Week two flotsam and jetsam

Another review of the late counting situation, plus the Labor leadership vote, jockeying to succeed Bob Carr in the Senate, and prospects for electronic voting.

Yet another review of late counting, together with a few other things:

• With McEwen continuing to slip from the Liberals’ grasp, the only remaining lower house seat in doubt is Fairfax, where Clive Palmer received a very handy fillip yesterday when provisional votes pushed his lead out from three to 98. Follow the action here.

• Then there are the Senate races in Western Australia and Tasmania, which are unlikely to become clear until the below-the-line data entry is completed and the button pushed to calculate the outcome (there’s a dedicated thread for Senate counting here, although it’s not doing much business). In the former case, there are probably two seats which hinge on absurdly trivial combinations of micro-party votes and whether they work to the advantage of Australian Sports Party candidate Wayne Dropulich – the fates of Labor and Greens incumbents Louise Pratt and Scott Ludlam as much involved as those of Dropulich and the other potential micro-party winner, Zhenya Wang of the Palmer United Party. The early test for Dropulich is whether he stays ahead of the Rise Up Australia party (0.29%) after his own votes (0.22%) are supplemented by preferences from Australian Voice (0.09%), which has been touch-and-go but has improved for Dropulich on today’s counting. As TruthSeeker observes, Dropulich then needs for the current 183-vote lead of Australian Christians over Shooters & Fishers at Count 21 to hold, which it may not do when below-the-line votes are taken into account. Failing that, Dropulich could be saved if, at Count 19, Help End Marijuana Prohibition failed to hold its present 117-vote lead over the Animal Justice Party, for reasons which would do your head in. On any scenario in which Dropulich wins, the other seat looks set to go to Scott Ludlam of the Greens. If he fails, Zhenya Wang will be joined by Louise Pratt rather than Ludlam, as the Palmer United Party’s direction of preferences to the Greens ahead of Labor would no longer be a factor.

• For Tasmania, Kevin Bonham has the various scenarios neatly laid out in a flow chart, two of which (the final seat going to third Liberal Sally Chandler or Jacqui Lambie of the Palmer United Party) are rated more likely than the others (the win for Robbie Swan of the Sex Party currently projected by Antony Green’s calculator and, with a particularly small chance, a win for Family First). So far as the projection of Antony Green’s calculator is concerned, the trend of counting is towards Robbie Swan of the Sex Party in his fight to stay ahead of the third Labor candidate at Count 21. He took the lead on Tuesday, and it has since gradually opened to 382. However, Bonham’s rough calculation is that it will need to be more like 800 to save him from below-the-line vote leakage. Of the many absurdities in this state of affairs, I have two favourites. One is that the Liberals need the Labor vote to be as high as possible to help ensure Swan’s exclusion, which presumably means Liberal scrutineers are fighting with Labor ones to ensure potential Labor votes are included in the count. The second, noted by Kevin Bonham, is that voters confusing the Liberal Democrats with the Liberals is actually to the Liberals’ advantage, as they have various paths to victory which involve the Liberal Democrats staying ahead of the Palmer United Party or Family First, while their own vote total is essentially academic at this stage.

• Australian Workers Union national secretary Paul Howes was thought by many to have jumped the gun yesterday when he refuted media speculation he might replace Bob Carr in the Senate, given Carr is yet to announce any intention on that front. However, the universal expectation that it will be so is indicated by jockeying to fill the spot. Troy Bramston of The Australian reports that Carr wishes to be succeeded by Graeme Wedderburn, who has been his chief-of-staff both as Premier and Foreign Minister. However, it is today reported that state secretary Jamie Clements has called for the position to go to Deborah O’Neil, who lost her seat of Robertson at the September 7 election, pleading affirmative action. Graeme Wedderburn held senior positions with Westpac and Origin Energy following Carr’s retirement as Premier in 2005, before being lured back to the job by Nathan Rees in 2009 in part by the promise of a Senate seat down the track. However, he was denied a vacancy at the 2010 election due to an arrangement in which Matt Thistlethwaite, who is now entering the lower house as Peter Garrett’s successor in Kingsford-Smith, was given a Senate seat to ease him out of the state secretary position.

• At the beginning of what promises to be a bumper season of electoral reform debate, the Electoral Council of Australia and New Zealand offers a paper on Internet voting in Australian electoral systems. A trailblazer on this score has been Estonia, which has provided for voting over the internet at national elections since 2007, and allowed for voting over mobile phones at the 2011 election, at which the overall take-up rate was nearly a quarter of all votes cast. However, simplifying matters somewhat in Estonia’s case is its national identity card. The paper observes that survey research by the Western Australian Electoral Commission found satisfaction that internet voting would be secured had increased from a third of all respondents in 2005 to a half in 2013. Electronic voting more broadly, including “kiosk” voting conducted within polling stations, is spruiked as offering lower costs, improved formality, more accurate capture of preferences (trials with overseas personnel in 2007 found a higher take-up rate for below-the-line voting), and opportunities for assisting vision-impaired or non-English speaking voters.

• I’ve had too little to say on the Labor leadership election process, of which I’m all in favour, but there’s a useful review of the New Zealand and British precendents from David Donaldson in Crikey.

• Six months out from the state election, there was an EMRS opinion poll from Tasmania out yesterday, which you can read all about in the post below.

• Another new post directly below deals with the state by-election for Miranda in New South Wales, to be held on October 19.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,310 comments on “Week two flotsam and jetsam”

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  1. guytaur@194

    confessions

    I believe that it will be Albo. Enough Caucus members with membership seem to be going that way.

    Deservedly or not the tough choices Shorten had to make regarding leadership is costing him.

    Henry Kissinger famously referred to Mao Tse Tung as “Will incarnate.”

    Bill Shorten could quite accurately be referred to as “Ambition incarnate.”

    The idea of Shorten not acting in self interest to further his ambitions is laughable.

    That is not to say that he is incapable of doing things to benefit others as was shown with the NDIS.

    The “tough decisions” were guided by ambition.

  2. victoria
    Posted Friday, September 20, 2013 at 10:45 am | Permalink
    guytaur

    Since the election, the only people still talking about Rudd/Gillard are in this blog. I am heartily sick of it

    ========================================================

    here ,, you cannot change history and we are fighting for our survival I suggest those that don’t want to join the fight go else where

  3. We are living the effects of the ‘Rudd v Gillard’ wars. It is not behind us.

    Because of it, and Rudd’s treachery, we have an Abbott government. You will get heartily sick of that too.

  4. confessions

    I think your fears are correct. Peter Van Omselen has Hunt on his programme today. I did a teach grandma to suck eggs broadcasting two tweets to him.

    “@guytaur: .@vanOnselenP Make sure you ask Hunt how he is going to get independent info on Climate Change. #auspol”

    “@guytaur: @vanOnselenP Make sure you hammer point that independent facts needed 4 debate or you are failing nation & failing 2 do your job #auspol”

    No reply at all. Not the expected snarky do not tell me how to do my job. Very telling I think.

  5. well I see shorten

    as a professional mp

    I see Anthony

    as coming to parliament to make a difference

    and i didn’t know anything about his back ground till to day

  6. guytaur:

    My own view about suitability for the leadership is who can a) oversee and drive party reform, and b) manage Rudd’s inevitable whiteanting.

    We’re not seeing a whole lot of the capabilities of either contender on these fronts. I get the impression that Shorten being from the dominant faction is arguably best placed to leverage party support for reforms. Conversely, because of this, his leadership would inevitably be targetted by Rudd for destabilising.

    It’s a tough choice for members, that’s for sure.

  7. [It was Colon Barnett the WA Liberal Premier not the Labor Govt.]

    I wish you were right, Barnett was driving James Price Point, Labor were driving the timing and the use it or lose it issue.

  8. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@204

    We are living the effects of the ‘Rudd v Gillard’ wars. It is not behind us.

    Because of it, and Rudd’s Gillard’s treachery and political incompetence, we have an Abbott government. You will get heartily sick of that too.

    There, fixed it for you Puff. 👿

  9. Culturally, Australia has their first woman Prime Minister who oversaw the most daring and progressive legislative agenda in decades passed in her parliament, out of politics forever. Meanwhile the man who whitanted her sits on the opposition benches in the new parliament of a reactionary conservative set of males in blue ties, and two sidelined women.

    But it is okay, everything is finally back to normal, everyone stand down, crisis over. Slap another snag on the barbie, maaaate.

  10. Fixed pay has decreased, cash bonuses have risen, with the bosses of Australia’s leading companies still taking home almost 70 times the national average salary.

    Chief executives of the top 100 listed companies earned 67 times the national average in the 2012 year.

    The 10-year trend, however, is much more stark, with executive fixed pay increasing almost three times as fast as inflation since 2002, and nearly 70 per cent faster than average wages growth.
    ===================================================

    but according to the Liberal trolls and the Coalition-of-Four its all the fault of workers getting pay rises and penalty rates….

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/leading-ceos-take-home-nearly-70-times-average-salaries-20130919-2u2m4.html#ixzz2fOGc66wo

  11. At the ALP State Council last night the Right were instructing their rank and file members to support Shorten.

    I assume they are doing likewise in other states.

    So I suppose it’s just as well 95% of the ALP membership doesn’t attend meetings …

    GO ALBO!!!

  12. Puff:

    Have you noticed that Abbott is STILL wearing blue ties? I had thought after the election he’d be allowed to resume picking his own ties again, but it seems not.

  13. WeWantPaul

    Posted Friday, September 20, 2013 at 10:58 am | Permalink

    It was Colon Barnett the WA Liberal Premier not the Labor Govt.

    I wish you were right, Barnett was driving James Price Point, Labor were driving the timing and the use it or lose it issue.
    ————————————————–

    Be good if you could provide a link to comments from Labor that support your claim.

    I can only find those from Barnett and Abbott etc saying use it or lose it

  14. .. for reasons which would do your head in. On any scenario in which Dropulich wins, the other seat looks set to go to Scott Ludlam of the Greens. If he fails, Zhenya Wang will be joined by Louise Pratt rather than Ludlam, as the Palmer United Party’s direction of preferences to the Greens ahead of Labor would no longer be a factor.

    teh main reason in this scenario is due primarily to the distortions in the way the vote is counted. Calculation of surplus transfer value and the segmentation distribution of excluded candidates. The situation where a vote skips and jumps candidates at a higher value then would normally be the case if the vote was redistributed in a single transaction as it the excluded candidate had not stood.

    You can see the same situation by looking at the 2007 Queensland Senate count by excluding all candidates except the last seven standing (3 ALP, 3 LNP and 1 GRN) and recounting all the votes as if the excluded candidates had not stood.

    A reiterative counting system best addresses this issue by removing the above distortions in the way the vote is counted. In a reiterative count Surpluses only are distributed with one single transaction per candidate, no segmentation.

  15. Can’t vouch for this but received it from a friend this morning re Paul Howes:

    [He is after Laurie Ferguson’s seat – Werriwa – it was part of the deal for the pre-selection for Combet’s seat of Charlton…]

  16. mtbw
    No, i am acting like someone who has been writing for two years on this subject, telling people that if Rudd was not stopped we would have an Abbott government.

    Now I am saying that this recent history is too potent to be swept under any carpet.

    If you ever want to see another ALP female PM, for there will not be a Liberal one this century, then the party has to deal with the events of the Gillard years.

    That Rudd remains an ALP member is an anathema. If you think I am the only one who thinks this way because I am the only one raising it on PB, you are mistaken. The ALP has deeply offended some of us, and if anyone thinks that all is fine, guess what, Pollyanna was just a movie.

  17. Yes, the Rudd-Gillard stuff is so tiresome. Stop it now.

    Pick the best available leader and start getting stuck into the terrible Tories.

  18. MTBW

    Howes is staying at AWU. He was talking about Senate rumours but he was plain and in fact blunt that he was staying at AWU in his presser yesterday

  19. bemused@189


    Henry@182

    Just like when Rudd promised he had Julia’s back after coup attempt number two bemused?
    Yeah I believe him.

    Can I have the English translation of this please?

    How about the old fogey translation?
    Ok…Rudd promised after coup number 2 not to challenge again and not only that, anyone who tried to challenge Julia would have to get past him first.
    Capiche?

  20. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@225

    mtbw
    No, i am acting like someone who has been writing for two years on this subject, telling people that if Rudd was not stopped we would have an Abbott government.

    As opposed to an Abbott Government with a much larger majority and an ineffective opposition if Gillard had remained leader.


    Now I am saying that this recent history is too potent to be swept under any carpet.

    If you ever want to see another ALP female PM, for there will not be a Liberal one this century, then the party has to deal with the events of the Gillard years.

    Rubbish!
    Competent women will emerge in the ALP and they won’t be carrying the Gillard baggage.


    That Rudd remains an ALP member is an anathema. If you think I am the only one who thinks this way because I am the only one raising it on PB, you are mistaken. The ALP has deeply offended some of us, and if anyone thinks that all is fine, guess what, Pollyanna was just a movie.

    Tough luck Puff.
    Your problem is a distorted view of events.

  21. Outsider @110 and briefly @138

    You make some good points, esp regarding superannuation concessions, but just to add to them: if Barnett or any of the Premiers feel they need more revenue, then they can always increase land taxes (with first residence exemptions). There are multitude other economic benefits to go with this action, which I’m sure you are aware of.

    Of course, not one of them will do this because it would require making an argument and standing up to some pretty powerful and wealthy vested interests. Plus its easier to go cap-in-hand to the Feds when they are your compatriots.

    I’d be interested to see what other PBers think of this suggestion – raising land taxes to increase State govt revenue.

  22. Henry@228

    bemused@189


    Henry@182


    Just like when Rudd promised he had Julia’s back after coup attempt number two bemused?
    Yeah I believe him.

    Can I have the English translation of this please?


    How about the old fogey translation?
    Ok…Rudd promised after coup number 2 not to challenge again and not only that, anyone who tried to challenge Julia would have to get past him first.
    Capiche?

    I didn’t know you were an old fogey, but I will henceforth make allowance for your obvious signs of senility.

    What is the event you refer to as “coup number 2”?

    You really are rambling.

  23. WOW – I’ve been reading about Greg Hunt our new (anti) Environment Minister.

    If he was merit selected for the role I am having trouble understanding what merits his selection.

    Unless being a lawyer with a degree in International Relations and an Adviser to a Liberal Minister gives him the knowledge or experience in environmental affairs to base the merit selection on.

  24. What is desperately needed is a unified Labor team to take on Abbott and his cronies. i dont care who the leader is, they need to hold this mob to account. Abbott and his crew need to be stopped from implementing their nasty ideological agenda. Abbott is dangerous.
    Enough with the Rudd talk!!!

  25. guytaur

    Posted Friday, September 20, 2013 at 11:18 am | Permalink

    “@TheKouk: The govt just borrowed $800million, 4 year term, interest rate 3.19%.”
    ========================================================

    this can’t be right. The Abbott Coalition-of-Four have been ranting about budget “emergency” and that we had a debt problem and they were going to do something about it.

    Or is this something like the Hockeynomics were you yell and rant about a budget ’emergency’ then lower company tax to reduce revenue to address the problem

  26. bemused, Henry is obviously referring to Rudd, after a failed challenge, stating that he would protect Gillard from any future challenge to her leadership. Can you really not see that or are you just pretending?

  27. As an aside, my youngest works part time in a big chain store close to home. Last night whilst working the duty manager made a comment about Abbott, and my daughter’s co worker said that the duty manager cannot stand Abbott and is still coming to terms with him being PM. My daughter said that she feels the same way. The co worker agreed, and then said, she has yet to meet someone who has anything good to say about Abbott. Cant believe how he and his mob won the election so handsomely.

  28. Abbott’s move to disband the CEFC shows a complete disdain for renewable energy & the 24,000 workers it employs.

    He is creating more unemployment after promising to create 2 million jobs.

    That’s one fcuking big Green Army

  29. Bemused
    You can polish the Rudd turd as many times as you like. Hey, shellac it and spray on some lacquer, but he will still be a traitorous failure who lost the 2013 election after pulling his party down into an losing situation.

    You seem very happy to be in Opposition as long as Rudd has his seat. What you see in him I cannot fathom, but I am not out to change your mind. He must do something for you.

    We will wait and see about the ALP women, they might have learned their lesson, as the Lib women have; anything up to the top job is okay, just don’t covet the throne. Patriarchal inheritance only, okay ladies?

  30. [Pope Francis said the Catholic Church must shake off an obsession with teachings on abortion, contraception and homosexuality or risk the collapse of its entire moral edifice, “like a house of cards”.
    ]

    The Catholic Church has chosen an absolutely outstanding leader in Pope Francis.

  31. Dio

    If the church wants to remain relevant and have authority in the 21st century, it needs to get with the program. I daresay Pope Francis understands this acutely

  32. triton@237

    bemused, Henry is obviously referring to Rudd, after a failed challenge, stating that he would protect Gillard from any future challenge to her leadership. Can you really not see that or are you just pretending?

    So is Henry wilfully misrepresenting an event or is he really senile?

    Gillard was not challenged in June 2013, she called a leadership ballot and lost.

  33. The rate of the GST is fine at 10% but there is a strong economic argument for it to be broadened.

    For a tax to be fully efficient it needs to evenly apply with minimal exemptions.

  34. bemused@233


    Henry@228

    bemused@189



    Henry@182



    Just like when Rudd promised he had Julia’s back after coup attempt number two bemused?
    Yeah I believe him.


    Can I have the English translation of this please?


    How about the old fogey translation?
    Ok…Rudd promised after coup number 2 not to challenge again and not only that, anyone who tried to challenge Julia would have to get past him first.
    Capiche?

    I didn’t know you were an old fogey, but I will henceforth make allowance for your obvious signs of senility.

    What is the event you refer to as “coup number 2″?

    You really are rambling.

    Now bemused, i know you are old and somewhat senile but…
    Shall we say attempted coup number two, when Rudd was embarrassed again by the result.
    No more backstabbing or whiteanting of JG he said, not only that if anyone tries it I will be there to defend her he said.
    Most of us laughed at this, twits like you believed him.
    Now i can’t dumb it down any further for you ok?

  35. [Land tax increases are politically toxic. Just ask Bob Carr]

    Sure, I get that.

    So the challenge is to take the time and make the argument for why land taxes are economically sensible — the politics can be changed.

    Make use of some of rent-seeker-basing rhetoric, esp wrt residential land banking.

    Highlight the numbers of young people who dare not even think about buying a house, due to crazy price increases.

    Sweeten it for the right-wing populists with higher rates for non-resident land owners.

    Point to the high costs of manufacturing here, in large part due to high rents, and to the high cost of drinks and coffees due to the same.

    Compare the effect of raising land taxes on an average family to increasing the GST.

    Trade part of the increase off by actually getting rid of stamp duty on property.

    There are a lot of angles to work with.

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