The latest EMRS poll of Tasmanian state voting intention, which emerges roughly quarterly, shows little change on a dismal result for the Labor-Greens government in the previous poll in May. The Liberals hold a primary vote lead of 52% (down two points) to 28% (steady), with the Greens up a point to 15%. The poll was conducted Saturday to Wednesday by phone from 1000 respondents. Since the May EMRS poll there have been two ReachTEL surveys which I neglected to publicise, owing to my preoccupation with the federal election. The results after removal of the undecided are as follows:
August 22 Sample ALP LIB GRN Bass 514 23 62 10 Braddon 570 29 60 8 Denison 510 29 41 26 Franklin 515 25 49 21 Lyons 520 23 59 14 TOTAL 2630 26 54 16 June 14 Sample ALP LIB GRN Bass 500 15 63 17 Braddon 483 19 62 10 Denison 468 25 42 26 Franklin 493 24 56 16 Lyons 511 22 57 15 TOTAL 2455 21 56 17
To make good my recent neglect of matters Tasmanian, I’ve put together a poll aggregate for the current term using the 13 EMRS and three ReachTEL results which have emerged over the current term. I’ve made an effort to adjust the results for bias, and in this I’ve been assisted by a significant amount of federal data from Tasmania available for ReachTEL and the opportunity to test that polling against the federal election result. That in turn has enabled me to evaluate EMRS by measuring its results against ReachTEL’s. As those who have carefully observed the numbers above may have surmised, it is calculated that both series appear quite strongly skewed to the Liberals.
If the Liberal bias of the polls is as heavy as the model is making it out to be, their path to majority government is not as clear as the published figures suggests, great as their lead on the primary vote may be. However, there are two strong reasons for caution. First, the bias calculations are off a very shallow base of data, and it might be that the adjustment being made for the dominant EMRS data is excessive. Secondly, measures based on ReachTEL’s federal polling are possibly compromised by the high others result, which ReachTEL had failed to pick, and which may not be such a factor at the state election. At the very least though, the chart is instructive with respect of the shape of the various parties’ trendlines, if not their actual positions.
Much more on this and the general state of play in Tasmania six months out from the state election from Kevin Bonham.