless there’s a direct benefit to us in doing so.
Of course, the author kindly points out that if we want to, we can make donations to charities to do meaningless things like saving children from starvation…
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/sorry-kids-to-be-honest-were-not-a-charity-20130919-2u2eg.html
Morning all.
Front page of The West online today:
[Barnett takes GST raise up to Abbott]
Along with other reports of his govt plans to sell state assets in order to repay debt in an attempt to get back the AAA credit rating.
Dee
Too true
zoomster:
Re your mobile not working at home, have you tried diverting your mobile calls to your landline so you don’t miss any?
tony want know what hits him either
leon here suggested the would attach Darwin before years end
not sure about that
but what I would do I was them refuse to speak to him or ask him not to visit,
lol he owns this policy been going on about it for years
I like to see the rusted on lib voters that thought her could walk on water
because god said so,,
what are they going to say about their boy
and rup keeps tweeting more to do yet
so the junos want lift a finger and if we end up at war
what then rup u lose all all
is this karma no 2
Dee and vicy if the ind, where have the same conversation about them coming here we would be the same
this is how thick he
thinks he can order people around in their own country
seen that behaviour over the centuries
was he Napoleon
in his last life
fess
aha! I will give that a go (if I can find my phone, of course….son took it to cricket last week and it hasn’t been seen since…)
Mr Pyne made the comment on the ABC’s Q&A program last night, saying: “There will be no change to the GST in an Abbott government.” –
The Opposition leader said the GST would not change under an Abbott government “full stop”, but he repeatedly refused to take the consumption tax off the table in his planned taxation review.
========================================================
So does that leave the door open for it to happen under a Turnbull,Brough or Dutton Govt?
See more at: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/election-2013/christopher-pyne-raises-bar-for-coalition-on-gst/story-fn9qr68y-1226696098066#sthash.qdcBoTaB.dpuf
Abbott continues to embarrass us internationally. This editorial is from NZ:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/comment/editorials/9186700/Editorial-Ugly-side-of-Aussie-politics
Sept 6 2013
Mr Abbott has also rejected claims he would cut foreign aid with the rate of increase of assistance to be lowered with funds to be diverted to infrastructure.
Read more: http://www.news.com.au/national-news/federal-election/tony-abbott-on-coalition8217s-internet-filtering-policy-mistake/story-fnho52ip-1226712580631#ixzz2fNf6C8gX
[Despite women rising to the top in all walks of Australian life, including briefly the prime ministership, a surprising number of Australian men appear to find women in positions of authority a threat to their masculinity.
It was evident in the male commentariat’s near-universal condemnation of Julia Gillard during the three years she served as prime minister, and it was front and centre again this week when new Prime Minister Tony Abbott announced his Cabinet. Of the 19 positions up for grabs, just one went to a woman, his Liberal Party deputy Julie Bishop.
Here such an imbalance would be unthinkable. No party which showed such disdain for 50 per cent of the electorate would get anywhere near the levers of power. But in Australia, the normally admirable Sydney Morning Herald found the under-representation of women not a matter for concern but a matter of reassurance. Mr Abbott had resisted the temptation to spring surprises in his new lineup and deserved credit for making appointments on merit. However, the paper did note in passing that even the last coalition Cabinet headed by John Howard, a politician from a different era, had contained three women.]
Ouch!
“The Opposition’s plans to increase military and defence budgets instead of keeping their promise to grow our overseas aid spending is short sighted. We know that spending on aid leads to a safer, more stable region.”
“Cutting $4.5 billion in foreign aid would mean that 450,000 lives that Australia had the opportunity to save will now be lost,” said Rev. Dr Enright.
confessions
I am more convinced with each passing day that Abbott is doing precisely what he intended. Having only one woman in his cabinet, being one of them.
2121
Roxanna
Posted Friday, September 20, 2013 at 1:05 am | PERMALINK
There’s a couple of articles floating round Facebook that are concerning
http://theaimn.com/2013/09/19/millions-of-australians-shun-election-day-2013-depriving-new-government-of-legitimacy/
This just makes me furious. Some margins were very narrow and doubtless these people will bitch and moan about the government anyway. And that they didn’t even bother to show I think is contemptible.
http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/business/media-2/press-council-finds-fairfax-fabricated-awu-gillard-stories/
Call me naive, but I would not have expected this of Fairfax. If true, it means that there is hardly any of the mainstream media that can be trusted.
The only bit of good news I heard – and I hope it’s true – is that the new US ambassador to Australia is gay and will be bringing his partner. I hope that sticks in Abbot’s throat. Presumably he wouldn’t have the guts to piss off both the US AND Indonesia.
I posed this late last night just before the new thread was started , and I’m not going to waste It, so I’ve transferred it to here.
2121
Roxanna
Posted Friday, September 20, 2013 at 1:05 am | PERMALINK
There’s a couple of articles floating round Facebook that are concerning
http://theaimn.com/2013/09/19/millions-of-australians-shun-election-day-2013-depriving-new-government-of-legitimacy/
This just makes me furious. Some margins were very narrow and doubtless these people will bitch and moan about the government anyway. And that they didn’t even bother to show I think is contemptible.
http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/business/media-2/press-council-finds-fairfax-fabricated-awu-gillard-stories/
Call me naive, but I would not have expected this of Fairfax. If true, it means that there is hardly any of the mainstream media that can be trusted.
The only bit of good news I heard – and I hope it’s true – is that the new US ambassador to Australia is gay and will be bringing his partner. I hope that sticks in Abbot’s throat. Presumably he wouldn’t have the guts to piss off both the US AND Indonesia.
I posed this late last night just before the new thread was started , and I’m not going to waste It, so I’ve transferred it to here.